Week 2 Draft Day Picks
September 14, 2014 | Justin Edwards
I’d like to start Week 2 by apologizing to anyone who spent big, big $$ on guys who gave you some doo-doo numbers (raises hand). Drew Brees (outscored by Chad Henne), Jamaal Charles (11 touches, 7.40 FP), and Demaryius Thomas (11 targets, FOUR catches, 8.80 FP) laid out some very mediocre fantasy points and cost a huge chunk of your salary. These decisions don’t make you a bad fantasy player, and it obviously doesn’t make them bad real football players, it just means you have to understand that this is a big ol’ game of chance, and sometimes you just don’t have good luck.
One last thought before we kick Week 1 to the curb and get into how to bolster our bankroll: Andre Ellington is a turd. How dare he force me into thinking that starting Jonathan Dwyer was a good idea. I digress.
Three tiers or levels of players I will be looking at,
Arrogant Bastard: Some of the best around and a price tag to match
Budweiser: Solid choice with a solid price
Natural Light: The cheapest you can find while still obtaining value
Let’s get ‘Murica drunk:
Arrogant Bastard – Andrew Luck ($15,250)
Against a formidable Denver offensive attack, Andrew Luck got the chance to throw a whopping 53 passes. Sure that’s a little bit behind Joe Flacco’s 273 that he threw last week, but it’s still a lot of balls filling up the air. This week, Andrew and his caveman-esque neckbeard are going against a Philadelphia team that is looking to do some work on his defense for the second week in a row. Luck could easily get to 50+ pass attempts again, and this Philly secondary isn’t exactly waving the flag of shutdown cornerbacks. 20 fantasy points has to be the absolute floor, while the ceiling could be 30+.
Budweiser – Jake Locker ($11,700)
A super efficient game in week 1 against a D/ST that was much, much better than the Dallas Cowboys team he’s about to face here in week 2. If Locker can keep that completion percentage around 67% against this defense, there’s no reason he can’t beat out his 266 yards from last week. 288-2-1 from the 20th (!) QB in terms of salary? Fill in Jake Locker as your #2 QB everywhere you can.
Natural Light – Ryan Fitzpatrick ($10,350)
Why start a guy with minimal upside on your fantasy team? Fitzy is the perfect example of trying to cut cost on a player in a very expensive position. He’s never going 300-4-0, unless you’re playing on Rookie in Madden ’15, but he could go 230-2-1 while lucking into another Hopkins pass, breaking out, or bootlegging a TD in the Red Zone. We’ve all seen crazier things.
Arrogant Bastard – LeSean McCoy ($14,450)
Shady. Shady is my absolute favorite RB in the league this year with this offensive scheme. It doesn’t really matter what defense Philly is going against, but Indianapolis is sans-Robert Mathis for the season, and Denver ran over them before they decided to shut down their offense. McCoy will get 25+ touches, and I would put good money that he doesn’t go back-to-back games without a TD. I will be squeezing him in everywhere I can.
Budweiser – Pierre Thomas ($9,850)
Is he gonna rush more than 10 times? I sincerely doubt it. Is he gonna catch the ball more than 7 times? Probably not. But can he touch the ball 15 times and turn it into 80 yards? Don’t see why not. The TDs will come and go, but the receptions on a PPR site are golden. Perfect price for a guy you know what you’re getting from.
Natural Light – Ahmad Bradshaw ($6,450)
Maybe everybody is overreacting on this whole T-Rich thing. Trent is the #1 back on the depth chart. He’s going to get the ball, and he’s going to bust it up the middle over and over again. Indy traded a first round draft pick for him, so they’re not giving up on him. Sure he only saw 39% of the offensive snaps to Bradshaw’s 59%, but look at how many carries Richardson had! Wait. 6? Trent Richardson only had 6 carries?! Ahmad Bradshaw had 5 catches for 70 yards in a game that was absolutely fueled by offense? Colts are playing the Eagles this week? Bradshaw as a checkdown receiver, and the possibility of 10 carries, makes him worth this price all day every day. If he gets a TD, you’ll look like a genius.
Arrogant Bastard – Demaryius Thomas ($13,800)
So DT farted in your pillow last week. He took your sister out on a date and didn’t even give her his number afterwards. He drank the last beer. He ate the last piece of pizza that he didn’t even throw in on. Used the last square of toilet paper without replacing it. And worst of all, he scored you less than 9 points while costing over $13k! You usually stop hanging out with this type of guy, but your friend probably doesn’t have Peyton Manning throwing to him, and that crappy friend has no chance of putting a 7-120-2 statline into your fantasy lineup. But Demaryius Thomas does. You should forgive and forget. He won’t give you a 4-48-0 line two weeks in a row.
