Wild Card Weekend DFS Cheat Sheet (Updated)
January 3, 2015 | Chet
Welcome to Wild Card Weekend of The Fake Football DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Guru Rich Hribar, Ian Goldsmith and myself, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, and Draftday, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those four. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
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Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
This game features two teams that are headed in opposite directions. Carolina is coming off of four consecutive wins while Arizona has won just two of their past six games after starting the season with nine wins in their first 10 games.
A large part of Arizona’s struggles can be attributed to their offensive ineptitude. There’s not one offensive player for the Cardinals in play this weekend for gamers that isn’t an extreme long play. The Cardinals have scored six offensive touchdowns in the seven games since Carson Palmer was lost for the season, tied with Jacksonville for the fewest in the league.
To compound matters for Arizona, their inability to sustain any form of offense has sapped nearly all of the defensive edge that kept them afloat even when the offense was still pedestrian and not crippled. Over those past seven games Arizona has allowed 147.4 rushing yards per game after allowing 78.5 per game on the ground through their opening nine contests.
Allowing four running backs to top 90 rushing yards over their past five games, this keeps Jonathan Stewart ($6,500 RB8) on your RB2 radar for this week. Stewart’s 484 yards on the ground over the past five weeks were second to only DeMarco Murray in the league. I prefer a player like Joique Bell ($6,600) in his price range, but there’s room for Stewart to be viable in this spot whether or not DeAngelo Williams finally returns. The concern with Stewart is that even in a good game, you’re exposed to getting hallow yardage as he’s not used near the goal line when this roster is full because their quarterback is the best short yardage rusher.
Not only has Arizona struggled to stop backs on the ground, but they’ve had trouble containing Russell Wilson (73 yards in week 12, 88 yards in week 16), Alex Smith (26 yards) and Colin Kaepernick (63 yards) on the ground over the past six weeks. This really looks like a good spot to work Cam Newton ($8,300) into lineups while others use the more attractive volume passers this weekend. Newton closed the season with 35.3, 22.3 and 19.7 fantasy points in his final three games and has rushed for 40 or more yards in seven of his past 10 games.
In the Carolina pass game, it’s really hard to be smitten with Kelvin Benjamin ($6,900) given that he’s topped 60 receiving yards just once over the past five games, but receiver is extremely top heavy this week and WR2 options are thin. I won’t be using him myself; instead I’ll be looking to Greg Olsen ($6,400) in an obvious spot since he’s clearly the best tight end in the player pool this weekend and draws a defense whose susceptibility to the tight end position has been well chronicled over the past two seasons. To close things up, the Panther defense ($5,300) is the most expensive and best option, so shoehorn them in where you can.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
This is the third playoff meeting between the Ravens and Steelers since 2008, with Pittsburgh hosting and winning the previous two. Winning home field for at least one week was huge for the Steelers as they average 32.1 points per game at home this as opposed to 22.4 points per game on the road.
Those wonky splits are in large part due to Ben Roethlisberger’s ($8,500) play as he’s thrown 23 touchdowns to four interceptions at home this season to just nine scores and five picks on the road. Baltimore has struggled in their secondary since losing Jimmy Smith in week 8, but some of those struggles have been masked by them facing Zach Mettenberger, Blake Bortles, Case Keenum and Connor Shaw since Smith’s injury, but Drew Brees, Philip Rivers and Roethlisberger himself lit them up for over 340 yards passing and at least three scores each over that span. Go ahead and fire up Big Ben this week.
Firing up Ben also means his receiving corps is in play and Antonio Brown is a layup as usual. If you just counted his home receiving stats (64/911/10) alone, Brown would’ve finished as the WR20 in PPR leagues this season. For FanDuel purposes, his season low total at home was 16.7 points. You can even kick the tires on Markus Wheaton ($4,900) here if you want a near punt WR3 play, but the target play most will be making is Martavis Bryant ($5,600) given his cost and ceiling since he’s scored once every six targets this season.
Volume should aid all those mentioned because Le’Veon Bell is expected to miss the game with a knee injury. Josh Harris is intriguing at his price point ($5,600) for those looking to save cap space and Baltimore has allowed 4.4 yards per carry to Arian Foster, Lamar Miller, Terrance West and Toby Gerhart over the past four weeks, but there’s not high expectations in using him despite him being a better option than the more expensive Dri Archer ($6,600) who is a liability in pass protection and still a niche player. Pittsburgh also has also brought in Ben Tate, who would likely be only an emergency option, but this is still a mess best avoided.
