Week 7 Fantasy Football Last Second Decisions October 20, 2012  |  Kevin Roberts

There are a couple of things you should do in life. Watch Dexter and Breaking Bad. Go to a game at Lambeau Field. Participate in a drunken night of karaoke. Oh, and before you make any final decisions in fantasy football, you should read this c0lumn.

I’m bordering on suggesting trying the other things first, but hammering out the details of your fantasy lineup ranks pretty high in my opinion. Injuries, roles and matchups, baby – that’s what Kevin does.

But I could talk about the importance of these tiny details all day. It’s probably time to actually start getting into the advice/analysis portion. Oh, and if this doesn’t suit your fantasy fancy, you can always hit me up on Twitter @NFLSoupKevin or comment below for some extra specific help.

And here we go…

Injury Freakout

Trent Richardson, RB, Cleveland Browns (Ribs)

Richardson got spelled a bit last week and missed some practice time with a rib injury, but is expected to be fine for this week’s matchup with the Colts. After Indy got gashed by an inferior talent in Shonn Greene, even a limited T-Rich is in for a huge day.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, New York Giants (Foot)

Bradshaw has been steam-rolling the past two weeks, with over 300 yards rushing, but there’s a chance a foot injury keeps him out of week seven. He has a solid matchup with the Redskins, but he missed practice quite a bit this week and with suitable backups, is a major question mark. It looks like it could be a bit of a RBBC even if he does play, so I’m leaning away from him this week if it makes sense on your roster.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (Achilles)

Mendy is out with a sore Achilles, which the Steelers are worried could be related to his surgically repaired acl. Either way, he’s out this week, so get him out of your lineups.

Isaac Redman, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (Ankle)

Redman is also out. He actually looked fairly spry on a couple of plays last Thursday, but he won’t play this week. Hit up our matchup section to see if any Steelers backs are worth thinking over this week.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants (Knee)

Nicks didn’t blow up in his first game back last week, but he did grab three catches and he looks to be on the mend. Any guy under 100% is always a risk, but he’s facing a vulnerable Redskins pass D and the Giants’ top RB could be out this week. He should at least field solid WR2 numbers this week.

Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys (Groin)

Bryant is dealing with some groin soreness, but doesn’t look like a real threat to sit out this week. Barring something crazy, you have to keep playing the guy, as Tony Romo is targeting him like crazy.

Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay Packers (Groin)

Jennings has been ruled out for week seven, as the Packers want to get him all the way to 100% before testing him out again. That means major upside for Jordy Nelson, James Jones and Randall Cobb again this week.

Vincent Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Calf)

V-Jax being on the injury report just appears to be a formality, as he’s fully expected to suit up against an awful Saints defense this week. He’s been killing it the past few weeks, so you have to keep him in your lineup.

Pierre Garcon, WR, Washington Redskins (Foot)

Garcon is looking to miss week seven and possibly longer. He has struggled mightily to get healthy ever since the season opener, and as we’ve seen in recent weeks, really can’t be trusted right now even when he does hit the field.

Jerome Simpson, WR, Minnesota Vikings (Back)

Simpson will play this week despite a sore back, and could be an interesting sleeper against the Cardinals. With Patrick Peterson almost certainly shadowing Percy Harvin, Simpson has a shot at taking the top off Arizona’s pass defense.

Laurent Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (Head)

A bit of a sleeper entering Jacksonville’s matchup with the Raiders, Robinson loses all value as he’s been ruled out for week seven. That could give struggling rookie Justin Blackmon a considerable stock boost, however.

Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans Saints (Ankle)

Originally a major game-time call for week seven, Graham has officially been ruled out. It’s a blow to a lot of lineups, but at least you don’t have to play the guessing game. Hit us up for comments if you need a suitable replacement and want to know who to play.

Troy Polamalu, S, Pittsburgh Steelers (Calf)

Hair Flow will miss another week, which is fantastic news for anyone who is using Bengals’ offense weapons. A.J. Green is always a must-start, but this is also great news for owners of Andrew Hawkins, Jermaine Gresham, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and obviously Andy Dalton, as well. The Pittsburgh defense just got a little less attractive to use for week seven.

Chris Gamble, CB, Carolina Panthers (Shoulder)

Carolina’s top cornerback is out for week seven, which could really take the pressure off the Dallas passing game. Dez Bryant and Miles Austin both could roam free all day on Sunday.

Haloti Ngata, DT, Baltimore Ravens (Knee)

Ngata is tough as nails, trying to play through knee ligament damage, but he’s no lock for week seven. If he’s out, Arian Foster’s prospects, which already looked good, get even better.

Terrell Suggs, DE, Baltimore Ravens (Achilles)

Suggs has been activated from the Ravens’ PUP list and is expected to play this week. He can’t be counted on for the entire game and shouldn’t crush it in his first game back, but this gives Baltimore’s lethargic pass-rush a major morale boost.

