Week 3 DraftKings Value Picks
September 18, 2014 | Ian Goldsmith
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Russell Wilson: $6800 – Seattle v. Denver
While no quarterback is mistake free, Wilson sure looks to be as close to that distinction as possible He relies on his defense to do their work and calmly manages the offense when the Seahawks have the ball. Having a running back like Lynch helps take some pressure off, but Wilson’s true star quality is his patience in the pocket. Yes, he can run well with the ball, but he usually doesn’t have to because, unlike a lot of lesser QBs in the league, he actually goes through his reads and doesn’t stare down just one receiver. I don’t expect a huge game from him this week by any means, but his price has steadily dropped to the point that he must be worth strong consideration. I project only 18-20 FP this week, but if Denver gets off to a lead (easier said than done for visitors in Seattle) than this number could climb. Cash play.
Ryan Tannehill: $6300 – Miami v. Kansas City
Tannehill has had a mediocre start to the season. While his team looked great in Week 1, it was the running game that shined, not him. Last week Miami was dealt major injuries to their running backs. Buffalo got up early and Tannehill had to throw the ball 49 times to try and mount a comeback. While it wasn’t a great performance, he was able to distribute the ball to eight receivers, which is a great sign. He gets a great matchup this week at home against Kansas City, whose defense has given up the third most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Miami would be wise to get him involved heavily early in the game. He’s a risky pick, but one that shouldn’t be heavily owned, which is perfect in tournament. Only a tournament play.
Khiry Robinson: $3900 – New Orleans v. Minnesota
Mark Ingram had started the season off magnificently. Unfortunately for him, he broke his hand last week against Cleveland. The Saints, however, always carry a plethora of running backs. Khiry Robinson is the next man up and has the opportunity to have a huge game at home against a depleted Minnesota team. He runs hard and is not a liability in the passing game. Pierre Thomas will obviously garner a lot of attention from Brees in the passing game, but this game has all the makings of a blowout. Without Peterson, Minnesota simply does not have enough firepower to match up with the Saints. Robinson should get a steady dose of handoffs in the second half after Brees builds a big lead in the first. I’m using him in tournaments mostly, but have him in a few 50/50s.
Donald Brown: $3500 – San Diego at Buffalo
Brown is another near-minimum pick that gets the nod this week. His price is low enough that there is little downside, although I am wary of how much use he will get in Buffalo. The Bills are only giving up 14 fantasy points to running backs per game. They are vulnerable in the passing attack, however, as running backs have been able to average 6.5 receptions against them in the first two games this season. This, however, likely benefits Brown’s teammate Danny Woodhead more. Even so, at his price I’m taking the chance with him in a few tournaments. San Diego’s offense is good enough that they will have several red zone opportunities, which means that Brown should have a good chance to try and punch in a TD. Tournament play only.
Steve Smith: $4500 – Baltimore at Cleveland
The old man has not so quietly become the clear cut #1 WR option in Baltimore. He is averaging over 20 DK FP per game through the first two weeks and has been targeted a whopping 25 times. His price miraculously dropped by $1000 this week. That seems insane to me. He gets a great matchup against Cleveland this weekend, who have given up nearly 300 yards passing per game. I’d be a little cautious if Joe Haden lines up against him as Smith would be giving up a couple of inches. Even so, he makes a great cash play at his price and is worth using in some tournaments because of his upside.
Golden Tate: $5000 – Detroit v. Green Bay
Tate has put up two solid games so far with his new team. Calvin Johnson finally has a competent WR on the other side to take off some of the pressure that he faces on a regular basis (not that added pressure can stop Megatron). Tate will look to get involved as Matt Stafford lights up the Packers’ secondary this week. Stafford has averaged over 300 yards and 2 TDs per game in his career against Green Bay. Be aware that Stafford has a lot of options in the passing game, especially his two catch-happy RBs. Because of Stafford’s ability to spread the ball, I’m using Tate only in tournaments.
Larry Donnell: $4000 – New York Giants v. Houston
The Giants’ offensive line is still in shambles. They’ve given up 6 sacks already and the bleeding will not stop this week against JJ Watt and company. Eli Manning’s only way to stay on his feet is to dump the ball of quickly to either his RBs or his TE. This has worked out well for Donnell, who has come out of nowhere to have 12 catches on 17 targets, tied for 22nd most in the league. Donnell’s price only bumped up $1000 this week on DraftKings. At only $4000, he is worth a look because of his heavy usage in the NYG offense. I lean towards using him in tournaments, but would not be opposed to his use in cash games because of his low price.
Charles Clay: $3500 – Miami v. Kansas City
Kansas City’s injury riddled defense is giving up the 5th most points to tight ends so far. Without a force like Derrick Johnson roaming the middle, they are ripe for the picking. Clay had a quiet Week 1, but got more involved last week against the Bills, catching 7 of 8 targets. With Knowshon Moreno out for the week, Tannehill would be wise to use his tight end more often. He’s a tournament play this week and could pay huge dividends at only $3500.
New Orleans: $3200
Rob Ryan’s defense has vastly underperformed so far this year. That is going to change this week in the Saints’ home opener. The dome will be rocking and the defense will be pumped up. What, you think Minnesota’s two Matts will be able to do damage? No way. Peterson was the only chance that the Vikings had to compete. Without him, the Saints will feast.
Hmmm….JJ Watt and Co. against one of the worst offensive lines in all of football? Yes please! This one doesn’t need much explanation. The Texans should force a few turnovers and have a very good chance at returning one for a score.
Week 2 Recap
Last week was a perfect example of why you should take midweek advice with a grain of salt. A ton of news occurred once Friday afternoon arrived. Peterson was indicted, which made Asiata a top value play. Doug Martin didn’t play, which left Bobby Rainey as a stud start. If you had started both as your value plays for a combined $7800, you would have been rewarded with a monster 42.8 FP for a multiple of 5.49! If only I had written my column a day later! My picks of Brady and Cassel were made thinking Peterson was going to play. That obviously didn’t happen, and New England’s defense was able to bottle up anything the Vikings threw at them. All Brady had to do was manage the game. Without a true running game, Cassel was forced into mistakes repeatedly. That’s not reflected in last week’s picks, unfortunately. Oh well, c’est la vie. Here’s a recap of the massacre my picks were last week.
Value Stud (3+ FP/$1000)
Larry Donnell: 5.03 PPT – Eli’s new favorite target.
Good Play (2.5-2.99)
Kyle Rudolph: 2.64 – Will probably be looked to more often without Peterson in the mix.
TY Hilton: 2.5 – Wasn’t able to get behind the secondary, but was looked to fairly often.
Mediocre Play (2-2.49)
Lineup Killer (<2)
Cassel: 1.86 – Had no running game to make him seem more threatening.
Jackson: 1.78 – Spiller took the heavy load.
Miller: 1.59 – Was hurt during the game against Buffalo.
Tampa Bay: 1.56 – Looked surprisingly pedestrian against a 3rd string QB.
Brady: 1.42 – Didn’t have to do anything because his defense did everything.
Wayne: 1.09 – Indianapolis decided to run, run, run. Not that it helped.
Denver: 0.97 – Kansas City were masters of time management in the second half. Broncos D was TIRED.
Cooper: 0.45 – It was Sproles mania. Was anybody else on the field? Sproles looked like multiple people.