Week 14 DFS Cheat Sheet: FanDuel and DraftKings (UPDATED)
December 10, 2016 | Ian Goldsmith
Welcome to Week 14 of the 2016 The Fake Football FanDuel and DraftKings DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Ian Goldsmith and Chet Gresham, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel and Draftkings, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
PLUS! Ian Goldsmith’s DFS Optimizer will be added to the sheets this season! It will go LIVE every Friday!
Check out our a sheet from last season to see what you get.
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Cleveland vs Cincinnati — High near 34. South wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
The wind here isn’t high enough to kill the passing game, but combined with snow, it could slow things down (see Chicago/SF from last week)
Buffalo vs Pittsburgh — Light snow before 4pm, then snow after 4pm. High near 32. South wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
As it is, this game should be okay for both offenses.
Green Bay vs Seattle — East northeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Total daytime snow accumulation of around 4 inches. Then, A chance of snow and freezing drizzle before 10pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 20. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 9 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Not much wind and the main snow event is supposed to happen during the day. This isn’t looking as bas as before. The snow on the ground could cause footing issues, but I’ll be using players from this game as usual.
Tennessee vs Denver — A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 53. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
The winds are the concern here and they could hurt the deep passing game for both sides.
Miami vs Arizona — 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Windy, with an east wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Wind is the concern in this gam as well, but the Cardinals have been working with a shorter passing game of late. I’m not going to downgrade them too much.
Sunday Injury Update:
Theo Riddick is out. Upgrade Golden Tate and Eric Ebron. Zach Zenner and Dwayne Washington should share work.
Marquess Wilson is out. Cameron Meredith and Josh Bellamy are a bit safer now.
Atlanta is pessimistic about Julio Jones this morning. Get him out of your lineups and give Taylor Gabriel a bump.
Michael Thomas is a game time decision and with the late game he is too risky for DFS.
Chris Ivory won’t play. T.J. Yeldon will be the primary
Mark Ingram returned to practice Friday and is expected to play against the Bucs. It’s impossible to know the extent of his toe injury and if he might aggravate it during the game, so it’s tough to make a solid play out of him or Tim Hightower. Both have value in redraft as usual, but I’m fading in DFS.
Michael Thomas returned to practice on Friday and looks as if he’ll be able to go in a good matchup. There is some risk due to his injuries, but he’s been too good not to play.
Charles Sims will be active against the Saints. Adam Humphries is out and Cecil Shorts is on I.R., so the Bucs will be in need of some receiving help and Sims could easily fill that role. He’s not a safe play without a recent history of work, but he does have upside.
With Humphries and Shorts out, also expect a glut of targets for Mike Evans and Cameron Brate, making them safe plays. Russell Shepard has some deep league appeal, but is still risky.
Justin Forsett says he know 99% of Coach Kubiak’s offense, which should help him see plenty of work against the Titans, but not knowing what the true split will be between him and Devontae Booker makes for a tough fantasy decision. I’d still lean Booker over Forsett.
D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports Julio Jones will be “a decoy at best” against the Rams. He could of course go off for 200 yards, but the odds look pretty slim. Mohamed Sanu is out for sure, so that leaves Taylor Gabriel as the No. 1 receiver if Jones truly is just a decoy. Austin Hooper, Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman should see an increase in targets, but Gabriel would become a much safer play, as he’s done well already on limited targets.
Benny Cunningham is out, which helps Todd Gurley’s upside in a game where he’ll likely be used as a receiver more than usual.
The Bears receivers have some upside, but all three of Marquess Wilson, Josh Bellamy and Cameron Meredith look like they will play. Wilson and Bellamy have been limited in practice this week with injuries, so I’s lean toward Meredith as a flier if needed.
Theo Riddick, Eric Ebron and Marvin Jones will all play despite being limited in practices this week. The Bears defense has been decent enough to keep teams from building huge stats against them, but they can be beat and all three of these players have fantasy value.
DeVante Parker will play, but does get a tough matchup with Patrick Peterson. I’m fading him for the most part.
Both Jordan Matthews and Ryan Mathews will play against Washington. Both have a little upside in this one, but aren’t slam dunk options.
