Week 15 DFS Cheat Sheet (UPDATED)
December 13, 2014 | Chet
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Welcome to Week 15 of The Fake Football DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Guru Rich Hribar, Ian Goldsmith and myself, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, and Draftday, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those four. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99), Season (12.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our Week 4 Cheat Sheet to see what you get.
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Sample FanDuel Lineups(by Rich Hribar)
FanDuel Lineup Configurations
Thursday Night/Cash Games Lineups
There’s nobody in play this Thursday except either team defense, preferably the Rams. The Cardinals have scored a touchdown on just four of their past 39 drives and St. Louis has allowed a touchdown on just three of their opponents past 48 drives and any score on just five of those possessions. Avoid all skill players here.
Sanchez is my favorite cash game quarterback this week because I really want to pay for two elite backs if possible. I’m looking to have Forte and Bell do all my heavy lifting on this team, but I also can fit in Julio if he goes. I prefer Stills to Colston because he has more clout and a similar ceiling and Wilson is cheap enough to be both a cash game and tourney option. I believe in Walker again this week despite last week’s let down.
For tourney play, there are quite a few stacking plays this week that will have decent ownership. At the higher priced end, I like a Colts stack of Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton. Hilton has been strong all season and has torched Houston so far in his career. At running back, I like Forte in cash or GPP’s and he’s a touch cheaper than Le’Veon Bell. I’m digging deep here with Ivory, but the matchup couldn’t be any softer and we know the Jets want to run as much possible. He has 11 carries inside the 5-yard line this season to Chris Johnson’s one, so he has the highest probability of scoring out the duo. To go with Hilton, Marquess Wilson will have heavy ownership, but a minimum pricing, he’s worth owning still. With Cam Newton suffering his unfortunate accident, Benjamin will likely have low ownership and already posted 18 points with Derek Anderson versus this same Bucs secondary.
In the mid priced tier, Sanchez and Maclin make a fine pair and this team has also added Gronk to the fold. The rest of the pieces have already been mentioned outside of Bryant, who has the Bradley Fetcher factor going for him this week.
On the lower end of stacking, if you want to chase Manziel and Gordon, you can fit a lot around them. Keeping Forte, I’m pairing him with McCoy to make as high of a ceiling backfield as you almost possibly can this week. Taking swings at receiver with Stills and Jackson, who I really like this week, there’s some serious potential firepower here if the Cleveland pair can contribute high end proudiction.
Sunday Early Only
I’m making two early lineups today for those who want to go dirt cheap and use Derek Anderson and those who want to play it safer and more balanced. While Anderson should find his way to value and offers a ton of cap relief, he also doesn’t possess much of a ceiling. On that team, I’m going with a more volatile approach, but going with big time safety at running back. Le’Veon Bell has topped 200 yards from scrimmage in three straight games and Jamaal Charles has scored in eight consecutive games. Both have been top shelf and have soft matchups. Since this team is embracing some variance, I’m placing another anchor on it with Gronk, who has scored nine or more points in four of the five games he didn’t even register a touchdown in. Harry Douglas will be in a lot f my cash game lineups today as a safe floor player, but expecting a touchdown is probably similar to putting a date Rachel McAdams on my Christmas list. Vincent Jackson has been performing on par with Mike Evans in nearly every capacity except for being able to find the end zone, so I’m looking for a bit of positive regression to come into play here the final few weeks. I really feel like today Donte Moncrief will be a huge asset. T.Y. Hilton has owned the Texans thus far in his career and they know that as well. Reggie Wayne is still limited and Indy should struggle generating a consistent ground game, meaning Moncrief should have the opportunity to make plays today. Round this out with Justin Tucker and the Giants, my favorite K/DST plays of the day.
It’s almost kind of hilarious to say Eli Manning is the “safer” option, but when you’re facing Washington, a team just giving away touchdown passes (including four to Manning in week 4); you feel a little better about his floor. At running back, Arian Foster has dominated touches in every game he’s played and scored in seven straight. He dominates the Colts and they’ve struggled versus the run. While I don’t think you can expect another 90-yard touchdown run, Latavius Murray should find volume and success facing a Chiefs defense that has allowed 143.3 rushing yards per game to opposing backs over the past seven weeks. Murray played 81 percent of the snaps last week, so volume should make up for any decrease in that magical efficiency a few weeks ago. I’ll likely have a piece of the phenomenal Pittsburgh pair in every cash game this week, so here’s where I’m sliding Antonio Brown. Pairing him up with boring Douglas again and Marqise Lee in a soft play versus a Baltimore team that should force a pass heavy script should give this receiver unit a chance for 40 targets, although finding the end zone is a concern with the ancillary guys. Greg Olsen is a safety net at tight end and final pieces here are Cairo Santos and Giants D.
