Week 7 DFS Cheat Sheet: FantasyDraft and Yahoo! (UPDATED)
October 23, 2016 | Ian Goldsmith
Welcome to Week 7 of the 2016 The Fake Football FantasyDraft and Yahoo! DFS Cheat Sheet!
. With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Doug Shain, Chet Gresham, and Justin Bales we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FantasyDraft and Yahoo!, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news. And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our a sheet from last season to see what you get.
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LeSean McCoy is expected to play and see limited work in a committee with Mike Gillislee
Dwayne Washington is NOT active. Zach Zenner and Justin Forsett will split work. Neither are solid plays, but Zenner has the most upside.
Jamaal Charles should play, but will have a limited workload after his knee swelled up this week. I’m going to stay away from him today.
Latavius Murray will play, but is tough to play in a deep committee.
Terrelle Pryor is expected to play barring a pregame setback. I think he can be used in redraft, but I’m staying away in DFS.
Tyler Eifert will play, but will also be on a snap count. I’m avoiding in DFS.
Carson Palmer will play, but has a tough matchup with Seattle.
Travis Benjamin will play against the Falcons. He makes for a good start, but the injury is a little concerning along with some Trufant coverage. I’ll lean Tyrell Williams of the two in DFS.
Joe Flacco should start. He’s not 100 percent, but I still think Mike Wallace sees a good amount of work with Steve Smith out.
Robert Woods is officially out. Justin Hunter will take his place and has some upside, but Charles Clay becomes the safest play.
Jamaal Charles experienced swelling in his knee on Friday and is now listed as questionable against the Saints. This makes things a little clearer going into a great matchup against the Saints and unfortunately if you’re a Charles backer, you probably should hold off on using him even if he suits up. Spencer Ware is probably going to be owned in 75 percent of DFS contests, but dang, I don’t know how you can avoid him in cash games with this matchup.
Odell Beckham Jr. got practices in on Thursday and Friday and is good to go against a Rams defense that has not been great against the pass. He does play in the early, early London game, so if you want to play him in DFS, you’ll have to get a move on! And I do think he makes for a good play and might be slightly contrary this week.
Doug Martin is still out and that means it’s Jacquizz Rodgers time! He had a crazy 35 touches last game and should be used heavily again this week against the 49ers, who as we know, play up-tempo football.
Julian Edelman says he is perfectly healthy and that the nature of the offense is the only thing holding him back so far. He should have plenty of room to roam against the Steelers, so there is a chance Tom Brady tries to get him going this week.
LeSean McCoy is a game-time decision, but I’d be surprised to see him out there this week. Mike Gillislee would get the start and be worth a DFS play this week. If Shady does end up going, I would still be wary of him, as he could be used more as a backup if they want to limit him.
Robert Woods won’t play this weekend. This boosts Marquise Goodwin and Justin Hunter’s value, but I’d be more inclined to move toward Charles Clay as a safe play at tight end.
Terrelle Pryor didn’t practice this week, but Hue Jackson hasn’t ruled him out just yet. For fantasy purposes though, I’d lean toward ruling him out on your team. I’m afraid to lean too much on Andrew Hawkins or Ricardo Louis, but I could see extra receiving work for Duke Johnson and Gary Barnidge.
Jordan Reed missed practice on Thursday and Friday and is out this week. Vernon Davis becomes a nice play against a bad Lions tight end defense.
DeSean Jackson practiced on Friday and will play. He’s always a bit risky, but does have good upside against the Lions.
Phillip Dorsett won’t play this week. That narrows things down a bit and makes T.Y. Hilton an obvious funnel target, while Jack Doyle should be a safe tight end play with Dwayne Allen also out. Chester Rogers has some appeal as a cheap option in GPPs.
Tyler Eifert is listed as questionable and probably is truly questionable. If he goes he has good touchdown upside, as I assume he’d be used more in the red zone than elsewhere on the field, but he still would make for a risky play.
Dwayne Washington practiced all week and will play. He’ll share time with Zach Zenner and Justin Forsett, but I do like him to lead the team in touches. He’s worth a GPP play this week.
Will Fuller will play this week against Denver, but Texan offensive players should be faded in that matchup.
Stefon Diggs will play and should have his normal snaps. His ability keeps him on the redraft radar, but he’s risky for DFS.
