Week 6 DFS Cheat Sheet: UPDATED
October 12, 2014 | Chet
Welcome to Week 6 of The Fake Football DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Guru Rich Hribar, Ian Goldsmith and myself, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, Fantasy Elite and Draftday, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those four. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
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Sample FanDuel Lineups(by Rich Hribar)
FanDuel Lineup Configurations
You can really mix and match the recommend plays this week to suit your style with so many options that are great on each price level. For Thursday, the Colts offense is in play if you choose to use them, but the only guy I’ll have any exposure to is T.Y. Hilton in Thursday double ups. Arian Foster is out there for tournament play if you want to swap out Forte and bump up to Manny Sanders if you wish, but on a short week, I’m not really comfortable using Foster despite the great matchup.
Even if it’s for only one week, the time is right to use Branden Oliver at his cost. He should see somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 overall touches in a game that should feature plenty of favorable game script for San Diego. Matt Forte is a must play for me in cash games this weekend, and I’d love to pair him with Lynch but I don’t feel comfortable with any of the receiver combinations that stem from the cause and effect for double up games. I prefer Julio to Demaryius this week, but I had an extra $100 to make the roster uniform. If you want to swap him out and avoid variance from having two Denver pass catchers, no worries there. Tate and Welker are strong cash game plays at their cost this week and Eli has hit value for a month straight.
The non Oliver lineup feature two cheaper back who are expected to see lots of work this weekend against soft run defenses. Green Bay has had stellar secondary play so far, so Miami would be wise to ride Lamar Miller to avoid the Packer offense putting them on tilt early in the game. The loose change from the backs allows an upgrade to Jay Cutler, who is as safe as they come for fantasy purposes.
This isn’t the usual dash of splash that you see in a tournament lineup, but there’s major touchdown upside here from Gronk, Randle, Lynch and Maclin. Flacco is my favorite cheap quarterback of the weekend and project him to throw multiple scores. He does have a nice stacking options in Steve Smith and Torrey Smith for those brave enough to use him.
Sunday Early Only
With most of my favorite running back plays going in the later games, I’m just going to pay up for Peyton Manning to be the anchor of my early cash teams. The offense is different is this season, so I don’t anticipate Joique Bell to command that many more touches with Reggie Bush out as Theo Riddick will likely be used in some lesser version of his role , but the price is right to get a back into this lineup that has touchdown and reception upside. At receiver, Antonio Brown is as bankable as they come and now Joe Hayden’s presence is questionable coming into today. Mohamed Sanu already had 29 percent of the Bengals targets in their past two games with A.J. Green active, so volume should be on his side with Green inactive today.
Sample DraftDay Lineups (by Chet Gresham)
DraftDay Lineup Configurations
Cash Lineups: I have Branden Oliver in all of my lineups this week since it looks like he’ll be the main back again since the Chargers signed Ronnie Brown. He will see plenty of work against a poor Raiders defense both on the ground and through the air and his price is good. The other value running back I will have in all my lineups is Ben Tate. The Browns showed they are going to stick with him even with the two rookies that played well in his place and he takes on a Steelers team that the Browns ran all over in their first meeting, oh, and he’s just 7,850! Philip Rivers is one of my favorite plays this week as the Raiders were just carved up by Tannehill and Rivers has been playing as well as any QB in the league. The Browns defense has been very nice to opposing players and Roethlisberger has already thrown for 365 yards against them and Bell has already put up 197 yards and a touchdown against them. Locker and Whitehurst combined for three passing and one rushing TD against them last week and Joe Haden is hurting. Delanie Walker is another staple for me this week. It doesn’t really matter who is QB for the Titans because either has found Walker this season. Walker has the fourth most DD points per game for TEs and is priced as the eight best. Plus he takes on a Jags team giving up 74 yards and a touchdown per game to tight ends. DeSean Jackson isn’t my favorite play on DD, but his price is so low that I;m happy to take him this week against a banged up Cardinals defense. Wes Welker is the kind of player I like to take at DD because you know he’s going to get his receptions and at 1 PPR that’s valuable. Andre Williams is another cheap running back who gets a decent matchup, especially with the Eagles Demeco Ryans hurting. If Calvin Johnson is out it’s going to be hard not to roster Golden Tate. His price isn’t great, but his upside with Megatron is. I like Roddy White and Brandon Marshall to put up big numbers for their now depressed prices in their game which has the highest over/under this weekend. I wish I could fit more players from that game into my lineups. Sammy Watkins is another player I’m wanting on more of my teams. Orton targeted him 12 times in their first game together and I don’t see that trend stopping. Blake Bortles is good and he’s going to help the Jags long term, but his supporting cast and his rookieness are kicking in right now. I like the Titans to get a few turnovers in this one. It’s not going to be pretty, but sometimes that leads to big D/ST scores.
Tourney Lineup: Austin Davis is a wildcard, but he’s been putting up plenty of passes and points and the 49ers are going to devour the run. Davis fumbled twice while getting sacked last week, but still put up huge numbers. He’s what makes this a tourney lineup for the most part and I added the Ravens defense and Justin Forsett. The Ravens have a top 5 defense according to PFF and they pressure the QB well, but they just haven’t been getting the sacks. I think they can get to Glennon and even though I like him, this isn’t the Saints defense. Forsett has won the RB job and gets enough work in the passing game to keep his floor pretty high, especially with 1 PPR.
