Week 16 DFS Cheat Sheet: FanDuel and DraftKings (UPDATED) December 24, 2016  |  Ian Goldsmith


Welcome to Week 16 of the 2016 The Fake Football FanDuel and DraftKings DFS Cheat Sheet!

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With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Ian Goldsmith and Chet Gresham, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel and Draftkings, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.

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PLUS! Ian Goldsmith’s DFS Optimizer will be added to the sheets this season! It will go LIVE every Friday!

 

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Contents

 

1. FanDuel Lineups and Configurations

2. DraftKings Lineups and Configurations

3. Week 16 NFL Odds

4. Week 16 NFL Matchup Statistics

5. DFS Scoring

Cheat Sheet

 

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Injury Report:

Matt Forte is out this week, which sets Bilal Powell up for another big workload. Powell may have trouble rushing on the Patriots, but his team likely will be losing for much of the game and he will once again will be peppered with targets.

Tyler Eifert and A.J. Green are both out. Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd should both see plenty of work.

Ian Rapoport reports Lamar Miller is “iffy at best” to play. Alfred Blue and Akeem Hunt will split work. Blue should get the shot at the majority of the work.

Julio Jones has been taken off of the injury report and appears to be a full go against the Panthers. We don’t need to worry about him being a decoy.

Lamar Miller didn’t practice all week, but is still considered a game-time decision. If you need a late replacement option, I’d throw Miller in the flex spot and grab Eli Rogers who plays Sunday just in case.

Greg Olsen missed two days of practice with an elbow injury, but he practiced in full on Friday and was taken off the injury report. With Kelvin Benjamin not that healthy and not getting much work, Olsen should be the no. 1 target.

Jerry Jones says that the Cowboys won’t rest their starters. I tend to believe him and will be playing Ezekiel Elliot in DFS this week. Dak and Dez also should be played as usual.

Sammie Coates and Ladarius Green are both doubtful against the Ravens. They won’t play. Eli Rogers and Jesse James get a boost, but expect Antonio Brown to see a ton of work.

Melvin Gordon is out, which will give Kenneth Farrow the start in a great matchup in Cleveland. Farrow was a dud last week, but this matchup is too good not to try to push him into your lineups.

Jordan Reed won’t play. Vernon Davis becomes a top-10 tight end in Chicago.

Jeremy Hill will play after practicing Thursday and Friday. He’ll have a tough matchup in Houston.

Theo Riddick is doubtful to play against Dallas, so Dwayne Washington will get the start. His upside is low in a game that pits two of the slowest offenses in the league against each other.

Brandon Marshall is questionable and not nearly 100 percent. He’ll play, but Robby Anderson is ahead of him at the moment.

Adrian Peterson is out and Jerick McKinnon will be the lead back against the Packers. McKinnon has some PPR appeal in a game the Vikings should trail, but his upside is low.

Aaron Rodgers has been taken off the injury report. He gets a tough matchup, but appears to be healthy after getting a full week of practice. Fire him up as usual.

James Starks is out, but hadn’t been playing much after Ty Montgomery took over the lead role. Montgomery will start and is a good play, but his upside is limited by the tough Vikings defense.

Randall Cobb is questionable, but did get limited practices in all week. He’ll play, but hasn’t been doing enough to give you much confidence in a tough matchup.

Steve Smith is listed as questionable, but got a full practice in on Friday and will play in a critical game for the Ravens chances to get into the playoffs.

A.J. Derby and Virgil Green are out with concussions. Jeff Heuerman will be the only tight end, but in a tough matchup.

Stefon Diggs practiced in full on Friday and will be able to play in a nice matchup against the Packers weak secondary, but he does have a history of lower output when on the injury report.

 


 

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Sample FanDuel Lineups (Saturday Only: Main Slate)

FD Cash

FD GPP

FanDuel Lineup Configurations

Note: The main slate on both FanDuel and DraftKings is on Saturday, so these lineups are focusing only on that day’s games.

CASH

I didn’t imagine paying up all the way for Brady at QB, but the way the other positions have worked themselves out, I just happened to have enough salary cap left over to fit him onto the team. While I could go on and on why he’s a good play, I’m not going to. It’s Brady, and he’s playing the Jets at home. Enough said. With Bell and Zeke playing on Sunday and Monday, respectively, and David Johnson playing at the Seahawks, I’m forced to look cheaper at the RB position this week in cash games on the main slate. Jonathan Stewart is a must for me against a Falcons team that has been a sieve against the RB position all season. At only $6,400, he’s a lock for me. I’ve plugged in DeMarco Murray as well, who has been one of the more consistent backs all season and torched the Jags for a 123/1TD line a few weeks ago.

