Week 4 DFS Cheat Sheet: FantasyDraft and Yahoo! (UPDATED)
October 1, 2016 | Ian Goldsmith
Welcome to Week 4 of the 2016 The Fake Football FantasyDraft and Yahoo! DFS Cheat Sheet!
. With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Doug Shain, Chet Gresham, and Justin Bales we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FantasyDraft and Yahoo!, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news. And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our a sheet from last season to see what you get.
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Willie Snead will play. This is great news for Drew Brees’ upside this week, but does knock Michael Thomas down a bit. Get Snead in your lineups where needed, but I would lean toward GPPs in DFS.
Julius Thomas will not play today. Marcedes Lewis gets the start. He’s a GPP play at best.
Terrance West will get the start over Justin Forsett today. He makes for a decent DFS play in a good matchup against the Raiders.
Marvin Jones was limited in practice on Thursday, but was able to put a full practice in on Friday and should be good to go. Get him in your lineup against the Bears weak defense.
Eric Decker will miss this week’s game against the Seahawks and the number of games he misses after that is still up in the air. Seattle will be a tough opponent for Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa, but I expect Marshall to see Richard Sherman, while Enunwa moves around enough to get matched up on linebackers and safeties. He has some GPP appeal.
Jamaal Charles will play Sunday night against the Steelers, but all signs point to him being eased back slowly with a bye week on the horizon. I’d avoid him as much as you can and continue to play Spencer Ware this week. He’s not quite as safe as we’d like, but with Charcandrick West out , I expect Charles to play Wests role at most this week.
Rob Gronkowski is listed as questionable, but all signs point to him playing. The only concern would once again be his snap count, but he should be trending upward in that area and as long as the game is somewhat close and Jimmy Garoppolo is playing, Gronk should Gronk.
Russell Wilson isn’t on the Week 4 injury report. He practiced in full despite spraining his MCL last week and already playing on a sprained ankle. He gets a tough matchup with the Jets strong defensive line going against the Seahawks weak offensive line. He should be startable in redraft, but Doug Baldwin and maybe Christine Michael are the only two players I have much faith in this week.
Jimmy Garoppolo is the favorite to start this week for the Patriots, but they still need to wait to make sure he feels good in warm-ups Sunday. His presence would help Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski, while Jacoby Brissett limits their upside.
Willie Snead is listed as questionable after getting limited practices in this week. His status is still uncertain, but he was able to practice more than he did last week. Hopefully we will know his status sooner than later, but he does play in a late game, so keep your options open.
Dez Bryant won’t play this week, but the team wants the 49ers to think that maybe he will. He’s not. Brice Butler will take his spot, but Jason Witten and Cole Beasley should see the biggest bump in production.
Rashad Jennings is a game-day decision for Monday night’s bout with the Vikings. He’s closer to doubtful than not, but it still makes it tough to roster Orleans Darkwa this week. Either way, the matchup is not good.
Delanie Walker says he has a “opportunity to play” this week. The matchup against the Texans is one to stay away from in DFS, but if Walker does play, he can still be used in redraft.
Terrance West is in line to see more work this week after coach Harbaugh made it clear there needed to be a change West has been better than Forsett this season, but not by a lot. The Raiders have allowed five-yards per carry this season and West does have some upside if he gets the bulk of the work. Of course we don’t know that for sure, which makes him a risky play.
Jeremy Langford will be out around a month, which gives Jordan Howard the lead back job, especially with Ka’Deem Carey also out. The Lions are giving up 5.3 yards per carry to opposing running backs and Howard makes for a good play this week.
Sammy Watkins has been put on I.R. and will be out at least eight weeks. Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin will take over as the one and two wide receivers while Charles Clay will see a bump in work as well.
Michael Floyd isn’t on the Week 4 injury report. He will start, but does get a tough matchup with the Rams. I’d stay away in DFS, but he is worth starting in a pinch in redraft.
Tavon Austin is questionable, but he did get a full practice in on Friday and should be a go. The Cardinals are tough on slot receivers though, so I would lower expectations.
Kenny Britt is questionable after being added to the injury report on Friday. There aren’t many details on his injury, but if you need him, be sure to check for updates.
