Week 9 DFS Value Picks
November 5, 2016 | Ian Goldsmith
Chalk Value Plays
Charcandrick West vs Jacksonville
Charizard. Charknado. Whatever your nickname for West, the fact of the matter is that he is the clear #1 back and will be in line for at least 20-25 touches this week against the Jaguars. I almost feel bad for the Jags, but then I remember I’m a KC fan, so I’m rooting for a 45-0 shutout (especially since I am using the KC DST everywhere). If West doesn’t top 100 total yards and a few catches, it will honestly be quite a shock. Of course, 90% of players will have him, just like Booker last week, so he’s a better bet in cash games where you don’t need differential.
DraftKings – $4,400; FanDuel – $5,600; FantasyDraft – $8,800; Yahoo! – $19
Dak Prescott at Cleveland
A matchup against the Browns is always going to put you on the fantasy map, especially if your price is low. Admittedly, Dak’s price is a bit too high on Yahoo! and FanDuel for me to consider him a true value play there, but on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, he continues to hover at a low price. While this matchup screams for Zeke to run for 200 yards, Dak does have Dez back, which will help solidify an already firm floor. I love rolling him out in cash games this week, though I will be looking at riskier guys like Foles and Tannehill for bigger upside in GPPs.
DraftKings – $6,100; FantasyDraft – $11,300
Johnny Holton vs Denver
Who? If you don’t play on FanDuel, then you may very likely have zero idea who Johnny Holton is. So, for you folks, let’s lay it out. He’s a WR on the Raiders, far behind the likes of Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Seth Roberts, and Andre Holmes. Yes, a WR5. In a matchup against Denver. So, what’s the catch? On FanDuel, he costs $0. Nothing. Zilch. Nada. Yes, it’s a pricing mistake, but not one that will be corrected. Because of this, you can make a roster with Aaron Rodgers, Zeke Elliott, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown if you want.
There are two big questions, of course. 1) Will the upside from all of those big name players be enough to counteract the likely 0-2 FP you will be getting from Holton? If you used a chalk lineup last week with Holton, you would have been hurting big time and likely not cashed anywhere. Say that you need 120 to hit cash on FanDuel this week. If that’s the case, in a regular lineup you need to average 13.33 FP per player to hit that number. If you roster Holton, you need each of your remaining players to hit 15. For a guy like Rodgers, that’s probably a no-brainer, but what if just one of your studs fails to do what they are supposed to do? 2) What will his ownership be? Everybody has perfect information on the pricing. So, I know that you know that Holton is $0. How will that alter the way I’m playing the game? If I’m in a cash lineup, this is going to make me more likely to roster Holton because I have faith in big name players like Rodgers. If, however, I’m entering a tournament, then rostering Holton becomes a much dicier proposition. If I roster him, I’m almost certain not to win the GPP because I’m losing out on the upside of a cheap player such as Tyreek Hill. If I do use him and all the studs go off, then my likelihood of winning a huge prize diminished because there is a very strong chance that several other users will have the exact same lineup.
I think Holton becomes valuable in GPPs if you are treating the GPP like a cash game. If you are just wanting to cross over the cash line, then use Holton. If you are aiming to win the GPP, then perhaps use a different stack. With guys like Charcandrick West $3K less than the top RBs (and with similar upside) and Donte Moncrief at $6,100, the idea of using Holton to win a GPP becomes a pretty poor scenario.
I will say this; in the four games Holton has actually played, he has at least one carry in each game. If he, for any reason, was to break a few tackles….wooowee!
FanDuel – $0 (yes, ZERO)…Do not use him on any other site!
Other Value Plays
Donte Moncrief at Green Bay
This is one of those rare cases where a player is much cheaper on FanDuel and Yahoo relative to DraftKings and FantasyDraft. Enjoy it, as he is a mere $6,100 on FanDuel and a “you are an idiot if you don’t use him” $16 on Yahoo. Moncrief and West are two prime examples of solid, underpriced players, which takes away luster from using a guy like Holton, even if he’s priced at $0.
FanDuel – $6,100; Yahoo! – $16
Ryan Tannehill vs NY Jets
While my colleague Doug Shain isn’t thrilled about using Tannehill, he too recognizes that there is a matchup to exploit here. The Dolphins are going to be fresh coming off the bye week, are playing at home, and get a Jets secondary that has been absolutely shred this season. New York ranks 9th worst against QBs and 3rd worst against WRs, which is making me salivate over a Tannehill/Landry stack, depending on the site. If you are more daring, pairing him with a deep threat like Kenny Stills could pay off even more in GPPs given the discount. Either way, I’m comfortable enough with the matchup to use Tannehill in cash games, as shocking as that sounds.
DraftKings – $5,600; FantasyDraft – $11,200
Nick Foles vs Jacksonville
Well, well…looks who’s back to fantasy relevancy…at least for one week. Foles stepped in last week after Alex Smith went down and played admirably, completing 11 of 22 passes for 223 yards and 2TDs. He’ll get a chance to at least match those numbers in a plus mathup this week against a crumbling Jaguars team. My only worry in this game (and it is legitimate) is that we see the Kansas City defense and Charcandrick West each score a couple of TDs, leaving little for Foles to do other than manage the game. Think Alex Smith against the Raiders in Week 6. He played a hell of a game, but didn’t need to throw TDs. Keep that in mind when rostering Foles. He’s a GPP play only for me mainly because I think the Chiefs are going to be so dominant this week in every other facet of the game.
