Week 3 DFS Cheat Sheet: FantasyDraft and Yahoo! (UPDATED)
September 24, 2016 | Ian Goldsmith
Welcome to Week 3 of the 2016 The Fake Football FantasyDraft and Yahoo! DFS Cheat Sheet!
. With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Doug Shain, Chet Gresham, and Justin Bales we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FantasyDraft and Yahoo!, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news. And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our a sheet from last season to see what you get.
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Rashad Jennings is out. Shane Vereen will get the bulk of the work and has some DFS appeal for his price against Washington today.
Kenyan Drake will get the start over Jay Ajayi. This is looking like a huge mess, so I would stay away from it if you can. Ajayi had been the No. 2 back until this week, so who knows how many touches are spread out today.
Delanie Walker is still a game time decision. Don’t use him today.
Brandon Marshall is expected to play, but will be on a snap count. He can be used in some redraft situations, but bump Decker and Enunwa slightly in DFS.
Alshon Jeffery is expected to play. The injury is scary, but the targets should be there as long as he’s okay. Wouldn’t use him in any H2H or 50/50s.
Sammy Watkins won’t play. He had tweeted out that he was ready to go last night, but it appears he has not been cleared by the doctors.
Jamaal Charles is out, which gives Spencer Ware another start. Ware has faced Houston and San Diego so far has a 6 yards per carry average and a 19.7 yards per reception average. That receiving number will go down, but the guy has a ton of upside, even in a tougher matchup with the Jets.
Thomas Rawls is doubtful against the 49ers this week, so Christine Michael will get the lead back work. Michael has looked very good so far this offseason and in the first two games and should be worth your hard earned DFS money. In two games he has 157 yards on 30 touches. The 49ers stopped Todd Gurley Week 1, but the Rams had a total meltdown in that game. Last week though, Fozzy Whittaker went for 100 yards on just 16 carries against them. They will be in Seattle and I expect the Seattle defense to step up, which should allow Michael plenty of work with a lead or at worst a close game.
Sammy Watkins missed every practice this week after having his injured foot stepped on in a walkthrough. He’s questionable, but Rex Ryan says he chances of playing are “not real good.” Sit him no matter what you hear on Sunday. Marquise Goodwin, Robert Woods and Charles Clay get a bump in targets, but against the Cardinals I think this mainly moves the needle toward trying to get the Cardinals’ D/ST on your team.
Antonio Gates is listed as doubtful after missing Friday’s practice. Rookie Hunter Henry will get the start in a great matchup, but he’s still very much a mystery as to how many targets he’ll see and how he’ll do, but I could see throwing him in a DFS tournament due to his low price and nice matchup. If Henry doesn’t take Gates’ targets, then Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams should see an uptick.
Julio Jones didn’t practice on Friday, but coach Dan Quinn seems optimistic about his status for Monday night. If he practices Saturday I’d feel much better about rostering him. Mohamed Sanu on the other hand got in a full practice on Friday and should be ready to go. If Jones looks like he may be hobbled at all, Sanu could see a plethora of targets against a bad defense.
Brandon Marshall got a limited practice in on Friday and is listed as questionable. The Jets are calling him a game-time decision, but he is leaning toward the starting side of things. Unfortunately it is a late afternoon kickoff, which is perilous if Marshall ends up sitting. Either way you look at it though, Eric Decker and Quincy Enunwa should see a bit more work.
Willie Snead didn’t practice on Friday due to a toe injury, but could practice on Saturday since they play Monday night. Hopefully we will have a better read on this after practice Saturday, because Snead has a good matchup and Michael Thomas would be a great play if Snead can’t go.
Ka’Deem Carey is listed as doubtful, so rookie Jordan Howard should be the main backup to Jeremy Langford, but with how Langford has looked, I could easily see Howard getting the “hot hand” treatment against the Cowboys.
Alshon Jeffery got a limited practice in on Friday and is listed as questionable. I expect him to play, but he plays Sunday night, so you will want to carry another receiver from that game or Monday night’s game just in case.
Rashad Jennings will play with a cast on his left thumb against Washington Sunday. He was bad last week in a great matchup against the Saints, so I think the cast is an extra reason to drop him off your radar this week.
Delanie Walker is listed as questionable, but didn’t practice on Friday after being limited on Thursday. If he can’t go this does hurt Marcus Mariota, but would funnel even more targets to Tajae Sharpe.
Virgil Green is out with a calf injury. John Phillips will start in his place. C.J. Anderson could see a bump in targets this week.
Dolphins coach Adam Gase still hasn’t named a starter, but we know for sure Arian Foster is out. That leaves Jay Ajayi, Kenyan Drake, Isaiah Pead and Damien Williams, but Ajayi did lead the backfield in touches after Foster went down. It will be a committee, but if you’re desperate, Ajayi is the start against a weak Browns defense.
Jonathan Stewart is out and Cameron Artis-Payne will get the start, but will split work with Fozzy Whittaker. I think they cancel each other out too much with Mike Tolbert and Cam Newton around for short yardage. Whittaker could have some use in PPR, but the Vikings defense is stout.
