Week 13 DFS Cheat Sheet (UPDATE)
November 30, 2014 | Chet
Welcome to Week 13 of The Fake Football DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Guru Rich Hribar, Ian Goldsmith and myself, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, Fantasy Elite and Draftday, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those four. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99), Season (15.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our Week 4 Cheat Sheet to see what you get.
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Sample FanDuel Lineups(by Rich Hribar)
FanDuel Lineup Configurations
Thursday Only Games
For Thanksgiving Day only games, there are two fun games to choose players from and then the late game that will pretty much avoided by everyone. I’m into all four quarterbacks in the earlier games, so I’m just going to take the cheapest one. Sanchez has the third most pass attempts over the past three weeks and has 20 completions of 20 or more yards since taking over for the injured Nick Foles. In the backfield, I’m taking the ultra-reliable Murray and pairing him with Joique Bell because I want to get two top flight receivers. Those receivers will be Bryant and Calvin who have tantalizing matchups and Johnson has scored in five straight turkey day games. Wide receiver has steep drop off after Golden Tate in these games, so I’m making a punt play with Terrance Williams. He hasn’t been involved the past month, but with a date against Bradley Fletcher and Cary Williams on the way, it could be a worse punt. Tight ends are also very bad for these games, so I’m fine taking Ertz at his cost and the cheapest kicker. Seattle and San Francisco are both the same price as a defense, but I’m siding with the home team for my play.
With Thanksgiving being mixed in, there are a lot of choices for game slates to get into this week. I made two cash lineups to share, one being a Sunday only and the other being all games.
For the open slate, this is where I’m fitting Tony Romo in and exploiting his and Bryant’s matchup. They are my favorite quarterback and receiver plays of the week, so I’m glad to mix them in the full slate of games. At running back, I love Anderson at his price point, which didn’t make a big enough of jump. The Kansas City run defense is a myth because they just allowed their first two rushing touchdowns, but they are bad on a per carry and total yardage level. Add in Anderson’s receiving ability he’s displayed and I’ll have him everywhere on FanDuel this week. RB2 is where you can mix and match your preferred play, but I feel safe going with Mason or Fred Jackson so I can pay up for a tight end. For this lineup I’m using Mason. As mentioned, I’m using Graham or Gronk this week. Both should be in high scoring games and see tons of scoring opportunities. At receiver after Bryant, I can’t ignore Stills at nearly free cost given that he’s been the second receiver for the Saints for the past month. Let other owners believe that because Marques Colston scored last week that he’s back to a primary role. Rounding that out, I’m going to Torrey Smith who has been a top 30 scoring receiver in six of his past seven games played.
For Sunday only, I’m getting either Luck or Brady, and because I’m saving a few pennies, I’m taking Brady here. Anderson, Stills and Graham carry over for the reasons I mentioned and here I’m getting some ownership of Fred Jackson. I can already feel the eyes rolling my plugging in Dwayne Bowe here, but Denver has allowed a receiver to score in seven straight games and 11 total over that span. I know the Chiefs haven’t had a receiver score yet, but regression is due! Plus, I’m looking for form this spot is close to 8 points in a cash game, which I’m hoping volume drive Bowe towards even without a score. Gordon completes this team as he’s still a little underpriced for his usage and ceiling.
For tournament play, it’s hard to find a cheaper stack I really like. A Dalton/Green pair could work if you’re looking to go that route, but I’m leery of chasing passing points against Tampa the way they’ve played the past month. Here’s where I’ll swing on that costly Luck/Hilton pairing against the feeble Washington secondary. Since that duo costs 31 percent on the cap, I’ve got to cut some corners and I’m doing so at running back with McKinnon, who still is getting regular volume, but has to score from 20 plus yards out to find the end zone. Jackson and Stills make the cut again because of their cost and potential ceilings and Jarvis Landry finds his way on to the board. The Jets have allowed the most red zone touchdowns in the league (19) and he’s been ascending the past month. He also gives me the room to add Gronk over Graham so I’m not completely without shares this weekend.