Sample FantasyDraft Lineups
Sunday GPP 2
FantasyDraft Lineup Configurations
Let this serve as my weekly reminder that in a cash game (50/50, not head-to-head) we are not looking to obtain the highest score in the field. Instead we are trying to finish in the top half of the field. This means that we are going to take far less risks and play it much safer with our lineups. In that respect, there has been no safer QB for the better part of a year than Matthew Stafford. He’s been putting up elite QB numbers since Jim Bob Cooter took over as OC for the Lions, and there’s no indication that he’s going to slow down against the Bears. I don’t normally love stacking in a cash game, but Marvin Jones has been so consistent that it’s hard to pass on using him. Stafford loves Jones and his volume is very appealing. Speaking of appealing volume, I’m going all in on high volume RB for my cash games this weekend. DJ, Elliott, and Miller are all workhorses and will get well over 20 touches every single week. None of them have particularly bad matchups, though I’d play David Johnson against the ’85 Bears right now with the way he’s playing. What I like best about all 3 guys is that none of them are touchdown dependent to get points. That’s exactly where the volume argument comes into play. Get me the touches, I’ll worry about the touchdowns later.
Along with Jones, I’m going to use Travis Benjamin and Jamison Crowder at WR. Benjamin has been averaging 5-90-1 since Keenan Allen has gone down and that’s plenty good production at his price. He’s a WR1 for his team, but he’s not priced at all like it. I love value. Crowder is a bit of a risk, but I’m banking on his red zone production to increase. He’s 3rd in the NFL with 7 red zone targets, but has only turned one of them into a touchdown. As a matter of fact, he’s got the 2nd worst red zone catch percentage among all WR with 7 red zone targets. That has to turn around at some point; I just like that Cousins trusts him in deep. Terrelle Pryor would be a good pivot if you don’t trust Crowder, but I think that Pryor is a much riskier bet. I wanted to use Kyle Rudolph at TE because of his large target share, but he’s priced a little higher than I could afford. I went out and got the next best thing in Zach Miller. Miller has a similar target share to Rudolph and has an even better matchup against a Lions team that has given up a TD to the TE position every week this year. The Vikings have the best defense in football and I don’t mess around at defense in a cash game. One glaring omission from this lineup is a very cheap LeGarrette Blount, but I just don’t know where I’d fit him onto this team. He is an excellent cash play if you want to pay up for Antonio Brown or Cam Newton.
I really feel like Cam Newton’s ownership is way too low every week. He’s got the most upside of any QB in football, but people are afraid to spend up for him. On a week like this where I can find value everywhere I had no problem being able to afford Cam. ATL is not an imposing defense and they’re working on a short week. Some of the value I’ve been able to find this week includes Carlos Hyde, LeGarrette Blount, Steve Smith, and Zach Miller. Hyde and Blount are getting a ton of carries and both have continued to find paydirt. I’m shocked at how little both of these guys cost considering neither one is facing a very tough defense. Steve Smith emerged as the new #1 for Flacco last week after Mike Wallace dropped a TD. It doesn’t take much for a QB to lose faith in a new player and go back to old reliable. A matchup against OAK is very solid and Smith has a large amount of upside for a very low price. Zach Miller gets a large share of the targets for CHI and faces a Lions D that has given up a TD to the TE position every week this season. Along with Cam Newton, those savings allowed me to pay up for the #1 WR and #1 RB as well. I’m all over PIT this weekend as they are in a great spot to bounce back against a KC team that is primed for a letdown after their huge game against the Jets. Also, it’s Antonio Brown so it’s not like you need a really good reason to use him. The same thing can be said for David Johnson. He gets you points in so many ways that he’s pretty much matchup proof. I love his floor in a cash game but I his ceiling is just as enticing for a GPP. I don’t really care what his ownership is; he’s a staple of my lineups if I can afford him. Marvin Jones is quickly becoming a top 10 WR and he’s got another great matchup this weekend.
Sunday GPP 2
My favorite stack this weekend is Big Ben and Antonio Brown. I think people are down on them after their flop in Week 3. That hate is going to be furthered by their matchup against a KC team that just picked off 6 passes from the Jets. Neither of those things are going to happen this weekend. This is a perfect bounce back/let down combo. Let’s also not forget that Le’Veon Bell is coming back for the Steelers and that will help take a lot of pressure off the passing game. I just love using this stack this weekend. You can read above for my thoughts on Elliott, Blount, Smith, DJ, and Vikings. For the RB it comes down to volume and, for Smith, it’s all about cheap upside. As for the Vikings, they’re just really good. Coby Fleener broke out a little bit without Willie Snead in the lineup for the Saints. If Snead is out against this weekend, looks for Fleener to come through again for you. SD struggled with the TE last week in Indy and Brees should be able to do the same thing with Fleener in Week 4. Terrelle Pryor may end up being very highly owned (people love to roster fun players), but he’s so versatile and so cheap that he’s worth using despite the ownership to free up some cap space for the likes of Zeke, AB, Big Ben, and DJ.
