Week 7 DFS Cheat Sheet: UPDATED
October 18, 2014 | Chet
Welcome to Week 7 of The Fake Football DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Guru Rich Hribar, Ian Goldsmith and myself, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, Fantasy Elite and Draftday, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those four. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
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Sample FanDuel Lineups(by Rich Hribar)
FanDuel Lineup Configurations
Brady wasn’t particularly great versus the Jets a season ago (one game with Gronk), so I feel like the Brady/Gronk stack is better served for tournament play this week. Since I’m aiming for upside, I’m adding Mike Wallace and Justin Hunter to my Brandon Marshall anchor in hopes of hitting some well overdue moon shots from each. Ben Tate and Justin Forsett will be staples across all formats on FanDuel this weekend, while the Cleveland defense and Nick Novak are your typical additions to those positions.
Thursday Cash Lineup
One cash lineup this week, and I’ll feel good about putting this into play on Thursday as well. With so many limited options available in the game this Thursday, we could see a lot of lineups to take advantage of in those early games. I’m all in on Kirk Cousins this week with so many of the high end quarterbacks having tougher matchups and Cousins’ pricing being so far off base for his output thus far and Tennessee’s pass defense is trending way down the past three weeks. I’m pretty smitten with this wide receiver unit, and although I would prefer to get Gronk in as many lineups as possible, I just didn’t like the WR3 or RB2 combinations I had with him. Jordan Reed is a solid option at this cost and just like with Charles, I’m trying to catch these playmakers before their price shoots back up to their ceilings.
Carolina has a tough matchup, but both Newton and Kelvin Benjamin possess that upside you covet in tournament action in a game in which they’ll need score points. Jordy Nelson has been the hottest receiver going and a target monster and Wallace is a hedge on volume and upside like Benjamin is. Sticking with my same tournament backs from Thursday and rounding out with Larry Donnell, who should back to being heavily involved this week with Victor Cruz sidelined and Dallas being vulnerable inside with the intermediate pass.
Sunday Early Only
Sometimes, these contests are weekly lifelines. I’m a one lineup per game format type of player, so last week; the early only slate saved a chunk of my bankroll from the daily disaster known as Eli Manning. A lot of my favorite plays that were mentioned in the player section happen to suit up on the early slate this week, so putting together a lineup I feel good about wasn’t too hard at all. With the smaller slate, you’re bound some overlap, but as with Peyton last week, I generally pay up for the best quarterback of the contest, so I’m starting off with Rodgers. Working down, I live Forsett this week at that price and Ben Tate has seen immense volume from the Cleveland offense since returning two weeks ago. There’s still plenty of room to pay up for a good receiving unit, and I’m going to play off of my Cousin’s affection by rolling with Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed. All indications from today are the Kelvin Benjamin will suit up, and his matchup has improved over the week as Packer corners Tramon Williams is expected to be inactive and Sam Shields a game time decision. If by chance he doesn’t pass the final part of his concussion protocol, swapping him out for Golden Tate in a great matchup is lateral move in terms of salary.
Sample DraftDay Lineups (by Chet Gresham)
DraftDay Lineup Configurations
Thur Cash Lineup: I’m on board the Cousins train this week. His numbers have been good for fantasy and his price is still low. Brady is locked in right now and Thursday night against the Jets will be an opportunity to show it. Forsett is perfect for this matchup with Atlanta. Much like Forte last week, Forsett can catch passes out of the backfield and also run the ball well. Lamar Miller gets the every down work back this week and even though the Bears are making teams pass against them due to their scoring, I like Miller to be able to put together a nice all around game. I’m doubling down on Welker after his no show last Sunday. Manning will want to get him back involved and the middle of the field will be safer with no Patrick Willis. Justin Hunter has looked good since gaining a starting role and Washington is good at giving up yardage through the air. Sammy Watkins is one of my favorite plays this week. Minnesota is ranked 31st against #1 WR according to Football Outsiders and after getting stuck on Revis Island last week he and Orton should get back on track. I like Floyd and Fitz against Oakland and feel good about either this week with Palmer back. Jordan Reed looked to be 100% last week and I think he keeps getting targets. The Bills defense would be able to slow down Teddy and company and after the Patriots, they’re my next favorite D this week.
