Week 3 DFS Cheat Sheet
September 26, 2015 | Chet
Welcome to Week 3 of The Fake Football DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Chet Gresham, Ian Goldsmith and Doug Shain, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, and Fantasy Aces, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those three. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our Week 1 Cheat Sheet to see what you get.
Draftkings 100% Deposit Bonus
INJURY NEWS (9/25)
*Ladarius Green is still dealing with concussion like symptoms. They still haven’t ruled him out, but they have signed a TE off the practice squad and it would be madness if they let him play. For DFS purposes this boosts Stevie Johnson’s value and makes him a very good start while Keenan Allen is getting covered by Xavier Rhodes. Play Stevie.
*C.J. Spiller is reported to be a full go this week and to be heavily involved. With Drew Brees out and Luke McCown starting, the wide receivers are iffy, but Spiller could get a ton of work if they are playing from behind and McCown is checking down all day. He’s not a safe play by any means in DFS, but he has some pretty interesting upside for GPPs.
*Eddie Lacy participated in Friday’s practice and with an extra day to heal it looke like he has a good chance to play Monday. We can’t use him in DFS, but now we can’t use James Starks either.
*Jerricho Cotchery has been ruled out and supposedly Devin Funchess is supposed to see an expanded role. I’m not biting, but the matchup sure is enticing.
*Allen Hurns had a thigh issue, but has practiced the last two days. I still like him for some garbage time production at a cheap cost against the Patriots.
*Suprisingly Marshawn Lynch is questionable with a calf injury. The news is that he will test it out on Saturday to see where he is. That would be nice since they play the afternoon game and we would have to ditch all efforts to play a Seahawks RB against the hapless Bears. If we do learn that he is out Fred Jackson and Thomas Rawls look like they’ll get the work and at their prices and this matchup, both could be worth using in DFS.
*Andre Ellington is doubtful. This isn’t too surprising, but we should see David Johnson get more work and since his specialty is receiving it could only help Carson Palmer’s upside.
* DeAndre Hopkins is listed as probable against Tampa Bay. He has yet to be completely cleared, but the Texans must believe it’s just a formality to list him as probable. He’s one of my favorite plays this week in DFS and thankfully they play the early game and we will know with plenty of time if he is going for sure. I’m leaving him in my LUs.
*DeMarco Murray is listed as questionable, but appears like he will play. Neither Murray or Mathews is worth the risk in DFS this week. Darren Sproles has some upside in GPPs, but I’m probably staying away.
*Delanie Walker is listed as probable. That’s good news for the Titans and makes playing Marcus Mariota in GPPs more palatable. This game could be high scoring and Mariota could put up stats.
*Eric Decker is listed as questionable, but didn’t practice this week. If he did play it wouldn’t be much. Fire up Brandon Marshall. I know I will.
*Tevin Coleman is out. Devonta Freeman gets a tough matchup, but will buoy his stats with receptions and the Falcons should be able to move the ball and get into scoring distance for Freeman. He’s risky, but makes for a nice cost saver and should see plenty of work.
*Dwayne Allen has been ruled out. That moves Coby Fleener up into DFS startability, especially against the Titans who Football Outsiders ranks as last against TEs. I will be adding him in when I update lineups Saturday night.
*Chris Ivory is a game time decision. Thankfully it is an early game and if he can’t go Bilal Powell gets a nice bump and some DFS value.
*Be sure to look for our revised and new lineups Sunday morning.*
Sample FanDuel Lineups
Drew Brees killed me last week, so I’m going to diversify a bit more this week. Tom Brady has been absolutely on fire and if I could fit Gronk and Edelman in here I would, but in cash I want to go as safe as possible and to roster them I’d have to play guys I don’t feel great about. Murray and Peterson are a nice combo. Peterson is going to get his work like we saw last week and Murray gets the worst rush defense in the league. Olsen is my safe bet for a touchdown this week and Marshall and Fitz should see plenty of work to keep them safe.
UPDATE: I am now avoiding Marshawn Lynch. It pains me, but there is too much risk that even if we hear he is playing, that he could be limited and/or be sat after Seattle gets a big lead. I have updated the lineup above to exclude Lynch.
Foles’ price, plus the Steelers’ porous defense makes him a tough QB to stay away from this week. He isn’t great, but with his price he doesn’t need to be and we also get to add some safe/high floor wide receivers. Antonio Brown and Brandon Marshall are those safe WRs and Adrian Peterson is our safe running back. I’m going with the mini-stack of Foles/Cook because Cook is seeing enough targets to have a good floor and his upside is high in this game. Stevie Johnson gets a nice matchup with Allen getting coverage from Rhodes and Ladarius almost certainly out with a concussion.