Joe Flacco participated in full during Friday’s practice and will play against the Jets. His presence should boost up Dennis Pitta and Mike Wallace and give Breshad Perriman some GPP appeal with Steve Smith out for this game. I personally will have Wallace in many of my cash game lineups.
Torrey Smith got a limited practice in on Friday and should be able to go. It’s a nice matchup, but he remains risky.
John Brown won’t play this week, but Carson Palmer will. Unfortunately they get a tough matchup against the Seahawks.
Eric Ebron and Theo Riddick won’t play again this week. Anquan Boldin gets a bit more touchdown upside, but Golden Tate should again see more work with Riddick not there.
Latavius Murray will play this week, but likely will just be inserted back into the committee and be rendered useless for fantasy.
Allen Hurns returned to practice on Friday and will go in a nice matchup with Oakland.
Jimmy Graham will play against the Cardinals. He had some hip pain, but he has been removed from the injury report. He does get a tough matchup against the Cardinals though.
Vincent Jackson is out and that should lead to more targets for Cameron Brate. Mike Evans of course is a great play this week, but Brate get the bigger bump.
Sample FantasyDraft Lineups
FantasyDraft Lineup Configurations
As usual, let this be your weekly reminder that we are NOT trying to win a cash game. It does not matter if we have the most points, therefore we are not looking for players with the highest ceilings. What we want are safe players with a high ceiling but, more importantly, a high floor. One reminder that I’ve forgotten to throw in there the least few weeks; ALWAYS enter your cash game lineup into at least one GPP. You want to make the most money you can out of your hard work and there is nothing more frustrating than to find you’ve only doubled your money on a killer lineup. Even if it’s only for a buck, enter your cash into a GPP.
For this week I wanted to make sure I locked down some value in my lineup so I could load up with big name players who get lots of touches. I think I’ve been able to accomplish that by using an underpriced Terrance West (18-98-1 average over the last three weeks) and Jacquizz Rodgers (huge game in his last start; faces the worst run D in the league this week with no competition for carries). Those guys are going to get RB1 opportunity for RB3 prices. Doing this allowed me to go out and secure Julio Jones, A.J. Green, and DeMarco Murray. All three are monsters in their offenses and all three have amazing matchups this weekend. While nothing in life is guaranteed, I’m pretty confident about the potential for these three guys to have monster weeks. I’m paying up for Matt Ryan at QB because there’s been nobody more consistent at that position this year, and he’s facing a depleted Chargers secondary. There’s a little bit of a concern that ATL is going to be able to run it down SD’s throats, but that’s more of a GPP issue than a cash game issue (more on that later). Hunter Henry has been averaging about 5-70-1 over his last four weeks and he’s priced way too low given that production. I just don’t see how SD can justify taking touches away from him this week. I have MIN as my defense because of how well they’ve played so far this year, but you could just as easily put DEN in that spot for a little more upside. Either one should give you enough points to keep you happy. The one concession I had to make with this lineup is using Chris Ivory as my Flex, but then I remembered what the KC backs did against OAK last week and felt a lot better about things. I actually think this is the week Ivory takes over as the lead back in JAX (Yeldon isn’t good). All it’ll take is Ivory getting one TD or 60 yards to make this play a worthwhile one. If does both, then we are really talking GPP territory with this lineup.
There are actually a number of different ways I could have taken my GPP lineups this weekend, but I settled on the QB/WR (or TE) stacks that allowed me to use RB, WR, and Flex players with huge upside. Noticeable by his absence is Marcus Mariota at the QB positon. I love Mariota this weekend, and he may make my weekend update, but right now I have some concerns about his high ownership and lack of a true playmaker to stack him with. As for the stacks I did decide to roll out, they were Ryan/Julio, Dalton/Green, Bortles/Robinson, and Kaepernick/Smith. I can already hear you signing “one of these things is not like the other.” Yes, Kaepernick and Smith might seem out of place, but look at the rest of that team: Julio Jones, David Johnson, Delanie Walker, and A.J. Green (not to mention the top priced defense). If Kap can get it going against a suspect Tampa Bay defense then this team has the potential to be my highest scoring of the week. As for the other 3 QB/WR stacks, nobody has a better matchup than these three teams. I particularly like Bortles/ARob to bounce back after an off week and be this week’s Eli/Odell combo (perhaps not to that extent, but they should produce).
