Week 14 DFS Cheat Sheet (Updated)
December 7, 2014 | Chet
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Welcome to Week 14 of The Fake Football DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Guru Rich Hribar, Ian Goldsmith and myself, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, and Draftday, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those four. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99), Season (12.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
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Sample FanDuel Lineups(by Rich Hribar)
FanDuel Lineup Configurations
Thursday Night finally features some offenses that have capabilities of scoring points, but overall have disappointed recently. I don’t really have anyone in this game as avoid at all costs outside of the normal plays from each offense. The one benefit that we have here is that each offense has a very shallow ball distribution, so we know where the ball is going in this game for the most part and the fringe pieces of each offense are irrelevant.
I prefer to stay in tournament play only for this game because each offense has struggled recently, and I prefer to stack Chicago players with Dez Bryant as my only Cowboy. This game really sets up well for Forte coming off seeing his fewest rushing attempts since 2011 on Thanksgiving. Dallas has been giving up big points to opposing backs and if the script happens to get off track, Forte is still safe. Instead of trying to figure out if it’s Alshon or Marshall who will be scoring the touchdowns this week, this is where I’ll use Cutler and pair him with Bennett and Forte and just use Bryant as lead receiver. At the other receiver spots, we don’t have a lot of cap left over, so I’m plugging in Stills and taking a flier on Lee, who has led Jacksonville in receiving since the loss of Allen Robinson.
I’ll provide two sample lineups that you can make depending on how you feel about using Stafford in cash games, which comes with uneasiness, but has a relatively safe floor at home with volume.
Both of these teams have similar backfields, with a combination of Foster or Lacy with Gore. Foster is arguably the best cash game back after Murray weekly as he dominates such a large part of his offense in all facets and has elite touchdown upside. Lacy is attached to a team projected to score 35 points and gets a soft individual matchup to boot. Gore won’t be a popular play this weekend, but for cash games, he’s just what I’m looking for. Whether he provides a game with hallow yardage or adds a touchdown is fine for me at this cost and he allows me to pay up at WR2 on both teams.
The WR2 of choice this week is DeAndre Hopkins, who has delivered at least five catches for 95 yards in each of the past four starts by Ryan Fitzpatrick. He’s still underpriced after his huge game last week. At lead receiver, I love Gordon this week, whether or not Davis plays for Indianapolis, but if he’s absent, go all in. Stills continues to be undervalued and has had a safe WR3 floor even before Brandin Cooks was lost. Paying up at quarterback hinders being able to slide Gronk or Graham into the lineups, but if you want to go to the bottom of the receiver well, you can manage to get them in. Kelce is a safer option this week than most since the running game for Kansas City should be limited and he has an advantage against any linebacker for Arizona. The Chiefs and Broncos are my favorite defense of the week, so they are nearly interchangeable depending on if you need to save a buck somewhere.
For tournaments, I’m going with a New Orleans stack, but instead of using Stills, I’m banking on owners being scared off of Graham, who has a great history of roasting Carolina. Since Brees and Graham dominate the cap with Lacy, I’m forced to aim wider at wide receiver. Baltimore has been hemorrhaging points in the passing game over the past five weeks, and Wallace has been close to busting out recently. Lee has been Bortles’ favorite target the past two weeks, which may mean nothing big picture and Bailey has been flying under the radar the past two weeks although he’s been a top 20 receiver.