DraftKings – $5,200; FanDuel – $6,800; FantasyDraft – $10,200; Yahoo! – $26
Darren Sproles at NY Giants
Sproles is still more of a shot in the dark. Ryan Mathews is still the “lead” back, but does that really mean anything considering how Sproles can play when given touches? Why do the Eagles continue to use a plodder like Mathews when Sproles gives you way more per touch? Ugh, who knows. Any Philly fans out there want to explain? The uncertainty of Sproles’ use makes him nothing more than a deep GPP play, but one who could turn your lineup into a winner. I prefer him on full-PPR sites.
DraftKings – $3,900; FanDuel – $4,800; FantasyDraft – $7,700; Yahoo! – $15
Tim Hightower at San Francisco
As with Sproles, Hightower is another player whose workload will be questionable. However, it seems that he will be getting at least 10-15 touches judging by what Sean Payton has been saying. When Mark Ingram fumbled last week, Hightower came into the game and ran the ball an incredible 26 times in a win against Seattle. He obviously won’t hit that number this week, but I’ll gladly take 10-15 touches against a running “defense” like San Francisco, who has given up a ridiculous 1,136 yards on the ground to RBs in only 7 games. If Chip Kelly played Gandalf, his favorite quote would be “You shall pass! Come on over, Mr. Balrog!”
DraftKings – $4,000; FantasyDraft – $7,800; Yahoo! – $14
Good luck in Week 9, everybody!!!
OK, enough jibber-jabber. Below you’ll see four tables with my picks for the week. If you have any questions at all, hit me up in the comments or, preferably, on Twitter @ianrgold. I respond more quickly there.
Value Pick Tables
Picks are provided for DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyDraft and Yahoo!. There are two picks for each position, and one DST. Yes, I’ll even throw in kickers for FanDuel (well, ONE kicker). Why? Because I want to lose brain cells. The prices for each pick are loosely capped at 50% above the minimum value for that position. So, for instance, I’ll try to limit prices for running backs on DraftKings to $4,500. For QB’s, I’m limiting picks a bit further to 40% (if I didn’t, then this week I’d have my pick of 19 QBs!). Of course, there may be some weeks that few usable players fall under these thresholds, in which case I’ll up the limit a bit. These are arbitrary numbers of course. Everyone has their own idea of what a value pick is.
In the tables below, you’ll see a few columns. The basics are Player, Team, Opponent, Type of Game (Cash, GPP, or both), and Salary. In addition to these, you’ll see the following columns:
% of Total $: This is simply the percentage of your salary cap that a particular player takes.
Cash Points: This is a loose estimate of how many points a player needs to hit a value multiple for cash games. This varies from site to site. On DraftKings, for instance, you will generally want your team to score at lease 3 FP per $1,000 in salary (on Yahoo!, it’s FP/$1, not per $1,000). We’d call this a 3X multiple.
GPP Points: This is a loose estimate of how many points a player needs to hit a multiple in GPP games. On DraftKings, for instance, I generally aim for a multiple of 4.
Of course, it is always better to aim for more than these multiples. You don’t always need 4X value in order to cash on DraftKings, but you usually need more than that if you want to win one of the huge tournaments. Yes, there are some weeks where you can win tournaments with under 200 FP, but those weeks are few and far between. If everything goes right, players can score 300 fantasy points – a multiple of 6! So, aim for more. The economist in me always screams “more is better” (Also, doesn’t The Economist in Me sound like a terrible title for a porno? “Hey baby, want to come back to my place and see my demand curve?”). Good luck this week!!!
|Player||Team||Opponent||Position||Type||Price||% of Total $||50/50 Pts||GPP Pts|
|Player||Team||Opponent||Position||Type||Price||% of Total $||50/50 Pts||GPP Pts|
|Player||Team||OPP||Position||Type||Price||% of Total $||Cash FP||GPP FP|
|Player||Team||Opponent||Position||TYPE||Price||% of Total $||50/50 Pts||GPP Pts|
Week 8 Recap
Top 3 Picks of Week 8
- C.J. Fiedorowicz – All he needed was to catch a TD. He came through as hoped.
- Devontae Booker – He was as chalky a play as they come, but sometimes that’s what you need to win. Ge gave us all a scare with an early injury, but came back in and easily exceeded value.
- Derek Carr – Though only a “value” on FantasyDraft, he came through in a massive way with over 500 yards passing. Yowzas!
Worst 3 Picks of Week 8
- Brock Osweiler – In the best possible matchup, he played terribly. So much for Detroit being a panacea for QB ailments.
- Matt Asiata – He wasn’t terrible, considering how poorly the Vikings played overall, but I was expecting a bit more.
- Gary Barnidge – How did he score so little when McCown did so well?
Week 8 Results