At RB I pretty much stuck to my cheat sheet players and rotated around Bell, DJ, and Murray at the high end and West, Ware, Freeman, and Jacquizz as value plays. I actually consider David Johnson a value at $14k since I think he’s more comparable to high end WR1 than to high end RB1. Terrance West is my top play of the week going up against a Jets defense that isn’t very good. He’s priced like an RB3 but producing like an RB1 (18-98-1 over the last 3 weeks). All that value at RB allowed me to spend up for those QB/WR combos.
I tried not to put all my eggs in the Hunter Henry basket, but he’s been playing so well and his matchup is so good that it was hard to move off him. I didn’t mind going to Pitta in the Matt Ryan lineup, but I’m a little more wary about using Walker in the Kaepernick lineup. It’s not that I don’t think Walker will produce, I’m just not sure he’ll produce $2k more than Henry. I may end up going back and moving Walker to Henry in that lineup and upgrading elsewhere later in the week. Check back this weekend to see what I do with that.
I kept things pretty simple at WR and mostly just moved around the WR I wanted to stack into Flex or WR2 spots if I wasn’t using their QB. I snuck DJax into one lineup due to his solid matchup in DET, but for the most part kept it pretty simple with Julio, Green, Torrey Smith, and ARob for most of the other slots. I did use Justin Hunter (my gut play of the week) in my ATL lineup to allow me to go huge at the other positions. If he can get back into the end zone for a 3rd straight week then that lineup should really be solid.
I didn’t get too cute with my defenses and stuck mostly to my cheat sheet plays in DEN, KC, and TEN. I’d love to have used DEN in all my lineups but KC and TEN were such a discount that I found it hard to justify spend up for DEN and downgrading a WR or RB on those teams. I had a few extra bucks in my CIN lineup so I took a shot on HOU on Monday night against a rapidly declining Broncos offense. That could have just as easily been TEN, NE, or KC and I’d have been just as happy.
Week 7 Fantasy Draft GPP Lineups – WEEKEND UPDATE
I made a couple of changes to one of my earlier lineups as I just didn’t feel that DeSean Jackson was the right play to make at WR with his Questionable tag. I think this game is going to belong to Jamison Crowder and Vernon Davis (given DET’s issues at LB) so I went with the cheaper of the two plays in Davis and used that extra money to upgrade my Flex to Terrance West (love him this week – so underappreciated) and the Denver Broncos defense. I like KC this weekend but if I have the money to move off them for Denver, I’m going to do that every time. I know that we’ve got a lot of chalk in this lineup but Davis and West (if they do well) at under 5% owned (Davis could end up higher due to Reed being officially out) should make up for that. I really don’t have an issue using chalk if chalk is the right play to make.
UPDATE: LeSean McCoy will play.
Whereas my last lineup was very chalk-heavy, this lineup goes far away from that with 3 of my main players. On the Thursday slates, Drew Bees, Terrance West, and Antonio Brown were all 2% owned or less. I know that I’ve been the first person to say how average Drew Brees is on the road but at 2%, I don’t mind take a shot with him in my #5 lineup. He’s still Drew Brees and he’s still got the ability to win you a week. Add the fact that you’re the only guy that’s going to have him and you’ve got a perfect GPP play. Let’s take those exact same sentiments, change “road” to “Landry Jones at QB”, and you’ve got my thoughts on using Antonio Brown this weekend. For all the talk about how bad Brown is without Roethlisberger at QB, he actually had a 6 catch, 100 yard game with Jones last year. Those bad numbers all came with Michael Vick. Both Brown and Brees are not high probability plays but if both go off – congrats, you just won a GPP. Gillislee and Rodgers are two of the chalkiest plays on the slate but they should both hit their number pretty easily and their combined $14.5k is too good to pass up. Jack Doyle is shockingly popular this weekend but he’s the cheapest TE I could find that has upside and I really wanted to make sure I could swing Brees, Jones, Green, and AB. Wow, just look at those names! Houston is a defense I didn’t write much about this week but they aren’t half bad and it’s not like Denver is an offensive juggernaut. I’ve seen many a GPP won this year with a less than optimal defense and I’d much rather spend the money on my big offensive players than upgrade at D.