Jodan Reed is questionable, but looks like he’ll try to play. He’s too good not to start if he’s playing and we’ll know early.
Both Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods will play, which is a good bump for Sammy Watkins who will likely need to throw the ball more if the Steelers can score like they usually do.
Martellus Bennett is not 100 percent, but will continue playing with his injuries. A touchdown is still a decent possibility, but in the fantasy playoffs I’d like someone a bit safer if possible.
Sample FanDuel Lineups
FanDuel Lineup Configurations
Russell Wilson got back on track last week after a terrible outing at TB, though his numbers were a bit subdued thanks to a big game from Thomas Rawls. Carolina offered no fight, but the Packers will this week. Green Bay’s secondary has been absolutely atrocious, giving up the 4th most points per game to opposing QBs in the past five weeks. Wilson should have zero trouble hitting cash value in this game at his sub-$8,000 salary. David Johnson, despite a massive $9,700 price tag, is also a must in cash lineups since he’s deciding to put up 30 points per week. The guy is insane. Even if Miami figures out how to stop him on the ground, good luck stopping him in the air as well. He could very well become only the third member of the 1,000/1,000 club. Jeremy Hill tore apart the Browns in their first matchup. They’ve offered little reason to be afraid of them. Hill isn’t usually a favorite cash play of mine, but the matchup plus the sub-$7K price makes him a worthy play.
At WR, I’m going with two Patriots in Edelman and Mitchell. Yup, if I’m playing cash I’m most likely going to play the Sunday-Monday slate as I think these two offer the safest floors of nearly any player on the board, especially given their ridiculous salaries. The Ravens’ secondary is not nearly as scary as their incredible run D. Blount should be bottled up, so Brady will have to look to his WRs repeatedly. I’d even consider using Martellus or either White/Lewis as well, though they are all tournament plays for me. Dez has scored in 4 of 6 games since returning from injury. He and Dak seem to be on the same page, and I’m happy to use him once again in this divisional matchup against New
Jersey York. Brate should be used very heavily against the Saints as New Orleans tries to take Evans out of the mix. He has been one of Winston’s favorite targets and is the de facto #2 receiving option. Bailey is Bailey, and the Lions at home against a injury-riddled Bears team rounds it out.
I love Cam Newton this week. The Panthers still have an outside shot at making the playoffs, but they have to win every game and get some help in order to do so. Plus, after the benching last week, you know Cam will come out firing. I love starting angry players, be it angry Brady or angry Cam. I especially love starting them when they are at home against a mediocre secondary. If you follow my Yahoo Cup article, you know that I need a huge week this week, which means upside potential. I think Cam has that more than any other QB this week. I’m planning on pairing him with Ted Ginn there, and I see no reason why I shouldn’t do the same on FanDuel where he is an absurdly cheap $4,700. One of his patented long TDs, and he’s easily paid off his salary. I’m taking my chances.
I’m also taking my chances with Gurley, who I think will finally break out against the Falcons at home. They have been bottom five against the position all season. If there ever was a week….Along with Ginn, I’m going big at WR here with Evans and OBJ. Neither fall into my cash thinking this week as I think the opposing teams will do their best to slow them down, but I’ll bet on their talent any day of the week, especially Evans against the Saints. The Bengals are just a GPP play for me this week. While they are playing the Browns, I’m oddly a little skeptical about Robert Griffin. I shouldn’t be. He has played one game this year and wasn’t great. Still, something tells me he could make the Browns…not awful? I’m an economist, so I’d rather go with the numbers over gut, but that’s not to say I ignore it entirely. Anyways….that’s a long way of saying I won’t be using Cincy in cash.
Well, the closer it gets to kickoff, the more and more I am liking using Taylor Gabriel for the Falcons. With Sanu out and Jones either out or very limited, Gabriel should be the de facto #1 receiving option for Matt Ryan and Atlanta on Sunday. While I expect a big game from Devonta Freeman against the Rams’ weakened run defense, Gabriel will likely get double digit targets, and he knows how to turn nothing into a big play. Thomas Rawls is also gaining steam for me as I see his workload increasing heavily with the snow that is forecast for the game, even though it should taper off by halftime.
