Week 8 DFS Cheat Sheet: FantasyDraft and Yahoo! (UPDATED)
October 29, 2016 | Ian Goldsmith
Welcome to Week 8 of the 2016 The Fake Football FantasyDraft and Yahoo! DFS Cheat Sheet!
. With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Doug Shain, Chet Gresham, and Justin Bales we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FantasyDraft and Yahoo!, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news. And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our a sheet from last season to see what you get.
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Randall Cobb is out. Give Ty Montgomery and Davante Adams a big bump. Jordy Nelson should also see more work, but he will likely be shadowed by Desmond Trufant.
Mike Gillislee will start in place of LeSean McCoy, but Adam Schefter reports they will go with the hot hand at RB.
It appears Lamar Miller will be limited this week, but will play.
Jerick McKinnon has been ruled out for Monday night’s game against the Bears. This will give Matt Asiata the start and push him into fantasy starting lineups. The Bears defense has been decent, but still a less than good group against the run, ranking 20th in DVOA and they are allowing the eighth most goal line looks to running backs this year. He should be in your redraft lineup and is worth a DFS play.
Jamaal Charles is out, but he wouldn’t have taken much away from Spencer Ware anyway. Ware gets a great matchup with the Colts and despite his less that bell cow usage, he’s got tremendous upside in this matchup and is high on my list of DFS plays for the week.
Terrelle Pryor practiced in full on Friday and is no longer on the injury report. He should be Josh McCown’s main target in a good matchup with the Jets. I like Pryor and Gary Barnidge this week for DFS consideration with McCown back from his injury.
Doug Martin is still out and could be out a few more weeks, so Jacquizz Rodgers will get the start once again, this time against a weak Oakland run defense. Rodgers may start seeing fewer carries if they think Martin will be out much longer, but so far he’s averaged 31 touches in his first two starts and even a dip in that number makes him a top play this week.
C.J. Anderson is out for the rest of the regular season, so Devante Booker is next in line and he’s already shown how well he can play in limited work. I especially like his receiving ability and the Chargers have allowed a league high 61 receptions to running backs and they are second worst in receiving yards allowed.
Jeremy Langford is questionable, but should play Monday night in a tough matchup against the Vikings. Add in Jordan Howard and Ka’Deem Casey and you have yourself a situation to avoid like a toxic waste dump littered with zombies.
Martellus Bennett didn’t practice on Friday, but did make the trip to Buffalo. The Friday absence is considered a maintenance day for Bennett and he should play. He’s still startable in most redraft leagues, but I’d probably shy away in DFS.
Lamar Miller is questionable, but hopes to be a “full go” against the Lions. Coach O’Brien says Miller will be a game-time decision, but it does appear he will be able to go and since it is an early game, we will know before lineups lock. In redraft I’d be fine with keeping him in there, but will still be avoiding in DFS.
Donte Moncrief will return this week and he gets a good matchup for his first start back, as Kansas City has allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. This is also a decent boost for Andrew Luck, who makes for an interesting DFS play this week.
Tevin Coleman will not play this week, which will elevate Devonta Freeman into a great role in what should be a high scoring affair. The Packers have been tough on running backs, but haven’t faced too many good ones and Freeman will be heavily involved in the passing game.
Tyler Eifert should play close to a full complement of snaps according to a Bengals beat writer and Washington can be beat by tight ends. Josh Norman looks like he will play, so he could slow down A.J. Green and give Eifert even more looks. He’s risky, but his upside is getting higher.
Dez Bryant is back and will play against the Eagles on Sunday. The matchup isn’t ideal for DFS, but I’d feel fine playing him in redraft this week.
The Bills will be without Marquise Goodwin, but they haven’t added a new wide receiver to their roster, so Robert Woods should make his return to the field after missing last week. It’s not the greatest matchup, but he again will be the No. 1 receiver for the Bills.
LeSean McCoy won’t be able to go against the Patriots so Mike Gillislee will get the start for real this time. He does have some upside and as their every-down back in a run oriented team, his price on DFS sites is low enough for him to be a good cost saver. He also may be a bit contrarian, as there are plenty of good, low cost options at running back this week.
Matt Jones has been ruled out against the Bengals in London, so Rob Kelley will get the start and early down/goal line work, while Chris Thompson works in hurry up and passing downs. Both have startability, but I like Thompson’s upside in PPR leagues the most of the two.
Hunter Henry, Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin will all be able to play in Denver this week. That’s great news for the team, but this matchup is not great news for your teams. All are startable, but I won’t go near them in DFS this week.
Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett both will be able to play in New Orleans after being limited some this week. Wilson is in a prime spot to break out of his injury-induced funk, but Jimmy Graham and Doug Baldwin should be the main DFS plays in the receiving game.
Randall Cobb is in a prime spot to put up good numbers, but has been limited in practice all week with a hamstring injury. With Desmond Trufant on Jordy Nelson, Cobb is a good start, but I do hate dealing with hamstring issues that come up in play. I might boost Ty Montgomery and Devante Adams a bit and use Cobb more in GPPs and of course redraft.
Eric Ebron and Theo Riddick will both be able to play against Houston. I don’t love the matchup for either, but they are there for desperate redraft players. This does help Matthew Stafford enough that I could see throwing him in a GPP to see what happens, but the Texans defense is stout against the pass.
Michael Floyd will be a game-time decision, while John Brown should be able to play. In the end, this will likely help funnel a few extra targets Larry Fitzgerald’s way, which is where I’d lean my DFS hopes on in this passing attack.
Eddie Royal is doubtful against the Vikings.
Cordarrelle Patterson should be able to play and hasn’t been horrible this year.
Bilal Powell is no longer on the injury report.
Dwayne Allen remains out. Jack Doyle will start.
Sample FantasyDraft Lineups
FantasyDraft Lineup Configurations
Let this be your weekly reminder that we are not trying to come in first place when we play in a cash game. We are merely trying to accumulate enough points to finish in the top half of our game. This means that we are going to be valuing floor over ceiling, safety over upside. I’m not sure, for his price, that there is a safer QB this week than Jameis Winston. He’s only had one bad game all year and that was against the best passing defense in the league. Otherwise, he’s been a very steady, sometimes spectacular, QB play. Normally I’d stack a QB and WR in my cash game, but I don’t think that’s necessary this weekend. I’d much rather use high volume RB like David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott at that big price as opposed to a big money WR. There is some value at RB this weekend, but the safer value plays are at WR (Michael Thomas and Ty Montgomery). If I were to spend up on Mike Evans at WR then I’d have to use a Frank Gore or Latavius Murray at RB and that just doesn’t work for me. My other two RBs are Spencer Ware (clearly the top guy in KC and with an outstanding matchup) and Matt Forte (not shockingly, the Jets are good when they feed their stud RB). I spoke about Gore earlier, and one of the reasons I don’t want to use him is that I’m going to be using Jack Doyle at TE and I won’t stack a RB with a WR/TE in a cash game. Doyle has that perfect mix of safety and price that I’m looking for at TE. Obviously it’d be safer to use Gronk at TE, but that would cost me almost double what Doyle costs me and then I’m back to having to find a value RB. I’m perfectly happy with a 5-60 type of game from Doyle for his $7k price tag. As usual, I don’t mess around with my cash game defense so it’s MIN all the way. Don’t get sucked in with the negativity from last weekend. They had 4 turnovers and gave up under 250 total yards to Philly. It was the offense and special teams that lost that game, not the defense. They are still the safest defense you can get for your fantasy dollar.
As I have been doing for the last few weeks, I have decided to focus my GPP rosters on QB/WR stacks and fill in the rest of my lineup with a limited number of players that I wrote about in the cheat sheets. By coming up with a smaller pool of players to choose from, I find that my decisions are a lot easier and my lineups produce more efficiently. I also find that I’m taking far fewer chances with my picks and that has raised the floor of my scores. While it’s not a foolproof plan (thanks Week 7 Terrance West, Torrey Smith, and Hunter Henry), it has been working out more often than not (GPP wins in Weeks 5 and 6). My big QB/WR stacks this week are Fitzpatrick/Marshall, Rodgers/Montgomery, Brees/Thomas, and Winston/Evans. I know that these guys feel pretty chalky (maybe not so much the NO stack against SEA), but I feel like I can make up that ownership difference with some of my other plays. In the long run, I want the best roster I can put together, and if that means I’m using a lot of chalk, so be it.
At RB my rotation includes David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, Spencer Ware, Christine Michael, Frank Gore, and Matt Forte. For the most part I want to use RB at the RB position only this weekend (no FLEX) with so many WR matchups that I like. I’m finding that it’s pretty easy to fit in two higher priced RBs due to the value I’m finding at WR and TE. I know that the matchups aren’t perfect, but at this point I consider DJ and Big Zeke to be totally matchup proof. If I can somehow get both of them into a lineup, I’m going to do my best to get that done. I can definitely see a scenario where both Johnson and Elliott are underowned as the public is going to flock to Michael, Ware, and some of the other cheaper RB. One RB that I don’t have in any lineup, but would use if I wanted to go with an extreme value, is Devontae Booker. I think his time is coming and he’s got a great matchup against SD. Even if he “only” get 15 carries, he can do a lot with them and hit value for sure.