At WR, I’m going with a trio of target-heavy players in Jordy Nelson, TY Hilton, and Robby Anderson, who has become a huge favorite of Jets QB Bryce Petty. Petty should have a hard go of it, but he should be slinging it all day long, which should give Robby plenty of chances. At TE, Kyle Rudolph is a pretty easy pick. He’s by far Sam Bradford’s favorite target and was relevant even in Bradford’s disastrous Week 15. At kicker, I always plug in the player who is playing the Jaguars, who have easily given up the most points at the position this season, partly due to their decent red zone defense. This week, that means using Succop. At D, the Packers are hard to pass up at only $4,600. They have been incredible at home all season, and have scored 9,19,8, and 10 in their past four games. Minnesota is reeling; without a huge game from Peterson, the Packers’ D should rule.

GPP (Sunday-Monday)

This lineup hinges on the availability of Julio Jones. I’m happy to take a chance on him in tournaments if he starts as he went for 300 yards in the first matchup against the Panthers, but will he suit up? I’m not sure. We’ll get a better idea in the next day or two. At RB, Gurley is an easy fill-in against the 49ers. The Niners are giving up nearly 5 standard points against the position more than the next defense. Yikes. Despite the amazing matchup, Gurley is a tournament play only as his price is way too high given his performances this season. $7.900? That’s nuts. Still, he has a spot in GPPs. I’m paired him with LeSean McCoy, who’s been absolute fire of late (all season, really). Miami held the Buffalo run game in check in their first matchup, but that shouldn’t happen this week.

Joining Julio are Cameron Meredith and Tyler Lockett, both of whom have been on fire and get excellent matchups. With Alshon Jeffery getting the Josh Norman treatment, Barkley should be slinging to Meredith all day long. Similarly, Doug Baldwin should get the Patrick Peterson treatment (if Peterson plays), which should leave Lockett to expose a Cardinals’ secondary that was just shredded by Brandin Cooks and Co. Rudolph, Succop, and the Pack round out the lineup.

UPDATE

No changes to any of the lineups this week; I like both how they are. It looks like Julio will play, so I’m definitely keen on playing him in GPPs.

 

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Sample DraftKings Lineups (Saturday Only: Main Slate)

DK Cash

DK GPP

DraftKings Lineup Configurations

Note: The main slate on both FanDuel and DraftKings is on Saturday, so these lineups are focusing only on that day’s games.

CASH

I’ll just touch on the players that aren’t discussed in the FanDuel lineups above, so that leaves Pierre Garcon, Michael Crabtree, and Cameron Brate. Averaging roughly 6/75 over the past seven weeks, Garcon has established himself as one of Cousins’ favorite targets, if not the favorite. I love the sub-$5K price on him this week. I’m not as confident in Crabtree, though the matchup is solid against the Colts. If you don’t feel comfortable using him, pay up a bit to grab Jordy Nelson and move from Brady to a guy like Andrew Luck. Brate has been one of the best TEs in the league this season; he is currently the #5 overall TE for the year, which is, frankly, incredible. Not many people saw this coming before the season started.

GPP

Jordan Howard and Matt Ryan make appearances here. Howard has been on fire and Washington has been terrible against the RB position all season, allowing more than 130 yards to Jonathan Stewart last week. Howard is, as my coworker Doug Shain says, David Johnson Jr. He does a little bit of everything on the field, which is showcased in 99+ rushing/receiving yards in each of his past 7 games. Yowzas, that’s a spicy Howard. Ryan has been one of the most consistent QBs all season and deserves to be discussed for the MVP award, in both fantasy and the real world. The Panthers have been better of late, so I’m using Ryan in tournaments only. Still, this is a guy who threw for 503 yards and 4TDs against Carolina earlier this year. While he won’t replicate those numbers, I think 350/3 could be within reach.

UPDATE

No changes to any of the lineups this week; I like both how they are. It looks like Julio will play, so I’m definitely keen on playing him in GPPs.

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Optimizers

Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters.

As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience.

To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. There are instructions on the first sheet. Thanks, and have fun!!

Notes: Links are live!

DraftKings Optimizer

FanDuel Optimizer

Optimizer Instructions!

Optimized Lineups

DraftKings MAIN SLATE (SATURDAY)

DraftKings SATURDAY-MONDAY

FanDuel MAIN SLATE (SATURDAY)

FanDuel SATURDAY-MONDAY

NOTE: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include.

 


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Odds

A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring. Note: This week’s odds will be up shortly.