Sample DraftDay Lineups (by Chet Gresham)
DraftDay Lineup Configurations
Cash Lineups: My core players this wee will be the Raven’s D, Harry Douglas, Chris Johnson and Latavius Murray. These four are cheap enough with good upside to help you fill out the rest of your lineup with some mid to top picks to add to them. The Ravens are at home against the Jags and are extremely cheap. It’s really tough for me to play anyone besides them this week. Douglas should get the start with Julio Jones most likely sitting out. If Jones does go I still think he will be hurting enough to play Douglas, but it does get riskier. I very much dislike Chris Johnson, but it’s pretty tough to not give him a shot this week against his old team which happens to be the Titans who allow 132 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs. Of course he has to deal with Chris Ivory, who is a better RB at this point, but the revenge factor is somewhat important in this one. Johnson seems to only try on special occasions and really this is about as special as it can get for CJnoK. He’s had 16 and 17 rushing attempts the last two weeks, so at least he’s getting work and the Jets don’t want Geno Smith throwing the ball, so I think at his price he is safe. And really that goes for Chris Ivory as well, but I think CJ gets more receiving opportunities and at Draft Day that’s important. And finally, Latavius Murray is just insanely cheap with a ton of upside against KC which gives up the most rushing yards per carry.
Quarterbacks this week are tough. Luck feels like the safest play while Peyton Manning should rebound against the Chargers and has seen his price drop. I really like Stafford and Roethlisberger and Sanchez as well. Nobody feels like a must play this week. Johnny Manziel and Derek Anderson are so cheap that it also makes them fine plays and I could see throwing them into the mix. I probably will save them for tourney plays, but they are both cheap enough that they should make value for 50/50s as well.
Sample Draftkings Lineups (by Ian Goldsmith)
Draftkings Lineup Configurations
This is not a game that screams “Fantasy Gold Mine”, but there are a couple of plays that warrant looks. The most obvious of these is the St. Louis Rams’ DST, which has been simply phenomenal the past two weeks. In shutouts against Oakland and Washington, the Rams’ DST has scored 32 and 27 FP, respectively. But their dominance didn’t come overnight. On the contrary, since Week 9 they gave given up more than 10 points just twice. In those six games, they have scored at least 10 DK FP five times. That one came in Arizona. However, Arizona has been further decimated by injury since that game and pose no real threat on offense, especially without Andre Ellington. The Rams are a solid choice one again at home. On the offensive side of the ball, Jared Cook is worth considering. While he may not score 2 TDs like he did last week, he’ll be looked to often against a Cardinals’ defense that can stop the run, but is once again abysmal versus opposing TEs.
You can obviously use Johnny Manziel at QB if you want for your tournaments. However, his ownership will be large and for $500 cheaper you can have Jake Locker, who I am very excited about in this matchup. The Jets have a way of making almost every opposing QB on the road look like Johnny Unitas. I’m not afraid of starting him. Locker has a penchant for going off once or twice per year for a huge game. I say this is his week. Not that past performance means a hill of beans, but he did throw for 149 and 3 TDs at home against the Jets last season, scoring nearly 20FP in the process.
Le’Veon Bell, fresh off three monster games, gets perhaps the easiest opponent he’s seen all season. Atlanta cannot stop the run. They will be helpless against him. Similarly, Jamaal Charles should have no problems at home against Oakland. There was some voodoo in their last matchup, but that was a Thursday matchup and he still managed 22.2 FP. Still, be cautious as he had swelling in his knee after the Cardinals’ game and looks questionable. To afford these backs, I’ve gone uber cheap on WRs. Marqise Lee looks to becoming a favorite again in Jacksonville and gets a nice matchup against Baltimore. Marquess Wilson (Hey, look! Two WRs with names that begin with Marq – how ‘bout that?!) will step in and start for Brandon Marshall. For minimum salary, he’s worth a shot with Mr. Jay Sometimes-Lives-Up-To-His-Contract Cutler throwing the ball.
