Week 6 DFS Cheat Sheet: FantasyDraft and Yahoo! (UPDATED)
October 16, 2016 | Ian Goldsmith
Welcome to Week 6 of the 2016 The Fake Football FantasyDraft and Yahoo! DFS Cheat Sheet!
. With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Doug Shain, Chet Gresham, and Justin Bales we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FantasyDraft and Yahoo!, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news. And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our a sheet from last season to see what you get.
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Dez Bryant says he feels good enough to play, but still remains a game-time decision.
Will Fuller isn’t expected to play tonight. DeAndre Hopkins and Lamar Miller should see all the work they can handle.
Dwayne Washington won’t play today. Zach Zenner and Justin Forsett wills split work. This situation is tough for fantasy.
Kelvin Benjamin, Rob Gronkowski, LeGarrette Blount, Martellus Bennett, Julian Edelman, Gary Barnidge, Jonathan Stewart, and Mike Wallace will all play today.
There are some weather concerns on the west coast this Sunday. Seattle has a high wind warming for Saturday night, but it will be decreasing from crazy gusts up to 50 mph to a slightly more reasonable 16-23 mph during the day with a 60 percent chance of rain. I’m pretty much okay with that for the passing games, but I will be checking on the on field reports Sunday morning.
The other rainy spot will be in Oakland, where the wind will be gusting around 20 mph with a 60 percent chance of rain. I could see the wind hurting Alex Smith’s weaker arm, but he also doesn’t pass down the field too far to test that wind or his arm, so he could still be fine in a good matchup.
Jonathan Stewart practiced all week and should start in a great matchup against the Saints worst run defense in the league. The team does want Cam Newton to protect himself more, so there’s a chance Stewart at least gets a few more goal line attempts moving forward. Of course, if he has any trouble, they would quickly go back to Newton and his usually great success rate at the goal line.
Theo Riddick will not play Sunday against the Rams due to an injured ankle and Dwayne Washington is listed as questionable after returning to a limited practice on Friday. Beat reporter Michael Rothstein believes Washington will end up playing and splitting time with newly acquired Justin Forsett. This is a situation to monitor, but I don’t expect there is enough upside here to cash in on.
Dolphins coach Adam Gase said Friday that Arian Foster will be a game-time decision against the Steelers on Sunday. If he can’t go Jay Ajayi would likely get the start. The Steelers should get a lead in this one and their run defense is their strength. Foster has the most upside if he can play though, as he would likely be heavily used in the passing game.
Rashad Jennings is listed as questionable, but expects to play after missing the last three weeks due to an injured thumb. The Ravens defense has been tough this season, especially against the run. If he does play I would stay away and maybe lean toward Bobby Rainey, especially in PPR leagues.
Dez Bryant got limited practices in this week and is listed as questionable for Sunday night’s game against the Packers. He appears to be a game-time decision and we may not know if he’ll go until he warms up. Unless we hear otherwise earlier, I’d stay away from him for fantasy this week.
Steve Smith is doubtful for their game against the Giants. That designation is better than OUT as we look toward the future, but he will not go this week. Mike Wallace, Dennis Pitta, Kamar Aiken and Breshad Perriman all could see an uptick, but it’s tough to know who will see the most.
Sammie Coates practiced in full on Friday, but it was also revealed that he has a broken index finger to go with the cut on his left hand. Markus Wheaton is out for this game with a shoulder injury, so if Coates does play, his upside is high. If he doesn’t, Eli Rogers should make for a decent play, as he is now completely off the injury report after missing the last two games.
Jordan Reed has a concussion and is listed as questionable, but it would be a minor miracle if he played. Vernon Davis and Niles Paul figure to share TE duties in Reed’s absence, but neither is worth a fantasy play against the Eagles defense this week. This should help Jamison Crowder the most, but also the Eagles D/ST.
Carson Palmer practiced in full this week and will be good to go in a great matchup with the Jets on Monday night. I’ll be playing a few Monday night included DFS games to get Palmer and John Brown in my lineups.
