Week 16 DFS Cheat Sheet: FantasyDraft and Yahoo! (UPDATED)
December 24, 2016 | Ian Goldsmith
Welcome to Week 16 of the 2016 The Fake Football FantasyDraft and Yahoo! DFS Cheat Sheet!
. With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Doug Shain, Chet Gresham, and Justin Bales we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FantasyDraft and Yahoo!, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news. And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our a sheet from last season to see what you get.
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Matt Forte is out this week, which sets Bilal Powell up for another big workload. Powell may have trouble rushing on the Patriots, but his team likely will be losing for much of the game and he will once again will be peppered with targets.
Tyler Eifert and A.J. Green are both out. Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd should both see plenty of work.
Ian Rapoport reports Lamar Miller is “iffy at best” to play. Alfred Blue and Akeem Hunt will split work. Blue should get the shot at the majority of the work.
Julio Jones has been taken off of the injury report and appears to be a full go against the Panthers. We don’t need to worry about him being a decoy.
Lamar Miller didn’t practice all week, but is still considered a game-time decision. If you need a late replacement option, I’d throw Miller in the flex spot and grab Eli Rogers who plays Sunday just in case.
Greg Olsen missed two days of practice with an elbow injury, but he practiced in full on Friday and was taken off the injury report. With Kelvin Benjamin not that healthy and not getting much work, Olsen should be the no. 1 target.
Jerry Jones says that the Cowboys won’t rest their starters. I tend to believe him and will be playing Ezekiel Elliot in DFS this week. Dak and Dez also should be played as usual.
Sammie Coates and Ladarius Green are both doubtful against the Ravens. They won’t play. Eli Rogers and Jesse James get a boost, but expect Antonio Brown to see a ton of work.
Melvin Gordon is out, which will give Kenneth Farrow the start in a great matchup in Cleveland. Farrow was a dud last week, but this matchup is too good not to try to push him into your lineups.
Jordan Reed won’t play. Vernon Davis becomes a top-10 tight end in Chicago.
Jeremy Hill will play after practicing Thursday and Friday. He’ll have a tough matchup in Houston.
Theo Riddick is doubtful to play against Dallas, so Dwayne Washington will get the start. His upside is low in a game that pits two of the slowest offenses in the league against each other.
Brandon Marshall is questionable and not nearly 100 percent. He’ll play, but Robby Anderson is ahead of him at the moment.
Adrian Peterson is out and Jerick McKinnon will be the lead back against the Packers. McKinnon has some PPR appeal in a game the Vikings should trail, but his upside is low.
Aaron Rodgers has been taken off the injury report. He gets a tough matchup, but appears to be healthy after getting a full week of practice. Fire him up as usual.
James Starks is out, but hadn’t been playing much after Ty Montgomery took over the lead role. Montgomery will start and is a good play, but his upside is limited by the tough Vikings defense.
Randall Cobb is questionable, but did get limited practices in all week. He’ll play, but hasn’t been doing enough to give you much confidence in a tough matchup.
Steve Smith is listed as questionable, but got a full practice in on Friday and will play in a critical game for the Ravens chances to get into the playoffs.
A.J. Derby and Virgil Green are out with concussions. Jeff Heuerman will be the only tight end, but in a tough matchup.
Stefon Diggs practiced in full on Friday and will be able to play in a nice matchup against the Packers weak secondary, but he does have a history of lower output when on the injury report.
Sample FantasyDraft Lineups
GPP 1 (Updated)
FantasyDraft Lineup Configurations
Let this be your weekly reminder that we are not trying to come in first place in a cash game, we are merely trying to finish in the top half of our tournaments. This means that we are going to worry a lot more about our floor than our ceiling. There are a lot of different directions we can go with our QB this weekend but I decided to go with the guy who has been consistent in just about every start, home or away, all season. Andrew Luck is about as good a bet as anyone to get you 250 yards and 2 TD. Of course I’d love a large amount of production than that but if I can get that as a floor then my cash game lineup is in good shape. I am surrounding him with RB that get a lot of carries for their team, real workhorses in Stewart, Howard, Ajayi, and McCoy. Stewart and Ajayi may be a little boring but they don’t have any competition for meaningful touches and give me the floor that I’m looking for from my RB. I had a very similar thought with my WR and went with Britt and Thomas for that high floor they both see from getting a lot of targets. Both guys are going to see 8+ targets in matchups that I think both can excel in. Cameron Brate isn’t a world beater at TE but he’s consistent and significantly cheaper than other TE1 type players (and make no mistake about it, Brate is a TE1). Seattle has one of the best matchups on the slate and they are monsters at home. I’m not messing around with my cash game defense.
As I’ve been doing recently, I decided to narrow down the field of potential plays to those guys that I highlighted on this week’s Cheat Sheet. This allowed me to mix and match players that I felt strongly about while not deviating too much from what lead me to put those players on the sheet in the first place.
