Week 9 DFS Cheat Sheet: FantasyDraft and Yahoo! (UPDATED)
November 6, 2016 | Ian Goldsmith
Welcome to Week 9 of the 2016 The Fake Football FantasyDraft and Yahoo! DFS Cheat Sheet!
. With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Doug Shain, Chet Gresham, and Justin Bales we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FantasyDraft and Yahoo!, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news. And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our a sheet from last season to see what you get.
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Cheat Sheet (UPDATED)
Even though they’ve tried to play coy with Ben Roethlisberger’s status, all signs continue to point toward him playing.
Carlos Hyde will be out this week according to Ian Rapoport. DuJuan Harris is the only player I’d play in his place, but he coould lose carries to committee members.
Dwayne Allen should play. He’s not a recommended play.
The Saints will likely ride the “hot hand” at running back. Hightower and Ingram have stand alone value this week, but they are both volatile. Ingram is still the better player, so I like his odds to put up better numbers, but Payton sure seems to love Hightower. Tough call.
Spencer Ware is out with a concussion, while Jamaal Charles is out for the season. That puts Charcandrick West as the lead back in a good matchup at home. He’s a no-doubt play this week in DFS and redraft.
Carlos Hyde practiced in a non-contact jersey this week, so his status is still very uncertain. If he can’t go, DuJuan Harris is expected to be the lead back, but he doesn’t have a solid grip on the job with Mike Davis and Shaun Draughn also in the mix.
Corey Coleman and Terrelle Pryor will play without restriction. Cody Kessler gets the start and the Cowboys slow games down to a snails pace. I don’t love their upside for DFS, but like Pryor more than Coleman in his first game back.
Jerick McKinnon looks like he will play, but he is dealing with a high ankle sprain and Matt Asiata isn’t going anywhere. There’s not a clear play between these two this week.
Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin will both play, but Benjamin’s injury could sap him of some of his explosion. I’d prefer Williams in DFS.
Hunter Henry won’t be able to go, so Antonio Gates should see a few more targets and is in a good matchup. His upside isn’t great because he’s really just a shell of his former self, but he can still box out with the best of them, so receptions and possibly touchdown(s) should be in play.
LeSean McCoy plans on playing and should be able to go for the Monday night game against Seattle. It’s not a great matchup, but he should be in your redraft lineups. I’d stay away from him in DFS except in a contrarian GPP.
DeMarco Murray got full practices in Thursday and Friday and is good to start as usual. The Chargers run defense has been fairly stout this season, so I’m not going all in on Murray for DFS, but there’s no reason to not play him in redraft.
Delanie Walker is a game-time decision. He missed Friday’s practice after suffering a groin injury Thursday. It may have been extremely minor and he’ll be good Sunday, but it is no doubt worrisome.
Ben Roethlisberger should play against Baltimore and he helps the offensive players without a doubt. His health and recent poor play on the road makes him a little iffy as a solid quarterback play though.
Steve Smith is questionable to play against Pittsburgh, but did get a limited and full practice in this week. It would be surprising not to see him and for bye week stretched teams, I would have no qualms playing him.
T.Y. Hilton practiced in full Thursday and Friday and gets a nice matchup against the Packers weak secondary.
Randall Cobb is a game-time decision, but the prevailing winds have him sitting this week. If he were to end up going, the matchup is great and I could see starting him, but be ready for a zero if he is used as a decoy.
Ty Montgomery is expected to play after dealing with an illness and with Cobb hobbled and James Starks still out, he should be in line for a bunch of work as a running back and receiver. He has an extremely high floor in PPR leagues this week.
Sammie Coates is no longer wearing the extra protection on his hand and Roethlisberger should be back, so his upside just skyrocketed.
Devontae Booker will play after being taken off the injury report. He gets a good matchup with the Raiders and after a good, but not great game last week, I expect him to have better running lanes against the Raiders than he had with the Chargers last week.
Dwayne Allen practiced this week and should be ready to play against the Packers. Jack Doyle is still going to see targets, so Allen will likely need a touchdown to bring value.
Michael Thomas missed part of practice on Friday, but isn’t listed on the injury report. He gets a great matchup with San Francisco and is a good DFS play.