Role Patrol

Timmay Tebow

I have a feeling Tebow gets way more involved this week against the Patriots. I can’t really vouch for it, but there’s something about those Jets/Pats battles that make me think Rex Ryan has been waiting to use him specifically to burn Belichick and the Pats. In addition, that talk of him playing some running back might not be horse poop. Shonn Greene is the only active RB in New York who has carried the ball, so the Jets just might do it. Unless you’re in an 8-QB league, he still is too big of a risk to use, however.

Andre Brown vs. David Wilson

With Ahmad Bradshaw out or fairly limited this week, Brown and Wilson both potentially have solid value against a weak Redskins defense. I like both of these guys, but the Giants continue to trust Brown more, so he’d get the start and more overall touches.

Jonathan Dwyer and Co.

With both Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman out, this could be a huge day for Dwyer. He’s more talented than Redman and could get something going against an inconsistent Bengals defense. Look for him to get about 15 total touches, with Baron Batch and Chris Rainey fighting over the scraps.

Doin’ the Matchup Dance

  • Jay Cutler faces the Lions on MNF this week, and I have a good feeling about him. He’s hit or miss on prime time games, but Detroit has shown they can be carved up in their secondary and Cutler has been looking better of late.
  • Josh Freeman’s three touchdowns and 300+ yards last week weren’t a fluke. He and his receivers are clicking and now they get the Saints this week. Expect the hype train to keep chuggin’.
  • I know it’s unbelievably hard to trust Chris Johnson these days, but I don’t see how he doesn’t make something happen against a pathetic Bills defense.
  • The Arizona Cardinals have been brutal against the run for most of 2012, but after seeing Buffalo steam-roll them last week, I am loving Adrian Peterson enough to make him my #3 back. Besides, this guy is DUE a double-score game.
  • Andre Johnson is underrated right now. I know he hasn’t been doing much and the Texans don’t pass enough, but Baltimore just lost their top corner. I think he’s in for a big week.
  • And for a negative spin: I can’t see Joe Haden getting burned two weeks in a row, which is bad news for Reggie Wayne.

Like always, hit me up on Twitter or comment below. I’ll do my best to answer questions leading into games on Sunday. Good luck to everyone this week!

40 Responses

  1. DiRo says:

    Gresham or Pettigrew?

  2. c3rd says:

    Flex: Woodhead or Alex Green?

  3. Mike says:

    Gresham or Finley this week?

  4. Adam says:

    10 team +.5 PPR, 4 pts bonus for TDs over 40 YDs….

    Pick 2 for FLEX

    Doug Martin vs NO, Fred Jackson vs TEN, Alex Green @ STL, Kenny Britt @ BUF, Brandon Gibson vs GB, Lance Moore @ TB….

    I keep flip-flopping, I just can’t decide.

  5. Go Ducks says:

    .5 ppr and I desperately need a win.

    Need two WR’s and a flex out of these: Britt, A. Brown, F. Jones, A. Boldin, D. Moore

    Gonna roll with Moore,Britt and Jones unless you think otherwise

    • Neil Parker says:

      I think I left an answer to this question in the War Room – so I’ll let one of the others throw down here and that way you have a couple opinions.

    • I vote for Britt, Brown and Jones in the Flex. Moore and Brown are toss ups. I just think Brown is due and could go off with Cincy working on Wallace.

  6. Chad Z says:

    Should I start L.Moore over M.Austin now that J.Graham is out?

  7. ryan says:

    dwyer or hixon in a ppr league for flex spot?

    • Neil Parker says:

      I like Dwyer – he might not top 20 carries, but the Bengals are no threat and Hixon’s targets are likely in the decline with Nicks getting back to full speed.

    • Gonna go Dwyer. He’s not a ppr fiend, but with Nicks looking healthier, Dixon isn’t a great lock. Dwyer could score once and right there he’d beat out Dixon.

  8. rob J says:

    A. Hawkins or T.Young(Det) ppr

    • Neil Parker says:

      Hawkins is overrated now, and Young was overrated coming into the season. But Young has been awful, and going against the Bears it is Hawkins all the way. He is a low end PPR play almost every week.

    • Hawkins, without a doubt. I agree with Neil that both guys are overrated but at least Hawkins has been a little more consistent and is also 100%.

  9. Oleg says:

    i’m currantly 1-5 in a 12 man and need to probably be 7-5 or 6-6 to win my division(very weak division).I have a pretty good team but bad luck. Help me out.
    QB: Big Ben and Phillip Rivers
    Rb: Alfred Morris, Matt Forte, Fred Jackson, and Demarco
    Wr: Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones, Kendall Wright, Pierre Garcon and Chris Givens.
    Te:Fred Davis and Brandon Pettigrew.
    I feel i really need to upgrade my TE who is the top guy the rest of the year and what should i give up for him?

    • Neil Parker says:

      Your QB situation is a bit merky too. Rivers is inconcsistent, and the talks of his velocity and decreasing ability to throw the deep ball leaves him prone to interceptions. Big Ben is a better NFL QB than fantasy QB – But he’ll have his good games. Your skilled positions are strong, but I think your TEs are going to be tough to top, without hurting your RB and WR depth. Honestly, you’ve had consistent injury issues, but with Forte and Nicks back you should start to win. If there was a particular trade you’re considering let us know.