Budweiser – Kendall Wright ($10,600)
If someone would have asked me a few months ago if I would ever suggest two Tennessee Titans playing in the same week I would have raised an eyebrow for sure. This offense looks pretty legit, though. I don’t see them getting 350+ passing yards anytime this season, but if they do, it would be in week 2 against this fart storm of a defense in the Cowboys. The 7 targets Kendall got in the opener is pretty much his floor. 7 to 12 targets against a very bad defense is something I’d love to jump on. Wright is looking to steal another TD or at least get a 7-70-0.
Natural Light – Andrew Hawkins ($7,800)
For a dude who just caught 8 passes and is, for all intents and purposes, the #1 WR for the Browns, this is a very cheap price. I know Brian Hoyer isn’t exactly Matt Ryan, but this Saints defense just gave up 448 yards through the air. If Hoyer can throw about 60% of those yards, then Hawkins will be set up to have another 70-100 yard game. The Browns also just worked out a lot of TEs and signed Gerrell Robinson, which could be an indicator of Jordan Cameron’s health.
Arrogant Bastard – Jimmy Graham ($13,600)
It’s probably cheating to put this guy here every week, but honestly; you ever seen this guy play? I predicted a need for a 7-80-1 line for Graham to produce the value you would need to pay his large salary last week and he only got an 8-82-0 in the opener. So technically he might not have been the best value you could get, but that’s sort of nitpicking, right? Drew Brees only threw 1 TD, and there’s not too many times this year that is going to happen. Brees threw for multiple TDs in 11/16 games last year. Jimmy Graham had at least one of those TDs in 9/11 games. Something tells me the Browns are going to surrender more than one passing score this week. Get him in your lineup. 25+ points from a tight end is just too ridiculous of a possibility to pass up.
Budweiser – Kyle Rudolph ($8,350)
It’s hard to recommend a guy with only 4 targets, but the Vikings didn’t have to air it out at all in a blowout Week 1 win. 1/4 of his targets came in the Red Zone, and he turned his one opportunity into a 7 yard TD. Minnesota man-handled a hapless St Louis Rams team last week. This week they’re matched up against the New England Patriots, and they will have to lean on the pass much more. Rudolph will have more chances to grab the ball in the middle of the field and become a bigger part of this offense when the opposing team scores more than 6 measly points.
Natural Light – Marcedes Lewis ($6,900)
With Cecil Shorts out, Chad Henne and the Jaguars had a few extra targets to pass out (see: Marqise Lee, Allen Hurns). Marcedes was a beneficiary as well, but just couldn’t do a whole lot with it in week 1. He got 9 targets and turned it into 6 catches for 35 yards. These aren’t game changing numbers in a DFS lineup by any means, but it looks like Cecil is questionable again on Sunday, and I’ll take a TE with 9 targets against Washington’s D. Lewis also saw the field on 72 of Jacksonville’s 76 offensive snaps, so there’s no doubt he’ll be on the field when the QB is looking for a quick 8-10 yards.
Arrogant Bastard – Houston Texans ($6,750)
Houston had no problem beating RGIII and company into submission last week, and that was with Jadeveon Clowney not being a factor, mostly due to his injury. Clowney won’t be in this game, or the next 4-6, but expect this DEF to continue rolling against a Raiders team with a rookie quarterback and a running game that looks to be in shambles. Well worth the price against a team that could give up 5-6 sacks.
Budweiser – Green Bay Packers ($5,300)
In real life this isn’t exactly a top-10 defense. But luckily, in real life Geno Smith isn’t exactly a top-20 quarterback. He is, in all reality, a turnover-prone QB who throws at a 55% clip. Geno had an outlier day as an efficient pigskin thrower, and a very normal week of throwing a pick and losing a fumble. That 82% completion clip has nowhere to go but down and the man who committed 29 turnovers a year ago will remain. Look for a very acceptable day for this cheesehead D/ST.
Natural Light – Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,800)
At this price, you might not even need an upside. Pretty much anything outside of scoring negative points is worth this salary. The Redskins could miraculously score 30 points in this game, but if the trade off is 3 sacks and an interception, this price is still worth it.
Here’s how we’ll mix these guys into a lineup that should get us some solid duckets:
QB Andrew Luck
QB Jake Locker
RB LeSean McCoy
RB Ahmad Bradshaw
WR Andrew Hawkins
WR Demaryius Thomas
TE Kyle Rudolph
FLEX Darren Sproles
FLEX Michael Floyd
I’m hoping for a better return in Week 2 than Week 1. We’re 7 days more prepared and 7 days smarter. We have more information about matchups and targets/usage.
I create my lineups directed towards cash games, so keep that in mind as well.
Good luck fantasy nerds, hope you’re rolling in profit soon, and if not remember: “That’s the way she goes. Sometimes she goes, sometimes it doesn’t. She didn’t go. That’s the way she goes.”