Sample Yahoo! Lineups
Sunday 50/50 (UPDATED)
Sunday GPP (UPDATED)
Yahoo! Lineup Configurations
Finally, I used a player from the Thursday game in my Thursday lineup. That player is DeVante Parker, who has shown flashes this season and will be an elite receiving option for his price tag if he is able to put it all together. I used a stack of Bortles and Hurns, as they have both been somewhat productive this season, but we get them at a discount because neither has hit their full potential in a game yet. That game is also set at the second highest over/under on the slate, which never hurts. Some people may get off Gordon because he didn’t dominate as many people were expecting last week, but that would be a mistake. He gets a great matchup against the Saints, who were just dominated, and Gordon would have had a significantly better week if Phillip Rivers had not missed him on a wide open pass for a touchdown. Michael, Pryor, and Jones will all likely be owned at an extremely high percent because of their huge games last week, but they are all still a bit too cheap. Miller is also too cheap, as Hoyer loves targeting the tight end, and he’s priced as if Cutler were drawing the start. Last, the Texans defense fit into the lineup, and they are a defense that comes with tremendous upside.
I started this lineup with a stack of Rivers and Gordon, as the Chargers are set to score a ton of points this week, and it’s clear that Gordon is going to be involved in the passing game. Howard was a cheap running back that should see plenty of carries with Langford out for the next few weeks. He was used as a salary relief option, but he is a fairly safe player with great upside. Pryor, Jones, and Miller are three players that will likely be highly owned, and for good reason. They are all coming off big games, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them exceed value once again this week. Snead is labeled out, but he’s expected to play at this time. His price tag resembles his injury status rather than his production, and it would be wise to use him while he’s cheap. Beasley is a player that tends to go overlooked because he isn’t flashy, but Prescott loves to target him, which gives him a high floor, especially since he catches the majority of his passes near the line of scrimmage. Last, I used the Texans defense once again, as they come with tremendous upside and are fairly safe in what should be a low scoring game, even without JJ Watt.
This team is the epitome of high risk, high reward. The Steelers looked awful against the Eagles last week, and the Chiefs had a defensive performance for the ages. That means most people will likely avoid the Steelers defense, but Vegas doesn’t think that is a good decision. The Steelers are a -4 favorite in a game set at 48.5 points. The offense will run through Roethlisberger, Bell, and Brown, which is where the risk and reward starts on this team. Howard and Pryor are two players that are fairly safe, but also come with elite upside, especially for their low price tags. White and Griffin are coming off a week in which they both saw a huge uptick in targets, which means there is plenty of upside to be had if they continue to be used as heavy parts of the offense. Gordon is another fairly safe option, but he possesses multi-touchdown upside against an injured Saints defense. Last, the Falcons defense fit into the team, and while they aren’t an elite defense, they get a good matchup against the Panthers, who defenses have had success against this season.
Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters. As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience. To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. There are instructions on the first sheet. If you have any questions whatsoever about how to use the optimizer, or if it’s not working for you, e-mail me at email@example.com. I’ll do my best to get back to you right away. If you don’t have Excel 2010 or later, then shoot me an e-mail with constraints you want, and I’ll run it for you. Also, if you have any ideas for things you’d want to see included in future iterations of this, then I’d also love to hear about them! Thanks, and have fun!!
QUICK NOTE: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include. For instance, I’m not keen on using the Titans DST this week, so I would remove them using the filters on the optimizer and then run it again. If you have any questions at all, shoot me an e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org. Good luck this week!
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||FanDraf||Yahoo||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Defense Opp FanDraf Yahoo Off Points Sack Int Fum Rec DefTD RetTD FPPG
New England Patriots HOU $7,800 $20 16.9 2 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 8.4
Atlanta Falcons SEA $5,000 $16 21.6 2.6 0.8 0.4 0 0 6.2
Pittsburgh Steelers @KC $5,600 $13 22.2 2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 4.8
Dallas Cowboys GB $5,200 $12 27.0 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
Kansas City Chiefs PIT $6,700 $19 24.4 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0 3.9
Green Bay Packers @DAL $5,500 $13 26.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 0 0 3.2
Seattle Seahawks @ATL $5,900 $16 31.9 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 2.6
Houston Texans @NE $4,600 $10 27.2 1.5 0.1 0.6 0 0 2.5
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART
You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|