Week 6 DFS Cheat Sheet (UPDATED)
October 17, 2015 | Chet
Welcome to Week 6 of The Fake Football DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Chet Gresham, Ian Goldsmith and Doug Shain, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, and Fantasy Aces, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those three. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our Week 1 Cheat Sheet to see what you get.
Draftkings 100% Deposit Bonus
INJURY REPORT (10/18):
Steve Smith Sr. WILL play today. Upgrade Joe Flacco and downgrade Kamar Aiken.
Martellus Bennett and Alshon Jeffery will play.
Matt Jones is out.
Percy Harvin is out.
Isaiah Crowell will play, as will Robert Turin.
Davante Adams will not play.
Dion Lewis is slated to play, but the Patriots will test him out pregame to be 100% sure.
Justin Forsett will play.
T.J. Yeldon will not play. Toby Gerhart and Denard Robinson will split work. Denard has a higher upside.
Sammy Watkins will play.
Andrew Luck still on track to play.
INJURY REPORT (10/16):
Andrew Luck got in a full practice on Friday, which points to him playing, as well as many reports that he most likely will play. It isn’t a mortal lock, but I’m going with it. Hilton and Moncrief get a nice bump in what should be a game where Luck throws the ball a ton, while trying to keep up with Tom Brady.
The Browns will be without free safety Tashuan Gibson and cornerback Joe Haden as they face the Broncos. That’s good news for Peyton Manning, but Cleveland looks like they will have sustained winds around 20 mph. If that turns out to be true, Manning’s arm will hold him back.
Steve Smith Senior won’t play against the 49ers, which gives Kamar Aiken another shot as the No. 1 receiver. He will have DFS appeal for his cheap price and continue to run him out there in redraft with such a tasty matchup.
Martellus Bennett did not practice on Friday due to a quad injury. Suffering a new injury during the week and not being able to go on Friday is a big problem for his Sunday status. I wouldn’t expect him to go. Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal on the other hand, were able to get in limited practices and are both questionable, but seemingly a much more positive “questionable” than Bennett’s. The only truly healthy receiver is Marquess Wilson, but Royal and Jeffery would play ahead of him if they can go. It’s a bit of a mess, but I like whoever is able to start in this game.
King Dunlap will be out once again, as well as the Chargers center and two other linemen are questionable. Add that to the Packers’ defense getting to quarterbacks often, and you have some trouble for Rivers. His quick release is helpful and he has good underneath targets if Green Bay brings the blitz, so it’s not all horrible.
T.J. Yeldon is still a game time decision, but Yeldon said there is a strong possibility he will play. This dampens the possibility of streaming Denard Robinson, but keep an eye on the news as usual.
All systems seem to be go for Marshawn Lynch. He gets a tough matchup, but it looks like he will be getting all his normal snaps. He’s a must start in redraft, but still risky in DFS.
Randall Cobb looks like he’ll be dealing with his shoulder problem all year. He’s still a top receiver, but it’s worth keeping an eye on for DFS purposes going forward.
Carlos Hyde is questionable, but coach Tomsula says he will play. Without Reggie Bush, he will continue to be an every down back, which, if Colin Kaepernick can play like he did last week, would give Hyde enough work to have good upside.
Jarius Wright is probable, while Charles Johnson is questionable. If Johnson is out, Wright could see some extra work against an easy pass defense.
The Lions backfield is a mess, with Ameer Abdullah unable to hold onto the ball, Theo Riddick missing Friday’s practice, and Joique Bell just coming off his injury. If any of these players were the every down back we could pencil them in for a good game here, but the odds that one of these guys takes off is slim.
Justin Forsett says he feels a lot better after returning to practice on Friday and is hopeful he can play against the 49ers. If this happens it kills our Buck Allen cheap DFS play and keeps us from using Forsett in case he aggravates the injury. In redraft, it means you play Forsett as long as he’s active.
Davante Adams admitted that he’s “not sure” he’ll play Sunday versus San Diego. If he can’t go, this boosts James Jones and Randall Cobb, with Jones being my favorite play for DFS purposes. It also keeps Ty Montgomery in the mix as the No. 3 receiver and a possible redraft play.