The more I think about configuring GPP lineups, the more I realize it’s about having a core group of players and then finding different iterations of players at the remaining positions. You’ll see that I didn’t always include every one of my staple plays but most of them show up in most of my lineups. By using them consistently and then shifting the supporting cast, I’m increasing my potential to hit a big score if my core guys go off. My staple plays this week are Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, TY Hilton, LeSean Mccoy, Todd Gurley, Jay Ajayi, and Jordan Howard.
There is so much to like at QB this weekend that I thought it would be irresponsible to limit myself to just four lineups. Even with the six that I am providing, there’s still no Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, or Matt Barkley. At some point we have to put our foot down and say “these are my guys and I’m going to have to stick to that.” These six are where my line is drawn in Week 16. As you’ll see, I mixed and matched a little more than normal this weekend but that’s because there were some lineups where I just couldn’t afford to fit Jordy, Hilton, Julio, and LeSean McCoy. When push came to shove I dumped the priciest piece (McCoy) in order to allow me to pay up at two positions. With some value at RB in the form of Gurley, Ajayi, and Howard, I felt that I could make these moves and still be ok. It’s situations like these where you really have to be flexible with your players and not confine yourself to only one or two guys that you HAVE to have. If you weaken yourself in three places just to fit in one player, that’s a lot of eggs to put into one basket. Diversify the portfolio whenever you can.
Sample Yahoo! Lineups
Saturday-Monday GPP (Updated)
Saturday (Main Slate) 50/50 (Updated)
Saturday-Sunday GPP (Updated)
Yahoo! Lineup Configurations
I started this game with a three man stack of the Rams, including Jared Goff, Todd Gurley, and Kenny Britt. They get an elite matchup against the 49ers, and they likely won’t be very highly owned (well, Gurley might be, but we won’t know until the Thursday Fantasy Aces data hits). I then added Jermaine Gresham, who continues to be a bit underpriced for his recent production. Allen Robinson is also a high upside option for a low price tag, and he’s seeing plenty of targets on a weekly basis and gets a good matchup this week. That allowed me to spend up on Michael Thomas, who is playing in a game with an extremely high over/under. Ezekiel Elliott has been an elite fantasy option this season, and he gets a great matchup against the Lions this week. I then added Devonta Freeman, who is coming off a huge game, and he has great upside. Last, the Chargers’ defense fit into the lineup, and they get an elite matchup against the Browns.
Saturday (Main Slate) CASH
This lineup began with a stack of LeGarrette Blount and the Patriots’ defense. They are huge favorites, and should be running the clock out, while it’s unlikely they will be giving up many points. I then added a three man stack of Washington players, including Kirk Cousins, Jamison Crowder, and Pierre Garcon. They have been throwing the ball a ton this season, and they get a great matchup against the Bears this week. I used Bilal Powell, who will be playing a ton of passing down snaps, as the Jets will likely be losing from the start to the end of this game. Jermaine Gresham continues to be underpriced, and he’s a safe tight end this week. Cameron Meredith is also seeing a ton of targets for the Bears, while Latavius Murray has been a big part of the Raiders’ offense, and gets an elite matchup against the Colts.
Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, and Brandin Cooks were the first three entered into this lineup, and they have elite upside in a solid matchup. I then added DeAndre Hopkins, who will benefit from a new quarterback in Houston. I used two high upside running backs, who get tough matchups this week in Bilal Powell and Ty Montgomery. Cameron Brate is a tight end with quite a bit of upside, as he’s playing in a high powered offense, and gets a matchup in a game that will be high scoring. Demaryius Thomas is another player in a game projected to be low scoring, but he has been a big part of the Broncos’ offense, and he comes with good upside. Last, I used the Dolphins’ defense, and they have been on fire recently.
Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters. As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience. To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. Thanks, and have fun!!
Note: Optimizer links are live!
NOTES: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include.
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||FanDraf||Yahoo||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Defense Opp FanDraf Yahoo Off Points Sack Int Fum Rec DefTD RetTD FPPG
New England Patriots HOU $7,800 $20 16.9 2 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 8.4
Atlanta Falcons SEA $5,000 $16 21.6 2.6 0.8 0.4 0 0 6.2
Pittsburgh Steelers @KC $5,600 $13 22.2 2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 4.8
Dallas Cowboys GB $5,200 $12 27.0 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
Kansas City Chiefs PIT $6,700 $19 24.4 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0 3.9
Green Bay Packers @DAL $5,500 $13 26.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 0 0 3.2
Seattle Seahawks @ATL $5,900 $16 31.9 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 2.6
Houston Texans @NE $4,600 $10 27.2 1.5 0.1 0.6 0 0 2.5
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART
You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|