Week 5 DFS Value Picks October 8, 2016  |  Ian Goldsmith


 

Chalk Value Plays

 

DeAndre Washington vs San Diego

Though Jordan Howard will probably be the highest owned RB across all sites—and for good reason—, Washington won’t be far behind. The former Red Raider will get his chance in the spotlight this week in Oakland, with Latavius Murray having already been ruled out for the game against the Chargers. However, we still don’t know the extent to which the touches will be split between him and Jalen Richard. Richard only has 4 fewer carries than Washington and has one more receiving target, which makes me think that we are headed toward a 60/40 split at best. Just keep that in mind and, perhaps, temper your expectations a bit. Using Richard could actually be a sneaky GPP play this week against a woeful Chargers D.

DraftKings – $3,400; FanDuel – $4,700; FantasyDraft – $6,700; Yahoo! – $10

 

Jerick McKinnon vs Houston

Matt who? McKinnon has taken any troubles you may have had about Asiata’s role on the team and thrown them in the dust bin. In addition to increasing his carries to 18 last week, McKinnon also saw 5 targets in the passing game. With Stefon Diggs very questionable for Sunday, the Vikings are going to need to rely on Kyle Rudolph and McKinnon almost exclusively. Yeah, there will be a sprinkling of Charles Johnson, Cordarrelle Patterson, and the aforementioned Asiata, but it’s pretty clear that both Mike Zimmer and Sam Bradford will want to find their two best non-Diggs playmakers on Sunday. Don’t be afraid of the Houston D. In the past two weeks they’ve given up 105 yards and 2TDs to LeGarrette Blount and 95 yards and another 2 TDs to DeMarco Murray. You should roll McKinnon out in all formats.

DraftKings – $4,000; FanDuel – $6,200; FantasyDraft – $7,800

 

Brian Hoyer at Indianapolis

Apparently the Rodney Dangerfield of the fantasy world, Brian Hoyer’s pricing has gotten no respect on most of the sites out there. He’s not a tier 1 QB, but he is playing well and making few mistakes, easily hitting value in the past two games. Yet, here his price sits at just about minimum salary on most sites (Yahoo! excluded…they raised him to $27, not expensive, but high enough to remove him from a sure-thing value). He gets a choice matchup against  Colts team whose front office seems to be seeing how quickly they can destroy it.

DraftKings – $5,500; FanDuel – $6,000; FantasyDraft – $10,900

 

Zach Ertz @ Detroit

Though Ertz has been out for nearly a month, he comes back to the DFS world with the highest tight end ownership of the week. Why shouldn’t he be? He has a rookie QB at the helm that doesn’t know the meaning of the words turnover or fear, and he’s facing a Lions defense that has relearned the word cowardly, giving up 6 TDs through the first four weeks to opposing tight ends. His price will not be lower than it is now (except on Yahoo, whose pricing this week is much more in line with expectations across the board), so hop onto the bandwagon with everyone else.

DraftKings – $3,500; FanDuel – $5,600; FantasyDraft – $7,000

 

Other Value Plays

 

Kyle Rudolph vs Houston

Again, if there’s no Stefon Diggs, it’s Rudolph that Bradford will be relying on most heavily this week against the Texans. Hell, he might even rely on Rudolph even if Diggs plays. The big man out of Notre Dame has at least 7 targets in each of his first four games and has scored in each of the past three. While Houston has so far been stellar against the TE position, they have also not played a team that is as well rounded as this Vikings team. Again, he’s priced much too competitively on Yahoo for me to use him there (their pricing is, in my opinion, easily the most challenging of any of the four sites covered here), but I’m more than happy to use him on a site like DraftKings or FantasyDraft, where he is only costing about 7% of the overall salary cap.

DraftKings – $3,600; FanDuel – $5,500; FantasyDraft – $7,000

 

Eli Manning @ Green Bay

Eli’s got to have a big day at some point…right? He had three TDs in week 1…but only had about 200 yards. He had a combined 718 yards in weeks 2 and 3…but only had 1 TD and 2 INTs to show for it. Last week? Forget it. Minnesota’s DST is too damn good. Green Bay’s isn’t. Yes, things are looking up as his opponent this week is giving up 330 yards and 2TDs per game to opposing QBs. So, if he’s every going to put together a complete game, this is about as good an opportunity as he’s going to get. I’m not touching him on either FanDuel or Yahoo, but will gladly put his hat in the ring on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, where he sits at or below 12% of salary and gets a bonus for 300+ yards, which is a very real possibility in a game with the 2nd highest over/under of the week.

