Week 5 DFS Cheat Sheet (UPDATE)
October 10, 2015 | Chet
Welcome to Week 5 of The Fake Football DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Chet Gresham, Ian Goldsmith and Doug Shain, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, and Fantasy Aces, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those three. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our Week 1 Cheat Sheet to see what you get.
Draftkings 100% Deposit Bonus
Sunday Morning Update:
Julio Jones had his hamstring tighten in practice this week, but tested it out this morning and is a go. I could see playing it safe and taking him out of DFS lineups, but all signs appear for him to be a full go.
Julius Thomas didn’t look like he would play, but is a go today. This helps Blake Bortles as a GPP play and probably hurts Allen Hurns a little as far as volume goes. I’d still feel good about Allen Robinson.
Marshawn Lynch is out, which clears things up for us early, but Fred Jackson will play despite a reported high ankle sprain. it’s hard to believe he could be that effective with a high-ankle sprain, so I’d still feel confident in Rawls getting the bulk of the work. The Bengals run defense is tough, but Rawls would be in line for a big chunk of touches.
Andre Ellington should return this week, but firmly behind starter Chris Johnson, who continues to play well. Bruce Arians believe all rookies are hot garbage, so Ellington will be ahead of David Johnson, but CJ?K is the only running back I’d start from that group for the time being.
Alshon Jeffery was limited in practice this week, until he missed Friday’s practice altogether. John Fox of course will give no details, but going from practicing to not practicing is usually the death knell for that week’s starting possibilities. Add to that Eddie Royal’s absence from practice all week and there’s a good chance neither suit up. That puts Martellus Bennett and Marquess Wilson as the top two receivers in a nice matchup. I’d feel fine starting Wilson in this one and of course Bennett.
Tevin Coleman will play against Washington, but don’t expect him to get too much work after Devonta Freeman went LaDainian Tomlinson on the Cowboys and Texans. This matchup for Freeman is probably his toughest as a starter, but the Cowboys and Texans weren’t supposed to be the cakewalks he turned them into.
Washington will once again be without DeSean Jackson and also Jordan Reed this week. That sets up Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder and Derek Carrier as the top receivers against Atlanta. Garcon is a must start due to volume and Crowder looks like a good PPR flier after catching seven of 12 targets last week. I’ll be throwing him and Marquess Wilson into some DFS games for their cheap prices. Derek Carrier on the other hand could be a worthwhile flier, but he’s untested in this offense and will be extreme boom or bust.
Davante Adams barely practiced this week and has been listed as questionable. I’d put him on the “out” side of the spectrum. That puts James Jones again in the spotlight, but also elevated Richard Rodgers, who had his most targets with Adams out last week, including a touchdown reception. With Ty Montgomery not able to do much as the No. 3 receiver, Rodgers should be a useful play this week.
Albert Wilson is listed as questionable after being limited in practice this week. This is the same thing that happened to him last week and he sat. Chris Conley may have passed him either way, but if he site, Conley makes for a decent play against the Bears anemic pass defense.
Steve Smith Sr. is listed as doubtful and coach John Harbaugh had already said he wouldn’t play earlier and Crocket Gillmore is listed as out, which puts this passing game in backup mode. But this is a great matchup for the passing game, so the backups should see some work. Kamar Aiken isn’t a backup, but he’ll move into the No. 1 receiver spot and makes for a great play this week. Marlon Brown will get the start and has some value as well. He’s a nice red zone target. In the end this most likely helps Justin Forsett the most, who will see more rushing and receiving attempts than normal.
Stevie Johnson wasn’t able to practice this week with his hamstring injury. With a nice matchup against the Steelers secondary, expect Keenan Allen to continue getting his many targets and with Antonio Gates returning he should step right back into a big role, especially around the end zone.
LeSean McCoy has a Grade 2 hamstring strain and could be out until after their Week 8 bye. That would have put Karlos Williams high in the running back rankings, but alas, he has not been able to practice with a concussion he suffered last week. That puts Boobie and Boom on the radar. Those players were named Anthony Dixon and Dan Herron by their parents, but now they are the Honey Boo Boo Brothers or something. They will most likely play the “hot hand” scenario with these two and I expect Herron to have a bit more juice than the larger Boobie.