For the Ravens, Joe Flacco ($8,200) will likely be an overlooked option this week in a good matchup. The Steelers have allowed eight of the past 10 opposing quarterbacks they’ve faced to hit value at this price point (2 X salary), including Flacco in week 9 when he went 30 of 45 for 303 yards and two scores. I do prefer just paying up the extra $100 for Newton or saving the $200 on Matt Stafford in the end, but do expect Flacco to deliver a solid line for those using him.
Steve Smith ($6,400) and Torrey Smith ($7,100) flip flopped games against the Steelers during the regular season, and both are priced in the WR2 range for this week. Smith Sr. has picked things back up in the target department, being targeted 11 or more times in three of the past four games, while Torrey has scored 10 touchdowns since week 6 to the elder Smith’s three. I don’t love either, but given how top heavy receiver is this week, both will find their way into some lineups as a hedge on buying Flacco performing but not fitting him in. Also, don’t completely ignore Owen Daniels ($5,000) if going cheap at tight end, which had 11 catches for 81 yards and two scores combined during the two regular season meetings.
Justin Forsett ($7,000) kind of finds himself in purgatory in terms of pricing this week as he’s sandwiched between Jeremy Hill and Joique Bell. Forsett has cooled down over the past month, rushing for under 75 yards in three of four games to close the season. He also is reliant on scoring from a distance, as six of his eight rushing scores came from 10 yards out or further and he converted just one of 10 carries inside the 5-yard line for a touchdown on the season.
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
This is a week 7 rematch of a game that saw the Bengals muster up just 135 total yards and eight first downs in a 27-0 shutout for the Colts. Things have changed for Cincinnati since that game, getting A.J. Green back and shifting the running game to Jeremy Hill’s shoulders, but outside of Hill, there’s not a lot to be in love with.
Since week 9 (Gio Bernard’s first DNP), Hill ($7,400) led the NFL in rushing with 929 yards on 5.4 YPC with six scores on the ground. Since allowing the 15 minutes of fame to Jonas Gray, the Colts have allowed just 3.8 YPC to a rogue’s gallery that includes DeMarco Murray, Arian Foster and Alfred Morris, so this matchup may not be as soft as it appears. Still, at his pricing, Hill will be the RB1 of choice this weekend. I don’t want to completely ignore Bernard ($6,900) who has been back involved in the passing game the past two weeks (12 receptions for 101 yards) but his pricing makes him extremely hard to use.
Andy Dalton ($7,800) is the cheapest quarterback this weekend not named Lindley, but is nearly just as unusable given the other options at the position. In his three prior postseason starts, Dalton has completed just 56.9 percent of his passes with one score and six interceptions. That and the other high end options at receiver this week also place a yellow light on A.J. Green ($8,500), but Green moves around enough to avoid Vontae Davis and should still find his way to a solid game as long as he passes concussion protocol.
The Colts have been vulnerable to tight ends all season, allowing five or more receptions to eight different tight ends and eight to top 70 receiving yards. Jermaine Gresham ($5,300) did have 10 receptions in the first meeting, albeit netting only 48 yards on those catches, but he’s banged up and is priced in a spot where you can pay all the way for Olsen, go with Witten at the same cost, or just save cap space.
The Bengals have been stingy to opposing quarterbacks over the past 10 games, allowing just 11.4 points per game to signal callers, but some of that is matchup induced to a degree. The matchup isn’t what will push me off of using Andrew Luck, it’s more his price ($9,700). In a week with so many elite receivers in the play pool, I’m more comfortable saving cap space and playing for a quarterback floor rather pursue Luck’s ceiling.
T.Y. Hilton ($8,600) tallied seven receptions for 107 yards in the first meeting between the two clubs, and the Bengals have allowed four 100-yard receivers over the past three weeks with five scores to the position. I won’t run and hide from Hilton, but am more inclined to pay up for one or two of the receivers ahead of him in the player pool.
In that first meeting, Coby Fleener ($5,500) and Dwayne Allen ($5,000) combined for 116 yards on seven receptions, with Allen notching a touchdown. The Bengals have allowed just one tight end to score since that game with no tight end having more than four receptions in a game. Allen is worth kicking around at his cost since you can play for touchdown upside, but Fleener is the second highest priced tight end this week, making him hard to squeeze in.