Chris Ivory is listed as questionable, but does look like he will play. How much he will play is up in the air, but he would likely get all the goal line looks if he is active.
Zach Ertz has been ruled out, which elevates Trey Burton once again. Burton scored a touchdown against the Bears last week and gets a good matchup with the Steelers weak secondary this week.
Sample FantasyDraft Lineups
Sunday GPP 2
FantasyDraft Lineup Configurations
Let this be my weekly reminder that we are not trying to WIN a cash game. We are merely trying to finish in the top 50% of the field in which we play. This means we are not looking for the guys with the highest ceilings, but instead for the players with the highest floors. With the way the Jags are playing, I’d say that Blake Bortles has a pretty darn high floor. Jacksonville trails in all their games and that’s when Bortles plays his best. He’s been getting a ton of volume and I love that in my cash games. Let’s not forget that Josh McCown had a pretty great first half against the Ravens before he got hurt. I’m going to pair Bortles with his top WR, Allen Robinson, for this matchup. The targets are there for ARob and this is the week he turns those into points. The first two names I clicked on for cash this week were Melvin Gordon and Stefon Diggs. Both will be very highly owned but that doesn’t bother me in a cash game. What I do like is that both are rising talents whose prices haven’t risen to meet their expected output. I love when I can get some value in a cash game. I used some of that value to lock in cash game studs Eric Decker and David Johnson. It doesn’t get more consistent than those two guys. You know exactly what you’re getting, and that’s a high floor with some room for upside. Neither of those guys will bust you with a bad game. Jesse James has become a pretty safe TE play on the lower end of the price scale. Big Ben seems to trust him and that’s always a good thing, especially around the goal line. If you’re nervous about James then you could sub in Kyle Rudolph and his ridiculously high target share and be just fine. Oakland gives up a ton of points to the RB and now they are facing a rejuvenated Demarco Murray. With Murray catching passes, his floor has risen to the point where he’s really safe in a cash game. Miami has the best matchup of any defense this week and I’ll just roll them out along with 60% of the rest of the field. I’m good with that. Make sure you put this lineup into a GPP as well because I think it plays well in both formats. You never want to miss out on a big score because you didn’t spend a buck or two to take a shot in a tournament with your cash game lineup.
I absolutely love Tennessee in Week 3. They’ve got a really good matchup against the Raiders and I think it’s one that warrants a 3 player stack. I don’t normally like to do this but I project good games from Mariota, Murray, and Walker so I might as well go for the gusto and play all three. This is a risky move because if TEN lays an egg this lineup is toast. I don’t think that will happen. Because of the volatility of using 3 players from one team, I treated the rest of this lineup almost like a cash game (with some upside). I made sure to lock in good values with Gordon and Diggs as well as relative safety of Antonio Brown and Jeremy Maclin (he’s near the top of the NFL in targets). I took a little chance with Sterling Shepard but I think he’ll be the most productive NYG wideout in a very promising matchup. For my defense I got a little cute and took the Broncos. To me, they are the best defense in the NFL by a wide margin. I think they’ll be underowned this week because of the road matchup in Cincy. If any part of an NFL game travels well, it’s defense. They’re going to get pressure on Dalton and should produce their normal, quality performance.
Sunday GPP 2
I thought about making a Miami lineup with Tannehill and DeVante Parker (perhaps one will come this weekend) but decided I just liked the prospects of a Jacksonville stack too much to move off it at this point. You’ve already read my reasons for liking them but know that they have more than just a high floor this week, they’ve also got a really high ceiling. At $12.3k I’ll take the Bortles ceiling all day long. At RB I went with the two biggest names on the slate in DJ and DWill. They’re going to get a ton of work and both can break down any defense. Neither matchup worries me at all. As you read up above, I love TEN this weekend and Murray is just a solid play for a reasonable price. Kyle Rudolph is seeing a lot of passes in this Vikings offense and I don’t expect that to change against CAR. This is a sneaky good matchup as Vance McDonald did ok for himself last weekend with some busted Panthers coverage. Marvin Jones could do to GB what Stefon Diggs did last weekend. He’s a TD away from having a big game every week. If Donte Moncrief is out this week I like Dorsett to be the top scoring Colts WR with Jason Verrett shadowing TY Hilton. He’s my favorite cheap play of the week at any position. The Giants have played well in both their games this year and now get to face a struggling Kirk Cousins. That’s plenty good for me in a GPP.