Sunday Early Only
The Early slate today offers a lot of avenues in terms of team construction, but I’m looking to go top heavy with a sprinkling of upside/volume plays. At quarterback, Andrew Luck and Drew Brees are the best options out there. I’m going with Brees because I believe he has a similar type of ceiling today being a heavy favorite at home and a little cheaper than Luck. Carolina has allowed six of the past nine opposing quarterbacks to score 18 or more points. At running back, I’m going to the top and grabbing Arian Foster, who is arguably the most bankable cash game running back in the player pool today and I’m pairing him with a cheaper secondary back, which is Isaiah Crowell. Indy is allowing the third most rushing points per attempt in the league and that line hasn’t moved at all this week, meaning the hierarchy in Vegas believes Cleveland is going to hang around. In the receiver spots, I’m buying into Josh Gordon having a big game and finding the end zone today with Vontae Davis out. Sticking to the same script as running back, I’m pairing him with Stedman Bailey and Marqise Lee, two options that certainly have a low floor in their range of outcomes, but also volume and soft matchups. Rounding out the group, Delanie Walker will be a fixture at tight end in many of my lineups today with Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter out. Add in the Texans defense for one more potential heavy lifter.
Sample DraftDay Lineups (by Chet Gresham)
DraftDay Lineup Configurations
Cash: Pricing is tough this week as many of my favorite plays are out pricing my lineups. Safe quarterbacks are not cheap by any stretch of the imagination. Stafford is the “safest” mid-priced QB this week at home against Tampa. Tampa has been much better of late, but I like Stafford to continue his connection with a healthy Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate in the dome. Brees is one of my favorite plays and Stills is still too cheap not to jump on in the dome against the Panthers weak defensive backfield. I like the Colts to move the ball on Cleveland, even outdoors in the Dawg Pound, but he’ll need to spread the ball out and use the running game. T.Y. Hilton will have trouble against Haden and I think Boom Herron will put together a nice game overall. Andre Johnson has taken a back seat to Hopkins, but he’s still getting his targets. The Ravens pass defense has fallen off a cliff and Landry remains a safe bet for receptions and 10+ points with upside for more. Colt McCoy loves himself some tight ends and Reed should continue to see plenty of targets as McCoy uses him as a security blanket. Jonathan Stewart had a nice game last week and has looked good since finally getting healthy this season. Add in the fact that DeAngelo Williams fractured his hand and may not play and I like Stew’s price against a weak Saints run defense. The Lions get Josh McCown in Detroit and they may give up some points, but they will also get some turnovers and sacks. If one of those turnovers goes for a TD we’re in business.
Tourney: Aaron Rodgers could be done by halftime, but he also could put up 6 TDs in this one. I’m willing to put the money down on him for that chance in a tourney. Brees is solid with plenty of upside and I’m going to stack the Saints in the dome with Stills and Jimbo. Paying up for Jimbo means I have to scrape for some cheap WRs with Charles Johnson and Stedman Bailey. Johnson put up a dud for me last week, but was still the second most targeted player on the team. The problem was the Vikings blocked two punts for TDs and took any reason for Bridgewater to pass away. Hopefully this will be slightly closer and they’ll need to pass more often against the Jets weak secondary and tougher run defense. Bailey has had two strong games in a row and leads the team in targets over the last two weeks. He’s shown to be the superior receiver on the Rams and they take on a poor Washington pass defense.
I can’t get away from Stafford no matter how hard I try to mix things up. His price is just too good and I don’t love any of the cheap options. I’m going with Johnson and Bailey all over as well because their prices and upside are great and they are truly the only options that allow me to make tea,ms with the QBs I want. Good luck today all!
Sample Draftkings Lineups (by Ian Goldsmith)
Draftkings Lineup Configurations
While the Eagles shut down Dallas on Thanksgiving, they will have no such luck against Russell Wilson, the most mobile quarterback in the league. Wilson has 679 yards on the ground, good for 15th in the entire NFL. Kaepernick is a distant 2nd with 353. This rushing yardage gives Wilson a nice floor without even passing the ball. Vegas has an O/U of 48 on this game, which I think is low. Barring injury, Wilson should have a floor of 20. Ingram got back on track last week after a tough game against Baltimore. He gets a matchup against Carolina this week, whom he torched for 27 FPP just a few weeks ago. Lacy has, perhaps, the best on paper matchup of any player in the league this week. Atlanta is porous against the run, especially against RBs that can catch the ball, which Lacy is very adept at doing. Bailey has quietly become the #1 WR in St. Louis. He gets another great matchup this week against Washington. I doubled up on Miami WRs here. They face a Baltimore team that has given up nearly 800 combined yards passing in the past two weeks. As long as McCoy is QB in Washington, Reed will be a solid bet. McCoy is Alex Smith light. Woods has been very consistent recently. While Denver’s secondary is good, Denver should be ahead early and Buffalo will be passing all game long. I’ve very confident in another four to five catch day from Woods, if not more. The Texans play the Jaguars. Enough said.