Believe it or not, but Trent Richardson ($4,500) actually amassed 118 total yards on 18 touches when these teams met earlier, but since Ahmad Bradshaw was lost for the season, Richardson has had double digit carries just once. That makes Dan Herron ($5,400) a solid option for those paying up at receiver this week for their RB2 spot. Since Bradshaw’s injury, Herron has totaled 441 yards on 75 touches compared to the 148 yards on 48 touches for Richardson. The Bengals allow 37.4 fewer yards rushing on the road than at home this season, but Indianapolis ran for 171 yards in week 7, their second highest total of the season.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is one of my favorite teams for fantasy because their ball distribution is so predictably shallow. Detroit has allowed just three teams to rush for more than 90 yards against them this season while Dallas’ season low is 92 yards on the ground, but we know that DeMarco Murray ($9,000) is getting 20 touches this weekend, and with Le’Veon Bell out, he’s the premier running back play even with Suh’s suspension being overturned.
Tony Romo ($8,800) is coming off of his most efficient season as a pro and even bested Aaron Rodgers out in terms of passing points per pass attempt this season (.612). Detroit has allowed 15 or more fantasy points and multiple touchdown passes to five of the past six quarterbacks they’ve faced. I prefer to use Newton, Roethlisberger and even Stafford over Romo when factoring in cost and potential game script, but don’t think Romo will hurt anyone using him this week.
I’ll be getting my piece of Romo in places where I’m using Dez Bryant ($9,100), however. Bryant has scored 39 times in his past 40 games, including a two score game against the Lions last season. Detroit has allowed double digit scoring games to Vincent Jackson, Charles Johnson, Alshon Jeffery, Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson over the past four weeks. Cole Beasley ($5,600) and Terrance Williams ($5,300) are largely avoidable given lack of volume. Jason Witten ($5,400) is worth a nibble for those who don’t pay up for Olsen as the Lions have allowed five or more receptions to an opposing tight end in six of their past eight games.
Matt Stafford ($8,000) has had a deflating season in his first year with Joe Lombardi for fantasy purposes. He has also really struggled on the road, completing just 54.1 percent of passes at 6.3 yards per attempt with a nine touchdowns to six interceptions. That said, his price and matchup still have me intrigued as Dallas have allowed 10 quarterbacks to reach 17 points in a game this season.
His attachment to Calvin Johnson ($9,000) is the other sticking point that is luring me in. The last time these two teams met, Johnson only had 14 receptions for 329 yards. While it would be foolhardy to believe in him replicating that production, he still has the highest ceiling of any receiver in play this week and the game script has potential to equal a lot of volume for the Detroit pass game. You can kick the tires on Golden Tate ($6,800), but he has returned value on that cost just once since week 10, averaging 10.5 points per game since Johnson returned.
The most alluring RB2 this week in terms of pricing is Joique Bell ($6,600), who has returned value at this cost in five of his past seven games, averaging 14.8 points per game over that stretch. Dallas frequently forces teams out of favorable game scripts, holding Matt Forte (13), LeSean McCoy (16), Dan Herron (7) and Alfred Morris (12) all to limited rushing attempts over the past month. Bell has more than two receptions in just four games this season, so there’s reason to pause if you think Dallas run away with the game,
Sample FanDuel Lineups(by Rich Hribar)
Wild Card Weekend for DFS purposes sets itself up for high ownership of Steeler and Cowboy skill players, but I wouldn’t overlook the Ravens passing game and the entirety of the Detroit offense just because they aren’t favored.
Running through the big changes throughout the week, the anticipated absence of A.J. Green due to concussion is the biggest lost for any one team. Mohamed Sanu did notch three top 20 performances in four games with Green out this season, but the one in which he didn’t was when squaring up with Vontae Davis. He managed three catches for 54 yards and still had nine targets, so I wouldn’t complete run away from using him at $6,000 as your third wide receiver. This also opens up a spot for Jermaine Gresham to be used, although he is dealing with multiple injuries.
With Jeremy Hill having a much larger role in the offense this weekend than he had in that week 7 meeting, the loss of Green should point towards Gio Bernard getting a large opportunity to contribute in the passing game. Bernard already has had 12 receptions the past two weeks and is a nice pivot off of Hill for owners in tournaments. There is potential that Hill could succumb to the evil mistress known as game flow if Andrew Luck starts this one hot, but I wouldn’t even be scared away from using both Bengal backs in the same tournament lineup given how much they’ll have to be leaned on.