Sample FanDuel Lineups
Cash 1: Getting Brady, Charles and Bell was my main goal in this line up. All 3 are tops in my projections and the running backs are tops by a large margin. Maclin is probably my favorite play at WR for his price, ARob is a bit riskier than other choices, but his price has dropped into safe territory in this matchup, Crowder is scary, but as long as Desean Jackson and Jordan Reed are out, he feels pretty safe to me. Charles Clay will be on almost all of my cash lineups. His price, recent production and matchup add up to $. Coons is a value play that I don’t see getting a zero and the Giants also bring some value, but with the best matchup of the week.
Cash: This is my in-between lineup that has some rock solid Cash plays like Julio Jones and LeVeon Bell, but also adds in a little riskier/upside plays like Kelce and Robinson. Boobie Dixon is the value play that allows all the studs and as long as he plays I don’t see him not hitting value at his price. Philip Rivers is a little riskier than Palmer/Brady, but I like his price and we’ve seen his upside recently.
UPDATE: I went away from Boobie Dixon in this one due to the fact Dan Herron is set to get some work as well and could possibly get going and take the majority of the work. That means I head back to the safe Bell/Charles/Brady play, but also get to add Marquess Wilson, who is very cheap and appears to be the Bears #1 receiver this week, with Jeffery and Royal most likely out.
GPP: Bradford in a great matchup is still risky, but the Saints weakness is the pass and Bradford has looked better of late. I’ve paired him with Jordan Matthews, who I feel very good about and will have in Cash games. Chris Thompson is of course the wildcard here. I see Washington getting into catchup mode and that is Thompson’s bread and butter so far. And pass catching running backs have been Atlanta’s Kryptonite. Odell Beckham Jr and Gronk are the two high priced names who I think live up to their price and the Jaguars could easily return an errant Winston Pass or two, for TDs.
I’m liking Forsett more and more as the week goes on. He should see a ton of touches in this game with Gillmore and Smith out. Rodgers is nearly unstoppable at home and I think he is always up for the challenge. James Jones, Randall Cobb and Richard Rodgers all make good plays, but Jones’ price is too good to pass on, especially pairing him with Rodgers. Charles Clay is still one of my favorite plays this week, but with Royal and Jeffery most likely out, Bennett should get a ton of work channeled his way. The Jaguars are a bit scary, but their run defense has been pretty good this year and if they can get Winston throwing, turnovers are bound to happen.
Alex Smith has been a steady producer this season, but no huge games. At home against the Bears is the time to do just that. He is strictly a GPP play as I stack him with JC, Maclin and Kelce.
4PM Cash: This lineup came together pretty well, so I wanted to add it. It’s a Patriots stack, which seems like the prudent move for the team with the highest projected Vegas score. If this were a GPP, I’d probably lean LeGarrette Blount, but Lewis is the safer play. Williams is the only really scary play, but the Cowboys will need to throw the ball more to have a chance of keeping up with the Pats.
Sample DraftKings Lineups
UPDATED Sunday GPP – Contrarian
DraftKings Lineup Configurations
I played Vick last week in the Thursday lineup and he didn’t do quite enough fantasy-wise. If Antonio Brown hadn’t dropped a tough, but catchable TD pass then I’d have a different story to be telling you. Frankly, I like how Vick looked, considering it was his first start with a new offense. Now that the rust has worn off and he’s had another week to prepare, I am going back to the well and using him again in GPPs this week, especially since the Steelers get a matchup with the banged-up Chargers who just allowed Josh McCown to throw for 356 yards and 2 TDs. Yowzas. Vick completed 73% of his passes in Week 4. While I don’t expect that number to stay elevated, I do expect a big bump from the 124 yards he threw for. Expect him to focus his targets once again on LeVeon Bell, whom I’ve paired him with here.