Sample FantasyDraft Lineups
FantasyDraft Lineup Configurations
Let this be your weekly reminder that we are NOT trying to win a cash game. We are merely trying to finish in the top 50% of the game we are playing. This means we are looking for players with a high floor and consistent production rather than a high ceiling (no Kenny Stills or Tyreek Hill here). Generally I treat my cash game QB like I treat my cash game pitchers in baseball; go with the best one and fill in from there. This week I thought I’d be a lot better off going with Josh McCown and his relatively safe floor instead of spending up at the position. I did this because I don’t feel like the RB position is very strong for cash this weekend, and I wanted to pay up for the two best at the position (Bell and Zeke). Doing this didn’t leave me a ton of money for WR but I was able to find some sneaky target hogs in the mid-range to help me out (Mike Wallace with nearly 11 per game over his last four and Donte Moncrief with 9 targets last weekend). Davante Adams is less sneaky, but when a guy is averaging 13 receptions a week over a two week period you kind of have to consider him in cash games. I used Theo Riddick as my 2nd Flex play because I think he’ll be highly involved in the passing game for DET, and you may have heard, I like me some targets. Jimmy Graham was averaging 9 targets in the three games prior to his Week 8 abomination. I’ll trust the larger sample size on that one. I don’t want to mess around on defense so I’m taking my #1 team, the KC Chiefs.
As has been the case over the last few weeks, I’ve started my GPP lineups by finding four QB/WR (or TE) stacks that I wanted to use and then build around that. Also as I’ve been doing recently, I filled in the rest of my lineups with my favorite plays that I highlighted on the cheat sheets. Rather than go through all the players individually (you can see my comments about them in the cheat sheets), I’ll take a moment to make a quick comment or two on each lineup and what I was thinking when I built it.
– ARod lineup: Yee haw! That’s the first thought that went through my mind when I looked back that his lineup. I went super high end with Rodgers, Jordy, Zeke, and Bell. I got to use my super duper punt play in Tyreek Hill, and I still had room for my sneaky target hogs in Moncrief and Wallace. All I need is to hit about 10 points on Gates and I think this lineup could be huge. I chose DEN over KC because of their ability to hit pay dirt. I want to shoot for the defensive TD. This by far my favorite lineup.
– Dak lineup: I feel that this lineup is safe, but it doesn’t have the Yee Haw factor as much as the Rodgers lineup. I do like the matchup better for my TE, and my Sproles/Riddick tandem should have no problem exceeding value due to their high volume of receptions. I’m clearly counting on a big game from Jordy Nelson at his (higher than I’d like to pay in non-stacking situation) price.
– Foles lineup: This lineup was all about loading up on high-end WRs (OBJ, Jordy, Dez) while still not killing myself at RB. I’m taking a huge chance with Henry, but as long as Murray is active his ownership should be down and a big game (I think they do a full split this weekend) moves me up a GPP quickly. If Foles ends up not starting for KC, then I can easily shift to McCown with the $400 I have left over.
– Mariota lineup: I’m usually a little wary with a QB/TE stack rather than a QB/WR stack, but there’s just nothing on TEN I like at the WR position. Mariota has been so good against these poor defenses, and at some point Walker is going to bust out for a 7-110-2 type of game. The matchup is right for that this weekend. I’ve surrounded them with upside in Bell, Jordy, Dez, and Wallace. Once again I’m relying on Sproles to continue to get about 80% of the snaps for PHI at the RB position, and, even if he doesn’t, I’m hoping that Melvin Gordon’s surprising consistency balances that out.
I treat my cash game QB like I treat my cash game pitchers in baseball; go with the best one and fill in from there. This week that guy is Aaron Rodgers. He’s got the great matchup, he’s got no RB to steal yards from him, and he’s got a seemingly endless supply of WR to throw to. With Charcandrick West so cheap and big value at WR (more on that in a bit), I can still spend up on ARod and get the RB that I need to make this lineup work. I don’t feel like the RB position is very strong for cash this weekend and I wanted to pay up for the two best at the position (Bell and Zeke). Doing this didn’t leave me a ton of money for WR but I was able to find some sneaky target hogs in the mid-range to help me out (Mike Wallace with nearly 11 per game over his last four and Donte Moncrief with 9 targets last weekend). Ty Montgomery is less sneaky but he’s the de facto RB1 in Green Bay and that means a lot of touches. Dennis Pitta’s season would look a lot better if he’d score a TD here and there. He’s got the targets though and I do love me some targets for my cash game players. He doesn’t need to do much to hit value at his low price. I don’t want to mess around on defense so I’m taking my #1 team, the KC Chiefs.
