Week 5 DFS Cheat Sheet: FantasyDraft and Yahoo! (UPDATED)
October 8, 2016 | Ian Goldsmith
Welcome to Week 5 of the 2016 The Fake Football FantasyDraft and Yahoo! DFS Cheat Sheet!
. With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Doug Shain, Chet Gresham, and Justin Bales we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FantasyDraft and Yahoo!, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news. And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our a sheet from last season to see what you get.
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20-25 MPH winds with gusts of 35-40 MPH are expected in Sunday’s Redskins-Ravens game. This could hurt both passing games to an extent.
The Giants will try to get more targets to OBJ early in the game to get him going. This looks like a get well game for him.
Rob Gronkowski will play. With Brady back, he should at least be in Top-10 consideration.
Kenneth Dixon remains T West’s backup.
Julian Edelman will play and makes for a good start.
LeSean McCoy will play.
Ka’Deem Carey will play. He could sneak a few receptions from Howard, but Howard is the lead back and will get plenty of work.
Eddie Royal is still a game-time decision. Hope he plays for Hoyer, but I’d stay away from him and lean Meredith for a cheap play.
Antonio Gates will play, but could be limited. I’d stay away from this situation.
Cam Newton has been ruled out for Monday night. Derek Anderson will get the start and has DFS and streamer appeal in a good matchup. Anderson shouldn’t hurt Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen and could possibly help them, as Anderson targets the top two guys more than Newton usually.
Kenneth Dixon will play this week, but will likely be eased back in and could wear a leg brace for this game. That should once again give Terrance West the bulk of the work against a Washington defense that has been the worst in the league against running backs.
The New York Post Jets beat writer hears that Quincy Enunwa’s questionable tag is nothing to worry about and that he should be fine for Sunday’s game. This is good news because without Eric Decker and against a team that should be able to score on them, Enunwa will get plenty of work if healthy and be worth a DFS play.
Larry Donnell is out with a concussion, so Will Tye will get the full amount of snaps for the Giants and gets a good matchup with the Packers. He makes for a good FDS and redraft play.
Rashad Jennings is unlikely to play this week, giving Orleans Darkwa the start, but Bobby Rainey could see more work, especially if the Packers can get a lead, which is very much in the realm of possibility in Green Bay. Rainey had nine targets last week with Jennings out and should probably see something similar in Green Bay.
Antonio Gates looks like he will play this week against Oakland. This hurts Hunter Henry even though we aren’t sure how much Gates will play. This is a wait to see week for these two.
Paxton Lynch will most likely get the start over Trevor Siemian, who is close to being able to go, but the Broncos will probably err on the side of caution. Lynch has a stronger arm than Siemian and looked decent last week. I wouldn’t downgrade any of the Broncos fantasy players this week if Lynch starts.
Charles Sims hasn’t practiced this week and is listed as doubtful. Jacquizz Rodgers will get the start and has some appeal as a cheap starter. Bucs coach Dirk Koetter said he is “extremely” confident in Rodgers’ ability to handle the load.
Dwayne Washington is listed as doubtful to play this week against the Eagles. That will give Theo Riddick the start and bulk of the work. He should be used extensively in the passing game with Eric Ebron also out this week.
Marvin Jones got a full practice in on Friday and will play despite the questionable tag. The Eagles defense is stronger against the run than the pass, so there is room for Jones to have a nice game as the main target with Eric Ebron out.
Rob Gronkowski is listed as questionable after another week of limited practices. Tom Brady should help, but it’s tough to know where Gronk is right now. I won’t be using him in DFS, but if you need him in redraft, I’d probably risk it.
Julian Edelman “didn’t seem to be restricted in his movements” in Friday’s practice according to Patriots’ beat reporter Mike Reiss. He will see plenty of work on Sunday, especially in PPR formats.
Dez Bryant won’t play this week, so Brice Butler gets another start. He had a 5/41/1 line on nine targets against San Francisco with Bryant out last week and has some appeal this week.