Dion Lewis is a must for me in cash games and tournaments until I see reason to move away from him. The price is still low and Brady has been finding him out of the backfield every week. I’d even consider pairing him and Blount in the same tournament lineup as I expect the Patriots to roll over the injury-plagued Cowboys. Justin Forsett finally got his game going against the Steelers last week and gets a choice matchup at home against the Browns. I’m using two players from the Thursday game: DeAndre Hopkins and Coby Fleener, the latter only if Dwayne Allen is out once again. Hopkins has been rock solid so far and is, frankly, the only real weapon in the passing game now that Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington got injured on Sunday. I’m guessing Foster will be much better in this game than he was against Atlanta, who, let’s be honest, were so dominant early on that he never even got a chance to get rolling. If Foster is playing as he should, then Hopkins could find more space in which to operate.
Alshon Jeffery is a bit of a wild card. If he comes back, then I love the matchup against a Chiefs’ defense that bleeds fantasy points to opposing WRs. Just make sure he is starting….and do NOT use him in cash games. Maclin is another player that I love. Alex Smith finally has a stud WR to throw to and is doing it well! Maclin has had two monster games in a row and has a chance at a third against a sub par Chicago defense. At DST, I love anybody playing the Niners. The Giants looked tough on the road in Buffalo, to boot. The price is right and the ceiling is high.
Well, you saw above that I love Maclin once again…I’m pairing him with his QB Alex Smith this week. The price is right and so is the matchup. Smith has returned value easily in 3 of 4 weeks this season. He now gets a matchup with a Chicago defense that is no more than middle of the road against the position.
This is actually a Chiefs-heavy lineup, with Jamaal Charles in there as well. Charles has not scored below 20 point all season and there is no reason to think that streak ends this week against the Bears. His pass catching ability makes up for any poor run matchups. Julian Edelman is a near must play for me in cash games on full PPR sites. Gronkowski is as safe a TE as there is as well, though I wouldn’t fault you for wanting to roll with Charles Clay (the FLEX in this lineup) and moving from Gronk to another receiving option.
You’ll see some familiar faces here, but the one big change is the QB/WR/RB trio. I love the home matchup for Flacco this week and am pairing him with Kamar Aiken, who costs a paltry $3,800. I’m also including teammate Justin Forsett, who I believe is underpriced for this matchup. He should be able to come close to replicating his line from last week against the Steelers – and hopefully tack on a TD. The Falcons’ DST rounds out the lineup. While Washington is playing better than expected, I still don’t trust Cousins. Atlanta should get up big early, forcing him to throw often, which leads to more turnover potential.
UPDATED Sunday GPP – Contrarian
This lineup is quite different than the others. This is a contrarian lineup that should only be used in very large, multiple-entry tournaments. By now, I’m sure you’ve all head about the big scandals surrounding DraftKings and FanDuel over the past couple of weeks. One of the biggest parts of that was that one of the employees was able to see the ownership percentages of players before lineups were set on Sunday. Well, that info isn’t as rare as the media is portraying – at all. You can get an idea of what Sunday ownership % will look like by either entering a Thursday contest yourself or head over to DFS Report, who provide a thorough look at ownership percentages from FanDuel’s Thursday night contests. Is it perfect? No, obviously not. But the percentages aren’t going to be that different, even across different sites.
Let’s use this to create a contrarian stack. If we exclude last week’s low-scoring, ugly affair against the Colts, the Jaguars are giving up 22 FP/game to QBs and nearly 40 FP/G to opposing WRs. I’m looking at Jameis Winston, who is only $5,100 on DraftKings, and Mike Evans, who sits at $6,100. Winston is owned in FD Thursday contests by only 1.8% of players. That’s nothing…If he can go off for the average the Jags are giving up, that’s already 4X value. Evans is only owned by 2.5% of players. Why? Well, it’s pretty simple, actually. Last week he was smothered by Carolina stud CB Josh Norman. Because of this, Winston focused on Vincent Jackson and Jackson went off. Well, the week before, Evans was targeted 17 times, but do the masses of people in the big tourneys remember this? Nope. Evans will get his and should have a nice bounce-back game this week. Let the other people focus on Jackson, who is in 6.7% of FanDuel lineups.
