Week 8 DFS Value Picks October 29, 2016  |  Ian Goldsmith


 

Chalk Value Plays

Devontae Booker vs San Diego

There is chalk, and then there is Booker, who might as well be the white cliffs of Dover. It would almost be more shocking to see a person not use him this week. With the news that C.J. Anderson has been moved to IR, Booker is the clear cut #1 in Denver and on DFS teams this week. Why wouldn’t he be? He’s run well, can catch passes, and is cheap…really cheap. Put him on your roster and then ask questions, not the other way around.

DraftKings – $3,700; FanDuel – $5,600; FantasyDraft – $8,500; Yahoo! – $17

 

Jameis Winston vs Tampa Bay

Playing at home? Check.

Playing against Oakland? Check.

Still cheap? Yup…on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, at least.

DraftKings – $5,700; FantasyDraft – $11,200

 

C.J. Fiedorowicz vs Detroit

The Houston TE has been one of Osweiler’s favorite targets over the past few weeks. He should continue to get regular looks and gets the bonus of facing a Detroit team this week that has been once of the worst teams against TEs since Week 1. He’s extremely cheap, and relatively consistent with at least 8.5 FP on full-PPR sites in the past four weeks. He doesn’t even have to score to hit value, which is a rarity at this price. Roll with him.

DraftKings – $2,800; FanDuel – $4,900; FantasyDraft – $5,600; Yahoo! – $12

 

 

 

Other Value Plays

Ryan Fitzpatrick at Cleveland

First off, it is insane that he costs $500 more than Winston on DraftKings. Still, pissed-off Fitzmagic should be a good play against Cleveland’s nonexistent defense this week. He’s relatively cheap across the board, though not on FanDuel, where is is inexplicably $7,300. No thanks. Give me Winston for $100 more or Osweiler for $500 less.  Still, I’m going to be using him in lineups given the matchup, especially at Yahoo!, where he is only $26, which is a steal given his potential output. Of course, he could always throw another 6 picks.

DraftKings – $6,200; Yahoo! – $26

 

Brock Osweiler vs Detroit

Speaking of the Wizard of Os, he has what is perhaps the best matchup of the week for any QB. Detroit is already the worst defense against QBs and will be without their top CB in Darius Slay. If there were any week for Osweiler to prove his mettle, it’s this week. He’s oddly a bit too expensive on Yahoo!, where his $29 is only $2 less than guys like Russell Wilson and $3 more than Fitz. No thanks. I’ll happily use him on FanDuel, however, where he is only $6,600 and could easily hit 3X value or more given the matchup. I’d even use him in cash games, which would normally be insane.

DraftKings – $5,400; FanDuel – $6,600; FantasyDraft – $10,600

 

Matt Asiata at Chicago

For those of you playing a slate that includes Monday, then you should strongly consider Asiata. He is the #1 in Minnesota with McKinnon out and gets a decent matchup against the Bears, whose RB numbers look better than they should because they have not faced a ton of top backs so far this year. This is more of a volume play than one based on matchup or talent. Asiata isn’t special, but he does have a penchant for finding the endzone…that is, if Sam Bradford can actually survive his broken down offensive line long enough to move the ball. Booker is the better play for a similar price, obviously. Asiata is more of a tournament play for me.

DraftKings – $3,500; FanDuel – $5,600; FantasyDraft – $6,900; Yahoo! – $15

 

Rob Kelley vs Cincinnati (in London)

Want even cheaper? Throw a dart at the fantasy board by using Rob Kelley as he gets the start for Washington with Matt Jones out for the week. If he does well, he could easily take over the #1 RB spot on the team as Jones has proven he is nothing more than average (if that). Again, Booker is (by far) the best play at near minimum salary, but if you need another cheap fill-in to stack WR this week, then consider the former Tulane product.

DraftKings – $3,000; FanDuel – $5,100; Yahoo! – $10

 

Ty Montgomery at Atlanta

Well, he’s not necessarily “value” as in the pricing of the other people in this article, but he’s still way too cheap for his usage, especially on Yahoo!, where is is still only $15. $15!!! He’s had an illness this week and is “questionable”, but come on…can the Packers afford for him not to play? Who is going to be their RB? They’d be better off re-signing Ahman Green than use any of the other backs on their roster. Montgomery plays.

Yahoo! – $16

 

Russell Shepard vs Oakland

I’ve heard almost nothing about Shepard this week. In the shadow of Mike Evans, Adam Humphries, and even Cecil Shorts, Shepard stepped up in a big way last week against the Niners and finished with a very respectable 5/77/1 line. Considering nobody seems to be using him, you could do worse than using him in your tournament lineups as he’ll have that same kind of upside once again against an Oakland team that is ranked 6th worst against opposing WRs.

DraftKings – $3,300; FanDuel – $4,500; FantasyDraft – $6,400; Yahoo! – $10

 

Good luck in Week 8, everybody!!!

 

OK, enough jibber-jabber. Below you’ll see four tables with my picks for the week. If you have any questions at all, hit me up in the comments or, preferably, on Twitter @ianrgold. I respond more quickly there.

 

Value Pick Tables

Picks are provided for DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyDraft and Yahoo!. There are two picks for each position, and one DST. Yes, I’ll even throw in kickers for FanDuel (well, ONE kicker). Why? Because I want to lose brain cells. The prices for each pick are loosely capped at 50% above the minimum value for that position. So, for instance,  I’ll try to limit prices for running backs on DraftKings to $4,500. For QB’s, I’m limiting picks a bit further to 40% (if I didn’t, then this week I’d have my pick of 19 QBs!). Of course, there may be some weeks that few usable players fall under these thresholds, in which case I’ll up the limit a bit. These are arbitrary numbers of course. Everyone has their own idea of what a value pick is.

