Week 9 DFS Cheat Sheet (UPDATED)
November 2, 2014 | Chet
Welcome to Week 9 of The Fake Football DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Guru Rich Hribar, Ian Goldsmith and myself, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, Fantasy Elite and Draftday, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those four. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
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Sample FanDuel Lineups(by Rich Hribar)
FanDuel Lineup Configurations
Cash Lineups/ Thursday Night
The first cash lineup is going back to riding a big time gunslinger and Luck has been a fantasy juggernaut so far on the season, throwing for 300 or more yards in six consecutive games, something Peyton Manning didn’t even do as a Colt. Nearly all of the top flight running backs have poor paper plays this week, and while the DeMarco, Le’Veon and Jamaal’s of the world aren’t matchup dependent, I’m more comfortable paying for a quarterback this week to go along with two backs that favorably priced in high scoring offenses. If you want to have some fun and mix and match some of these guys to get yourself a share of the New England/Denver game, Luck and Hilton can be swapped out for Manning/Sanders or you can take out Kelce for Reed to upgrade to Sanders over Hilton. The Chiefs defense has been on fire their past three games and with the turnover factory known as the Jets and Mike Vick coming to town, they’re going to be in most of my lineups this weekend. If you do need to free up some funds, San Francisco ($5,200) and Cleveland are nice options.
The second cash lineup is saving a few pennies at quarterback to upgrade the tight end and RB1 positions. This lineup has a balanced receiving unit that will be fed targets, as well as a pass catching back in Ellington, who has been seeing all those touches Arians said he would.
Just like above, I’m really all in on buying Mark Ingram as a strong play again, especially at RB33 pricing, the Carolina on the Saints side given Drew Brees’ recent road struggles while outdoors and their passing game ambiguity week to week. I am intrigued by how New Orleans finally used Brandin Cooks as a real receiver last week instead of a glorified running back, but I’m not ready to believe it’s a weekly occurrence. I don’t mind him as a tourney play, however at $6,400.
On the Panthers side, I’m more than comfortable letting someone else chase Cam Newton’s big game as he’s had only one top 10 scoring performance all season. Greg Olsen is always a rock solid option, but he’s in salary purgatory this week ($7,200) as I’d rather pay up for Gronk or just save a little salary and play for Graham’s ceiling. Kelvin Benjamin ($7,000) is definitely in play for those who want to use as his volume has been steady and he carries a high ceiling.
Last week, I really wanted to pick on the Jets with Kyle Orton, but backed off begrudgingly. Alex Smith doesn’t have the ceiling as Orton did because he doesn’t come attached to a lid popping receiver like Sammy Watkins, but he should have reasonably low ownership and comes with the bonus of using his legs. He has a shot to triple salary, even if 30 points may be out of the question. I like using Bowe as a stack for him, but I’d much rather use Kelce since he’s so cheap and plays at a position where he can be a hammer. I’m going with using Lynch and Dez this week as two plays on the recency bias of them not living up to hopes a weekend ago, as both have fantastic matchups once again this week. Here’s where I’ll squeeze in Benjamin and make a play on the Seattle defense and special teams stack at home.
Cash Lineup with Gio Out
If Gio sits Sunday out, you have to pounce on Hill at just under nine percent of your cap. Grabbing him at that cost affords you a lot of roster leeway, no matter how you choose to spend it. I’m using it to pay up at quarterback, and with wind likely playing a factor in New England, I trust Luck to keep his hot streak going against the Giants. I’m going to use the rest of the saved cash to pay up for Lynch, who is a consistently strong performer at home and pairing Luck with his top option Hilton. If you want to mix and match RB/WR at the top, you can move chairs easily if you have Hill in your lineup. Rounding out the rest of the team with more boring, stable producers, this is a nice balanced attack for cash games.
Sunday Early Only
With so many of the league’s best fantasy offenses removed from the player pool due to bye or time slot, the early only Sunday slate is another enjoyable slate. With so many high end quarterback options removed, my favorite remaining ones are Ryan Tannehill and Carson Palmer. Tannehill has developed a nice floor with his recent rushing output (35 or more yards in four consecutive games). With this team, I’m rolling with Palmer, however, who has had a bankable passing floor (sixth of all QB in passing points per game at 18.8) and a matchup against the Cowboys who have allowed four of the past six signal callers they’ve faced to reach 18 fantasy points or more.
At running back, it’s hard to ignore Jeremy Hill and his $5,200 price tag. Jacksonville has been stout on defense over the past month, only allowing three offensive scores to opponents, but three of those games were at home. Even if Hill posts a pedestrian final line, his usage overall as well as the goal line in a game that should have favorable game script is more than worth the squeeze at his cost. Using him allows to fit in a legit RB1, and with DeMarco Murray having one of the toughest matchups of the day, Arian Foster is the next best option (who has actually outscored Murray over the past four weeks by 20 plus points).
At receiver, Jeremy Maclin is tied with Antonio Brown with the most top 10 scoring weeks on the season and has double digit targets in every game. We’re getting a piece of Tannehill by using Mike Wallace in a matchup in which Jason Verrett and Brandon Flowers are both ailing and going with the safe floor of Andrew Hawkins to round out this unit. At tight end, Jason Witten and Travis Kelce are my favorite plays in this time slot, so if you want to go with a higher priced WR3 or Tannehill, you can fit Kelce in. I’m not concerned about Brandon Weeden throwing to Witten against the Cards, who struggle with tight ends and will be focused on defending the run and perimeter options in the passing game.