Cam Newton is listed as questionable, but did get a full practice in on Friday and will play unless there is some kind of setback. Last season Newton threw for 331 yards, five touchdowns to just one interception and ran for 49 yards in the Superdome.
Jay Cutler is still out, so Brian Hoyer will go for his fourth straight 300 plus yard game, this week at home against the Jaguars. Cameron Meredith, Alshon Jeffery, Zach Miller and Eddie Royal should all suit up this week, with Royal looking the iffiest.
Cody Kessler will start for the Browns against the Titans on Sunday. He has been average, but that’s better than many of the alternatives. He should be able to keep Terrelle Pryor, Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson at least fantasy relevant.
James Starks hurt his knee on Tuesday and then had to leave due to a death in his family and has now been ruled out for this week. . Eddie Lacy on the other hand did get three limited practices in this week. He is listed as questionable and was non-committal when asked if he’ll play, but after the practices, there’s a good chance he suits up and without Starks to take away some receptions, he should see an uptick in work.
Latavius Murray has been ruled out with turf toe for the second straight week. DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard figure to share backfield duties again this Sunday. They split work evenly last week, but Richard was more productive. Kansas City has allowed a 4.8 yards per carry mark on the ground this season, so both backs have some upside in a game where they might get extra use due to wind.
Jeremy Hill started this week with his arm in a sling, but practiced all week and isn’t on the injury report. He should be fine to go, but game flow is probably more in Giovani Bernard’s favor this week, as the Patriots will likely get the lead and the Bengals will need to be in pass mode without Tyler Eifert and with Belichick’s defense probably keying on A.J. Green.
Julius Thomas put in a full week of practice and is not listed on the injury report. He has some nice upside this week in Chicago. He’s a must start in redraft and a decent DFS play for his touchdown potential.
Eric Ebron remains out with ankle and knee injuries. Anquan Boldin should see a slight jump in value.
Sample FantasyDraft Lineups
FantasyDraft Lineup Configurations
As usual, let’s start with the reminder that we are not looking to have the highest score possible with our cash game lineup. We are looking to limit risk to make sure we get players that will score enough to put us in the top 50% of our league. One thing I was reminded of today by fellow TFF writer, the great Justin Edwards (@lowercase11), was that we don’t always have to just think about the high floor a player can bring us. If we have players, like Ben Roethlisberger, that have a high enough ceiling then that makes up a lot for some of the risks we may end up putting into our cash lineups. There’s a case to be made that you’re a lot safer with Antonio Brown and Cameron Meredith than you are with Jeremy Maclin and DeAndre Hopkins (both of whom I like this week but the prices worked out for the comparison). That’s the great thing about DFS – there’s more than one way to skin a cat. That said, I love the matchups for both Maclin and Hopkins so they are in my cash lineups this weekend. I am a big fan of targets when I’m looking at my cash team and Maclin and Hopkins both bring those to the table. It helps that both guys are playing terrible pass defenses. I could have used Drew Brees at QB but I’d rather save the few bucks and go with the guy that has the better offense surrounding him and is playing hotter in Big Ben. He’s been gold for a while now and I’m just going to ride him until the stops producing. I’m using McCoy everywhere this weekend as his price/matchup/motivation (he hates Chip) are too good to pass up. I’m stacking him with the Bills defense with the expectation that BUF is going to be up big and grinding out clock. Jordan Howard is priced too low for the versatility he brings and how his team uses him in this offense. He’s a $13k guy at a $11.7k price tag. James White all of the sudden became useful in the NE offence once Brady showed up. No shock there as Brady loves to use his RB in the passing game. I expect much of the same this weekend. In a twist for me I’m going to be using a 2 TE package to take advantage of two guys who I think can put up WR2 stats for WR3 (or WR4) prices. Graham has been a beast his last two games and Walker faces the Browns as the de facto #1 WR for TEN. They are both low risk options at their price tags that allowed me to go big at RB, QB, and WR.