In my pure GPP lineups I try my hardest to get Gronk in there. With other tight ends you just don’t have his upside and consistency. I have a Cardinals stack here and will be banking on Palmer to Fitz and Brown for TDs and yards and more TDs.
For my 1PM Only lineup I’m sticking with my guys for the most part. Lambo is a decent cheap play on a good offense. Julio Jones is the reason I like this lineup so much. He’s not as consistent as Antonio Brown but he has slightly more upside.
For this GPP I’m going a little further outside the box than usual, but I think there is a decent chance Blake Bortles and company can put up some points on the weak Patriots secondary and will also be in catch up mode for much of the game. Bell has a fairly tough matchup and hasn’t played in a while, so I’m trying to use him in GPPs more than cash games. Hopkins is probable to play and has a ton of upside as the no-doubt #1 target.
Sample DraftKings Lineups
Updated Sunday 50/50
Updated Sunday GPP
DraftKings Lineup Configurations
First off, let’s talk defense. Frankly, last week’s picks did not work out for me. Miami, St. Louis and New Orleans – the latter two whom I liked in GPPs – all failed, though New Orleans at least returned 7 points. This week, there are two matchups that look obvious and I’m sticking to them: Seattle DST at home vs. Chicago and NE DST at home vs. Jacksonville. Both are 14 point favorites. I’m sticking with the Hawks in these three lineups, but New England will save you $300 if you want to bump up another position. If Drew Brees is out this weekend, then I also love the Panthers (who are probably a good play regardless).
That taken care of, let’s move on. If you’ve read this cheat sheet before, you’ll know that I hate using Thursday players. The games are generally more defensive and very unpredictable as the players are going on just a few days’ rest – not ideal for fantasy. However, when giving a Thursday lineup I like to include at least one player for you whom I think is safe (whatever that means in fantasy). That player this week is Jordan Reed. Reed has proven to be a safety blanket for Kirk Cousins through two games, catching 13 passes on 17 targets in the first two games.
At RB, I’m rolling with Dion Lewis. This is not chasing points, I swear! Jacksonville is actually really good against the run, giving up a paltry 73.5 yards per game – currently 5th in the NFL. However, they are susceptible to RBs who can catch out of the backfield (Miami RBs caught 8 passes in Week 2 and Carolina backs caught 7 in Week 1). Do you think Belichick is going to use Blount for that? No. He’s going to use the guy with good hands who just played 73/86 snaps last week. I love his price point, especially on full PPR sites like DraftKings. I’m pairing him with Danny Woodhead, whom Philip Rivers has a man crush on.
I’m stacking Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald. While they will be popular plays, I think both pan out yet again at home against a very weak San Francisco secondary. The price points are just too low to ignore…If they light it up for a third time in a row, expect the prices to rise quickly. Next to Fitz is Antonio Brown. He needs no explanation, but if Jermaine Kearse can give an 8/76 line against the Rams’ secondary, I shudder to think what Brown can do, especially with Le’Veon Bell back to take attention away from him.
Rounding out the lineup are Allen Robinson and Le’Veon Bell. I admittedly didn’t like Robinson enough last week and paid the price for not starting him. While I think New England dominates this Sunday, Robinson is going to be thrown to a lot in garbage time whilst trying to catch up…and garbage time should probably start by the 2nd quarter. Bortles to Robinson. Rinse. Repeat. Bell is a different story. This is his first game back and nobody knows what to expect. Haha…who am I kidding. This is Bell. The Rams were just torched by the Redskins’ RBs and if they focus on Bell, Big Ben will tear it up with Brown. I don’t see anything slowing down the Steelers’ attack and picking up Bell in his first week – before his ownership goes up – is a nice tourney play. His upside is well into the 30s.
*High-risk/High-reward Thursday Combo: Kirk Cousins/Pierre Garcon
UPDATE: Do not use this lineup! Most of it is perfectly fine, but this was put together late Monday evening before the news about Ladarius Green’s concussion hit on Tuesday. While there is a slim chance he’ll play, he is not worth the risk…..at all. So, avoid this lineup. I’ve provided an updated 50/50 for Sunday’s slate.
While it may seem odd to start four players from the same team, the Patriots are absolutely dominant right now and that will now stop this week at home to the Jaguars. Brady and Co. could play one half and still hit value how they are playing. Vegas has them scoring 31 this week; I think that’s their floor. Edelman leads all players with 31 targets through two weeks. Gronk has 21 targets and is Brady’s go to in the red zone. Frankly, you all know their strengths and consistency so I’ll move on.
