Week 4 DFS Cheat Sheet: UPDATED
September 27, 2014 | Chet
Welcome to Week 4 of The Fake Football DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Guru Rich Hribar, Ian Goldsmith and myself, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, Fantasy Elite and Draftday, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those four. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
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Sample FanDuel Lineups(by Rich Hribar)
FanDuel Lineup Configurations
I didn’t mention Stafford in the quarterback section, but I ended up with some extra cash to spend and he fits what I look for in a cash game quarterback. Detroit faces a team that will make them one dimensional in the Jets and he’s an arbitrage on Calvin Johnson who has a great matchup. I’m looking to exploit the low costs of running backs touches this week. I like Lamar Miller a lot this week at his price, but love what adding Robinson to your lineup allows you to do at the receiver spot. If you want to use Miller and go for a cheaper WR3, I don’t think he’ll disappoint. Jimmy Graham and San Diego defense are must plays across the board this week, so plug them into your lineups.
Tournament Lineup/ Thursday Night
Not too far off from the cash lineup except I’m going all in on a full New Orleans stack. Thursday night projects to have moderate scoring (45 points) and has a enough brand names that we should see a lot of the players involved in the game in lineups. It’s a great week to get in with your Sunday lineups and take advantage of those who are chasing early points.
Sunday Early Only Tournament
Thankfully we actually had a relatively lax week in terms of inactives compared to the previous two weeks, so there aren’t a lot of chairs that we’re forced to move around this Sunday. I’m excited for the early only slate because the New Orleans offense is going to have a solid amount of ownership tonight across all formats. With so much overlap, tournaments or head to heads games are the way to go with such a shallow roster pool. I’m going to use a Big Ben/Antonio Brown stack in those games. If you want to use Markus Wheaton, you can also get in Megatron if you’re feeling good about his health, but Brown is my favorite receiver going early with news on Calvin’s availability being vague at best. Tight end is a mess early on with no Jimmy Graham or Antonio Gates, so the best fit for me is Delanie Walker due to salary and the fact that he’s been the best offensive player so far for Tennessee. Charlie Whitehurst is a conservative quarterback and Indianapolis has been susceptible to tight ends thus far. Since there’s np Graham to pay up for, I’m using that chunk of cash to roster Matt Forte, who scored 66 fantasy points combined in his two games versus Green Bay in 2013. The rest of the lineup is filled with the usual suspects form the cheat sheet that I’m anticipating to be highly viable this afternoon.
Sample DraftDay Lineups (by Chet Gresham)
DraftDay Lineup Configurations
Cash Lineups: Lacy, Bell and Brown all feel safe. Brown should see a lot of work against the Jaguars poor run defense, Lacy and the Packers will want to get their running game going after being shut down and they’ll have a good opportunity to do so against Chicago and Bell is nearly matchup proof right now as you saw him work his magic against the Panthers on the road. Kaepernick will have Vernon Davis back and Crabtree at full strength. He’ll be at home against an Eagles team that is giving up 288 passing yards per game and should be able to score on the 49ers and keep Kaepernick throwing. Stafford faces a Jets team giving up over 2 touchdown passes per game and will stuff the run. Rivers faces the Jags who have been getting torched by opposing QBs. In his last home game he put up 25 DraftDay points on the Seahawks. Greg Jennings was targeted seven times after Bridgewater came in and with Rudolph gone I think that continues. Hopkins is a bit of a boom or bust play that I would put in a tourney, but the Bills rank 30th against #2 WRs according to Football Outsiders and Hopkins had nine targets last week. Crabtree and Tate have become solid plays and Tate looks good for a TD this week against the Jets to end his slump this season. Garrett Graham is healed up and played on 80% of the snaps last week. He saw six targets and caught five of them. I like him for a safe punt play. Travis Kelce is another player on the edge of tourney and cash game now that his snap count is up into respectable numbers. DeAngelo Williams should be back this week and won’t have Tolbert or Stewart or a healthy Cam Newton to take away touches. I wish he had an easier matchup, but his workload and price offset it. Wheaton is a cheap upside play against a Bucs defense that is giving up an 80% completion percentage and 181 yards per game to wide receivers. Bradshaw’s price has shot up, but it was so unbelievably low that it’s still at value. He continues to outplay Richardson and get red zone looks. And the Chargers defense looks head and shoulders above the rest this week.
Tourney Lineup (Thursday): This lineup isn’t too far from the others, but Eli Manning does make it risky. His matchup, price and the way he’s been playing of late are enough for me to throw him in a tourney which also allows me to play Drew Brees. Miller’s price is a little higher than I wanted for cash games, but I do like his upside against the Raiders as the every down back. Cruz is matched up with Eli and I’m looking for those two to do some work in a game I think will be high scoring. The rest have been tossed around in my cash lineups.