Sample Yahoo! Lineups
Sunday 50/50 (Updated)
Sunday GPP (Updated)
Yahoo! Lineup Configurations
I used Ty Montgomery from the Thursday night game, as he saw 12 targets last week and will likely be playing the same running back role with injuries to Eddie Lacy and James Starks. I added a stack of Matthew Stafford and Golden Tate, who will be playing in a shootout against the Redskins this week. Marvin Jones will likely be shadowed by Josh Norman, which will leave Golden Tate to dominate the rest of the Redskins cornerbacks. DeMarco Murray has looked outstanding this season, and he gets one of his easiest matchups of the season this week. Christine Michael has been an elite running back while starting, and while he gets a tough matchup this week, he has a ton of touchdown potential; plus, the matchup will likely keep him low owned. Jeremy Kerley is coming off a bad game, but he saw seven targets in that game and still comes with plenty of upside. I used a two tight end lineup because they tend to be cheap on Yahoo, and both Delanie Walker and Hunter Henry both come with great upside. Last, the Bengals defense fits into the lineup, and they get a great matchup against the Browns this week.
This is an interesting week. I started this lineup with a stack of Marcus Mariota, DeMarco Murray, and Delanie Walker, who are the three main parts of the Titans offense. They are favorites and have one of the highest team totals on the slate. Frank Gore is a safe option, as he plays a ton of snaps and the Colts also have an extremely high team total in this game. Dorial Green-Backham may come as shocking, but he played his highest percentage of snaps last week, and that snap count will likely continue to grow, which is a good sign for someone that is the minimum price. Kenny Britt and Jamison Crowder are two players that are consistent, and make better cash game plays than tournament options, although they both do come with great upside for their price tags. I added the Vikings defense, who should have no problems slowing down a struggling Eagles offense. All that allowed me to use Rob Gronkowski, who has looked like his old self in each of his last two games.
Tom Brady has been on a tear since coming back from suspension, and he’s finally in a game with a team that has the weapons to keep up with him, although they take a major hit with Roethlisberger out. I stacked Brady with James White and Rob Gronkowski, who have both been playing well recently, and Brady loves throwing to them. Once again, I used Dorial Green-Beckham, who is a bit too cheap for how many snaps he is going to play. Terrance West, Golden Tate, and Michael Thomas are also cheap options that all have great touchdown upside. They all get good matchups this week, including West, as David Johnson recently tore apart the Jets’ run defense. I used the Bengals defense again as they get an elite matchup against a weak Browns offense. Last, Mike Evans fits into the lineup, and he is a player that always comes with great upside, especially against a defense like the 49ers.
Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters. As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience. To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. There are instructions on the first sheet. If you have any questions whatsoever about how to use the optimizer, or if it’s not working for you, e-mail me at email@example.com. I’ll do my best to get back to you right away. If you don’t have Excel 2010 or later, then shoot me an e-mail with constraints you want, and I’ll run it for you. Also, if you have any ideas for things you’d want to see included in future iterations of this, then I’d also love to hear about them! Thanks, and have fun!!
NOTES: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include. DeSean Jackson was a regular when I ran the initial lineups. I left him out given his questionable status, but you could certainly put him back in here when you rerun the models.
If you have any questions at all, shoot me an e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org. Good luck this week!
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||FanDraf||Yahoo||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Defense Opp FanDraf Yahoo Off Points Sack Int Fum Rec DefTD RetTD FPPG
New England Patriots HOU $7,800 $20 16.9 2 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 8.4
Atlanta Falcons SEA $5,000 $16 21.6 2.6 0.8 0.4 0 0 6.2
Pittsburgh Steelers @KC $5,600 $13 22.2 2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 4.8
Dallas Cowboys GB $5,200 $12 27.0 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
Kansas City Chiefs PIT $6,700 $19 24.4 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0 3.9
Green Bay Packers @DAL $5,500 $13 26.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 0 0 3.2
Seattle Seahawks @ATL $5,900 $16 31.9 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 2.6
Houston Texans @NE $4,600 $10 27.2 1.5 0.1 0.6 0 0 2.5
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART
You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|