Tourney Lineup 2: Really the reason this is a tourney lineup is Davante Adams. I feel the rest of the roster is pretty safe and I love the upside of Gronk, so I needed to punt with Adams, but I also think Adams might have his breakout game this week. He got a TD last week and Rodgers was praising him this week. Russell Wilson is a little risky if they just go full Beast Mode against Dallas’ weak run defense.
Cash Lineup 3: I still like the early cash lineups, but I wanted to divest from Roethlisberger and get a big chunk of the Falcons/Bears game, which is in a dome with two pass first teams with the highest over/under of the day. So Ryan and Cutler are my QBs and Marshall is my WR from the group. I thought about getting Hester into my GPP if you are looking to diversify. I’m loving Sanders this week. He’s averaging a crazy 8 receptions and 100+ yards per game, but he hasn’t found the end zone yet. I think Peyton does his best to help him out there this week.
Sample Draftkings Lineups (by Ian Goldsmith)
Draftkings Lineup Configurations
I’m not playing any players from Thursday’s lineups this week. This is not to say that you shouldn’t, but I don’t feel that this matchup offers the value that previous Thursday lineups have offered. If you want to use Luck to anchor a 50/50 team, go ahead. He is in a rhythm right now and, frankly, looks nearly unstoppable. A Colts stack could work here, but Luck spreads the ball out to so many receivers that you are not going to get the upside that an Austin Davis/Brian Quick got you this past weekend. An intriguing play could be to use Ahmad Bradshaw. His price is only $4900 and his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield will be necessary for Luck to spread the defense and make T-Rich more effective running inside. Bradshaw certainly has big upside and will not kill your team as he is solid in PPR formats, averaging 3.6 catches per game. Even if you avoid this matchup, enter some Thursday games. People are always tempted to play Thursday players, even if they are not advised. This gives the patient a big advantage come Sunday.
There are quite a few players in the $6000-$7000 range that offer consistency this week. I fully expect the Lions to sit Megatron (keep an eye on injury news, obviously), which means Golden Tate once again has a chance to have a monster game. With his price only creeping up to $6300, he is my favorite 50/50 WR on the board this week. Ronnie Hillman should get the start for the Broncos. At minimum price, he is going to be on a majority of my teams. He isn’t the best runner, but that offense is just way too efficient to shy away from the starting RB. At the very least, he should have several chances near the goal line. Branden Oliver’s price jumped more than I expected, but he showed me enough this week to make me feel that the Chargers are comfortable with him in the backfield. He was heavily involved in the passing game, which is a bonus in a full PPR scoring system. Emmanuel Sanders might have the best matchup of any Bronco this week. The Jets, while horrific against the pass, are surprisingly good against #1 WRs. If the Jets try to shut down DT (good luck), then Sanders will take advantage. Manning already loves the guy, which is evident in the fact he has at least six catches in every game so far.
I have two tournament lineups for you this week. The first is definitely riskier, but I think the players will be owned at a much lower percentage, which can be a boon in a huge tournament. Torrey Smith has been underwhelming, to say the least. He is the type of player, however, that can have a big game out of nowhere. Flacco clearly has loved getting him the ball in the past. He has a great matchup, is angry and itching to get involved, and is only $4100. Luke Wilson is filling in at TE for the Seahawks while Zach Miller is out. He doesn’t block as well as Miller, but offers better athleticism and has a tremendous matchup against Dallas. In the other lineup, I’m going with a NY Giants stack. When your QB plays against Philly, you start him. Starting Eli could result in a huge week. I love stacking him this week with Donnell, whose price drastically dropped after a week with 0 points. He will have low ownership and we all know the type of upside he offers.
This has been an interesting week with running back news. Early on in the week I was heavily leaning towards starting Hillman at RB for minimum salary. While I still think he’s an OK tournament play, the availability of Joique Bell for Sunday has forced me to change most of my lineups. Joique is a PPR beast and will thrive this week with Bush out. His price has fallen all the way to $3700, which is simply a steal. He is by far my top value play of the week as things now stand. Shonn Greene is out for Tennessee, which means that Bishop Sankey should get the lion’s share of carries for the Titans.
Roddy White will have a lot of one-on-one coverage this week. I think he and Julio have the chance for a field day. Pairing them with Matt Ryan, though pricey at $8600, could well pay off. Gronkowski is my #1 TE this week. He is fully healthy and should easily play at least 80% of the snaps. He has played Buffalo six times in his career. He has caught at least one TD in each game, for a total of 9. Insane. He is priced well below Thomas and should be added liberally to your lineups. You could actually pair the two this week, especially in cash games.
Ellington will be leaned on heavily this week. Even though Washington is solid against the run, Andre will be able to beat them catching passes out of the backfield. In the same game, Pierre Garcon has a fantastic matchup. In fact, pairing him with Cousins could be a sneaky tournament play. DJAX is worth a look, too, at only $4900. We all saw the kind of potential he offers when he torched Seattle.
Fantasy Elite Drafting Ranks
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
If the Matchup Machine isn’t sortable for you, here are the same stats in Excel that are sortable: Week 6 Sortable Matchup Stats
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
|DEP||Running Backs||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Att||Yds||YPC||RuTD||Rec||Target||Yds||RecTD||Tot Yds||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
|DEP||Tight Ends||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
|Defense||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Sack||Int||Fum Rec||Pts Allow||FP/%DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
|New England Patriots||IND||$3,200||$8,650||$4,900||7||1.8||1||0.9||27.9||2.188||0.809||1.429|
|Green Bay Packers||@SEA||$2,900||$8,400||$4,700||5.3||2.6||0.4||0.4||23.8||1.828||0.631||1.128|
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.