      One thing I always stress about trading is making sure that you let everyone in the league know you’re willing to deal, and wait until you get something you really like and think will improve your team.
      Good Luck.

    • I think you’re actually in pretty good shape. The Nicks injury and Rivers’ implosion have probably hurt you the past two weeks. Forte being hurt didn’t help, either.

      I’d roll with Big Ben at QB until Rivers gets his act together, and maybe try to unload F-Jax (timeshare) and Garcon (constantly hurt) for an elite TE. Or package one of your TEs and F-Jax for a better TE. Otherwise, it’s been bad luck so far and your roster has the ability to get you out of this hole.

  10. Wilsonian says:

    0.5 PPR. Bonus points at 100 yards rushing and 85 yards receiving. Who do you play between LeShoure and J.Gordon in a flex?

    • Neil Parker says:

      That is a little tough … because you know that LeShoure is going to get his chances, but the Bears run defense is the best in the league, and you can almost bank it that there will be no bonus for him. With that being said, he might catch more passes than Gordon. Gordon has a good matchup, but he is clearly not a possession reciever, and it can be tough to trust deep threats to produce week in, week out. Weeden and Luck are going to air it out today, so I’d look at the great upside play and hope Gordon can haul in a long TD pass, and get the bonus.

    • I’m going Gordon off of upside. He’s Browns #1 guy and Blount has no guarantee of touches.

  11. Max says:

    In a .5 for PPR would you start Dwyer or Woodhead…Redman and mendenhall out helps dwyer but bolden out helps woodhead any thoughts (also could potentially get tanner or blount)

    • All of these guys are roughly in the same boat in terms of total touches and value. I’ll take Dwyer here. not a big ppr guy but could score and should get 10-15 carries.

      You don’t know Woodhead or Tanner’s touches. Blount can make an argument here, but has zero ppr value, so I’d rather stick with Pitt’s starter this week.

  12. Nate says:

    Vick on a bye. Should I go with my backup Bradford or drop him for Cutler? (12 teams .5ppr) Also could drop Bey, Stewart or Syd Rice for Cutler

    • I prefer Cutler there. Packers can be tough and Bradford is far from elite. Cutler has 4 TD to 1 pick in last 2 games and Lions aren’t great against pass. You can drop Bradford or Rice, depending on your depth for both positions.

  13. Pedro says:

    Hard to sit Wayne with all the targets. In a ppr Wayne or William powell

    • PPR no question you’re going with Wayne there. I’m not suggesting Wayne should be sat, either, but I doubt he is huge. still, he should be better than Powell. Powell faces solid Vikes run D, anyways.

  14. Robert says:

    Hey Kevin, a few of questions for you…

    1. Leshoure or Britt at FLEX this week?
    2. With Ryan on a bye, Fitzpatrick or go get Hasselbeck? I have Britt and opponent has FJax, not that it really matters.
    3. JFinley, B. Myers, C. Fleener, or Dwayne Allen to get me through the bye week?


    • 1. Britt if its PPR, Leshoure in standard (britt is going to be targeted like crazy now that he’s healthy)

      2. Fitz for sure. he’s suffered through 2 brutal games the past two weeks, but before that was a solid option. consider him reborn vs a weak Titans D. Hass is OK, but he can be pretty shaky.

      3. I’ll take Finley at the TE there, but Meyers is a close second.

  15. Dan says:

    Yep need a TE to replace Graham. My options are Jared cook, jermichael Finley, Fred Davis, Brandon Pettigrew, Jermaine Gresham and Scott Chandler. Its PPR. I’m leaning cook right now cuz of talent and matchup. Who do you like? Thanks!

  16. LakerSteve says:

    Hey Kevin, two part question. I need to choose a RB #2 from LeShoure, A. Green and D. Richardson. Then, I need to drop one of them (probably D. Rich) for a TE to replace Graham. I’d consider dropping LMoore, but I’ll need him for bye weeks and I don’t know how much I can trust Bowe. Any thoughts would be appreciated.
    QB: Romo
    RB (2): McCoy, TRich, Murray, LeShoure, AGreen, DRich
    WR (3): Harvin, Britt, Bowe, D. Moore, L. Moore
    TE: Graham

    • Leshoure is your RB2, without a doubt. Then I’d drop Richardson. He and Green have similar value but Green has more upside in a better offense and he’s also starting. So, drop Richardson and go hunt for a TE for this week. If you need help with who to pick up, reply your top 5 favorite options.

      I agree on not dropping Moore, as well. I love him this week and any Saints receiver has upside.

    • LakerSteve says:

      Thanks Kevin – meant to leave a list of TE’s earlier. This is the best available in my order of preference, but I know it’s a crapshoot – 1pt PPR.
      – Olsen (DAL)
      – Chandler (TEN)
      – Gresham (PIT)
      – Pettigrew (@CHI)

    • Olsen is a nice find. Gets targeted well and should be needed vs Cowboys this week. I’ll go Olsen, Pett, Gresham and Chandler.

      Pett isn’t 100% and Bears are a tough matchup, so I’d take Olsen over him this week.

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