Week 17 DFS Cheat Sheet (UPDATED)
December 28, 2014 | Chet
Welcome to Week 17 of The Fake Football DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Guru Rich Hribar, Ian Goldsmith and myself, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, and Draftday, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those four. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets.
Rest of Season is now 6.99
And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our Week 4 Cheat Sheet to see what you get.
Draftkings 100% Deposit Bonus
DraftDay: 100% Deposit Bonus up to $600
Check out Spreadsheet Sports powerful projection and optimal lineup tool and get $5 off by going through The Fake Football here.
** Please check your spam folder for an email from Swishu if you have purchased, but haven’t received the cheat sheet yet.
If you are prompted to pay or subscribe, but you have already paid, please just click the “Login Now” link at the top of the payment form and login using your email address and Swishu account password.
If you don’t know your Swishu account password or would like to reset your password, go here first: https://swishu.com/forgot and enter your email address. You’ll be logged in to The Fake Football automatically after resetting your password and logging in.
Sample FanDuel Lineups(by Rich Hribar)
FanDuel Lineup Configurations
Week 17 always presents a very interesting week for daily games. This week we have New England and Indianapolis with nothing to play for in terms of playoff seeding and Denver will know if the outcome of their game against Oakland matters by the time their game kicks off. Players from those three offenses are pretty off limits and I wouldn’t get too cute with their replacement players outside of long tournament plays.
I’ll be using Eli Manning a good amount this week considering his price and his attachment to Odell Beckham facing one of the coldest corners in the league this week in Bradley Fletcher. Manning is a cheaper way to get a piece of the highest priced receiver this week and as a low end WR3, I’m going to test the Rueben Randle waters one last time while I have to regret it for 2014. Tentatively, I’ll be locking in A.J. Green into lineups this week, and with no Thursday games this week, you’re afforded with being able to wait on news of his availability in all daily games. If he doesn’t go, I will pivot off him and Randle for Sanu and Randall Cobb to go along with Kelvin Benjamin as my receivers in cash games.
At running back, I love Alfred Morris and his pricing this week. He’s consistently performed when defenses account for Robert Griffin his entire career, so his floor is pretty steady. I also still believe that the Chiefs will need to ride Jamaal Charles to keep their playoff hopes alive, so I’m heading back to that well this week. Rounding out the rest of the team, Delanie Walker in a good matchup and prime garbage production style game with potential of Indy going through the motions is my favorite tight end this week since Gronk can’t be trusted. Shayne Graham and San Francisco are my kicker and DST teams of choice, but would have issue with anyone wanting to save some cap space on Buffalo.
This is a good week to see some fireworks and parity across tournaments. I’ll mostly be playing Cam Newton/Kelvin Benjamin and Andy Dalton/Green or Sanu stacks. The Panthers stack is surrounded with a little more balance overall and some high end options like Beckham and Houston defense, so I’ll just be sprinkling this one into tourneys. The second team is full of combustion, but has high ceiling potential since I’m paying up for three stud receivers who will be playing the entirety of their games. Paying up that highly forces you to give away a few spots, so I’m bargain hunting at tight end, defense and RB2, but I like all of those options to provide boom or bust type games.
SUNDAY Morning Update:
Early Only Lineup
You’ll notice some overlap right away with the early only lineup to a lot of the full slate cash options. Eli Manning and Andy Dalton are my favorite quarterback plays based on price point and with Dalton playing on Sunday night; Eli allows a lot of flexibility. In the main lineup, we were using Manning as an arbitrage on Odell Beckham’s scoring, but we can also fit Beckham himself in here. Surrounding him at receiver, Charles Johnson is still in an area to exceed his priced point against a poor Chicago defense that allowed him to catch six passes for 87 yards before even really getting acclimated to his current role in the Minnesota passing game. Jarvis Landry is a receiver I feel comfortable with in cash games since he has a safe floor (five or more receptions in eight straight) albeit with a limited a ceiling due to the types of targets he garners in the Miami offense. He’s good for a floor of 9-10 points without reaching the end zone.Delanie Walker and Mychal Rivera are my favorite tight end plays this week with Gronk out of the picture, and Rivera isn’t an option for this slate, so Walker is my go to.