Dion Lewis has an abdomen problem. Don’t we all! No? Oh, okay. He was limited Thursday and Friday and is listed as questionable. The Boston Herald doesn’t really know what is up and that has me concerned. I’ll be taking him out of my DFS lineups just to be safe, but I’d still feel okay about him in redraft for now. If we had any clue that he would really be out, LeGarrette Blount would be a great start, but as it is, I’d only be willing to bump Blount up a bit.
Eric Ebron is out and Theo Riddick is iffy at best, which should give Golden Tate a ton of targets against a weak pass defense. He’s a sneaky DFS play this week.
Mike Wallace was able to practice on Thursday and Friday and appears to be a full go. He has a great matchup and will be on many of my DFS teams.
John Brown saw limited practices on Thursday and Friday, but is listed as probable. He’s a great start against the Steelers.
Ryan Mathews was limited in Friday’s practice due to a groin injury. He has looked like the better runner between himself and Demarco Murray, but this could mean we see Murray continue to see the majority of the running back work.
Blake Bortles has a balky shoulder, but was able to practice and is listed as probable. It’s a bit worrisome for a quarterback who already has issues with accuracy and it will be a bit breezy in Jacksonville. Keep an eye on the weather there if you are looking to use Bortles in a DFS tournament.
Tyrod Taylor is a game time decision, but E.J. Manuel practiced with the first team all week. Rex Ryan could easily throw Taylor in the mix, but it seems unlikely right now.
LeSean McCoy looks like he’ll play, but admitted he wasn’t 100 percent. I’m staying away.
The Bears will be without cornerback Antrel Rolle and linebacker Shea McClellin on Sunday. Detroit has been playing horribly, but has also faced three tough defenses in a row. Don’t be afraid of Megatron and Golden Tate in DFS this week. And if you can stomach it, Matthew Stafford is worth a DFS tournament contrarian play.
Stevie Johnson remains out. Dontrelle Inman will take his place, but a few more targets should be funneled to Keenan Allen and Antonio Gates.
Ben Roethlisberger teased us with limited practices this week, but he won’t be able to play and instead we get to see Mike Vick throw to who knows where. Le’Veon Bell is the only safe fantasy play.
Odell Beckham Jr. has yet to practice this week, but coach Tom Coughlin says he doesn’t need to practice if he’s ready to go Monday night. He’s risky for sure and a non-starter in DFS, but in redraft, you can roster Dwayne Harris and wait on OBJ.
Matt Jones has a toe problem that limited him in practice and has him questionable against the Jets. This matchup makes it tough for even healthy players, so Jones is dead to us, but Alfred Morris and Chris Thompson would get his work, but against the Jets I doubt Morris is able to get things going between the tackles. That bodes well for Thompson, who will be needed for Kirk Cousins to throw toward while being sacked.
Sammy Watkins is listed as questionable, but all signs point to him playing and he better be ready after complaining about not getting enough targets. He has the squeaky wheel syndrome; so don’t be surprised if he gets his wish.
DeSean Jackson felt a twinge in his hamstring this week, but was able to return to practice. He’s listed as questionable, but is looking good to play. He would most likely get the Revis treatment if he does play, so I’m staying away for now.
Sample FanDuel Lineups
Thursday Cash: Going with the chalk plays here. Brady and Gronk are possibly the safest plays, while also being the highest upside plays I’ve seen in a while. Freeman will be owned everywhere, but with this matchup it’s hard not to. Lacy is a bit riskier as he’s had trouble getting going, bur San Diego’s pitiful run D should remedy that. Going cheap at WR to pay up for Gronk. Snead looks to be a safe play in what should be a high scoring affair. Wallace gets the easiest pass defense in the league right now at home against KC. And Brown is safe enough to put in, while also having tremendous upside.