This lineup is very RB-heavy, which is a bit unusual in tournaments. Plenty of people will have either Bell or Charles, but very few will have both. Very few. The thing is, they could easily give you 65+ if they are both on their games. Barring injury, they won’t get you less than 40. They are safe, but I love their upside this week as well. Obviously, players such as Todd Gurley ($4,300) and Dion Lewis ($4,800) are worth a look and have higher multiple upside, so don’t forget to look their way in lineups either.
The highest-owned player in this lineup, other than Bell, is Maclin. He and Smith have found great chemistry over the past couple of weeks and I see that continuing again. Don’t shy away, especially at this price. It is, admittedly, a bit unusual to stack a RB and WR, but hey….that’s the type of contrarian thinking that can boost you to the top. All the value talk this week is about Kamar Aiken in Baltimore. While others roll him out (don’t get me wrong, I will be too; he’s in the other GPP lineup I posted), I’m rolling with his teammate Marlon Brown here, who will be owned by probably less than 1% of players. At $3,000, you get a starting WR with upside and a very capable QB in a great matchup. He’s worth the risk. Also worth the risk is Washington’s starting TE Derek Carrier, who costs the TE minimum $2,500. Cousins loves throwing to TEs. Carrier should have no problem going for at least 4/40, but I think he has much higher upside this week. If he adds a TD to those numbers, you are already looking at nearly 6X value. Nobody will be playing him, except you, if you decide to take the gamble.
Remember, this updated lineup is very against the grain and much riskier than other lineups I normally post. If you are submitting a lineup similar to this, I’d suggest it only be done if you are entering multiple lineups in a very large tournament. Good luck this week! Hit me up on Twitter @ianrgold if you have any questions.
Sample FantasyAces Lineups
UPDATED Sunday GPP
FantasyAces Lineup Configurations
On my Thursday slate I like to target players that I think will be highly owned on Sunday and benefit for a slightly low ownership when people grab Thursday players just to “have some action.” Those guys that I expect to be highly owned are Rivers, Brady, Forsett, Forte, and Maclin. All have good matchups and should be able to hit value for you. I don’t normally play people from the Thursday game but I love target machines and DeAndre Hopkins is just that. With the HOU WR corps hurting he’s going to get all the targets he can handle on Thursday night. I’m pairing him with the Texans defense with the expectation that they have a season-saving performance this week. At WR I’m passing on Keenan Allen for upside play Dontrelle Inman. With Stevie Johnson and Malcolm Floyd injured he should get some run as the #2 WR on SD. I’m a little concerned about Gates/Woodhead stealing targets but that’s what makes him an upside play instead of a sure thing. My other upside play is Leonard Hankerson against the Redskins. He’s clearly the #2 WR on the Falcons now and there’s some Narrative Street at play here facing his former team. Finally at TE I’m going to take the guy playing the Raiders. Always take the TE playing the Raiders until they prove they can stop them.
I say this every week but it’s worth repeating – keep it safe with your cash games. You don’t need to have the top score, you just need to be in the top 50% of scores so don’t take too many chances. With that said I’m going with 2 of my top 7 QB’s for the week in Rivers/Ryan. Both have excellent matchups against vulnerable pass defenses. While neither may put up the same stats as Brady they are still going to have good weeks at a reasonable cost. My RB are two low cost RB that should get the bulk of the carries for their teams (Cash game gold). Forsett takes on one of the worst run D’s in the Cleveland Browns and Dixon is inexpensive and could get a bunch of carries with McCoy/Williams. With my QB’s being a little pricey I loaded up on WR who get tons of targets but aren’t priced like WR1’s. Targets = catches = points. Maclin isn’t scoring much (only 1 TD on the year) but he’s getting a ton of catches. Allen is quickly becoming a WR1 (at WR2 prices), Kirk Cousins has finally figured out how to properly use Garcon, and Matthews is about the only WR that Bradford trusts. I expect all 4 to see double digit targets this week. Charles Clay continues to be Tyrod Taylor’s favorite target so he’s a great TE to get for a very reasonable cost. On defense I don’t want to mess around so I’m going to just take the best defense in football (the Broncos) and ride with them against the Raiders.