As expected from early reports, Le’Veon Bell is officially out tonight for the Steelers. His loss has a massive effect on this offense for obvious reasons since Bell has been the key cog to Pittsburgh playing with tempo on offense. In no huddle situations, Bell had the ability to flex out as a receiver if the defense stayed in base personnel or the Steelers could run him if teams went to nickel. His loss opens the door for Pittsburgh to add more wrinkles this week for Dri Archer, but his overall outlook doesn’t change as he’ll be used in niche situations. Although Baltimore has given up some yards on the ground the past four weeks, their front is more than capable of making Josh Harris and the ghost of Ben Tate ineffective. I’m alright with using Harris in spots, but with Dan Herron under his pricing, it’s unlikely he’ll find his way into any of my own lineups.
The other thing being talked up in this game is the weather. With temperatures still in the 40’s and winds still expected to be under 15 MPH, I don’t see any real threats to either passing game even with precipitation all night long. To go a step further, I actually really like the Baltimore passing game a lot in this game with Joe Flacco and the wide receivers Smith in play. While Torrey has all the scoring upside, Steve has the cheaper cost, consistent volume over the past month and the stigma that he’s thrived in big spots. In nine career playoff games, he’s averaged 5.6 receptions for 95.1 yards and totaled eight touchdowns.
I also still like Owen Daniels as the tight end of choice after Greg Olsen this week and Justin Forsett makes for a really good tourney play as well since he’s been reliant on distance scoring and the majority of owners will be paying up from his price point on Jeremy Hill or going the cheaper route.
There are no major changes in the other two games. With Reggie Bush returning to practice this week after missing the end of the game in week 17, it’s hard to use Theo Riddick as more than a desperation play. Matt Stafford, Joique Bell and Calvin Johnson are definitely in play for everyone. Larry Warford is out this week, so that does make Bell more questionable; especially if Detroit falls behind, but Henry Melton is also out for Dallas as a small tradeoff. If you’re really looking for a long play in tournaments, this is game in which Eric Ebron will have an advantage, but he’s too risky for cash lineups. For Dallas, it’s the same usual suspects on offense and although I do like Cole Beasley’s matchup, this is the wrong pricing and scoring system to go to make a play on what is a very low ceiling.
In Carolina, Ryan Lindely gets the start as expected, so fire up the Carolina defense as well as Greg Olsen in every lineup in which they will fit as they are the premier plays at their respective positions. Cam Newton has been hot and has been running frequently so fire him up in spots as well, even in unison with Olsen and the defense. I’ll throw two more tourney option looks your way with Baltimore and Carolina stacks for those throwing dice this weekend.
Sample DraftDay Lineups (by Chet Gresham)
DraftDay Lineup Configurations
With A.J. Green out it’s hard not to go with Sanu at his cheap price and with Dan Herron and Martavis Bryant allows for a pretty balanced lineup. Matthew Stafford isn’t playing that well, but I think he’ll need to throw a lot in this one no matter and Calvin Johnson is who I’m going to put my faith in. Greg Olsen is by far the best play this week at TE, but Miller is the guy I like second most with Le’Veon Bell out. Cam Newton seems pretty safe compared to his usual not safeness and I’m fine using him in cash games and Roethlisberger is my favorite play with Bell out. The weather in the Steelers game is a bit concerning. I’m trying to learn more before making Steelers passing game stacks like this one on the right, which I love.
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Sample Draftkings Lineups (by Ian Goldsmith)
Draftkings Lineup Configurations
I’m providing a cash lineup, but I am personally not playing cash games. Playoff football is so unpredictable and with only four games on the slate, lineup variance is low. There is a much higher chance that your cash lineup will be the same as someone else’s lineup. That being said, onto the lineups!
To me, Cam Newton is the safest play for the price with the running ability he brings. He’s been playing with confidence and I like his chances against the Cardinals, who made Colin Kaepernick look relevant again last week. At RB, I’m choosing to have a short memory. Indianapolis shut out the Bengals earlier this year in one of the oddest games of the season. That will not happen again, especially if Cincinnati focus on the run game all day long, which they should. Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard are both reasonably priced and are relevant in the passing game, which makes a huge difference on DraftKings.
At WR, Antonio Brown is a must, especially id Le’Veon Bell is out. Either way, he is a near lock to get you 20 and scored 34.4 in his second game against the Ravens this year. Beasley is the most consistent sub $4,000 WR on the board, scoring at least 7.1 FP in each of his past six contest. Michael Floyd is the only real reach on this lineup. He has been mediocre all year, but had a huge game last week. He seemed to form a connection with Ryan Lindley, who will be at the helm once again this week for Arizona, barring a miraculous recovery by Drew Stanton.