TeamOpponentLineMoneylineOver/UnderImplied Points
NEPvs. HOU-15-130044.529.75
DALvs. GBP-4.5-21052.528.5
ATLvs. SEA-5-22551.528.25
GBP@ DAL4.518052.524
SEA@ ATL519551.523.25
KCCvs. PIT-1.5-1274422.75
PIT@ KCC1.51074421.25
HOU@ NEP1587544.514.75

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MATCHUP MACHINE

 

2016 Stats

 

Excel: Week 16 Matchup Charts DKINGS-FANDUEL 2016 Stats

 

Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)

Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.

QuarterbacksTmOppDKFDCom%YPAttYPGTD/GInt/GRuAttYPRuTDFPPGFO
Russell WilsonSEA@ATL$6,900$8,20064.50%6.9280.91.90.83.43.90.0619.124
Dak PrescottDALGB$6,000$7,70064.70%8.1287.11.91.12.43.10.0617.720
Aaron RodgersGB@DAL$8,200$8,80067.40%6.9273.51.60.62.43.60.0616.519
Brock OsweilerHOU@NE$5,000$7,00061.90%6.8251.81.30.82.35.10.1315.622
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT@KC$6,500$8,10058.50%6.9257.51.41.13.64.80.0615.54
Alex SmithKCPIT$5,400$6,80064.50%7256.61.30.823.70.0614.613
Matt RyanATLSEA$7,000$8,30062.0%7.3242.810.73.22.80.1914.411
Tom BradyNEHOU$7,600$8,60061.10%6.62141.30.72.54.70.19149

Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)

Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.

DEPRunning BacksTmOppDKFDR/GRuY/GYPCRuTD/GRe/GReY/GReTD/GT/GTotYdFPPGFP/lookTotTDFO
RB1Spencer WareKCPIT$5,200$6,90020.890.74.40.95.149.20.316.9139.920.70.751.29
RB2Charcandrick WestKCPIT$3,400$5,20020.890.74.40.95.149.20.316.9139.920.70.751.29
RB1Thomas RawlsSEA@ATL$6,900$7,50018.981.14.30.86.854.40.388.8135.420.50.741.228
RB2Alex CollinsSEA@ATL$3,500$5,50018.981.14.30.86.854.40.388.8135.420.50.741.228
RB1Le'Veon BellPIT@KC$10,500$9,90023.3103.24.40.64.333.20.316.7136.418.30.610.923
RB1LeGarrette BlountNEHOU$5,800$7,30021.481.43.80.64.140.30.255.4121.817.70.660.917
RB2Dion LewisNEHOU$3,900$5,40021.481.43.80.64.140.30.255.4121.817.70.660.917
RB1Ezekiel ElliottDALGB$8,500$8,50020.684.34.10.64.636.90.066.1121.216.40.620.712
RB1Devonta FreemanATLSEA$5,900$7,60023.8813.40.84.33806.611915.90.520.82
RB2Tevin ColemanATLSEA$4,500$5,90023.8813.40.84.33806.611915.90.520.82
RB1Ty MontgomeryGB@DAL$5,300$6,00017.871.640.54.934.50.136.3106.114.80.610.68
RB2Christine MichaelGB@DAL$4,300$5,30017.871.640.54.934.50.136.3106.114.80.610.68
RB1Lamar MillerHOU@NE$5,600$7,00020.272.83.60.36.450.50.198123.314.50.510.45
RB2Alfred BlueHOU@NE$3,300$5,20020.272.83.60.36.450.50.198123.314.50.510.45

Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)

Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.