DraftKings – $6,000; FantasyDraft – $11,300

 

James White @ Cleveland

This has more to do with Brady than anything else. While White has underwhelmed so far, he’s not had much help in the way of QB play. Of course, he also hasn’t been needed a ton with Blount running through every defense as well. I’d expect Blount’s touches to diminish and White’s targets to increase. Of course, that change may not happen this week as the Pats will probably blow out the Browns and run Blount in the second half.

DraftKings – $3,900; FanDuel – $5,500; FantasyDraft – $7,700; Yahoo! – $11

 

Paxton Lynch vs Atlanta

This is, of course, only a viable option is Trevor Siemian is out. If he is, then Lynch is worth a shot facing an Atlanta team that is giving up, by far, the most fantasy points per games to opposing QBs. In four weeks, they have allowed signal callers to throw for more than 320 yards and 3TDs per game. That. Is. Awful. It’s a good thing the Falcons score 40 points per game, because their season would look a lot different otherwise. I wouldn’t use Lynch on FanDuel; his $6,800 salary there is inexplicably $800 more than Hoyer, who I’d much rather have.

DraftKings – $5,200; FantasyDraft – $10,2000; Yahoo! – $10

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina

Well, I don’t love the thought of using the Bucs. They are a consistently overmatched unit that is without a large number of starters on the defensive line. However….Derek Anderson. I will always stream a defense against a guy who has more career turnovers than touchdowns….especially one that has managed to do so over 12 NFL seasons. They are very risky play, but if they are a dud at least they wont kill your lineup at their rock bottom salary.

DraftKings – $2,400; FanDuel – $4,600; FantasyDraft – $4,000; Yahoo! – $10

 

Sammie Coates vs New York Jets

The second year player out of Auburn seemed to finally take over the #2 receiving role for the Steelers last week, hauling in 6 of 8 targets for 79 yards. He has at least 50 receiving yards in each game this season and is on pace, amazingly, for 1,128 yards. Big Ben loves having a deep threat, and Coates fits that role to perfection; he is averaging an incredibly 21.7 yards per reception, 4th best in the league. He is well worth a flier this week against a Jets team whose secondary is a shell of what it used to be.

DraftKings – $3,600; FanDuel – $5,300; FantasyDraft – $7,000; Yahoo! – $13

 

Good luck in Week 5, everybody!!!

 

OK, enough jibber-jabber. Below you’ll see four tables with my picks for the week. If you have any questions at all, hit me up in the comments or, preferably, on Twitter @ianrgold. I respond more quickly there.

 

Value Pick Tables

Picks are provided for DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyDraft and Yahoo!. There are two picks for each position, and one DST. Yes, I’ll even throw in kickers for FanDuel (well, ONE kicker). Why? Because I want to lose brain cells. The prices for each pick are loosely capped at 50% above the minimum value for that position. So, for instance,  I’ll try to limit prices for running backs on DraftKings to $4,500. For QB’s, I’m limiting picks a bit further to 40% (if I didn’t, then this week I’d have my pick of 19 QBs!). Of course, there may be some weeks that few usable players fall under these thresholds, in which case I’ll up the limit a bit. These are arbitrary numbers of course. Everyone has their own idea of what a value pick is.

In the tables below, you’ll see a few columns. The basics are Player, Team, Opponent, Type of Game (Cash, GPP, or both), and Salary. In addition to these, you’ll see the following columns:

% of Total $: This is simply the percentage of your salary cap that a particular player takes.

Cash Points: This is a loose estimate of how many points a player needs to hit a value multiple for cash games. This varies from site to site. On DraftKings, for instance, you will generally want your team to score at lease 3 FP per $1,000 in salary (on Yahoo!, it’s FP/$1, not per $1,000). We’d call this a 3X multiple.

GPP Points: This is a loose estimate of how many points a player needs to hit a multiple in GPP games. On DraftKings, for instance, I generally aim for a multiple of 4.

Of course, it is always better to aim for more than these multiples. You don’t always need 4X value in order to cash on DraftKings, but you usually need more than that if you want to win one of the huge tournaments. Yes, there are some weeks where you can win tournaments with under 200 FP, but those weeks are few and far between. If everything goes right, players can score 300 fantasy points – a multiple of 6! So, aim for more. The economist in me always screams “more is better” (Also, doesn’t The Economist in Me sound like a terrible title for a porno? “Hey baby, want to come back to my place and see my demand curve?”). Good luck this week!!!