Sample DraftDay Lineups (by Chet Gresham)
DraftDay Lineup Configurations
We just saw what Ben Roethlisberger did to the Colts and if Vontae Davis is out again I like Eli’s chances of getting half of what Big Ben got, which is 250 yards and three touchdowns. Can you believe that’s half? Kaepernick has already lit up the Rams for 300+ and 3 TDs in St. Louis and now he’s coming off a bye playing them at home. I like his chances. Shady McCoy has been playing much better, which happens to coincide with his o-line getting healthier. Houston is no pushover, but they give up 150 total yards per game to opposing running backs and they especially have trouble with receiving backs. Alfred Morris is a scary start when Washington won’t have a lead, but with the way Teddy Bridgewater has been playing, I think they can keep this one close enough for Alf to get his carries and at his cheap price tag he won’t have to go off to be a help to your team. Sanders of course looks like chasing points, but the Patriots are much worse against #2 receivers with Revis usually taking on the #1 guy and you know Manning will get his somehow. Denard Robinson is only a WR on DraftDay, but either way I like him against a Cincinnati team that is giving up 110 yards and a touchdown on the ground to opposing running backs. Dwayne Allen faces a Giants team that has given up four touchdowns in the last two games to tight ends. The Giants are much stronger against the outside receivers and Allen has six touchdowns in eight games so far. Andrew Hawkins faces a Jags defense that has gotten better against the run, but still has trouble against receivers. Football Outsiders has them ranked 31st and PFF has them 29th against the pass. Steve Smith Sr. is due to get back in the end zone and the Steelers poor pass defense should oblige. Washington takes on Bridgewater and showed that they can get to the QB Monday night against Dallas. For their price I like the value.
Thur/Sun Cash Lineup
Cam Newton played fairly horribly against Seattle, but Seattle’s defense is still good,even if their fantasy defense isn’t. The Saints have one of the worst pass defenses in the league. He is also back to running and that’s all I need to feel good about his chances, knowing he’ll run and facing a poor pass defense. Carson Palmer has been a steady producer since returning from his shoulder problem and hasn’t dipped below 17 DD points all season. Lynch burned me last week, but for his price and matchup I just can’t quit him. Seattle should get right against the Raiders. DeAndre Hopkins should get plenty of work against the Eagles, who put points up even when playing poorly. The Jets have been getting absolutely destroyed by tight ends this season. They’ve given up nine touchdowns in the last six weeks to tight ends and Kelce is due. The Saints should be able to score and keep Cam throwing, KB is his guy. The Panthers continue to be beat on defense and Cooks looks great against the Packers Sunday night. I think he builds off that game and continues to show he’s not just a PPR player.
I’d say the only real question mark on this team is Rainey, but with 1 pt. PPR I think his floor is good in the receiving game. Charles Sims could split carries with him, but I just don’t see Sims taking over enough to kill Rainey’s value at this price. Otherwise these are all safe plays.
Sample Draftkings Lineups (by Ian Goldsmith)
Draftkings Lineup Configurations
If AJ Green is back this week, then he is simply a steal at $6300. People may shy away from him as this is his first game back off injury and may only be at about 80%. Pairing him with a cheap Andy Dalton against an overmatched Jaguars’ defense could pay off big. Ingram has another great matchup against the Panthers who, despite stopping Marshawn Lynch, have been horrid against the run. Gronkowski is an almost must start. I love pairing him here with Julius Thomas. The Portland State product has had a couple down games, but the Pats are built to stop WRs, not elite TEs. I say he has a resurgence here. Seahawks have looked mediocre on D, but a home matchup against the Raiders will solve any woes they have been experiencing. Patterson and Cooks’ game-breaking ability is too hard to ignore. Cooks is especially tempting at only $4100. At that price, he will be in a lot of my Thursday lineups.
While the prices across the board are much higher on DraftKings this week, there are still some solid values to be had. Palmer has not had a game below 17 FP. He has been playing well of late and I like him to easily hit that number again this week. Bradshaw has been one of the most consistent RBs all season. Hillman has taken advantage of the holes that Peyton Manning’s elite play creates. He’s another must have cash play at his price. Mike Evans has caught at least 4 passes every game that he has played this year. Hopkins has at least 5 receptions in 5 of his past 6 games. Witten has not been a huge factor this year, but he is involved enough to pay off his cheap price. Additionally, he gets a choice matchup against Arizona’s TE defense. Love the Bengals at home against the Jags. Always, ALWAYS start defenses against the Jags.
Monitor Alex Smith’s health this week. If he’s a go, then I love him against a Jets’ defense that can’t stop anybody in the passing game. The pairing of Smith and Bowe will be an under-owned pair, which could produce a big return. Michael Floyd should bounce back from his big, fat ZERO and produce this week against Dallas. Vereen is hit-or-miss as any Belichick RB tends to be. That being said, when he’s on, he’s ON. His upside is huge and I want him here. Denver’s front seven can get to QBs quickly, which should lead to Brady needing to find Vereen early and often on screens. Steve Smith is a true tournament play, but we’ve seen his upside. He had a solid line against the Steelers in Week 1 and is always a threat for a deep score.
Fantasy Elite Drafting Ranks
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
If the Matchup Machine isn’t sortable for you, here are the same stats in Excel that are sortable: Week 9 Sortable Matchup Stats
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
|DEP||Running Backs||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Att||Yds||YPC||RuTD||Rec||Target||Yds||RecTD||Tot Yds||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
|DEP||Tight Ends||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
|Defense||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Sack||Int||Fum Rec||Pts Allow||FP/%DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
|New England Patriots||IND||$3,200||$8,650||$4,900||7||1.8||1||0.9||27.9||2.188||0.809||1.429|
|Green Bay Packers||@SEA||$2,900||$8,400||$4,700||5.3||2.6||0.4||0.4||23.8||1.828||0.631||1.128|
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.