Week 7 Starts and Sits
October 24, 2015 | Chet
The Week 7 Starts and Sits feature a new-look Game Flowbotics spreadsheet. In addition to overall offensive and defensive DVOA rankings, I’m now including data specific to match-ups between offensive and defensive lines for both rushing and passing (Adjusted Line Yards and Adjusted Sack Rate, respectively). These stats can give us a better understanding of how a particular rushing or passing attack might work in a given match-up. To keep things consistent, I’ve color coded the O-line and D-line metrics to correspond to overall team rushing and passing rankings in the spreadsheet. Please sound off in the comments below if you have any questions. Otherwise, the video is a long one this week, so let’s shake a leg and get to the Week 7 links and analysis:
- Philip Rivers vs. OAK: I owe Phil a make-up call for the “sit” status I tabbed him with last week.
- Blake Bortles vs. BUF: A risky pick, for sure, but the Jags struggle to run the ball, so he’ll probably have to pass a ton, as usual. Plus, my son’s name is also Bort. Solidarity.
- Brian Hoyer @ MIA: This feels dirty, but QB is a mess this week and Miami might be due for a letdown.
- Derek Carr @ SD: This should be a high-scoring game and the Chargers’ defense is porous.
- Zach Mettenberger vs. ATL: Deep consideration only, but this is a nice match-up for fantasy purposes.
- Frank Gore vs. NO: This game’s 52-point over-under projects a lot of offense. The Saints defend the run poorly, but this is mostly me hoping Frank Gore can score at least once in this game.
- LeGarrette Blount vs. NYJ: Tough match-up, yes, but list the 24 running backs you’d start ahead of Blount this week. I’ll wait… Couldn’t figure it out? Yeah, me neither.
- Danny Woodhead vs. OAK: The Raiders are solid against the run, so I’d much rather count on Woodhead than Melvin Gordon (and I will generally feel that way every week until Gordon proves he has a reliable and productive role).
- Chris Johnson vs. BAL: I don’t love this call, but CJ is the Arizona RB I’ll have ranked highest this week. One of their backs should succeed in this contest.
- Rashad Jennings vs. DAL: Watch the video for full explanation, but know that I hate making this pick.
- Duke Johnson @ STL: Should be easier to catch passes out of the backfield than run into the stout St. Louis defensive line. That bodes well for Duke and poorly for Isaiah Crowell.
- Donte Moncrief vs. NO: New Orleans has the worst pass defense DVOA in the league. I like all the Indy receivers this week (aside from Andre Johnson — see below), but I like you most of all, Moncrief. *Closes eyes, clicks heels, waits patiently to wake from the dream of a fantasy football world without Jamaal Charles, peeks out of one eye, accepts reality, moves to Kansas and awaits death by tornado.*
- Martavis Bryant @ KC: We have enough evidence at this point to know Martavis is good and the Chiefs’ pass defense is bad.
- Brandin Cooks @ IND: Cooks has a nice skill set for this match-up. Similar wide receivers have succeeded against the Colts.
- Pierre Garcon vs. TB: It’s easier to pass on the Bucs than run it, so fire up Garcon.
- Michael Crabtree @ SD: See Derek Carr above.
- Robert Woods @ JAC: The default WR1 with Sammy Watkins and Percy Harvin hobbled. Might be the second read to Charles Clay, but both should see plenty of work against a beatable Jacksonville secondary. Their teammate Chris Hogan has deep sleeper appeal by the same logic.
- Delanie Walker vs. ATL: Atlanta gives up the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and Tennessee should be forced to throw in this game.
- Charles Clay @ JAC: See Robert Woods above.
- Eric Ebron vs. MIN: Pending health, but the Vikes have struggled covering tight ends.
- Coby Fleener vs. NO: See Donte Moncrief above.
- Matthew Stafford vs. MIN: Not unusable, but I don’t have Stafford pegged for a top-12 finish.
- Sam Bradford @ CAR: Terrible match-up for Sad Sadford.
- Joe Flacco @ ARI: The return of Steve Smith helps Flacco, but seek a QB with a more favorable opponent.
- Josh McCown @ STL: On the road against a top-10 defense that gives up the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks? That’s a McCown match-up, bro.
- Colin Kaepernick vs. SEA: A predictable early-week call. I like Kaepernick’s streamability against bad defenses, but Seattle does not have a bad defense.
- Jonathan Stewart vs. PHI: Burned me in last week’s installment, but I’m trusting the process and running J-Stew back as a “sit” in another tough match-up.
- Christine Michael & Joseph Randle @ NYG: Watch the video for deeper reasoning, but I worry they will eat into each other’s production and the Giants’ run defense is solid.
- Melvin Gordon vs. OAK: See Danny Woodhead above.
- Joique Bell vs. MIN: We don’t know how healthy Bell is entering this game and he’s still competing with multiple backs for touches.
- Isaiah Crowell @ STL: See Duke Johnson above.
- Tavon Austin vs. CLE: Serious question: Why run tricky plays with Tavon Austin when you can hand off to Todd Gurley for 18 yards per carry?
- Ted Ginn Jr. vs. PHI: Like Stafford above, Ginn is usable. I’d prefer to have a better option, though.
- Mike Wallace @ DET: No super confident about this pick after some pro-Wallace action on Mike Clay’s timeline Thursday, but this is more a pick against the entire Minnesota offense than Wallace in particular.
- Kamar Aiken @ ARI: A difficult opponent plus the return of Steve Smith makes Aiken a very risky play.
- Roddy White @ TEN: Similar logic to the Tavon Austin “sit” above, the Falcons should run all over Tennessee and White is still trailing Julio Jones and Leonard Hankerson in targets.
- Andre Johnson vs. NO: It must be hard to play football with that fork stuck in him.
- Larry Donnell vs. DAL: Not a terrible option, but Dallas has defended tight ends well this season.
- Crockett Gillmore @ ARI: Meanwhile, no one has defended tight ends from a fantasy perspective better than Arizona and Maxx Williams continues to siphon gas out of Gillmore’s tank.
- Zach Ertz @ CAR: Might be a bad call considering Philly’s health issues at receiver, but Ertz is inconsistent and the Panthers are a prohibitive match-up.
- Jordan Reed & Derek Carrier vs. TB: I’m going against the grain of my Pierre Garcon “start” call above because Tampa Bay’s defense is tough on opposing tight ends.
Thanks for reading/watching and good luck this week.