At DST, I’m moving to the Panthers. This is assuming the Brees doesn’t play. Even if he does, I like Carolina in cash games, but without Brees they could go off. This saves me enough room to roster Antonio Brown again. Rishard Matthews, who has been targeted at least 6 times in each of the first two weeks, is a great – cheap – cash play at only $3,800. Filling out the roster is Ladarius Green, who will continue to be a safety blanket for Rivers until Gates returns. Alternatively, I like Eric Ebron and Kyle Rudolph who sit at the same $3,300.
This lineup moves away from the safer plays of the earlier two lineups and goes for much higher risk. I love Ryan Fitzpatrick this week. With Decker potentially unavailable, I’m pairing Fitz with Brandon Marshall. Byron Maxwell has given up a perfect passer rating to QBs who have thrown his way. His day will be made more difficult with the loss of Kiko Alonso and, if the football gods are even more cruel, potentially Mychal Kendricks. With their top two inside linebackers on the shelf, Philly is going to have a hard time stopping anyone. Ivory and Powell should have room to run, helping to draw coverage away from B-Marsh.
At TE, I’m taking a flier on Cleveland’s Gary Barnidge (who?!). Oakland has not just been bad so far against TEs, they have been abhorrent. They are giving up 31 FP per game to the position through two games. While that number will certainly regress to a lower number throughout the season, I’ll take my chances on Barnidge who is at the rock bottom price of $2,500. He is, obviously, only a tournament play. I’m also pulling the strings on Percy Harvin, who I think is in for a bounce back week against Miami, who looked awful in deep coverage against Jacksonville. Harvin is boom-or-bust, so don’t use him in cash games either. If you want to switch off of Harvin, you could double-up on Browns and roll with Travis Benjamin. While expecting another 50+ yard TD may be stretching it, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility against Oakland’s weak secondary.
This is also the week that CJ Anderson should finally live up to that 1st round redraft value. In a bonus for DFS players, his price has come down dramatically to only $6,200. I love him in tournaments this week, but will wait to use him in cash games until he has proven himself.
If you have any questions, hit me up at @ianrgold on Twitter and I’ll do my best to get back to you.
UPDATED Sunday 50/50
A Palmer/Fitz tandem leads the way here on this updated cash lineup. San Francisco’s secondary couldn’t stop anyone on the Steelers this past weekend and they have no shot at stopping a healthy and in-sync Cardinals offense. Edelman and Gronkowski are both near must plays at the moment in cash games. Brady is looking their way early and often and will continue to do so. The Patriots are playing with fire. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them put up another 40 spot against the Jags. I’ve included Dion Lewis here as well. While there are still a lot of questions about the Patriots’ run game, I’ve loved how they’ve used Lewis so far. He has really taken over the Vereen role and done it arguably better. Belichick seems to trust him as well, leaving him in after a couple of fumbles. Though Blount will indeed see an uptick in playing time, Lewis’ price is too low to ignore on a full PPR site like DraftKings.
At the other RB spot, I have put in Jamaal Charles. While the Packers looked decent against Lynch last week, Charles presents a different kind of challenge. He is one of the top three pass catching backs in the league, something which the Packers struggle against. Forte destroyed the Packers in Week 1 and, while Charles may not put up a 30 FP performance, 22-25 is well within reach. If you want to go cheaper, go much cheaper and roster Woodhead. I love a Lewis/Woodhead combo as well. It will allow you to upgrade at WR, too.
With Ladarius Green likely out, Stevie Johnson – who has already become one of Philip Rivers’ favorite targets – will see an uptick in targets. His price is still very depressed on DraftKings, so take advantage while you can. I’ve plugged in Rishard Matthews. He has really seemed to have developed a rapport with Tannehill so far, seeing 13 targets in the first two games. While Buffalo’s D is solid, we saw how they can be beat in the air last week. If you feel uncomfortable with Matthews, you could switch to Jared Cook at $2,800 or- if you swap Seattle for New England/Carolina, Doug Baldwin at $4,000. You could always save $ somewhere else and bump up to Danny Woodhead as well.
Updated Sunday GPP
I kept the same QB/WR tandem in this GPP lineup with Fitzpatrick and Marshall. I love the matchup and the two of them have really developed a rapport. If you want to switch away from Fitz, then look toward Nick Foles who is just $100 more and has fantastic upside against the Steelers’ pass “defense”. A Foles/Jared Cook combo could work very well. With Dwayne Allen out, Coby Fleener becomes an excellent high-upside play. Indianapolis needs a win and also needs to get their tight ends involved, both of which should happen this week. For what it’s worth, Fleener averaged more than 5 catcher per game with Allen out last year.
In this lineup, I’ve shied away from Antonio Brown, who is a viable play every week. Instead, I’m rolling with Sanders for Denver – who has a fantastic matchup against a poor Detroit pass defense – and AJ Green, who gets a depleted Ravens team this week. Green feasts on the Ravens. Amari Cooper destroyed the Ravens last week and I’m expecting a similarly big game from Green. As for defense….well, I’m rostering Seattle in basically every lineup. If you want to switch away from them, I like the chances for New England and Carolina to have big games.