DEPWide ReceiversTmOppDKFDRec/GReYd/GReYd/TarTD/GT/GCom. %FPPGFO
WR1Dez BryantDALGB$6,600$7,60013.2189.18.81.621.661.2%28.9420
WR2Cole BeasleyDALGB$5,000$6,10013.2189.18.81.621.661.2%28.9420
WR3Terrance WilliamsDALGB$3,100$4,50013.2189.18.81.621.661.2%28.9420
WR1Doug BaldwinSEA@ATL$8,100$7,90013.9162.87.21.122.661.80%23.9424
WR2Jermaine KearseSEA@ATL$3,300$4,90013.9162.87.21.122.661.80%23.9424
WR1Antonio BrownPIT@KC$9,600$8,80013.6177.47.40.924.156.60%22.914
WR2Eli RogersPIT@KC$3,900$5,00013.6177.47.40.924.156.60%22.914
WR3Sammie CoatesPIT@KC$3,000$4,50013.6177.47.40.924.156.60%22.914
WR1Julio JonesATLSEA$8,400$8,30012.6161.47.90.820.461.7%22.0611
WR3Taylor GabrielATLSEA$4,400$5,50012.6161.47.90.820.461.7%22.0611
WR2Mohamed SanuATLSEA$4,000$5,40012.6161.47.90.820.461.70%22.0611
WR1Jordy NelsonGB@DAL$7,400$8,10014.2164.17.10.923.161.50%21.3619
WR2DaVante AdamsGB@DAL$7,000$7,40014.2164.17.10.923.161.50%21.3619
WR3Randall CobbGB@DAL$5,700$6,50014.2164.17.10.923.161.50%21.3619
WR1DeAndre HopkinsHOU@NE$5,800$7,10011.9156.37.20.921.655.20%20.6822
WR2Will FullerHOU@NE$3,600$5,00011.9156.37.20.921.655.20%20.6822
WR1Julian EdelmanNEHOU$6,800$7,00011.6137.86.80.820.356.90%19.069
WR2Malcolm MitchellNEHOU$4,700$5,60011.6137.86.80.820.356.90%19.069
WR3Chris HoganNEHOU$3,900$5,20011.6137.86.80.820.356.90%19.069
WR2Tyreek HillKCPIT$5,500$6,60013.8152.870.621.863.20%1913
WR1Jeremy MaclinKCPIT$4,300$5,50013.8152.870.621.863.20%1913
WR3Chris ConleyKCPIT$3,000$4,50013.8152.870.621.863.20%1913

Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)

Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.

Tight EndsTmOppDKFDRec/GReYd/GReYd/TaT/GTD/GFPPGFO
Travis KelceKCPIT$6,100$7,1004.956.37.67.40.37.69
Jimmy GrahamSEA@ATL$4,900$6,8005.360.98.67.10.59.315
Martellus BennettNEHOU$4,000$5,9004.235.86.65.50.24.71
Ladarius GreenPIT@KC$3,800$5,7003.945.15.68.10.25.613
Jared CookGB@DAL$3,900$5,4007.474.99.57.90.510.530
C.J. FiedorowiczHOU@NE$3,600$5,2004.644.37.16.30.25.718
Jason WittenDALGB$3,500$4,9005.462.387.80.386
Austin HooperATLSEA$2,900$4,5004.653.66.38.60.47.517

Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)

Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.

DefenseOppDKFDOff PointsSackIntFum RecDefTDRetTDFPPG
New England PatriotsHOU$4,000$5,10017210.50.10.18.4
Atlanta FalconsSEA$2,600$4,300222.60.80.4006.2
Pittsburgh Steelers@KC$2,900$4,5002220.50.60.104.8
Dallas CowboysGB$2,700$4,500272.20.50.60.10.14.4
Kansas City ChiefsPIT$3,400$4,800241.30.90.20.103.9
Green Bay Packers@DAL$2,800$4,300261.80.40.6003.2
Seattle Seahawks@ATL$3,000$4,700322.30.40.30.102.6
Houston Texans@NE$2,300$4,200271.50.10.6002.5

Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers (2016 Stats)

Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.

KickersTmOppFDPAT0-1920-2930-3940-4950+FPPG
Dan BaileyDALGB$4,8002.3100.560.380.442.318
Stephen GostkowskiNEHOU$4,9002.190.130.380.50.382.197.25
Chris BoswellPIT@KC$4,5001.8800.50.50.381.886.98
Steven HauschkaSEA@ATL$4,8002.190.060.250.310.632.196.88
Cairo SantosKCPIT$4,6001.8100.50.630.441.816.81
Mason CrosbyGB@DAL$4,7001.6900.440.880.191.696.5
Nick NovakHOU@NE$4,5001.4400.380.440.381.445.63
Matt BryantATLSEA$5,2001.8100.250.440.441.815.5

 

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART

You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.

RkTMRk vs. #1 WRPa/GYd/GRk vs. #2 WRPa/GYd/GRk vs. Other WRPa/GYd/GRk vs. TEPa/GYd/GRk vs. RBPa/GYd/G
3NYG18.757.656.953.777.261.8258.469.347.936.8
9HOU2210.183.325.435.3196.34016.735.628644.6
11SEA11974.6285.851.5105.643176.84636.233.9
13PIT328.984.536.940.626.236.798.159.5216.651.2
14MIA49.380.34635.8306.652.3228.159.9106.936.6
20GB278.375.9316.556.4236.350.967.563.3116.538.2
23OAK68.266.1226.160.4207.853.2237.366.8224.935
32DET258.567.3195.638.7326.259297.260.129746.5

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2016 Cheat Sheets

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