Sample FantasyDraft Lineups
I want to be clear that my initial lineups from earlier in the week still hold for the most part, these are just a couple of additional lineups I created based on the ownership percentages released from Thursday’s slates. The two positions where I found the most change was needed was at QB. I was shocked when I saw that Tom Brady wasn’t the most highly owned QB. As a matter of fact, he was 4th. I’ll gladly take a shot on Brady at less than 20% ownership against the Browns. I was just as surprised to see Philip Rivers with one-third the ownership of Derek Carr. I know that game is going to be a shootout, and I know that in a vacuum Derek Carr is better, but I also know that OAK has the worst pass defense in the league and Rivers is very competent. I’ll gladly take a shot with him at under 10%. My RB rotation changed very little (Howard, Bell, Murray, Riddick). The one RB I considered using, but ended up not, was Ezekiel Elliott. He was very low-owned and I love the volume that he’s going to get this week. I’d use him over Bell if I was a little too chalky at other positions and then use the extra cap space to upgrade one of my Flex spots. My WR changed quite a bit with the revelation that Julio Jones and Travis Benjamin were so low-owned. I know that Julio has a tough matchup but it’s JULIO JONES! I’d love to use him as an upside play in one of my secondary lineups. Benjamin was the lowest owned Charger WR but he’s also the safest. He’s the one I want to stack with Rivers. Amari Cooper is a fine GPP play against SD; he’s going to break out at some point and I want him in my lineup when that happens. Sammie Coates is very cheap and he’s always a threat to put up a 3-120-2 type of line. The Jets are just the type of defense to allow that kind of game. Martellus Bennett is the pass catcher I want to use with Brady and I don’t really care that he was among the top five most owned TE. He’s going to have a big game this weekend. Jordan Reed at 6% owned seems silly and I don’t mind paying up for him with the value I can find elsewhere (Coates, Howard, Crowell, Smith Sr, etc). I still think this is the week Dak implodes so getting the Bengals as a cheap price is nice. Buffalo was the most widely owned D on the Thursday slate but their usage makes a lot of sense to me against an LA team that might be the worst 3-1 team ever.
FantasyDraft Lineup Configurations
Let this be your weekly reminder that we are not trying to have the high score in our cash games; we are merely trying to find the players that can get us into the top half of our game. We are not looking for players with the highest ceilings, but instead for the players with the highest floors; safe players. There’s nobody that should be a safer play this week than Angry Tom Brady. He’s a monster and should put up monster numbers. Even if Brady is 60% owned I still want him because he can make up for any lack of production elsewhere. I’m not going to stack Brady with anyone in a cash game because he spreads the ball too much, and I want to spread my variance.
At RB I’m going to go with the two safest plays that I can afford (sorry Le’Veon Bell, you’re just a bit too expensive) and that’s Jordan Howard and DeMarco Murray. I fully expect Howard to be the most widely owned RB in Week 5, but that’s just fine with me as he also has the best matchup. The thing I love best about Murry is his pass-catching ability as that will keep him from getting shutout even if he has a bad week running the football. He’s also got a nose for the end zone, and I like that little bump in my cash games.
At WR I want targets and matchups and that’s what I’ve got with my quartet. None of the four guys I’m going with has the highest ceiling, but their floors are very high. All should threaten for about 10 targets, and, if they can catch 60% of those, I’ll be in very good shape. Crabtree, in particular, is just in a zone right now and he’s got another incredible matchup against the Chargers this weekend. Kyle Rudolph is my go-to cash game TE until his price gets unreasonable. He’s getting targets aplenty and converting that into production. Sam Bradford has been a revelation for this team and he and Norv Turner combine to us their TE very effectively. I wasn’t targeting the Bills as my defense this weekend, but they were the best team I could afford and I do like that they are going up against an overrated Rams team. BUF probably won’t be the highest scoring D/ST of the week, but they can get to the QB and Keenum is definitely a threat to turn the ball over multiple times.
I decide to lump the analysis of my GPP lineups together this week (and probably going forward) because those lineups are quite similar and I’m not about to get too redundant. As a bonus, you get four lineups instead of two. What I’m basically trying to do this weekend is look for a QB/WR stack that I can use with a limited rotation of RB/WR/TE/DEF combinations. The four stacks I’m looking at are Wentz/Matthews (or Ertz), Dalton/Green, Rodgers/Nelson, and Stafford/Jones. I can see all four being underowned and I like the potential for multiple scores from all of them. In terms of GPP friendliness I’d probably rank them CIN, GB, DET, PHI. The Packers could move down to #4 if I get the feeling that they’ll be chalkier than I originally anticipated.
The RBs I’m looking to use with those guys are basically Le’Veon Bell, DeMarco Murray, Jordan Howard, and Isaiah Crowell. Based on cap space I had left over, I sprinkled a little Blount and Riddick in there as well. I can see Bell/Howard as the two biggest chalk plays this weekend, but sometimes the chalk play is the correct play. There’s no reason to avoid Howard with his incredible matchup and bargain price. Using him gives you a ton of flexibility elsewhere. I’m not sure how chalky DeMarco Murray will be but if he’s low-owned I may move him ahead of Bell in my GPP rankings. He’s been scoring like crazy and his touches remain high with his pass-catching ability. Isaiah Crowell has been way more productive than you realize and the Browns have been a plucky team that finds ways to stay in games. They may be out of this one at halftime but if they’re not, it won’t be because they’re throwing the ball all around the yard on the Pats. I’m willing to take the chance that CLE can execute a ball control game plan for long enough for Crowell to hit value.