Sample FantasyAces Lineups
UPDATED Sunday GPP
FantasyAces Lineup Configurations
The goal here is to be as safe as possible with my QB’s, load up on targets at WR/TE, hit some inexpensive RB that will get work, and get a defense that’s not going to screw it up. Always remember that you don’t need to win a cash game, you just need to finish in the top half of the field. Brady is going to throw against the Jags and Wilson should have a huge game against the Bears. Both guys have a chip on their shoulder for very different reasons, but those chips should turn into production. Edelman and Hopkins are in the top 5 in the NFL in targets and Landy is averaging 8 catches a game. Kyle Rudolph has a surprisingly high target total this year and that shouldn’t change this week. Norv Turner loves his TE. I went seemingly risky at RB but at closer inspection it’s not that bad. Dunbar has a matchup against a Falcons team that has given up big games to pass catching RB the last two weeks (Sproles/Vereen). Bruce Arians is going to get the ball to David Johnson this week, or so he says. The price is surely right to take that chance. Melvin Gordon is the bell cow for SD and as the season rolls on they are going to feed him more. At defense I decided to spend up and take the best matchup on the board.
Whereas I don’t care about ownership percentages for a cash game, I definitely look at it for a GPP. This is why I’m going with a couple of guys at QB that I expect to be fairly low owned in Russell Wilson and Carson Palmer. They have great matchups, are safe plays, and are somewhat under the radar. In a GPP I always like to go safe (in terms of touches) with my RB while still trying to find a play or two that’ll be under owned. I think AP is going to be very highly owned but he’ll get his production and I want that. DeMarco Murry is a guy that people are going to shy away from, but there’s no way that Philly goes away from him. I think they lean heavily on him this week and he gets back on track. I usually like to go high upside, cheap plays at WR, but with Fantasy Aces only requiring 2 WR I decided to go with guys getting big targets in Brown and Hopkins and save my upside for TE and FLEX. If Witten is at all slowed down this week I think Escobar is going to have a big game. They’re already targeting him in the red zone. For FLEX I’m using a couple of pass catching RB that have gained their coach’s trust. Opportunity = points. For defense I wanted an upside team that wasn’t Seattle or Arizona. Carolina at home against Luke McCown definitely fits that profile.
UPDATED Sunday GPP
Over the past 36 hours or so I’ve fallen in love with the idea of using a Fitzpatrick-Marshall stack against a weak Philly D. The duo looks in sync and they won’t break your budget. With a lot of higher profile combos out there I don’t think they’ll be too highly owned either. The other stack I’m rolling out is Peyton-Thomas. The Lions secondary is awful and that team in general is a mess. Peyton in primetime is about as money as it gets and people are sleeping a little on Thomas with the way Sanders has started the year. I’ll use that to my advantage and get the more talented guy at a lower ownership rate. I’m going double WR in the FLEX because I just love the matchups for both Moncrief and Green. All 4 WR should be in line for a large amount of targets. I’m going a little unconventional at RB and using a couple of the only rosterable mid-priced guys this week (it’s very all or nothing at RB). Both should see a huge workload against suspect run defenses. Gordon in particular has gotten nothing but praise from his teammates and is ready for a breakout game. I don’t love using 2 pass catchers from the same team but Indy should be throwing a ton against Tennessee and it’s not looking good for Dwayne Allen. Chuck Pagano and Pep Hamilton came out and said they want to increase their TE usage this week. That’s money for Fleener. Finally, at defense I’m going with Houston and expecting them to really get after Jameis Winston. They may give up a few long TD’s but they’ll get their sacks and turnovers as well.
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
The Matchup Machine is working overtime and will be complete Thursday by noon.
Excel: Week 3 NFL Matchup Statistics
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|RB2||Duke Johnson Jr.||CLE||@DET||21.8||83.4||3.8||0.9||6.0||50.1||0.13||8.1||133.5||18.10||0.61||1.0||10||17.6|
|RB1||Todd Gurley II||LAR||HOU||22.0||73.4||3.3||0.1||3.8||28.1||0.25||5.0||101.5||12.40||0.46||0.4||6||4.5|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO||AVG|
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.
|Quarterbacks||Opp||DK||DD||FD||Fan Pts||Com%||PaYds||PaTD||Int||Off Yds||Tot TD||Sck||FO||PFF||AVG||FDP||DDP||DKP|
|Robert Griffin III||JAX||$7,300||$12,950||$7,800||20.4||63.2||285.5||1.6||1.0||297.9||1.9||2.5||26.0||26.0||22.4||19.6||18.9||20.0|