Week 2 Starts and Sits
September 19, 2015 | Chet
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As alluded to last week, I’m trying something new with my Week 2 Starts and Sits. Based on the hit-and-miss accuracy of my Week 1 predictions, I will henceforth let fate determine my starts and sits by rolling three 20-sided dice for each player in my rankings. The players with the highest cumulative rolls will earn the honors of “Start” status for the week. In the event that a player returns a total score of less than 6, I will recommend you cut that player post haste, lest his bad dice juju taint anyone else on your team. Hey, it works for Dungeons & Dragons.
I kid, of course. What’s different about the Week 2 Starts and Sits is I’ll be explaining my choices on video. I hope to go this route every week, but we’ll see how the video production process compares to the workload for a written article. Whether there is video or not, I’ll always provide my picks in text form for those who want to cut to the chase.
I’ll also tie in game flow analysis based on my Game Flowbotics series from 2014 using DVOA rankings from Football Outsiders. The season just started, so it will take some time for the DVOA ratings to fully gestate. Until they do, I’ll be using FO’s DAVE rankings wherever possible. DAVE is a lot like DVOA, but it factors in preseason projections for each team. In general, we’re still learning gobs about every team in the NFL, so my starts/sits will lean primarily on my own player rankings and intuition until the DVOA numbers are more trustworthy. Here’s a link to the Week 2 game flow spreadsheet:
And here’s this week’s Starts and Sits video:
- Carson Palmer @ CHI: Bears might have the worst defense in the league.
- Eli Manning vs. ATL: He burned many last week, but this is another great match-up.
- Colin Kaepernick @ PIT: Might be due for a let-down, but the Steelers defense is soft.
- Joe Flacco @ OAK: The Raiders’ secondary is a trauma ward and this will be a nice opportunity for Flacco to work with his receivers.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick @ IND: The Colts should be better prepared for their home opener, but 2QBers should believe in Fitzmagic.
- Lamar Miller @ JAC: One lackluster game didn’t scare me away. Miller makes my top-10 this week.
- Ameer Abdullah @ MIN: Probably my best call from Week 1, I continue like Double-A, a.k.a. the Energizer.
- Rashad Jennings vs. ATL: His match-up is nice, but game script could be an issue. I’m taking the chance.
- Chris Johnson & David Johnson @ CHI: CJ?K is the starter, but I like DJPPR too.
- C.J. Spiller vs. TB: Contingent on him playing, but Spiller could go nuts in this match-up.
- Steve Smith @ OAK: See Joe Flacco above.
- Terrance Williams @ PHI: Strictly a call on volume.
- Eric Decker @ IND: I rank Brandon Marshall higher, but worry B-Marsh might face extra coverage ala Sammy Watkins in Week 1.
- Anquan Boldin @ PIT: Game flow should benefit SF’s receivers.
- Donte Moncrief vs. NYJ: I’m buying the hype.
- Nelson Agholor vs. DAL: We saw the Giants’ non-OBJ receivers get open in Week 1. Agholor > Preston Parker. Math wins again.
- Tyler Eifert vs. SD: I love him last week and I’ll probably love him all season. If he performs well again, he’ll graduate from start/sit consideration into weekly top-7 option.
- Martellus Bennett vs. ARI: The Cardinals traditionally struggle with tight end coverage.
- Vernon Davis @ PIT: See Colin Kaepernick & Anquan Boldin above.
- Austin Seferian-Jenkins @ NO: Jameis seems to trust him and TB should be forced to throw in this game.
- Jared Cook @ WAS: Deep consideration only, but Jordan Cameron performed well against Washington and Cook might be the Rams’ best red zone target.
- Philip Rivers @ CIN: The specter of west-to-east travel looms for San Diego.
- Cam Newton vs. HOU: Who can he throw to? The Panthers offense survived against the Jags, but now they face a real challenge.
- Jay Cutler vs. ARI: The Cardinals defense is legit.
- Tyrod Taylor vs. NE: The Buffalo crowd wants to set a noise record on Sunday. Feasible they’ll do it with boos after multiple #Tygod turnovers.
- Alfred Morris vs. STL: Volume will keep him safe-ish, but his opponent is terrifying.
- Latavius Murray vs. BAL: The Broncos had a hard time moving the ball against the Ravens in Week 1. It won’t be easier for Oakland.
- LeGarrette Blount @ BUF: I drafted him everywhere. Glad he’s back and he has TD upside every week, but this is an awful match-up.
- Tre Mason & Benny Cunningham @ WAS: Too difficult to forecast usage.
- Alfred Blue @ CAR: Avoid the Houston backfield until Arian Foster is healthy.
- Sammy Watkins vs. NE: Should bounce back to some extent, but I’m still not using him.
- Charles Johnson vs. DET: Showed little chemistry with Bridgewater and yes, that worries me.
- Kendall Wright @ CLE: No incentive for Joe Haden to cover anyone else.
- Brandon Coleman & Marques Colston vs. TB: Admittedly, I probably have one of them ranked too low. Question of which one is why I’m down on both. Feels like an Ingram + Spiller game.
- Stevie Johnson @ CIN: What a difference a week makes. See Philip Rivers above.
- Zach Ertz vs. DAL: Snap count be damned, the plethora of viable receivers in Philly make Ertz a risky play from week to week.
- Ladarius Green @ CIN: See Stevie Johnson and Philip Rivers above.
- Coby Fleener vs. NYJ: One more week of anti-Fleener propaganda. Countless better options for TE flyers.
Good luck in Week 2.