I so badly wanted to do a Tannehill/Parker stack for this lineup but it felt way too chalky. I mean, who’s not going to be on that stack this week? I know that Bortles/ARob isn’t exactly sleeper material but I can see their ownership being low enough (compared to the Miami duo) that they’ll be worth it. I just think this game is going to have fireworks and Allen Robinson is going to break out in a big way. I don’t see how I can get off Melvin Gordon at $10.9k at this point. His upside is so great that I don’t care about the ownership. He gives me such a salary boost that it’s worth sharing his points with 60% of the field. I decided to pair Gordon with Eddie Lacy because of how poorly Aaron Rodgers is playing right now. The Packers need to do something to give this offense a lift and maybe riding Shreddie is the way to go. His price is right to take that chance. After a lot more research, I’ve done a complete 180 on TY Hilton. I, along with the rest of the world, was worried about TY getting shadowed by Jason Verrett. That’s not going to happen nearly as much as advertises because TY runs a lot out of the slot and Verrett never goes to the slot. He only covered Maclin and Allen Robinson on about 8% of the routes those two ran out of the slot. If a DB doesn’t go to the slot, he doesn’t go to the slot and that’s not going to change. I’m all about Hilton as a massive HuLo play this week. I’m using both of my Flex spots for big time WR. Maclin is in the top 3 in the NFL in targets and the Jets can’t stop any WR. Cooper was one controversial call away from a monster game last week. Carr loves him and they’re going to throw a ton this week (every week). Those rushing TD that OAK is getting are totally fluky and they will turn to passing TD very soon. Dennis Pitta looked great last week and he should be able to abuse the JAX LB corps. If you’re running a Ravens stack, maybe it’s Pitta you want and not Mike Wallace. Finally, I’ll join the group think and roll out the Dolphins D. The matchup is just too juicy to pass on.
Sample Yahoo! Lineups
Thursday GPP (Updated)
Sunday 50/50 (Updated)
Sunday GPP (Updated)
Yahoo! Lineup Configurations
I started this lineup with a stack of Mariota and Sharpe, who get a great matchup against the Raiders this week. Oakland’s defense has been dominated this season, and the Titans offense is a sneaky stack. Gordon, Diggs, and Pitta are all a bit cheap based on their roles in their offenses and potential upside. Elliott has struggled a bit this season, but he gets an elite matchup this week, and he has tremendous upside. Parker is also coming off a great game, and as long as he stays healthy, he should continue to be able to produce quite a bit this season. Williams was a safer option on this team, as he continues to dominate while starting for the suspended Bell. Last, the Bengals defense fit into the lineup, and they get a good matchup against the Broncos this week.
I opted to use a few salary relief options to pair with expensive players. Drew Brees and the Saints are always an elite stacking option when they play in New Orleans. I opted to use Brees and Snead, who has looked outstanding this season. Crower, Diggs, Pitta, and Wallace have all been big parts of their respective offenses, and they all come with low price tags, as well. Gordon will get a chance to be the workhorse back this week with Woodhead out. He also gets a great matchup, and should have no problems hitting value. Williams is an elite option with Bell out, and he is one of the safest options on the slate. Last, the Cardinals defense fit into the lineup, and they have looked outstanding this season.
This lineup began with a three man stack of the Chargers. They get an elite matchup against the Colts, who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The QB/RB/WR stack is one of the highest upside stacks in fantasy football. I added Riddick, who will likely see extended playing time with Abdullah injured. Jones, Diggs, and Parker are all fairly safe receiving options, but they also all come with elite upside. Reed gets a great matchup against the Giants, who struggle to guard the tight end, and Reed is one of the best fantasy tight ends in the NFL. Last, the Seahawks defense fit into the lineup, and they get a good matchup against the 49ers this week.
Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters. As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience. To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. There are instructions on the first sheet. If you have any questions whatsoever about how to use the optimizer, or if it’s not working for you, e-mail me at email@example.com. I’ll do my best to get back to you right away. If you don’t have Excel 2010 or later, then shoot me an e-mail with constraints you want, and I’ll run it for you. Also, if you have any ideas for things you’d want to see included in future iterations of this, then I’d also love to hear about them! Thanks, and have fun!!
Note: The Yahoo! lineup below initially gave Delanie Walker. Since he is questionable, I reran the optimizer without him. The result is below. Also, this is an example of where you should use judgment. Blake Bortles was in every lineup I made, because projections of him were high across the board on several sites. However, Ryan Tannehill is only $11,700 on FantasyDraft, and is a much safer play with higher upside, in my opinion. Remember, use optimizers as a base line for your lineup building. It isn’t a be all, end all. Good luck this week!
QUICK NOTE: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include. For instance, I’m not keen on using the Titans DST this week, so I would remove them using the filters on the optimizer and then run it again. If you have any questions at all, shoot me an e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org. Good luck this week!
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||FanDraf||Yahoo||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Defense Opp FanDraf Yahoo Off Points Sack Int Fum Rec DefTD RetTD FPPG
New England Patriots HOU $7,800 $20 16.9 2 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 8.4
Atlanta Falcons SEA $5,000 $16 21.6 2.6 0.8 0.4 0 0 6.2
Pittsburgh Steelers @KC $5,600 $13 22.2 2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 4.8
Dallas Cowboys GB $5,200 $12 27.0 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
Kansas City Chiefs PIT $6,700 $19 24.4 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0 3.9
Green Bay Packers @DAL $5,500 $13 26.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 0 0 3.2
Seattle Seahawks @ATL $5,900 $16 31.9 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 2.6
Houston Texans @NE $4,600 $10 27.2 1.5 0.1 0.6 0 0 2.5
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART
You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|