Just like last week you’re getting double the lineups with half the blah, blah. Also like last week, I’m going to try to target QB/pass catcher stacks I can use to boost my GPP standings. We were able to hit with Brady/Bennett, Rivers/Benjamin, and if you stacked Big Ben/Coates you did really well too. This week those stacks for me are Wilson/Graham, Eli/OBJ, Mariota/Walker, and Bortles/ARob. I feel like these players give us the most bang for our buck at a relatively low ownership. Obviously you can use a PIT or OAK stack to the same effectiveness but I think the ownership is going to be too high there. I backed off on using a CHI or KC stack because of a lack of trust in one of the two halves of those stacks (CHI WR and KC QB). At RB I’m using McCoy just about everywhere and using a rotation of players that I’ve spotlighted in the Cheat Sheets and the Hail Mary (Zeke, Lamar Miller, White, Bell, Riddick, Howard, and Sproles). I don’t know why this is, but I just can’t find a way to put together a lineup that gets me exposure to DeMarco Murray but he’s a guy I love this weekend. I guess my biggest issue with Murray is that he’ll be very widely owned and I always try to avoid that. What you’ll notice about my RB is that they either get a heavy workload or they catch a lot of passes (ideally both). Touches equal points. The WR I’m using are also from the same rotation that you’ll find in my other pieces with Maclin, Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins, Rishard Matthews, and TY Hilton as the main players beside the QB/WR stacks. I’m really high on Austin this week because of his price and the fact that DET can’t really stop speed. LA is pushing him hard and I think this is the week he gets into the end zone. I’m warming up to TY Hilton as well because of his penchant for going H.A.M. when he plays in Houston. I don’t know why he does that but the numbers don’t lie. I kept it simple with high end TE this weekend (Graham, Kelce, Gronk, and Walker). As I said in the cash game write up, they give you WR2 numbers for WR3 (or WR4) prices. That’s hard to pass up and since they fit so nicely into my lineup I felt no need to go value hunting (Lance Kendrick and Jesse James would be the value if I needed it). If you can afford it I’d suggest using Buffalo in every lineup as your defense but I also wouldn’t downgrade a player you love just to fit in that defense. As you can see I have a different D in every lineup based on who else I was able to fit there. Yes, it’s just a defense but let’s not forget that they score points and you still want them to hit that value for you. Don’t throw just anyone in there without giving it at least some thought.
Clearly, I think the Raiders/Chiefs game is going to be a high scoring affair. Based on the Thursday slate data, Derek Carr is at about half the ownership of Alex Smith. I think that’s nuts but I’m going to take full advantage of it and go with the 2016 version of the Mad Bomber. Oakland is not going to stop throwing against anyone this year and I love that kind of volume for Carr. He is a borderline elite fantasy QB and all that was missing in the early weeks this year were the TD’s. Well, those have come and now he’s going to show what he can do (think 300 yards, 2 TD as a baseline). This weekend he’s going to continue to feed Amari Cooper as Michael Crabtree is going to be locked in a battle with Marcus Peters. I can see Cooper equaling or surpassing his numbers from last weekend. I kept it pretty safe at RB and just went with 2 of my top 5 guys in McCoy and Miller. I know that McCoy is going to have an ownership percentage of nearly 50% but the matchup is too good to pass up. Miller should be in the 25% range but, like McCoy, I expect big things against a bad Colts D. Jeremy Maclin is one of my favorite WR plays against the worst pass defense in the league. He’s a target hog and, while he lacks upside, he has a nice floor that won’t kill my GPP. The interesting thing I did here was go with a 3 TE formation. This feels like one of those weeks where we are going to see TE bust out all over the place and you’re going to get WR2 numbers for WR3/4 prices. I couldn’t fit Gronk onto this team but I’m more than happy to go ahead and fire up Walker/Kelce/Graham. I have a little bit of trepidation about using both Maclin and Kelce but if there ever was a week to do that, it’d be this week against the Raiders. Finally, I’m not messing around with my defense so I’ll join the herd and fire away with the Bills against Colin Kaepernick. I’m hoping that the McCoy ownership and the Bills D ownership don’t overlap too much so I can benefit from both while my opponents only benefit from one of the plays.