At running back, I’m turning to Alfred Morris often this week, and with Rolando McClain out for this game, I feel even better than I did recommending him early in the week. With Alex Smith out, I’m still convincing myself that Jamaal Charles is the best running back outside of Le’Veon Bell this week. I’ll have a ton of exposure to him this week despite his past two performances. Putting a bow on this team, Buffalo defense is already a good pass defense when facing anyone, so facing a rookie quarterback in extended run as New England assuredly will rest multiple guys at reduced price is something I can get on board with.
Sample DraftDay Lineups (by Chet Gresham)
Saturday Night UPDATE:
DraftDay Lineup Configurations
Cash Lineups: I hate to be so “all in” on Eli this week since he’s burned me in the past, but he seems to have found a groove with Beckham and Randle stepped up last week. His price also fits pretty well when trying to make a balanced lineup. If you are looking for the scrubs and studs route I’m happy to have Chase Daniel in my lineup for such a cheap price. He should easily get you to value at his price and paired with Rodgers and Le’Veon Bell, he won’t need to carry the team. My other cheap play is Tim Wright. I’m not in love with any tight ends this week and the ones I do like are mostly over 10k and don’t have the upside of a Gronk or healthy Graham. Wright should see plenty of work with Gronk most likely playing sparsely at best. I’ll also be going all in on the Ravens Defense. They are priced well and take on practice squader Connor Shaw without Josh Gordon, in a game they must have for a chance to get into the playoffs. Jonathan Stewart is still priced well even after four straight good games and he gets a great matchup against Atlanta in a winner take all match. DeAngelo doesn’t look like he will hurt his value this week. Charles Johnson is another money saver I feel good about against the Bears. He has averaged 7 targets and 3.8 receptions per game for 65.5 yards and a couple TDs over the last six games. He’s not an overly safe play, but the Bears defense, his usage and price make him worth a price saving pick.
Back To Top
Sample Draftkings Lineups (by Ian Goldsmith)
Draftkings Lineup Configurations
Well, we’re finally here in Week 17. It’s bittersweet, isn’t it? Yes, we have the playoffs, but the excitement of picking lineups week to week is just not going to be the same until next September. Fortunately, there are a lot of teams still vying for playoff spots and positioning, so we should go out with a bang. Pittsburgh/Cincinnati and Atlanta/Carolina are the two games that I want to target most here. If you can find a way to fit Odell Beckham Jr. in your lineup, do it. While he’s $9,500, he has scored at least 33 FP in four out of the last five weeks, which is…well, I don’t have words for that kind of performance. He gets to face Philadelphia this week, too….That being said, I’ve left him off of these two initial lineups, but that may very well change as the week progresses.
Andy Dalton, Andy Dalton, Andy Dalton. He scares me to death, but the matchup is too important for even Dalton to mess up. He scored over 30 FP against this same Pittsburgh team just three weeks ago and has a chance to do so again because they cannot stop the pass…at all. Pittsburgh just allowed Alex Smith to throw for over 300 yards. Yeah. Dalton will be going to Green all game long. CJ Anderson is a must play in a game that Denver needs to win to secure a first round bye. He destroyed Oakland a few weeks ago and will do so again here.
Here is where it gets a bit iffy. Jonathan Stewart has the premier RB matchup of the week. However, DeAngelo Williams practiced today and may play Sunday. DeAngeloooooooooooooooo!!!! (Shakes fists, vigorously!). Ugh. Carolina should feature Stewart if they want to win, but Riverboat Ron is a gambler. He’s in my lineup for now, but if Williams looks like he will get touches then he will be replaced.
At WR, Julio Jones is my #1 WR for the week (Well, maybe #2….Damn, Odell, you too good). At $8,300, he is actually a bit of a value. If his hip has fully healed, then he could be on track for another monster game, akin to what he did versus Arizona and Green Bay (when he averaged 41.9 FP). Edelman may seem a strange pick, but hear me out. Belichick usually plays his starters in Week 17, no matter what they have already clenched. Edelman has money on the line…literally. If Edelman gets 85 more yards, he guarantees himself a $500,000 bonus. Yeah….he’ll be ready to roll (as long as he’s over his concussion symptoms). Albert Wilson has quietly assumed the #2 WR role in KC and has put up at least 9.3 FP in all three games in that role. At only $3,800, he’s a no-brainer for me.