At TE, Greg Olsen is clearly the safest pick on the board. I’m also using a TE in the Flex. Jermaine Gresham has a fantastic matchup and was the only effective Bengal in the first meeting against the Colts, catching 10 passes and totaling 14.8 FP. At DST, the only option I am even considering for cash games is Carolina. They have the opportunity for a huge game going against Lindley and backup RBs.
Flacco in the playoffs. He has been nearly unstoppable in his past six playoff games; it seems he takes it to a different level at this stage. He gets a first round matchup with his bitter rivals who happen to be very vulnerable to the pass. He scored over 22 FP against the Steelers in their last matchup and has a fantastic opportunity to do so again this week. Vegas isn’t expecting a low-scoring defensive struggle (46 O/U) and neither am I. Flacco will have to pass if the Ravens want to succeed. I’m pairing him with Torrey Smith, who has the biggest game-play ability on the Ravens.
I went cheaper at RB in this lineup to focus on WRs. Bernard is a must for me again. His price is reasonable and he is the top pass catching back in Cincy. On the other side of the ball, Daniel Heron has the chance for a nice game against a defense that was ranked 6th worst against the run this season. I expect him to be a big focus for the Colts this week. At WR, you fade Brown at your own risk. He is unstoppable and is by far the top play on the board, in my opinion. With him, TY Hilton has huge upside with Luck throwing him the ball. He basically rested all of last week against Tennessee and will be ready to rock this Sunday.
Filling out the roster, TEs are a focus for me this week. Not only to they provide safety, but they provide upside. Gresham, like I stated before, has a great matchup and has had success against the Colts this year. If AJ Green has to sit, then he will be needed that much more. Heath Miller has been quietly very consistent and has scored in double digits in four of his past six games. At DST, the Cowboys are my top tournament team. The only thing I trust Matt Stafford to do is be error prone in big game situations. The Cowboys will be pumped at home and will take advantage of any mistake he makes.
Updated Playoff Tournament Lineup
With the news that Le’Veon Bell is out, Pittsburgh will likely have a harder time running the ball. Baltimore was the fourth best run defense in the NFL during the regular season and allowed Bell only 79 combined yards in two games this year. If the Steelers want to win, they need to take advantage of the Ravens’ very beatable pass defense. Baltimore allowed the third most FP to opposing WR on the season; In Week 9, they allowed Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton to combine for an almost unbelievable 68.7 FP. While that number may be hard to replicate, 50 FP is certainly an attainable number in a game in which Roethlisberger may have to pass the ball 40+ times to win.
If A.J. Green is indeed out as expected (he is currently doubtful for Sunday’s game), I’d be shocked if Cincinnati didn’t focus on pounding the ball with their two talented RBs. Hill and Bernard are perfect compliments; the former is the Bengals’ primary running threat out of the backfield whilst the latter is an incredible pass-catching threat. They have combined for 35.4, 41.8 and 44.5 FP in their past three games. If they are both utilized as they should be, then they could be in for another huge game. In Cincy’s loss to Indy earlier this year, they rushed the ball a combined 14 times. If that happens again, the Bengals can say goodbye to the next round. Hue Jackson is too smart not to have learned his lesson.
Jermaine Gresham is questionable, but he did practice on Friday. The Bengals need him this weekend, especially if Green is out. He caught 10 passes in the first matchup between these two teams and should be one of the primary focuses of the passing game once again. On the other side of the ball, I still think TY Hilton is in for a big game. While Cincy has been decent against the pass this season, great receivers can beat them. Just look at Antonio Brown in last week’s AFC North title tilt. Hilton had over 100 yards in the first matchup and could easily do so again. This combination has forced the DST spot to be a bit riskier. The Cowboys have been playing phenomenally, but are still risky against a potentially potent offense in the Detroit Lions. If you want to be safer and use the Panthers, you could downgrade Gresham to Owen Daniels or Martavis Bryant to Cole Beasley.
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
If the Matchup Machine isn’t sortable for you, here are the same stats in Excel that are sortable: Week 17 Sortable Matchup Stats
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
|DEP||Running Backs||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Att||Yds||YPC||RuTD||Rec||Target||Yds||RecTD||Tot Yds||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
|DEP||Tight Ends||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
|Defense||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Sack||Int||Fum Rec||Pts Allow||FP/%DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
|New England Patriots||IND||$3,200||$8,650||$4,900||7||1.8||1||0.9||27.9||2.188||0.809||1.429|
|Green Bay Packers||@SEA||$2,900||$8,400||$4,700||5.3||2.6||0.4||0.4||23.8||1.828||0.631||1.128|
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.