Sunday Cash: I like this Arizona stack and if Big Ben plays I like it even more. We really haven’t seen Palmer need to go all out for 4 quarters, except against the Rams. The Steelers defense is not close to the Rams. Foster looks prime for a big game now on his third game back. The Jags just let Sims and Martin go ballistic and Foster will get the majority of the work. Lewis continues to be a safe play for a decent price. If we see a lot of Blount, it will be because Lewis has already done damage. Edelman is so safe I can’t stand how safe he is. I didn’t have Gates in my write up due to the Packers good D against tight ends, but when making my lineups it was a bit too enticing to go after Gates for his price.
Sunday Updated GPP: It’s looking more likely that Justin Forsett will play, so Buck Allen most likely won’t be a good start. So I pivoted from him and went for a Lions stack, cuz they’re just so good! I kid, I kid! But the Bears defense has been bad and this week they’ll be without their best linebacker and best cornerback. I think Stafford gets it done after three horrid games against Seattle, Denver and Arizona.
Sunday 1PM Only 50/50 Lineup: Palmer and Fitz should have an easy time of it against the Steelers poor secondary. Forte and Peterson are set up for solid games. Tate should see extra targets with Ebron and likely Riddick out. Cameron is a bit risky and I also like Delanie Walker for the same price and could see splitting this into two lineups with that pivot. Gould in the dome against the Lions poor defense seems like a nice pivot from Novak, who I like, but I’m getting a bit worried about the wind in Jacksonville. The Cardinals could put up a huge number against Michael Vick if they make him pass in the 4th quarter.
Sample DraftKings Lineups
UPDATED Sunday GPP – Kaepernick/Boldin Stack
UPDATED Sunday GPP – Stafford/Megatron Stack
DraftKings Lineup Configurations
I generally really dislike playing Thursday players in DFS. However, every once in a while there are players that are too good to pass up. The first is probably the most obvious: Devonta Freeman. You all know how stellar he has been, so I won’t go over that in detail. I’ll just say this: he is underpriced by at least $1,000 for his recent production and New Orleans is ranked 30th against the run. Yikes. The one drawback is that his ownership will likely be over 50%, but hey…sometimes you just gotta roll with the popular guy. The other player in this contest I like – and also one that will be very heavily owned – is Willie Snead. DraftKings is toying with all of us. This is evident in his pricing: only $3,300. You’ll be forced to find differential elsewhere, and that’s OK. Not only has Snead seemingly taken over the #2 receiver role (arguably #1), Marques Colston is out on Thursday. A good contrarian play would actually be Brandin Cooks, so look his way as well.
Dalton continues to be underpriced. While Buffalo seems tough, they have been beatable in the air. At this price, I’m not shying away. In the Sunday GPP, I have Kaepernick listed. He’s a great alternate option and is only $5,000 in a matchup against the woeful Baltimore pass defense. Blount has killed the Colts in the past and I think he’s a solid play this week, even as the #2 in New England. The Patriots should get up big on the Colts and it should be Blount’s time to shine in the 2nd half. He’s averaging 4.9 YPC over the past couple of games and is a good bet to punch one or more TDs this week.
Maclin is a little iffy, but I think Smith will focus on him a lot this week. He was a couple dropped passes away from another mid-20s FP game against the Bears last week. Without Charles in the mix, he should get a lot of attention. Many people will be off of using him this week due to Charles’ absence and the extra pressure that will likely come Maclin’s way, but I think he’s worth the risk in a GPP. If you want to veer away from him, use the aforementioned Cooks and upgrade another position.
This lineup is all about targets. Targets, targets and more targets! I think we’re in for a pretty high scoring week, so I want guys that I know will be targeted heavily in the passing game. Hopkins is an absolute must in pretty much every type of contest this week. He is on pace for an insane 240 targets for the season. 240!!! Even with Foster back in the mix – he’s showcased in this lineup as well – Hopkins will continue to be a target monster, if for no other reason than his QBs are not good enough to make multiple reads before letting the ball go.
I love seeing Larry Donnell’s usage increase every week. After that game winning catch on Sunday night, Eli will be hard-pressed to not get him the ball in this and the coming weeks. With Fells out (with an absolutely tragic case of MRSA), Donnell has stepped up in a big way. He’ll be an especially important part of the Giants’ offense this week if either Randle or Beckham are unable to go. Allen Hurns may have to be subbed out here, but I’ll keep him in for now. His cash game status really depends on the injury news of Bortles. If Bortles looks like he’s pretty close to 100%, then Hurns is a solid play. Otherwise, it would be safer to look elsewhere.