The Vikings should be the most expensive DST here against the Jags, but you get them at a slight discount over the Bengals (I also like them as you know). Crowder is getting close to a lock for me as I write this. Philly has been terrible against opposing WRs of late, contrary to the narrative of them being tough against the position. I don’t mind Evans in cash games on FanDuel here. Needing only about 2X-2.25X value overall for the cash line generally, I’m pretty comfortable using him against NO. The safer play, to be fair, is to pay up at RB and use three cheaper WRs this week. Gabriel really opens up room to pay up elsewhere.
Sample DraftKings Lineups
DraftKings Lineup Configurations
There is quite a bit of overlap, so I won’t rehash those same players. Thomas Rawls makes an appearance in the cash lineup on DK as his price is very nice, and Green Bay has not been great against RBs of late. Though they are a top-10 RB defense on the season, they are bottom-5 in the past five weeks. In that time frame they have given up 519 rushing yards and 6 rushing TDs. For the season, they’ve given up 999/8. Sooooo, yeah, they’ve taken a MASSIVE step down in quality. Start Rawls with confidence. Crowder is always in play for me, even against the Eagles’ supposedly good passing defense. Like the Packers’ run D, the Eagles’ passing D seem better than they really are. In fact, they have been the WORST defense against WRs in the past five weeks (standard, not PPR, where they are a barely better 3rd). Seriously! I’m starting Crowder all day, every day. Gresham at TE is a product of both 1) a good matchup and 2) the rock-bottom salary that allows me to pay up at other positions. He’s been consistent of late, which will have to continue as the WRs (other than Fitz) have been terrible. I wouldn’t normally use Gurley in cash games, but he is averaging more than 13 at home and gets his best matchup of the season. Remember how I said I won’t use the Bengals in cash games? Well, that’s only on FanDuel where they are 8.33% of the salary cap. They are a much more manageable 7% on DraftKings, which is tolerable.
The only new player here is Devonta Freeman. Like the Packers and Eagles I mentioned above, the Rams’ rushing D owes more to reputation that recent production. They are the worst fantasy defense against RBs in the past five weeks in FP/game. Yup, dead last. I’ll happily take that upside this week for Freeman, who should be pretty low owned. Check out Doug’s Hail Mary Weekend Update on Friday night/Saturday morning to see where his ownership levels are hovering.
Again, not a lot of differences here from what you’ve already seen. You’ll notice I’m REALLY keen on going cheap at WR as I think Mitchell, Ginn, and Gabriel all have huge upside this week. I paid up for Bell, Beckham, and Newton here. Fellow writer Doug Shain and I both feel that Cam Newton and Todd Gurley are going to have big games this week, so much so that we are both using them in our Yahoo Cup lineups (well, at least he says he is now…who knows what will actually happen when I see his lineup!).
Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters.
As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience.
To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. There are instructions on the first sheet. If you have any questions whatsoever about how to use the optimizer, or if it’s not working for you, e-mail me at firstname.lastname@example.org. I’ll do my best to get back to you right away. If you don’t have Excel 2010 or later, then shoot me an e-mail with constraints you want, and I’ll run it for you. Also, if you have any ideas for things you’d want to see included in future iterations of this, then I’d also love to hear about them! Thanks, and have fun!!
NOTE: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include.
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring. Note: This week’s odds will be up shortly.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||DK||FD||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Defense Opp DK FD Off Points Sack Int Fum Rec DefTD RetTD FPPG
New England Patriots HOU $4,000 $5,100 17 2 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 8.4
Atlanta Falcons SEA $2,600 $4,300 22 2.6 0.8 0.4 0 0 6.2
Pittsburgh Steelers @KC $2,900 $4,500 22 2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 4.8
Dallas Cowboys GB $2,700 $4,500 27 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
Kansas City Chiefs PIT $3,400 $4,800 24 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0 3.9
Green Bay Packers @DAL $2,800 $4,300 26 1.8 0.4 0.6 0 0 3.2
Seattle Seahawks @ATL $3,000 $4,700 32 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 2.6
Houston Texans @NE $2,300 $4,200 27 1.5 0.1 0.6 0 0 2.5
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART
You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|