This week the pricing at DraftDay is pretty good. There aren’t any must haves due to their insanely low price and you have to take a few risks to put together a team. That’s the way I like it, but it does make putting a team together a little more frustrating than usual.
Cash Lineup 3
I wanted to make sure I was able to get Gates in a lineup now that Ladarius Green is looking suspect to play. The Jags have been horrid against TEs so far this season, giving up 8.3 receptions, 97.7 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game. Jordan Matthews is the only new name in this lineup. I don’t see him catching two touchdowns again, but his nine targets and eight receptions last week are a good sign for a game which should have Foles throwing again.
Tourney Lineup 2 and 3
Bridgewater doesn’t need to do much to have value at his price and I think the Atlanta defense is just right for him to be able to accumulate some DraftDay points, especially if the Falcons get out big and go into prevent. Tony Romo’s price has fallen and for good reason, but this week he’ll most likely need to do more to keep up with Brees and company. Doug Martin’s price has also dropped and with Pittsburgh’s run defense 120 rushing yards and 5.5 yards per carry to opposing running backs, I like Martin’s odds of putting up good numbers. Alshon Jeffery should be the main man again this week as he looks healthy while Marshall does not. I was a little quick on the draw for Gronkowski this season after seeing him score a TD week 1, but this looks like the week he sees more playing time and last week he came very close to catching 2 TDs. KC has given up a touchdown per game and an 80% completion rate to tight ends. Keenan Allen will look to get on track against the Jaguars this week. I think they’ll give him a little extra focus to do just that. I was hoping Jamaal Charles’ price would have fallen further, but I think he makes for a great tourney play. He’s practiced all week, is on Monday Night Football and faces a Patriots team that has been poor against the run for a while now. He’s risky, but I could see him winning a tournament for you. To fit JC in there I had to punt with Davante Adams. He’s scary, but has been splitting reps with Jarrett Boykin, who is questionable for this game. With no target magnet at tight end, I think Rodgers finds Adams enough to be worth his rock bottom price.
Sample Draftkings Lineups (by Ian Goldsmith)
Draftkings Lineup Configurations
This week’s prices, in my opinion, showcase lineup creation in a different light. A lot of the safer plays have fantastic matchups, so instead of taking big risks, my lineups – including tournaments – are focused on reliability.
There are very few weeks where I advocate using one or more players across the board. I have to rethink that idea this weekend, however. On almost every lineup I make, Eddie Lacy and Donald Brown make an appearance. They make my lists for different reasons. Eddie’s price has simply dropped to a level that I thought I wouldn’t see this season. Yes, he has started out slowly, but he has also faced the 1st, 2nd and 5th defenses against the run! YOU try running on the Jets, Lions and Seahawks and tell me how that goes! This is his breakout week. In two games against the Bears last season, he gashed their defense for 216 yards and 2 TDs. He is on almost every single team of mine. Brown’s presence on my teams is two-fold. One, he is on a prolific offense and is facing the Jaguars this week, who are last in the league against the run; there will be holes to exploit. Two, San Diego is using him as a workhorse. He ran the ball 31 times against Buffalo. Oh, yeah…he also had 5 receptions. Woodhead is gone for the season and Mathews is hurt, leaving Brown with all of the touches. He and Lacy should easily provide you with value and have a combined upside of 50+ fantasy points this week. I project them to combine for a minimum of 35. For only $11K combined, your lineup is starting with a solid floor.
There are a few other people that I want on most of my teams. Julian Edelman will continue to be on most of my lineups. I won’t lose faith in him until Brady does. Jeremy Maclin and Steve Smith are two target monsters. Smith gets the added bonus of going against his former team this week. He could explode. My two favorite DST plays this week are the Chargers ($3100) and Steelers ($2900), who both play at home against mediocre offenses. If Jake Locker doesn’t start for Tennessee, then the Colts become an intriguing tournament play at home.
While you could consider paying up for QB this week, I think the best values of the week are found in Colin Kaepernick, Philip Rivers and Tony Romo. The first two have outstanding matchups, going against the Eagles and Jaguars, respectively. Romo presents my favorite value of the week. He is under people’s radars, but has a price of only $6700 and should be involved in a shootout with the Saints. Want cheaper? Teddy Bridgewater at home in his first start against Atlanta. Atlanta’s defense is not nearly as good as what it showcased against Tampa Bay. Bridgewater has the bonus of being mobile. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get 30+yards on the ground, which should solidify his numbers. At only $5700, he’s worth a shot on a tournament lineup.