With injuries abounding in San Diego, Antonio Gates has assumed the role of savior once again. San Diego gets into the playoffs with a win, so you know Rivers will be looking to reliable #85. If Ryan Mathews is out, Branden Oliver is in a great spot for a nice game. He only needs 10 FP to hit value, a number he should have no problem hitting as he is used regularly in the passing game. Houston needs a win and help to get into the playoffs. They will be playing with heart and if I were Blake Bortles, I’d call in sick. He is going to be hit early and often. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see Houston get close to 10 sacks and a couple of turnovers. It’s going to be a massacre in Texas.
My early tournament lineup has several of the same pieces as the cash lineup, so I’ll skip the repetition. Martavis Bryant either gets you 5 FP or 25 FP. If that doesn’t scream tournament play only, I don’t know what does. He’s only $3,900, which is the lowest he’s been since Week 8, when he was still minimum salary. He legitimately has 7 to 8 X value potential this week and because his price is so low, he won’t kill your team if he only gives you those 5. In the same game, A.J. Green has the potential for a monster game. Yes, he hurt his arm last week, but do you think that will hold him back in a battle for the ARC North? No way. We’re talking about home field advantage and a potential first round bye. Green will play and should once again destroy the joke that is the Steelers’ secondary. He torched them for 42.4 FP three weeks ago. While that number will be hard to replicate, a game in the mid-20s to mid-30s is a very reasonable expectation.
At TE, Green’s teammate Jermaine Gresham fits in nicely. At only $3,200, he allows us to be able to afford Julio Jones and A.J. Green on the same team. He also won’t kill your team as he’s an essential part of the Bengals’ offense. He’ll guarantee you 6-8 FP and has 15-20 FP potential. In the FLEX spot, Matt Asiata slides in at only $5,000. He’s not a sexy play, but his penchant for scoring TDs is a thing of beauty. Minnesota should be able to move down the field in a game that Chicago has nothing to play for, which should lead to a few opportunities for Asiata to bang in a TD or two. At DST, Dallas is a risky, but high-reward option. They are the only DST under $3,000 that I am looking at playing. If they win, they still have a chance to have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They are also playing in an early game, so they’re guaranteed to play hard. They nearly shut out the high-flying Colts last week and get an inconsistent Washington team on Sunday. While there is no guarantee (hence the tournament pick), they have a chance for 10+ FP.
SUNDAY Morning UPDATE:
As Sunday has inched closer, a clearer picture of has started to emerge as to who is actually going to play. While I still think Edelman has reason to play ($500,000 bonus), I’m avoiding the New England game entirely. It’s just not worth the risk. There are three games you should be focusing on: Pittsburgh/Cincinnati, Green Bay/Detroit and Atlanta/Carolina. If you aren’t using players from those games, make sure you are using players from teams with something to play for (San Diego, Baltimore, Houston and Kansas City are all in must win situations as they vie for the 6th seed in the AFC).
I am not veering away from Andy Dalton, for the price, his upside this week is too good to pass up on in tournaments. A.J. Green will play, so pairing the two makes sense as they absolutely destroyed Pittsburgh in Week 14. At RB, I’m going with cheap players who have big upside. DeAngelo Williams’ presence for Carolina makes me a bit wary, but I think Ron Rivera would be stupid not to realize how well the Panthers have been playing with Jonathan Stewart as the focus back.
Julio Jones is still questionable, so swap him out if you must. I can’t see him sitting, however, in what is a must win game. He practiced on Friday, which is a good indication that he’ll be playing today against Carolina. The Panthers’ secondary has nobody that can stop him, even if he’s less than 100%. At DST, it’s frankly a toss-up between Baltimore and Houston. Both have superb matchups and are in must-win situations. Both defenses could score into the 20s.
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
If the Matchup Machine isn’t sortable for you, here are the same stats in Excel that are sortable: Week 17 Sortable Matchup Stats
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
|DEP||Running Backs||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Att||Yds||YPC||RuTD||Rec||Target||Yds||RecTD||Tot Yds||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
|DEP||Tight Ends||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
|Defense||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Sack||Int||Fum Rec||Pts Allow||FP/%DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
|New England Patriots||IND||$3,200||$8,650||$4,900||7||1.8||1||0.9||27.9||2.188||0.809||1.429|
|Green Bay Packers||@SEA||$2,900||$8,400||$4,700||5.3||2.6||0.4||0.4||23.8||1.828||0.631||1.128|
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.