Week 7 Risers and Fallers
October 29, 2015 | Chet
Check out our NFL DFS Cheat Sheet!
Don’t let your concentration fade as the World Series starts up and Dunk Ball’s tip-off week is going on; keep an eye on your fantasy football stock market while your leaguemates bandwagon onto the Royals and another Lebron James Finals run. Here’s a look at our most recent risers and fallers. If you’ve got some love, hate, questions or concerns feel free to light up that comment box on the bottom of the page or hit me up on Twitter!
The ownership percentages are a median between Yahoo! and ESPN own%.
Martavis Bryant (90.0%) is picking up right where he left off last season; after scoring three times in 2 games he has now scored eleven times in 12 career games. If you want to include last year’s playoff game he has a 40-792-12 line in 13 games. The dude just scores. Maybe we’d rather just watch Landry Jones stay out there and throw the ball if you’re not an Antonio Brown owner, because once Ben Roethlisberger comes back you can be certain that Brown will shoot right back up to the 15 target range. Nevertheless, Bryant makes for a high ceiling Flex play this week as he scored in each game against the Bengals in 2014, and this could end up being a high scoring affair.
Donte Moncrief (85.3%) is another guy creating a very nice floor for himself by scoring the ball at an incredible rate. Racking up double digit targets twice already this year should help his floor, but he has gone over 100 yards only once: in Week 2 against a stingy Jets team. Who woulda guessed? It’ll be hard to lean on him while T.Y. Hilton is still on the field, but he plays for a Colts team that throws the ball on nearly 2 out of every 3 plays and is 4th in the league in pass attempts. He’s going to be playing the Denver and Carolina defenses before heading into a bye week, but don’t scream “mon dieu, Moncrief!” just yet! (I’m sorry) He’ll be finishing out the season against Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Houston and Miami, which averages out to be the 22nd ranked passing defense according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Donte has had a pretty high floor, low ceiling season thus far, but look for that ceiling to rise exponentially once Indy gets through this stretch and get a healthy Andrew Luck back into form.
Darren McFadden (64.8%) shut up a bunch of nerds (including me) who figured Christine Michael would get more or even most of the touches against the Giants. I figured since they got the guy in the offseason and he still only had 37 carries through five games that they didn’t want him to carry much of the workload. I was wrong. Jog DMC almost matched his season total with 29 rushes and did beat his rushing yards to date by turning those into 152 yards and a score. Darren’s last 100+ yard rushing game was way back in Week 2 of 2013, and Seattle is only allowing 94.1 yards/game on the ground, but the Cowboys don’t have a lot of options with Matt Cassell at the helm. A perfectly acceptable Flex play and you could do much worse with your RB2.
Marvin Jones (40.5%) gets himself a stock boost this week that could correlate into a rest of season boost. In Week 6 before his bye, Marvin led the Bengals in targets (12), catches (9) and yards (95) while also scoring a touchdown, marking his second game of 90+ yards and a score. The other game? Against Baltimore, the same game A.J. Green went off for 227 yards. The Pittsburgh secondary isn’t all that much better than the Ravens’ and it goes to show that each receiver can eat and he may end up even better if the Steelers double up on Green. Great Flex play or a WR2 if you are without Jacksonville’s Allens, Pierre Garcon or Jordan Matthews this week. A perfect grab for someone who still owns the likes of Marques Colston (see below).
Jay Cutler (25.2%) comes out of his Bye week as a riser almost entirely because of a closer-to-100% Alshon Jeffery. Alshon has 22 targets from Cutler in his two weeks on the field and has turned them into 225 yards and a touchdown. Over the last three weeks Jay has averaged a 62% completion rate for a 295-2.3-.67 line and 22 fantasy points a game, and two of those were without his best receiver; one was actually without Eddie Royal and Jeffery. This week against Minnesota may be a little tougher going, but depending on how proactive your league is you may need to look into getting him for week 9 as Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, and Russell Wilson are all on byes. Maybe it’s the masochist in me, but Chicago also plays Tampa Bay and San Francisco down the stretch so I love the thought of rostering him as my backup rest-of-season.
Matt Ryan (96.9%) once again barely registered as a 2-QB league play against the Titans as he completed just 57.9% of his passes for 251 yards, a TD and two interceptions, including one in the end zone. Matty Not So Nice has now managed 16.4 fantasy points per game, which would rank him as the 22nd QB, and his last four weekly finishes have been QB21, QB27, QB15 and QB20 according to Rich Hribar’s worksheet. He has one Mr. Julio Jones to toss the ball to, but when Julio can only catch 9 of his 17 targets (52.9%) you know your quarterback has a problem. With as many multi-turnover games as multi-score games, Ryan will hope to turn things around this week at home against a Tampa Bay defense that just gave up eight touchdowns between Blake Bortles and Kirk Cousins in the last two weeks. If he can’t feast against them then he won’t against anyone.
Golden Tate (86.0%) produced yet another stinker – his worst of the year – against Minnesota, turning his 6 targets into 2 catches and a drop while accumulating 14 yards. Over his last 12 games spanning across last season Goldy has topped 80 yards just once and has gotten 50 or less yards seven times. The Lions have faced off against some pretty decent secondaries, but they’re also 1-6, which logic would tell you that they’ve literally been playing from behind all season. Tate’s season-high 8 catches were gathered in because he was targeted an insane 18 times in Week 5. A new offensive coordinator could help every piece of this offense except Detriot’s no. 2 WR, who has already produced next to nothing with 60 targets. Even if he does well in London this Sunday morning, ship him.
Jordan Cameron (71.6%) scored his first touchdown of the season last week, but fell off that step ladder back to earth this week, catching both of his targets for 23 yards. We expect low floors from tight ends who aren’t in ohh say, the top-5, but Cameron’s floor is about as low as it gets. His catch rate sits at 45% as he has caught only 17 of his 38 targets this year, and has finished three games with less than 25 yards. During Week 6’s 38-10 win over Tennessee he lost production to Dion Sims who came in and caught all 4 of his targets for 33 yards and a score. Week 7 was also a blowout, one that included 282 yards and 4 touchdowns from Tannehill, yet his tight end still didn’t get involved. Miami has rediscovered their running game and Cameron is the fourth option in the passing game. Probably not worth looking at as a streaming play unless they play Oakland. (They don’t)
Marques Colston (34.1%) and those of you that still own him on your fantasy team would really prefer this to be 2012. Alas, it is not and his first and only catch of Week 7 wasn’t until the final drive of the game. Marques’ biggest game of the season netted you 10.8 points in a full PPR league and he is simply being pushed out of New Orleans’ plans whether healthy or not. While playing just 30.3% of the snaps and garnering three targets he still managed to run a misinformed route that cost Drew Brees an interception in the end zone. Your bench spot is worthy of a player with more upside, no matter the league size.
Bishop Sankey (28.9%) is a name I didn’t figure I’d be typing again for the rest of the season, but that number next to his name means some people out there are just not understanding that Tennessee doesn’t like him. There’s not a league deep enough to hold onto Sankey as long as he’s on a team that wants nothing to do with him. Here’s his yearly carry totals by week: 12, 12, 5, 7, 3, 0. Yes, last week was a big ol’ zero. He was targeted on a pass play once. No catch. Undrafted last year, Antonio Andrews has been getting the majority of the carries recently while Dexter McCluster has been getting the passing-game love in this awful offense. David Cobb will be eligible to return in just two short weeks. Drop Sankey before the Titans do.