My GPP’s always start with a solid QB and 2 solid RB. I feel like I’ve got that locked down with Tom Brady, Le’Veon Bell, and Matt Forte. All should see a heavy workload and pay off nicely on their salaries. Having that solid base allowed me to take some chances at QB and WR. I like Mariota’s matchup at home against a surprisingly vulnerable Bills defense. I think this is the week that the coaching staff finally lets him run a little too. I’m going with a couple of value WR starting with Willie Snead. Drew Brees has been looking is way often and even a game of 5-60 would make him a worthwhile buy. My other upside WR is Leonard Hankerson. I know the DFS community is aware of his breakout season but I’m not sure enough of the general population is aware to raise his ownership level too much. Either way he’s a must play in GPP formats due to his low price. I wanted a fairly safe play for one FLEX play and that’s Dion Lewis. Brady loves him and his ability to catch the ball gives him a high floor. My 2nd FLEX is a very nicely priced Todd Gurley. I think he’s about a week away from being highly owned (and expensive) so I’m going to take him now while I can against a weaker-than-you-think GB rushing defense. My TE is going to be Gates. His ownership should be pretty low but I can see Rivers feeding him a lot in his return. On defense I’m going go with the least expensive team in the Jacksonville Jaguars. They’ve got talent on defense and are facing a very mistake prone Jameis Winston.
UPDATED Sunday GPP
As the week has gone on I’ve become more and more convinced that Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are going to have a monster week. They are going to cost a ton to get on your team but there is enough value out there this week (Dixon, Gates, Aiken) that they can still be a viable play. I think Dixon is going to be highly owned but he’s a must for your games as it’ll take next to nothing for him to pay off his value. Baltimore has nobody else to throw to other than Aiken and he’s actually becoming a reliable WR for Flacco. I’m still convinced that Rivers is going to have a huge game and I can’t see how he doesn’t involve his all-time favorite target heavily. With all the WR injuries on Chicago they are going to have to rely on Forte even more in the passing game. Against a weak KC secondary this is a very good thing. Matthews and Maclin are target machines and targets = money. Neither will cost you a ton and together they should out produce a combo of a stud WR and a lesser 2nd player. The ATL D at home is money and they get a great matchup against an unimpressive Redskins offense.
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
The Matchup Machine is working overtime and will be complete Thursday by noon.
Excel: Week 5 Matchup Stats
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
|Tm||Opp||QB Rk||PPG||MU||RB Rk||PPG||MU||WR Rk||PPG||MU||TE Rk||PPG||MU|
|ATL||SEA||32||9.3||Ð Ð Ð||25||26.4||Ð||31||47.6||Ð Ð||31||10.7||Ð Ð Ð|
|CHI||JAX||7||19||+||8||35.8||+||12||64.7||25||14.8||Ð Ð Ð|
|CLV||TEN||29||11.4||Ð Ð||32||22.5||Ð Ð Ð||27||55.2||Ð||21||19||Ð|
|IND||HST||28||11.7||Ð Ð||31||24||Ð Ð||29||52.1||Ð||30||10.7||Ð Ð Ð|
|NE||CIN||14||16.5||26||26.3||Ð||22||59.4||26||14.4||Ð Ð Ð|
|NYJ||ARZ||19||15.2||20||28.4||Ð||23||59.1||29||12.2||Ð Ð Ð|
|OAK||KC||25||13.4||Ð||7||38||+||11||65||27||13.5||Ð Ð Ð|
|SD||DEN||24||13.8||Ð||10||33.5||32||38.3||Ð Ð Ð||23||18.2||Ð|
|SF||BUF||30||10.5||Ð Ð Ð||13||32.4||13||63.3||28||13.1||Ð Ð Ð|
|WAS||PHI||31||10.5||Ð Ð Ð||15||30.8||28||53.7||Ð||32||5.6||Ð Ð Ð|
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
|Last 3||RZ |
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
|Last 3||RZ |
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.
|Quarterbacks||Opp||DK||DD||FD||Fan Pts||Com%||PaYds||PaTD||Int||Off Yds||Tot TD||Sck||FO||PFF||AVG||FDP||DDP||DKP|
|Robert Griffin III||JAX||$7,300||$12,950||$7,800||20.4||63.2||285.5||1.6||1.0||297.9||1.9||2.5||26.0||26.0||22.4||19.6||18.9||20.0|