At WR I’m surrounding my stacks with safer plays like Steve Smith Jr, Jarvis Landry, Demaryius Thomas, and Jordan Matthews. This gives me a little bit of a cushion if some of my riskier pays don’t hit in a way I’d like them to. Sometimes it’s OK to use a little cash game mentality in your GPP to mitigate risk. This is an overlooked strategy in making GPP lineups; not every player has to be boom or bust. At TE I’m using Ertz (insanely good matchup), Reed (the best TE in the game), and Henry (the best value at TE). I have no need to get cute at that position. The Bengals are a pretty solid defense and they’re very cheap. I don’t trust Dallas to continue its flawless offensive ways and CIN is the type of team that can really disrupt a rookie QB. I’m also using the Vikings (because they’re amazing) and the Bears (the Colts did not get a bye week after London) as my other defenses. Clearly I’m taking a huge chance with the Bears but that’s my most boom or bust lineup so there’s really no point in using a solid defense if they’re going to be my only safe play. While I like using a cash game mentality in a GPP, sometimes you just have to roll with a volatile lineup and go big or go home.
Sample Yahoo! Lineups
Sunday 50/50 (UPDATED)
Sunday GPP (UPDATED)
Yahoo! Lineup Configurations
I started this lineup with a stack of Derek Carr and Amari Cooper. The Raiders have the highest team total on the slate, and they come with elite upside. I added Melvin Gordon, who has been playing well, and is a huge part of the Chargers, who are projected to score quite a bit this week. Jordan Howard and Terrelle Pryor are still a bit too cheap for their upside and recent production. Cameron Brate and Steve Smith are two players that have seen a ton of targets recently, and also come with fairly cheap price tags. Brice Butler is the minimum price, and he will make an elite play if Dez Bryant is ruled out this week. Last, the Broncos defense fit into the lineup, and they have been outstanding this season.
This lineup began with Kirk Cousins and Jameson Crowder, as they both seem to be a bit too cheap for their production this season. Antonio Brown and Jarvis Landry are two of the more expensive options on the slate, and they are two of the safest options, as well. Kyle Rudolph has been a favorite target of Sam Bradford, and he is a touchdown threat every game. Terrelle Pryor, Jordan Howard, and Isaiah Crowell are all a bit cheap for their recent production, and they should have no problems hitting value this week. Last, the Redskins fit into the lineup, and they get a good matchup against the Ravens, who have struggled to score at times this season.
Once again, I used the Redskins defense, Brice Butler, and Kyle Rudolph as somewhat of salary relief options, but they all come with great upside, as well. Devonta Freeman is too cheap, as he has been heating up recently, and Tevin Coleman will likely be limited this week due to his sickle cell trait. I added a stack of Paxton Lynch and Emmanuel Sanders, as Lynch has elite upside because of his rushing ability and Sanders has been seeing a ton of targets recently. DeVante Parker is a cheap option that has touchdown upside, and gets a great matchup this week. Ezekiel Elliott continues to get better as the games progress, and he should be able to dominate once again this week, even though this is somewhat of a tough matchup. Odell Beckham Jr. fills out the lineup, and he gets a great matchup against the Packers, who were torched by Stefon Diggs and Marvin Jones in their last two games.
Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters. As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience. To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. There are instructions on the first sheet. If you have any questions whatsoever about how to use the optimizer, or if it’s not working for you, e-mail me at firstname.lastname@example.org. I’ll do my best to get back to you right away. If you don’t have Excel 2010 or later, then shoot me an e-mail with constraints you want, and I’ll run it for you. Also, if you have any ideas for things you’d want to see included in future iterations of this, then I’d also love to hear about them! Thanks, and have fun!!
QUICK NOTE: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include. For instance, I’m not keen on using the Titans DST this week, so I would remove them using the filters on the optimizer and then run it again. If you have any questions at all, shoot me an e-mail at email@example.com. Good luck this week!
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||FanDraf||Yahoo||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Defense Opp FanDraf Yahoo Off Points Sack Int Fum Rec DefTD RetTD FPPG
New England Patriots HOU $7,800 $20 16.9 2 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 8.4
Atlanta Falcons SEA $5,000 $16 21.6 2.6 0.8 0.4 0 0 6.2
Pittsburgh Steelers @KC $5,600 $13 22.2 2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 4.8
Dallas Cowboys GB $5,200 $12 27.0 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
Kansas City Chiefs PIT $6,700 $19 24.4 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0 3.9
Green Bay Packers @DAL $5,500 $13 26.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 0 0 3.2
Seattle Seahawks @ATL $5,900 $16 31.9 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 2.6
Houston Texans @NE $4,600 $10 27.2 1.5 0.1 0.6 0 0 2.5
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART
You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|