Speaking of that WR and TE value, I see a lot to like with Michael Thomas, Ty Montgomery, C.J. Fiedorowicz, and Antonio Gates. I’m not scared off by the Seattle and Denver matchups for Thomas and Gates since neither should be matched up against the strengths of those defenses. Gates, in particular, doesn’t need to do much of anything to hit his value. I can see both of those guys getting 10+ targets. Fiedorowicz has gained the trust of Osweiler and, despite Osweiler’s struggles, has hit value each of the last 3 weeks. Ty Montgomery is a RB1 priced as a WR3/4. GB secretly loves using him out of the backfield and as long as Rodgers keeps playing well with him there, there’s no reason to change what’s working. He’s the GB WR I trust most to continue his production. His upside might be limited but he’s a 7 catch, 120 combined yards kind of a play. If he gets into the end zone he’ll be a huge value.
My main focus this weekend, besides my stacks and high end RB, is getting at least one big boy WR into my lineup (and in most cases two). My high end rotation will consist of T.Y. Hilton (better matchup than you think), Mike Evans (beast with a great matchup), Brandon Marshall (facing CLE), and DeAndre Hopkins (facing DET, #32 pass defense). I can see all four hitting for 100 yards and a TD this weekend given their matchups.
Unlike my cash games, I don’t mind getting cute with my GPP defenses. I would rather spend my money on a real player rather than a defense so I’m more focused on using teams like the Chargers (BOSA!), Cowboys (much better defense than you think and Wentz is finally looking like a rookie), and KC (Luck gets sacked a ton).
FYI, this is Ian (@ianrgold), not Doug, who is enjoying a well-earned vacation. I just wanted to let you know up front, because everyone builds lineups slightly differently, even though Doug and I do love a lot of the same players this week (mainly Winston, Booker, David Johnson, Montgomery, and Fiedorowicz).
Andrew Luck is quietly having an incredible season, even behind one of the worst offensive lines I’ve ever seen. He is averaging 300 yards and 2 TDs per game and is setting a career high in completion percentage, to boot. The only game in which he’s scored below 18 FP was in Week 2 against Denver, who doesn’t allow any QB to do well against them. 18 FP is nearly 1.5X value for his salary, which is too low at $12,700. Normally a stout defense, Kansas City has given up 265 yards and nearly 2 TDs per game to opposing QBs. Yes, they do have an incredible 10 INTs, but INTs are only -1 on FantasyDraft, so don’t even worry about the inevitable 1 or 2 picks by Luck. When Justin Houston gets back, I’ll stop recommending you start top-5 QBs against KC. Until then, they aren’t as scary as you’d think. Love Luck this week.
For the rest of the team, I’m going heavy at RB and TE. Spencer Ware and Devontae Booker are musts. Charles is out for KC, so Ware should see 20-25 touches against one of the worst run defenses in the league. He’ll be in almost every lineup I make. Booker is only $7,300 and will also get 20-25 touches this week with C.J. Anderson done. Christine Michael will also see a huge workload against the worst fantasy defense against RBs, New Orleans. If he can’t hit value against them, then I’ll be extremely shocked. I’m doubling up on TE with Gronk (always a solid cash play) and Gary Barnidge, who has quietly been very consistent and gets his favorite QB back in Josh McCown. Barnidge with McCown is a legit top-5 TE.
Mike Evans is my #2 WR of the week behind only Julio Jones. Ty Montgomery should see a ton of short passes out of the backfield as the de facto #1 RB for the Packers. The Vikings are the best defense in the league, and I will continue to start them every single week if I can find a way to afford them.
Yes, Josh McCown. Why not? He’s playing at home for a team full of young, athletic players at RB and WR. Plus, he has his trusty TE in Gary Barnidge to throw to. If he can’t hit 15 FP or more against a Jets team giving up nearly 300 yards and 2 TDs to opposing QBs. They are even worse on the road, where they have given up 9 of their 13 TDs. At this price, he could easily hit 2.5X value if everything goes well.Ware, Booker, Evans, and the Vikings all make appearances again, so I won’t go over them.