In the tables below, you’ll see a few columns. The basics are Player, Team, Opponent, Type of Game (Cash, GPP, or both), and Salary. In addition to these, you’ll see the following columns:

% of Total $: This is simply the percentage of your salary cap that a particular player takes.

Cash Points: This is a loose estimate of how many points a player needs to hit a value multiple for cash games. This varies from site to site. On DraftKings, for instance, you will generally want your team to score at lease 3 FP per $1,000 in salary (on Yahoo!, it’s FP/$1, not per $1,000). We’d call this a 3X multiple.

GPP Points: This is a loose estimate of how many points a player needs to hit a multiple in GPP games. On DraftKings, for instance, I generally aim for a multiple of 4.

Of course, it is always better to aim for more than these multiples. You don’t always need 4X value in order to cash on DraftKings, but you usually need more than that if you want to win one of the huge tournaments. Yes, there are some weeks where you can win tournaments with under 200 FP, but those weeks are few and far between. If everything goes right, players can score 300 fantasy points – a multiple of 6! So, aim for more. The economist in me always screams “more is better” (Also, doesn’t The Economist in Me sound like a terrible title for a porno? “Hey baby, want to come back to my place and see my demand curve?”). Good luck this week!!!

 

DraftKings – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionTypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Jameis WinstonTBOAKQBCASH/GPP$5,700 11.40%17.1022.80
Brock OsweilerHOUDETQBCASH/GPP$5,400 10.80%16.2021.60
Devontae BookerDENSDRBCASH/GPP$3,700 7.40%11.1014.80
Matt AsiataMINCHIRBGPP$3,500 7.00%10.5014.00
Quincy EnunwaNYJCLEWRGPP$4,800 9.60%14.4019.20
Russell ShepardTBOAKWRGPP$3,300 6.60%9.9013.20
Gary BarnidgeCLENYJTECASH/GPP$3,300 6.60%9.9013.20
C.J. FiedorowiczHOUDETTECASH/GPP$2,800 5.60%8.4011.20
CowboysDALPHIDSTGPP$3,000 6.00%9.0012.00

 

FanDuel – $60K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionTypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Alex SmithKCINDQBCASH$6,800 11.33%13.6017.00
Brock OsweilerHOUDETQBCASH/GPP$6,600 11.00%13.2016.50
Devontae BookerDENSDRBCASH/GPP$5,600 9.33%11.2014.00
Matt AsiataMINCHIRBGPP$5,600 9.33%11.2014.00
Ty MontgomeryGBATLWRCASH/GPP$6,400 10.67%12.8016.00
Russell ShepardTBOAKWRGPP$4,500 7.50%9.0011.25
Gary BarnidgeCLENYJTEGPP$5,000 8.33%10.0012.50
C.J. FiedorowiczHOUDETTECASH/GPP$4,900 8.17%9.8012.25
Nick NovakHOUDETKCASH/GPP$4,500 7.50%9.0011.25
CowboysDALPHIDSTGPP$4,600 7.67%9.2011.50

 

FantasyDraft – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOPPPositionTypePrice% of Total $Cash FPGPP FP
Jameis WinstonTBOAKQBCASH/GPP$11,200 11.20%16.8019.60
Derek CarrOAKTBQBCASH/GPP$11,000 11.00%16.5019.25
Devontae BookerDENSDRBCASH/GPP$7,300 7.30%10.9512.78
Matt AsiataMINCHIRBGPP$6,900 6.90%10.3512.08
Russell ShepardTBOAKWRGPP$6,400 6.40%9.6011.20
J.J. NelsonARICARWRGPP$6,000 6.00%9.0010.50
Gary BarnidgeCLENYJTEGPP$6,400 6.40%9.6011.20
C.J. FiedorowiczHOUDETTECASH/GPP$5,600 5.60%8.409.80
ChargersSDDENDSTGPP$4,600 4.60%6.908.05

 

Yahoo! – $200, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionTYPEPrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJCLEQBGPP$2613.00%16.2519.50
Josh McCownCLENYJQBGPP$2613.00%16.2519.50
Matt AsiataMINCHIRBGPP$157.50%9.3811.25
Devontae BookerDENSDRBCASH/GPP$147.00%8.7510.50
Quincy EnunwaNYJCLEWRGPP$178.50%10.6312.75
Ty MontgomeryGBATLWRCASH/GPP$157.50%9.3811.25
Gary BarnidgeCLENYJTEGPP$168.00%10.0012.00
C.J. FiedorowiczHOUDETTECASH/GPP$126.00%7.509.00
CowboysDALPHIDSTGPP$115.50%6.888.25

 

 


Week 8 Recap

Top 3 Picks of Week 8

  1. Jack Doyle – Yowzas. Talk about value! Doyle’s huge day made him the easy #1 pick at over 9X value on DraftKings. Methinks more people will know his name now.
  2. Vernon Davis – Not to be outdone, the veteran TE had a very solid day himself, catching all 6 passes thrown his way for 79 yards.
  3. Jacquizz Rodgers – If, for whatever reason, you were afraid to stream RBs against the 49ers, Quiz should have allayed your fears with his monster game.

Worst 3 Picks of Week 8

  1. Titans DST – I simply have not been able to pick good value DSTs this season. It has been the biggest weakness of this article this year.
  2.  Torrey Smith – 1/17. Ouch. He almost single-handedly ruined a few of my lineups. Swing and a miss.
  3. Pierre Garcon – I really though he had been developing a solid rapport with Cousins of late, but he disappeared completely in this game.

Week 8 Results

week7-results

 

FanDuel is back above the Mendoza line, but just barely. QB, RB, and TE all hit big this week, while WR and DST sputtered. Still, all four sites exceeded cash game value, which I’ll take any day.

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