You’ll notice Bell here once more. The combination of his skills and this matchup are just too good to be ignored. Coupled with him at RB is Chris Johnson. You may think it an odd pick at first for a cash lineup, but hear me out. He’s been given at least 16 carries in the past two games, usually has a couple of grabs in the passing game and faces a Tennessee team that has given up over 160 yards rushing per game since week 8. In fact, as you’ll see in the Sunday tournament lineup, pairing CJ?K and his teammate Chris Ivory could pay off in a big way.
With Atlanta still, amazingly, in first place in the NFC South, Matt Ryan is starting to look like a real QB again. He gets an excellent matchup against the Steelers’ pass defense that was just torched by Andy Dalton. If Julio Jones is healthy, then he could have another 200+ yard game. Edelman is back to being Brady’s go-to WR and faces a Miami team, against whom he went for 6/95 on opening day. T.Y. Hilton has been Luck’s favorite all season. With Reggie Wayne potentially out, he will see increased targets against a Texans team that he went off against in Week 6 for 223 yards and a TD. Greg Olsen is almost a must at his price in cash games. With Newton’s car accident, I’d assume Derek Anderson will be using him all game long for short, safe passes. With Anderson at the helm in Week 1, Olsen caught 8 for 83 and a TD against this same Bucs’ team. Don’t shy away just because the former Oregon State player will likely be starting at QB.
The Eli to OBJ connection is one I’m keen on playing in tournaments this weekend. With a lot of people focused on Johnny Football, I think Eli will have relatively low ownership in a fantastic matchup against Washington. Earlier this season, Eli destroyed them for 300 yards and 5 TDs (one on the ground). That was pre-OBJ as well. In that first matchup, Eli threw three of his TDs to Larry Donnell, who has a chance for another solid game. If you want to use him, sub him in for Gates and you’ll have $700 to play with.
As I stated before, the Jets have a marvelous matchup for their forte: the running game. I’m plugging in Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson here as both legitimately have a shot at 100 yards games. Their combined cost is only $7,800, which means that they need only 23 FP to hit value. I don’t know if many will go with this strategy this week, but they’ve combined for over 30 carries in each of the past two weeks, a trend that should continue Sunday.
I love pairing Hilton and Moncrief here. Reggie Wayne is likely out, which means that the other two wideouts will have a chance for huge games against a weak Houston secondary. If they can get even close to their monster 49.2 FP combined output from two weeks ago, then you should be looking pretty.
For DST, I’ve once again looked to the Giants. Washington is in disarray; they look lost on the field, no matter who is playing QB. While division games can be dicey, the Giants certainly have a chance to create multiple turnovers and gather a few sacks in the process.
Updated Sunday Tournament Lineup
Julio??? Yes or no? Keep a keen eye on the injury news this morning. If Julio Jones is inactive, then Harry Douglas gets a huge bump. At only $4,200, he would represent perhaps the best value of the week. The new tournament lineup assumes that he is starting, so make sure about his starting status. I’m pairing him with Matt Ryan, who should have a huge game against Pittsburgh whether Julio is playing or not. Pittsburgh’s secondary is very beatable at the moment and Atlanta will have to try and keep up with Le’Veon, Antonio and Big Ben. This game has the chance of being the highest scoring of the week (at 55.5, it has the highest O/U of the week) and I want a big slice of it. While Bell’s price has climbed, he is nearly a must play against the worst RB defense in the NFL.
I’ve kept with my duo of Jets’ RBs. Ivory and CJ?K should combine for a big game. Tennessee is being gashed by opposing RBs and the two Chrises should have no problem ripping them apart. Using both ensures you’ll capture whichever one goes off. Moncrief has a great chance for a big game against Houston, even if Reggie Wayne plays. If you want a slightly safer option, look to Marqise Lee for $3,600. If you really want to punt the WR position, play Marquess Wilson for only $3,000.
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
If the Matchup Machine isn’t sortable for you, here are the same stats in Excel that are sortable: Week 15 Sortable Matchup Stats
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
|DEP||Running Backs||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Att||Yds||YPC||RuTD||Rec||Target||Yds||RecTD||Tot Yds||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
|DEP||Tight Ends||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
|Defense||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Sack||Int||Fum Rec||Pts Allow||FP/%DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
|New England Patriots||IND||$3,200||$8,650||$4,900||7||1.8||1||0.9||27.9||2.188||0.809||1.429|
|Green Bay Packers||@SEA||$2,900||$8,400||$4,700||5.3||2.6||0.4||0.4||23.8||1.828||0.631||1.128|
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.