Sample Yahoo! Lineups
Sunday 50/50 (Updated)
Sunday GPP (Updated)
Yahoo! Lineup Configurations
I started this line with a Thursday night stack. The Bucs are hurting at running back, which means Peyton Barber should see plenty of carries (Check to make sure Antone Smith is not starting). I also used a Winston/Evans stack, as they get a great matchup and come with as much upside as any stack on the slate. Ty Montgomery is a risky pick because he might not be able to play, but the Packers seem to believe that he can play through the sickle cell disease. Remember that Yahoo! is a late swap site, so you can always switch to another player if Ty is out again. Theo Riddick and Donte Moncrief returned from injuries last week and looked outstanding, but their price tags have not yet caught up to them. Coby Fleener is a tight end with a ton of upside, but he also is risky. The Saints should score a ton of points in this matchup, though. The Lions defense isn’t elite, but they get a great matchup and are extremely cheap. Last, Jay Ajayi fits into the lineup, and he has been on fire recently.
This lineup began with a stack of Green Bay. As I mentioned above, Ty Montgomery comes with some injury risk, so he needs to be monitored throughout the week. Rodgers and Adams are healthy, though, and they have been playing extremely well recently. I opted to stay cheap at running back with Riddick and Sproles, who are both receiving backs with big roles in their offenses. Sproles may take over the RB1 role for Philly. He already seems to have taken over that role, so any change in the depth charts is more or less a formality at this point. Moncrief is a bit too cheap, and he should have no problems hitting value at his price tag this week. The tight ends aren’t great on this slate, so I used Rudolph, who gets a great matchup against the Lions. He does come with a bit of risk, but all tight ends on this slate do. Cooks gets a great matchup against the 49ers, and he has been on a touchdown streak recently. He brings a bit more upside to the team, but he is also fairly consistent. Last, the Ravens defense fits into the lineup, and they are favorites in a game set with a low total this week.
The Cowboys have a high-powered offense, and they get a great matchup against the Browns this week. Prescott, Elliott, and Bryant all have elite upside, and they account for the majority of the Cowboys offense. Once again I used Moncrief, who is too cheap and should be able to hit value. Sproles has a growing role for the Eagles, but he’s still extremely cheap. Jordy Nelson and Amari Cooper have tremendous upside for their ridiculous price tags, especially Cooper, even though he gets a tough matchup. James has touchdown upside, and he’s a cheap option at tight end, though Ladarius Green does have a chance at playing this week, so keep an eye on that situation. Last, the Lions defense fit, and they get a great matchup against one of the worst offenses in the NFL.
Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters. As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience. To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. There are instructions on the first sheet. If you have any questions whatsoever about how to use the optimizer, or if it’s not working for you, e-mail me at firstname.lastname@example.org. I’ll do my best to get back to you right away. If you don’t have Excel 2010 or later, then shoot me an e-mail with constraints you want, and I’ll run it for you. Also, if you have any ideas for things you’d want to see included in future iterations of this, then I’d also love to hear about them! Thanks, and have fun!!
NOTES: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include. DeSean Jackson was a regular when I ran the initial lineups. I left him out given his questionable status, but you could certainly put him back in here when you rerun the models.
If you have any questions at all, shoot me an e-mail at email@example.com. Good luck this week!
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||FanDraf||Yahoo||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Defense Opp FanDraf Yahoo Off Points Sack Int Fum Rec DefTD RetTD FPPG
New England Patriots HOU $7,800 $20 16.9 2 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 8.4
Atlanta Falcons SEA $5,000 $16 21.6 2.6 0.8 0.4 0 0 6.2
Pittsburgh Steelers @KC $5,600 $13 22.2 2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 4.8
Dallas Cowboys GB $5,200 $12 27.0 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
Kansas City Chiefs PIT $6,700 $19 24.4 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0 3.9
Green Bay Packers @DAL $5,500 $13 26.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 0 0 3.2
Seattle Seahawks @ATL $5,900 $16 31.9 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 2.6
Houston Texans @NE $4,600 $10 27.2 1.5 0.1 0.6 0 0 2.5
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART
You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|