Sunday Tourney: (I still like this lineup if Benjamin is able to practice) Newton’s upside is huge when he is running the ball and that makes him a great tourney play. Palmer is risky, but looks to be gaining his arm strength back and he has a great matchup and stud receivers. Andre Williams was a dud last week, but so was the whole team. Dallas is still weak against the run and I could easily see this game being low scoring and run oriented. Ben Tate will be on plenty of my cash lineups this week as well, with a great matchup. Benjamin is risky as he can have down games, but he and Newton make for a great tourney pairing. Jordan Cameron gets a premium matchup and with the run game clicking, play action to Cameron should be a staple in this game.
Sunday Cash Lineup: Updated Thursday. I think Cousins remains safe for his price and a healthy Reed, Garcon and DJax can do a lot of the work for him. Rodgers has been amazing since he told everyone to relax and the addition of Adams to his core group is helping. The Jags are giving up 162 total yards per game to running backs and the most receptions per game as well. Forsett feels extremely safe in the 1 PPR format of DD. He had 27 targets in the first 5 games. (none last week in the early blowout) The Falcons are giving up 190 total yards per game to running backs and 6.8 receptions. The Falcons should give the Ravens a little better game so Forsett won’t be resting by halftime. I’m loving Watkins and Shorts for their numerous targets. Shorts had 16 targets last week and Watkins had 12 in his first game with Orton. Reed was heavily targeted by Cousins and Adams was the second most targeted Packer last week. Andre Williams is a little scary, but the Cowboys are giving up the most yards per attemtp to running backs this season with 5.7. I think the Giants will try to beat Dallas at their own game, defense and running.
Sunday Tourney: I’m sticking with Tate and Forsett. Their price and upside are too good for me and I don’t love many cheap receivers other than Adams. Kaepernick should need to score and that means plenty of points from the his legs. Lacy gets a nice matchup and he’s exploited the one easy matchup he’s had this year.
Sample Draftkings Lineups (by Ian Goldsmith)
Draftkings Lineup Configurations
Stack, stack, stack. The matchups this week are making me salivate over potential stacks. Here are a few of my favorite games to exploit this week.
Arizona at Oakland
AZ: The Cardinals have an opportunity to just destroy the Raiders. With Palmer back, their offense can operate in ways that it only dreamed of a couple of weeks ago. The best matchup for ‘Zona is Andre Ellington against the Raiders’ run defense. One only has to look back to last week to see their weakness as Branden Oliver had his way with them. Palmer’s receiving corps’ prices did not go up, despite decent games. Larry Fitzgerald is a particularly interesting play at only $4800. You could pair him and Michael Floyd for a potential gold mine.
OAK: They are not pushovers. Rookie QB Derek Carr simply does not make many mistakes. Their line is blocking relatively well also. If Carr gets time to operate again, then he could have another huge day against a weak Arizona secondary, the worst fantasy defense against receivers. The dual threat of James Jones and Andre Holmes could combine for huge points once again in tournaments. There is risk in relying on a first year QB, but they seem to be developing a rapport.
Cleveland at Jacksonville
CLV: This week sets up nicely for the Browns to move to 4-2 in glorious fashion. Start your Browns with confidence. In particular, Ben Tate is a near must-play for me against the Jags. He’s a steal at $5300. He also may be heavily owned, so just remember that heading into tournaments. Brian Hoyer is one of my favorite values of the week at $5600. The Jags don’t have the personnel to stop him. I like the idea of pairing him with Jordan Cameron, who has tremendous upside in this choice matchup and is only $4600. Cleveland DST is well worth starting as well. Don’t overthink it. Stream D’s against the Jags.