Sample Yahoo! Lineups
Sunday 50/50 (Updated)
Sunday GPP (Updated)
Yahoo! Lineup Configurations
I started this line with a stack of Derek Carr and Amari Cooper, who are coming off a big week and get another great matchup against the Chiefs this week. The Raiders are small favorites, and this game should feature a ton of points. Lamar Miller gets an elite matchup against the Colts, who have struggled against the run this season. Jordan Howard has looked outstanding in his short time on the field this season, and that will likely continue this week. The Ravens recently fired their offensive coordinator, and the new OC loves taking shots down the field, which will help Mike Wallace this week. Brice Butler and Jeremy Kerley are still cheap options, but they are both fairly big parts of their offenses, and should see plenty of targets this week. Jimmy Graham has been a huge part of the Seahawks offense over their last two games, and he is a cheaper tight end with elite upside. Last, the Bills’ defense fit into the lineup, and they have looked great in terms of fantasy this season.
This lineup began with Brian Hoyer and Cameron Meredith, who are both a bit too cheap for how well they played last week and the roles they will be playing this week. I paid up at running back with Lamar Miller and Le’Veon Bell, who will both be playing big roles for their teams this weekend. I opted to use two tight ends, who have both been seeing quite a few targets each week, and they also both come with great upside. Jeremy Kerley was another cheap option, who is essentially his team’s entire passing game. Terrelle Pryor Sr. continues to impress as a wide receiver, and he gets one of the easiest matchups of the week against the Titans. Last, the Lions’ defense fit into the lineup, and they have one of the best Vegas lines on the slate.
Tom Brady should have no problems tearing through defenses this season, and it looked as if Marty B was his favorite target, as Gronk seems to still be a bit hampered by his injury. Carlos Hyde and DeMarco Murray are both volume running backs, and they both come with elite upside because of their touchdown potential. John Brown, Cameron Meredith, and Brice Butler are three wide receivers that are too cheap for the upside they produce. They should also all have big roles for their respective teams this week. Amari Cooper is coming off a huge week for the Raiders, and he has another good matchup this week. Last, the Lions fits into the lineup, and they are a cheap defense with good upside because of their matchup against Case Keenum and the Rams.
Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters. As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience. To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. There are instructions on the first sheet. If you have any questions whatsoever about how to use the optimizer, or if it’s not working for you, e-mail me at email@example.com. I’ll do my best to get back to you right away. If you don’t have Excel 2010 or later, then shoot me an e-mail with constraints you want, and I’ll run it for you. Also, if you have any ideas for things you’d want to see included in future iterations of this, then I’d also love to hear about them! Thanks, and have fun!!
NOTES: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include. For instance, I’m not keen on using the New Orleans DST this week, so I would remove them using the filters on the optimizer and then run it again. The projections for New Orleans DST were likely made assuming Cam Newton was still out, as such they got a bump based on potentially facing Derek Anderson. Similarly, I think projections are too high for Theo Riddick. As such, when I run the optimizer for myself, I exclude him.
Update!: Theo Riddick is OUT! So, run your optimizer without him!!! I will re-post optimized lineups for those that included him above. Justin Forsett is only available on FanDuel this weekend, otherwise he’d make an interesting, albeit very risky, punt play.
If you have any questions at all, shoot me an e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org. Good luck this week!
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||FanDraf||Yahoo||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Defense Opp FanDraf Yahoo Off Points Sack Int Fum Rec DefTD RetTD FPPG
New England Patriots HOU $7,800 $20 16.9 2 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 8.4
Atlanta Falcons SEA $5,000 $16 21.6 2.6 0.8 0.4 0 0 6.2
Pittsburgh Steelers @KC $5,600 $13 22.2 2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 4.8
Dallas Cowboys GB $5,200 $12 27.0 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
Kansas City Chiefs PIT $6,700 $19 24.4 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0 3.9
Green Bay Packers @DAL $5,500 $13 26.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 0 0 3.2
Seattle Seahawks @ATL $5,900 $16 31.9 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 2.6
Houston Texans @NE $4,600 $10 27.2 1.5 0.1 0.6 0 0 2.5
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART
You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|