Week 4 Starts and Sits
October 2, 2015 | Chet
Another week, another installment of fantasy football start and sit recommendations from yours truly! As in previous iterations, the Week 4 Starts and Sits aim to take advantage of good match-ups and potential for favorable game flow. This week’s video came together a little more hastily than usual, but I attempted to better describe the positive and negative player situations based on team DVOA rankings. I’ve also added my start and sit recommendations for each match-up to the game flowbotics spreadsheet. I hope these improvements are useful, but if the layout ever becomes too busy or cluttered for your weary fantasy-addled brains, please let me know so I can scale back the disarray of data. With that said, let’s get to the links, video, and picks:
- Tyrod Taylor vs. NYG: If we were still drafting, his ADP would still be rising. #TyrodUppercut
- Andy Dalton vs. KC: The Chiefs have been stout against the run. Dalton should continue to produce through the air.
- Derek Carr @ CHI: I was in on Carr in the preseason, but this is the first week I’d confidently use him in 1-QB leagues.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick @ MIA: This is a call for 2-QB leagues, but Fitzy should be startable across the pond.
- Blake Bortles @ IND: Could this seem like a horrible call halfway through the game like Alex Smith last week? Sure, but Smith made up a lot of ground in garbage time.
- Latavius Murray @ CHI: Bearish on the Bears, natch.
- Karlos Williams vs. NYG: Everyone is on this play already, but let me be the umpteenth analyst to recommend Williams.
- Joseph Randle @ NO: Weeden won’t win games for the ‘Boys by himself. They should lean on the run.
- Melvin Gordon vs. CLE: The Vegas spread predicts a decisive Chargers victory and the Browns struggle against the run, which projects a very positive Gordon game script.
- Giovani Bernard vs. KC: See Andy Dalton above.
- Ronnie Hillman vs. MIN: This is purely a dart-throw. Turf toe continues to hamper C.J. Anderson and the Vikings are vulnerable against the run.
- Donte Moncrief vs. JAC: Essentially an every-week starter. I like him more than Hilton for most league types.
- James Jones @ SF: He’s no Jordy Nelson, but Jones is in the right place at the right time for fantasy purposes.
- John Brown vs. STL: Noted last week to always start Brown, but want to emphasize it in spite of his match-up this week after he missed points drawing DPIs last week.
- Percy Harvin vs. NYG: Sammy Watkins isn’t 100%, so more targets for Percy.
- Michael Crabtree @ CHI: Easy to recommend anyone facing Chicago’s defense, but Crabtree is getting plenty of looks regardless of opponent. The hive mind presumed his fantasy demise too soon.
- Marvin Jones vs. KC: See Andy Dalton above.
- Jordan Reed vs. PHI: Run him out every week as long as he’s healthy. Targets aplenty.
- Eric Ebron @ SEA: Taking a risk here, but Ebron’s shown consistency. His size could make him match-up-proof.
- Coby Fleener vs. JAC: Assuming Dwayne Allen sits again.
- Kyle Rudolph @ DEN: Tough match-up, but more so for wideouts than tight ends.
- Sam Bradford @ WAS: Not a terrible match-up, really, but perhaps a terrible QB?
- Ryan Tannehill vs. NYJ: Travelling to London to face a fearsome defense. I still believe in Tanny, but I’ll be looking elsewhere for my QBs this week.
- Alex Smith @ CIN: By DVOA, Cinci boasts the 2nd-best passing defense in the NFL.
- Matthew Stafford @ SEA: Less appealing than Kirk Cousins and Brandon Weeden this week. Yikes.
- Teddy Bridgewater @ DEN: Injuries to his receivers aren’t helping what was already a horrible match-up.
- Lamar Miller vs. NYJ: See Ryan Tannehill above.
- Doug Martin vs. CAR: Hasn’t looked great so far and now he’s dinged up.
- Isaiah Crowell @ SD: He’s the bizarro Melvin Gordon. The match-up isn’t bad, but the game flow should be.
- Alfred Morris vs. PHI: Eagles are solid against rushers and Matt Jones isn’t going away.
- Todd Gurley @ ARI: This reeks of a timeshare.
- Andre Ellington vs. STL: The Rams are a tough opponent and he might not play much, if at all.
- Brandin Cooks vs. DAL: Performed just fine with Verizon McCown under center, but not so much that I’m excited to use him going forward.
- Golden Tate @ SEA: Revenge game? Nah.
- Terrance Williams @ NO: Similar to Cooks, QB concerns give me pause with Williams.
- Torrey Smith vs. GB: Always a threat to catch a deep ball, but the threat of a goose egg looms larger.
- Ty Montgomery @ SF: Volume not guaranteed, Aaron Rodgers might only throw to Randall Cobb and James Jones.
- Andre Johnson vs. JAC: Feels wrong to write him off after only 3 weeks, but AJ looks done.
- Jordan Cameron vs. NYJ: See Ryan Tannehill and Lamar Miller above, with the added whammy of injury concerns.
- Zach Ertz @ WAS: There’s a legitimate disconnect between his perceived value and actual value. Don’t buy based solely on a name.
- Vernon Davis vs. GB: A decent match-up, but his knee injury worries me.
- Gary Barnidge @ SD: He torched the Raiders, but most tight ends do. I’m not buying yet.
Thanks for reading/watching and good luck this week.