Top Three Thursday Targets
- Pierre Garcon: $7100
- Alfred Morris: $5500
- Victor Cruz: $6800
Top Two Breakout Candidates
- Eddie Lacy: $5600 – See above for why
- Keenan Allen: $5300 – The Jaguars cure all. Could be in line for a huge week.
Top DK Play of the Week
Matt Forte: $7800 – Forte destroys the Packers. Look at what he did to them last year:
46 attempts for 235 yards and 3 TDs / 9 receptions for 101 yards and 1 TD / 72.6 DK Fantasy Points or 36.3 FP-Game / He has at least 5 receptions in each of his first three games this year. Start him with confidence!!!
This week is the week of the mid-priced running back. The more I look at the matchups and prices, the more and more I am inclined to start a running back in the Flex position. Donald Brown and Eddie Lacy make an appearance once again in my 50/50 lineup. New to the mix is Lamar Miller. Without Moreno in the mix, Miller has upped his game and has become a reliable piece of the Miami offense. Going against an overmatched Raiders team that gives up over 22 FP and nearly 150 rushing yards per game, Miller should have himself a game. Tannehill would be wise to use Miller in the passing game as well and I think he will.
There are a number of wideouts in the $6K to $6.5K price range that should be heavily involved this week. Edelman and Maclin are clear inclusions here as is Crabtree, who has become the clear #1 in San Francisco. If Vernon Davis is limited, then Crabtree becomes an even better play.
A couple of options have become clearer in tournaments to me. On the really cheap end, Jeremy Kerley offers tremendous upside at only $3500. Eric Decker will be limited, which should mean that Kerley is on the field for a majority of snaps. He caught 7 balls for 81 yards and a TD against Chicago last week. He also provides limited downside as Geno has looked his way regularly in the first three weeks. Allen Robinson will likely be on a number of teams this week as he quickly became Bortles’ favorite receiver last week. He will have a tough go in the first half, but should have a great chance for garbage time points after the Chargers get up big quickly.
I love the trio of Aaron Rodgers and his buddies Nelson and Cobb this week. After the beat down by the Lions, the Packer trio’s prices dropped dramatically. Chicago does not have the personnel to match up with them. Geno Smith threw for over 300 yards last week. Rodgers will eat them alive. If Jarrett Boykin can’t go, then Davante Adams becomes a really intriguing tournament play at minimum salary.
DeAngelo Williams isn’t sexy and doesn’t have a great matchup, but he will be getting heavy carries this week as Carolina is out of other options. Jonathan Stewart has an outside chance of playing, but that likely won’t happen. At only $3900, Williams opens up the opportunity to roster Jimmy Graham, who has a chance to have the highest score of the week in a high flying matchup against Dallas. I love the Lions this week against turnover-prone Geno Smith. They should be good for a high floor.
Fantasy Elite Drafting Ranks
NFL AM: Running backs are fairly scarce so I really want Lacy in this one and would pay up for Forte as well. QBs aren’t quite as high priced as they have been, so Stafford isn’t too much and if you get into a bind Mike Glennon makes for a cost effective play while Charlie Whitehurst is as cheap as possible. I’d rather not go that route, but if your salary cap gets in a bind they are cheap enough to give you value and can help you get the studs like Antonio Brown, Alshon Jeffery and Le’Veon Bell. Eric Ebron should get a boost in playing time with Fauria out and makes a good punt play and Adams would get a boost if Boykin is out.
NFL Prime: I don’t love the RBs in this group much either, so Khiry is a must for me, especially at his price. I love Donald Brown this week, but his price is really high, so would have to fit. The studs in this group are studs, with Jones, Murray and Graham all being great plays, but Maclin, Bryant and Crabtree right up there as well. The problem is going to be price. If Ladarius Green can’t go I think you have to move Gates up this list, maybe even to the top right after Khiry. The rookie QBs have some upside, but aren’t bottom of the barrell pricing, so I’d love to get Foles/Kaep if possible. Hyde is a punt play I like to score a touchdown and let you get some of the studs.
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
Football Outsiders’ Individual Position Pass Defense Rankings
If the Matchup Machine isn’t sortable for you, here are the same stats in Excel that are sortable: Matchup Machine Week 4
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
|DEP||Running Backs||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Att||Yds||YPC||RuTD||Rec||Target||Yds||RecTD||Tot Yds||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
|DEP||Tight Ends||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
|Defense||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Sack||Int||Fum Rec||Pts Allow||FP/%DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
|New England Patriots||IND||$3,200||$8,650||$4,900||7||1.8||1||0.9||27.9||2.188||0.809||1.429|
|Green Bay Packers||@SEA||$2,900||$8,400||$4,700||5.3||2.6||0.4||0.4||23.8||1.828||0.631||1.128|
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.