At WR, I love Hopkins to have a breakout game against the Lions who are without Darius Slay. This, of course, means that Brock will have to not be an idiot, but considering Case Keenum looked like a HOFer against the Lions while Slay was playing, I am not really too worried about Brock and Co. this week. I’ve rostered a favorite of mine (and Doug’s) in Fiedorowicz, who hasn’t scored below 8.5 FP in the past four weeks. He gets the same Lions who have been a sieve against TEs. David Johnson is going to be overlooked given the matchup, but he has proven he’s matchup-proof. Devonta Freeman will have a huge workload against the Packers with Coleman out. Sign me up.
Sample Yahoo! Lineups
Sunday 50/50 (Updated)
Sunday GPP (Updated)
URGENT: Ty Montgomery is OUT! In the GPP lineups, put Adams in the WR slot and move in Asiata to the FLEX. In the CASH lineup, drop Freeman for Asiata. Drop Montgomery for Nelson.
Yahoo! Lineup Configurations
I started this lineup with a three man stack of the Falcons, who will likely shoulder most of the offense with Tevin Coleman injured. This game also has an extremely high Vegas total, and there should be no shortage of scoring in it. Devontae Booker was outplayed by C.J. Anderson last week, but he out-snapped him, and there will be plenty of carries for Booker in this game. Ty Montgomery has officially been moved to running back for the Packers, but he’s still a wide receiver on here. He’s also still entirely too cheap, and he should easily hit value. Jack Doyle is a cheap option and comes with good upside for as long as Dwayne Allen is out of the lineup. Marqise Lee is far from a safe option, but he has been heavily involved in the offense recently, and the Titans have a terrible secondary. The Cowboys defense is another cheap part to this team, and they are the favorites in a game with a low Vegas total. They get a good matchup against the Eagles, who have really struggled recently, and they have also been injury prone. Last, Gronkowski fit into the lineup, and he has been on absolute fire recently.
Again, I started this lineup with a three man stack. The Bucs proved last week that they can run their production through Winston, Rodgers, and Evans, and they get another elite matchup this week. This game should be high scoring, and this is one of the safer stacks on the lineup. I also used Freeman and Montgomery in this lineup, and they will both be playing heavy snaps because of injuries. Crowder and Beasley don’t come with elite upside, but they have been extremely consistent players for the most part this season. The Cowboys defense is too cheap on this slate, and they are a safe option. Last, Fiedorowicz fits into the lineup, and he continuously sees targets every week for a low price tag. Overall, this isn’t a team with a ton of upside, but it is safe, which is what we’re looking for in cash games.
For the third consecutive lineup, I used Ty Montgomery, who is too cheap in his new role. I also added Davante Adams, who will be playing in a high scoring game and comes with elite upside, which was on display last Thursday. I added a three man stack of the Saints, who can score on anyone when they are playing at home. The matchup against the Seahawks should keep their own percentages low, and it has dropped their price tags. I also used Jimmy Graham in that game, as he’ll face a struggling Saints defense, which is the team he played for a few years ago. The Jets are a great option as a defense, as they get a great matchup against the Browns this week. Blount is always a great option when the Patriots are favorites, as he has multi-touchdown potential every week. Rodgers will continue to shoulder a big load for the Bucs, and he gets a great matchup once again this week.
Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters. As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience. To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. There are instructions on the first sheet. If you have any questions whatsoever about how to use the optimizer, or if it’s not working for you, e-mail me at email@example.com. I’ll do my best to get back to you right away. If you don’t have Excel 2010 or later, then shoot me an e-mail with constraints you want, and I’ll run it for you. Also, if you have any ideas for things you’d want to see included in future iterations of this, then I’d also love to hear about them! Thanks, and have fun!!
NOTES: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include. DeSean Jackson was a regular when I ran the initial lineups. I left him out given his questionable status, but you could certainly put him back in here when you rerun the models.
If you have any questions at all, shoot me an e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org. Good luck this week!
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||FanDraf||Yahoo||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Defense Opp FanDraf Yahoo Off Points Sack Int Fum Rec DefTD RetTD FPPG
New England Patriots HOU $7,800 $20 16.9 2 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 8.4
Atlanta Falcons SEA $5,000 $16 21.6 2.6 0.8 0.4 0 0 6.2
Pittsburgh Steelers @KC $5,600 $13 22.2 2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 4.8
Dallas Cowboys GB $5,200 $12 27.0 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
Kansas City Chiefs PIT $6,700 $19 24.4 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0 3.9
Green Bay Packers @DAL $5,500 $13 26.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 0 0 3.2
Seattle Seahawks @ATL $5,900 $16 31.9 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 2.6
Houston Texans @NE $4,600 $10 27.2 1.5 0.1 0.6 0 0 2.5
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART
You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|