I shifted down from Wilson to Hill here, who has a great matchup against the Washington secondary. While he’s a bit of a risk, the upside at his price is too big to ignore. I’m pairing him with Bailey (who is a recurring theme) to take advantage of the combo. Many will be scared away from Frank Gore because, frankly, he’s old and slow. He hasn’t shown much recently, but if ever there was a week to break out it’s this Sunday against the Raiders. He may not crack 100 yards, but he has an excellent chance at a TD or two. Baldwin should be lining up all over the field as Carroll tries to find mismatches against the Eagles. The Eagles are better at defending true #1 receivers rather than those that excel in the slot, which is where Baldwin performs best. Josh Gordon had a quiet, but effective week once again last week. Cleveland should be playing from behind all game long this week and Gordon will be heavily involved. He is always capable of a 200+ yard effort. He’s a tournament option because of the QB uncertainty in Cleveland. I’d actually prefer to see Manziel, whose mobility could open up the passing game. Bennett is the lone Thursday player on this lineup. He gets a Dallas defense that is in a virtual tie with Chicago and Indy for the worst defense against TEs. Graham should have a bounce back week this week, although my use of him in a tournament lineup speaks to an underlying uncertainty. He is definitely not as consistent as he has been in years past. The Lions at home are about as solid an option as you can get, especially against a team with no running game.
Sunday’s tournament lineup is similar to the Thursday one, but there are a couple of notable changes. At WR, Jarvis Landry takes the spot back from Gordon. The combination of that and moving from Bennett to Reed has allowed an upgrade to Arian Foster in the FLEX spot. He gets the Jaguars this week. He should be licking his chops. Hopefully Jacksonville can keep the game within a couple of scores so that Foster isn’t pulled to early. He has a fantastic chance for another monster 150+, multiple TD game, which he’s done twice already this season.
With Colts’ starting RCB ruled out with concussion symptoms, Josh Gordon becomes an almost must play. In my updated tournament lineup, I’m pairing him and Brian Hoyer. Hoyer is incredibly risky and could be pulled for Manziel at any time, but he could have a big game if he stays in, likely playing catch-up against the offensive juggernaut that is Indianapolis. To upgrade to Gordon here, I dropped Robert Woods for Jonathan Stewart. The former Duck has a fantastic matchup against the New Orleans run defense and is no stranger to the passing game. Without DeAngelo Williams, Stewart will have all the touches he can handle (although Mike Tolbert may vulture any goal line carries). At only $3,800, he’s a great value option this week. Lacy is still my #1 overall RB this week against Atlanta.
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
If the Matchup Machine isn’t sortable for you, here are the same stats in Excel that are sortable: Week 14 Sortable Matchup Stats
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
|DEP||Running Backs||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Att||Yds||YPC||RuTD||Rec||Target||Yds||RecTD||Tot Yds||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
|DEP||Tight Ends||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
|Defense||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Sack||Int||Fum Rec||Pts Allow||FP/%DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
|New England Patriots||IND||$3,200||$8,650||$4,900||7||1.8||1||0.9||27.9||2.188||0.809||1.429|
|Green Bay Packers||@SEA||$2,900||$8,400||$4,700||5.3||2.6||0.4||0.4||23.8||1.828||0.631||1.128|
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.