Colin Kaepernick, baby! He’s obviously a risky choice any time he takes the field, but if ever there was a week to trot him out it’s in a game against the worst fantasy defense against QBs on DraftKings. Baltimore is HORRID in pass coverage. I’m all over this matchup and am stacking him with Boldin in many different lineups. In larger tournaments, I’d consider using Torrey Smith. He’s a very interesting play and could well end up having a big game like he did against the Steelers….it only takes one deep play for him to pay off his salary. He’s not to be used in cash games.
The only other big name here that I haven’t really covered and warrants a bit of discussion is Eddie Lacy. The matchup against the 29th-ranked San Diego run defense is too good to pass up. Green Bay should be able to take a lead early and – hopefully – this will lead to an increased work load for Lacy. We’ll see. Rodgers isn’t afraid to throw the ball from the 1 yard line, so Lacy isn’t a given. Still, I think the projected game flow makes this the game for him to break out.
UPDATED Sunday GPP – Kaepernick/Boldin
There are quite a few similarities here from the previous GPP I posted, so I won’t go over those players in detail again. Just know that I love the Kaepernick to Boldin combo once again. Other good QB/WR combos for tournaments include Bortles/Hurns (or Robinson) or Stafford/Megatron (this is the week that he should go off….finally. In fact, now that I write this I’ll throw together another lineup with him in it).
I strongly believe in Lamar Miller. If you’ve read my value play article this week, you’ll see why. It’s hard for his price to go much lower on DraftKings. I don’t love the matchup as much as I do the attitude change in Miami since Philbin was kicked out. I’ve moved to the Jets at DST. Washington is going to be without their starting center and left tackle….helloooooo multiple sacks against Cousins! The big question mark in this lineup is Odell Beckham. This lineup requires you to have a pretty strong stomach as Beckham is a question mark and doesn’t play until Monday. Fortunately, late swaps are allowed on DraftKings, so you could always move that one position over to Jordan Matthews or another player in that game. Still, this is a lineup only advised if you are playing multiple lineups as you’d be leaving a lot of $$$ on the table if OBJ is out.
UPDATED Sunday GPP – Stafford/Megatron
OK, I talked myself into it. Here is a Stafford/Megatron lineup. I’ve included some similar pieces (Foster and Hopkins will be on almost every one of my teams) and have included some other names like Eddie Lacy (I think he’ll break out this week) and Jamison Crowder (PPR monster in Washington, especially with DeSean still out). If you want to pivot off of Allen Hurns, look towards Eric Decker. At only $4,900, he could be a steal this week….and nobody is talking about him. At all.
Sample FantasyAces Lineups
FantasyAces Lineup Configurations
I don’t normally play guys who play on Thursday but I have a very strong feeling that New Orleans rolls in this game. Atlanta has been just scraping by in their 5 wins and this is the week they break. I won’t go too heavy but Drew Brees loves playing in primetime at home. I don’t think he’ll be highly owned. I’m going to stack him with Ben Watson to save some money while still getting that upside. Carson Palmer is my other QB with a great matchup against the Steelers defense. I’m going way out of my comfort zone with 4 RB but I think all 4 are a great value this week. All of them have good matchups this week and should see a high usage. The floor is pretty high with all four (except Hyde who can be really hit or miss). My WR consist of a target machine (Hopkins) and the new #1 for the Bears (Wilson). Both face defenses that have been getting lit up all year. My defense is the Eagles who always seem to get to the QB and force a good number of turnovers.