Tennessee at Washington
TN: Oh that beautifully horrific Washington passing D. This is the perfect opportunity to go big in a tournament and stack Charlie Whitehurst and Justin Hunter for only $8700 combined (If Locker plays, you can slot him in for just a wee bit more). This is a risky play, but one that could pay off big if they are able to connect. You might also look at Dexter McCluster, who at only $3500 was the 2nd highest targeted player on the Titans
WASH: Oh that beautifully exploitable Tennessee passing D. Actually, the Titans aren’t that awful against the pass, but they have given up 11 passing TDs (tied for 7th most in the NFL). In the past two weeks, they have given up 336 yards and a TD to Blake Bortles and 291 yards and 3 TDs against Brian Hoyer. Yeah, I love Kirk Cousins at home. Pair him with Jordan Reed, who looked right at home in his first game back from injury. Pierre Garcon may be under the radar given his recent poor performances, which could make him a steal in tournaments. He’s risky, but has high upside.
Top Thursday Plays
NE DST: $4200 – Most expensive defense, but worth it playing a visiting Jets’ team.
Tom Brady: $7600 – He’s in a groove and the Jets’ passing D is in shambles.
Gronk/Edelman: $6700/$6000 – Should be fantastic cash game plays this week.
Consistency, consistency, consistency. Kaepernick is averaging 40 yards rushing per game so far this season. That extra little boost helps raise his floor. In a game that Vegas expects to be a shootout, he’s a solid choice to anchor your cash lineups at only $6500. Tate and Miller are both the workhorses of their respective teams. In cash games I want a high number of touches. As poorly as Pittsburgh has played the past few games, Brown continues to shine. Big Ben doesn’t seem to trust anyone else. AB is a target monster and Houston doesn’t have the personnel to stop him. I like James Jones again here. His targets have been fairly reliable and Oakland is going to have to pass often this Sunday. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Carr pass the ball 40+ times. Last week was the first time Emmanuel Sanders had fewer than 6 catches. He gets back on the horse this week and posts another solid PPR line. Jordan Reed stepped in off of injury and caught 8 passes on 11 targets for 92 yards. Unbelievable. It’s clear that he is the go-to option in the Washington lineup. He gets another choice matchup against a Tennessee defense that struggles against TEs. Olsen has been one of the most consistent players in the NFL this season. While his matchups isn’t ideal, Cam basically has nobody else that can catch the ball on a consistently reliable basis. I like Kelvin as much as the next guy, but he’s still a rookie and can disappear.
This lineup may look a bit risky, but there is a method to my madness. Remember, one of the key rules to remember in large tournaments is to find players with great matchups that will be underutilized by others. While I think Holmes may have decent ownership due to his big week last week, I don’t think the same will be true for his teammates James Jones and Derek Carr. They have two key things going for them here. One, Arizona is terrific at stopping the run, even with all of the key injuries to their defense, meaning Oakland will need to pass more often. Two, Arizona cannot stop the pass; they give up the most passing yardage of any team in the league. I want players going against them.
Lacy will not be highly owned given his poor track record this year. He has an incredible matchup, however, against the Carolina rushing defense, who have amazingly given up over 140 yards per game on the ground. Charles’ upside is just way too high for his price. He will be heavily owned, but how can you shy away? I’d be shocked if you can get him at this low a price again this season. With all of the riskier picks, I want some stability. Murray slots in here nicely. I think the large jump in price will scare off a lot of players. It shouldn’t. The Giants’ run defense can be exploited as we saw McCoy do last week. Murray should have no trouble finding holes. His floor is 20. I project another game in the 27-30 range. I love Steve Smith’s upside here. Donnell is a bit of a risk, but if there is one position the Cowboys’ defense struggles against it is tight end (31st against TEs in fantasy). With Cruz and Jennings out, I expect Eli to go back to the player that helped him provide stability in the first few weeks of the season.
Fantasy Elite Drafting Ranks
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
If the Matchup Machine isn’t sortable for you, here are the same stats in Excel that are sortable: Matchup Machine Week 7
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
|DEP||Running Backs||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Att||Yds||YPC||RuTD||Rec||Target||Yds||RecTD||Tot Yds||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
|DEP||Tight Ends||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
|Defense||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Sack||Int||Fum Rec||Pts Allow||FP/%DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
|New England Patriots||IND||$3,200||$8,650||$4,900||7||1.8||1||0.9||27.9||2.188||0.809||1.429|
|Green Bay Packers||@SEA||$2,900||$8,400||$4,700||5.3||2.6||0.4||0.4||23.8||1.828||0.631||1.128|
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.