 

DraftKings – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionTypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Eli ManningNYGGBQBGPP$6,000 12.00%18.0024.00
Brian HoyerCHIINDQBCASH/GPP$5,500 11.00%16.5022.00
Jerick McKinnonMINHOURBCASH/GPP$4,000 8.00%12.0016.00
DeAndre WashingtonOAKSDRBGPP$3,400 6.80%10.2013.60
Quincy EnunwaNYJPITWRGPP$4,600 9.20%13.8018.40
Sammie CoatesPITNYJWRCASH/GPP$3,600 7.20%10.8014.40
Zach ErtzPHIDETTECASH/GPP$3,500 7.00%10.5014.00
Cameron BrateTBCARTECASH/GPP$2,900 5.80%8.7011.60
BuccaneersTBCARDSTGPP$2,400 4.80%7.209.60

 

FanDuel – $60K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionTypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Brian HoyerCHIINDQBCASH/GPP$6,000 10.00%12.0015.00
N/AN/AN/AQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Jerick McKinnonMINHOURBCASH/GPP$6,200 10.33%12.4015.50
DeAndre WashingtonOAKSDRBGPP$4,700 7.83%9.4011.75
Steve SmithBALWASWRCASH/GPP$6,300 10.50%12.6015.75
Sammie CoatesPITNYJWRGPP$5,300 8.83%10.6013.25
Kyle RudolphMINHOUTEGPP$5,600 9.33%11.2014.00
Zach ErtzPHIDETTECASH/GPP$5,500 9.17%11.0013.75
Mason CrosbyGBNYGKCASH/GPP$4,500 7.50%9.0011.25
BuccaneersTBCARDSTGPP$4,000 6.67%8.0010.00

 

FantasyDraft – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOPPPositionTypePrice% of Total $Cash FPGPP FP
Eli ManningNYGGBQBGPP$11,300 11.30%16.9519.78
Brian HoyerCHIINDQBCASH/GPP$10,900 10.90%16.3519.08
Jerick McKinnonMINHOURBCASH/GPP$7,800 7.80%11.713.65
DeAndre WashingtonOAKSDRBGPP$6,700 6.70%10.0511.73
Sammie CoatesPITNYJWRCASH/GPP$7,000 7.00%10.512.25
Cameron Meredith*CHIINDWRCASH/GPP$6,000 6.00%910.5
Zach ErtzPHIDETTECASH/GPP$7,000 7.00%10.512.25
Cameron BrateTBCARTECASH/GPP$5,600 5.60%8.49.8
BuccaneersTBCARDSTGPP$4,600 4.60%6.98.05

 

Yahoo! – $200, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionTYPEPrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Pay up for QBN/AN/AQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Pay up for QBN/AN/AQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Bilal PowellNYJPITRBCASH/GPP$105.00%6.257.50
DeAndre WashingtonOAKSDRBCASH/GPP$105.00%6.257.50
Sammie CoatesPITNYJWRGPP$136.50%8.139.75
Dontrelle InmanSDOAKWRGPP$115.50%6.888.25
Cameron BrateTBCARTECASH/GPP$147.00%8.7510.50
Will TyeNYGGBTEGPP$126.00%7.509.00
BuccaneersTBCARDSTGPP$105.00%6.257.50

 

 


Week 4 Recap

Top 3 Picks of Week 4

  1. Hunter Henry – Filling in for Antonio Gates, the rookie TE nabbed 4 of 7 targets for 61 yards and a TD….as solid a day as one could have hoped.
  2. Jordan Howard – With Langford on the sidelines, Howard stepped up in a huge way, running for 111 yards and tacking on another 21 through the air.
  3. Brian Hoyer – Langford’s QB once again stepped up and had a solid day in Cutler’s absence. He is a solid value once again this week in a choice matchup.

Worst 3 Picks of Week 4

  1. Colts DST – Yikes. I took a stab with the Colts D in London, but the cheap team to have in that match was Jacksonville, who forced an INT and had 6 sacks.

That’s it on the bad picks, amazingly. The other three players that performed poorly all got hurt. Trevor Siemian was on track for a solid day with an early TD to Demaryius Thomas before injuring his shoulder. Dwayne Washington hurt his foot, and Kevin White also got injured…though he had already racked up a decent 6/55 line on the day. Overall, this was the week for value picks so far this season. I hope you benefited!

Week 4 Results

week4-results

 

FanDuel and DraftKings average multiples are both back into acceptable ranges after a slow start, and FantasyDraft and Yahoo! are, to use the parlance of #84, boomin’.

 

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