I wanted to try something a little different with my cash game this week and see what I can do with the top 2 QB’s on my roster (Rodgers and Brady). As it turns out I was able to put together a team I’m really comfortable rolling out in a cash game (and a GPP, to be honest) with a bunch of safe plays that see the ball a lot. Dion Lewis is a trusted target for Brady and Murray is starting to see the ball a lot more since he complained about his lack of usage. Both guys are a steal at under $5k. Marquess Wilson, Anquan Boldin, and DeAndre Hopkins are the top WR options on their respective teams and all have highly exploitable matchups. Andre Johnson had a monster game last week and if he can get 8 to 10 targets this week he’ll easily pay off his very low price. Julius had a quiet return to the Jags offense but all that’d done is keep his price low for a great matchup against the Houston Texans. As I usually do with my cash games I tried to not get too cute with my defense so I’m going with a strong Jets unit at home against the Redskins.
The Detroit Lions are back to be being terrible so I’m going to load up on a risky Chicago Bears offense for my GPP. I don’t think they’ll be too highly owned but the upside is surely there. Matt Forte is a yardage machine and Marquess Wilson is Cutler’s new #1 by default. Palmer and Fitzgerald head into Pittsburgh to face a weak Steelers passing defense. My only concern here is the whole West Coast team coming East thing but with Coach Arians coming back to Pittsburgh I can’t see his team not getting up for this one. Ideally this fear will keep ownership low on Arizona players. Arian Foster is my #1 RB play this week after seeing what Doug Martin did to the Jags Run D this past week. It’s a big plus that Foster is comfortable catching passes out of the backfield as well. DeMarco Murray is finally finding his way in the Philly offense and his price is outstanding. My 2nd FLEX player is Chris Ivory against at home against a Redskins defense that just got torn up Devonta Freeman. Delanie Walker is an inexpensive upside play versus the Miami Dolphins as is the Titans defense.
Updated Sunday GPP
Well, I paid up for QB in the cash lineup and, to some extent, in the first Sunday GPP lineup as well. We’re going to take a bit of a different approach here and go with two guys priced at $6,000 or below in Blake Bortles and Colin Kaepernick. Bortles, whose shoulder injury was blown way out of proportion early in the week, gets a choice matchup against a weak Houston defense, who will be without Clowney and – perhaps – without J.J. Watt. Without that pressure in his face, he’s going to have all the time in the world to find Hurns, Robinson and Portland State god Julius Thomas. Kaepernick gets a matchup against one of the worst passing defenses I’ve seen in some time, one that just gave up over 450 yards to Josh McCown. Yeah. Fire Kaepernick – and his teammate Anquan Boldin – up in a lot of your lineups.
I’m paying up for RB here. Both may seem a bit counter-intuitive, but bear with me here. I think Minnesota controls the game against KC, which will leave the 2nd half all to AP in what should be a control-the-clock master class. Le’Veon has a tough matchup against Arizona, but their numbers aren’t nearly as good as you’d expect. Additionally, Bell can do so much damage through the air, which is where I think we’ll see a lot of his value this week. Marquess Wilson is a solid play for Cutler and should have fairly low ownership. Eddie Royal and Alshon were both limited on Friday and may miss the game. Additionally, Martellus Bennett hurt himself and also may miss this game. This is looking to be a Wilson and Forte show on Sunday. Wilson is cheap and should easily hit value if given a good number of targets, which looks likely. Rodgers is a sneaky play once again (he has the 2nd most targets on the Packers) and Vereen should be used heavily against the Eagles, especially if Beckham is out. Hit me up on Twitter @Bankster17 if you have any questions.
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
Excel: Week 6 Matchup Stats
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|RB2||Duke Johnson Jr.||CLE||@DET||21.8||83.4||3.8||0.9||6.0||50.1||0.13||8.1||133.5||18.10||0.61||1.0||10||17.6|
|RB1||Todd Gurley II||LAR||HOU||22.0||73.4||3.3||0.1||3.8||28.1||0.25||5.0||101.5||12.40||0.46||0.4||6||4.5|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO||AVG|
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.
|Quarterbacks||Opp||DK||DD||FD||Fan Pts||Com%||PaYds||PaTD||Int||Off Yds||Tot TD||Sck||FO||PFF||AVG||FDP||DDP||DKP|
|Robert Griffin III||JAX||$7,300||$12,950||$7,800||20.4||63.2||285.5||1.6||1.0||297.9||1.9||2.5||26.0||26.0||22.4||19.6||18.9||20.0|