Sunday Early Only
The Early Only slate has a solid mix of options, but at quarterback, your options are limited. You can pay up for Luck, but I’m saving that $1,800 and going with Big Ben. Roethlisberger has been a top 12 scoring quarterback in every home start this season and has a 18/1 TD/INT ratio at home for the season in five games as opposed to a 6/5 one on the road in six road games. That extra bit of money allows me to pair him up with his ultra-dependent Antonio Brown, who’s the best receiver in the available player pool.
Surrounding Brown at receiver, I’m taking DeAndre Hopkins, who touched up the Titan secondary for 95 yards in their first meeting and Kenny Stills, who provides a lot of cap relief and has been the second favorite target of Drew Brees over the past four weeks. Grabbing stills as a discounted WR3 allows me to pay up for the best tight end on the board in Jimmy Graham and the Steelers have allowed a tight end to score in four straight. We’re really making a play on the Saints at Steelers on this slate as it carries the highest over/under at 55 points.
At running back, you can go Le’Veon Bell or Arian Foster if you don’t want to pay for a big receiver like I am with Brown. Instead I’m going for volume attached two favorites. I’ve already expressed my affection for Mason in the cheat sheet, but at his cost and near guaranteed 15 touches; he’s going to find his way into nearly all of my cash game lineups today, no matter what slate I’m in. Pairing him with Rashad Jennings, who hasn’t run well since returning, but has been effective in the pass game tacked on to heavy usage. This is a balanced team with upside, rounding the special teams and defensive options out with the Giants and Josh Brown.
Sample DraftDay Lineups (by Chet Gresham)
UPDATE: Latavius Murray is out. Look below for updated cash lineups.
DraftDay Lineup Configurations
Turkey Day: I like Stafford to get back on track against the Bears smallish cornerbacks and Calvin Johnson’s largish size. I do not like Terrance Williams or Eric Ebron all that much, but their prices are hard to pass up, especially with the high point totals that Vegas is predicting for the Lions and Dallas in this one. Romo has been on fire since re-injuring his back, so I guess he’s okay. This game is the highest over under of the day and the Eagles are worse against the pass than run. Shady has been playing well and has the best matchup defense wise of all the RBs while his price is still good. I think having Dez and Megatron coupled with Romo and Stafford is the way to go. With such a small slate I’m good with this lineup in tourneys and cash games. Matthews has been seeing a lot of red zone looks as well as overall targets since Sanchez started, so I’m happy that I could fit him in here. The 49ers will be at home against the Seahawks who’ve had a ton of trouble passing the ball. If they can slow down Wilson and Lynch on the ground they should fine and they’re price is good.
Sunday Cash: Brady is in the highest over over game of the week and of all time actually at some sports books. That’s why I like Gronk and Vereen to see plenty of work in what should be a barn burner. Luck gets a horrid Washington defense and should run roughshod over them. Stills and Landry are the two cheaper receivers I like for value. Murray is a tough one. His price is just too good not to give a shot. He’s already back to practicing after his concussion and should be good to go.
Sunday Tourney: Tannehill gets a Jets team that is in shambles and should have plenty of opportunities to put up points. Big Ben and company are predicted to score 28.5 points at home against the poor Saints defense and Brees and company should be able to move the ball enough to keep Ben throwing. If Larry Fitzgerald can’t play again I’m liking John Brown quite a bit against Atlanta. Anderson has gone up in price, but he is used all over the field and KC gives up a nice ypc to running backs. Mason is scary if the Rams get behind, but if they have the lead he will see plenty of work.
Cash: I’m finding it difficult to get away from Tanny and Luck in cash games. I like Brady and Roethlisberger, but the matchups are primed for these two. Bell is a no-brainer and I think he puts up another big game against the Saints’ leaky defense. Foster is looking safer and safer after practicing all week and being listed as probable. He’s returned from injury this season and put up huge games and the Titans are just awful. Mason has a great matchup and looks as safe as a cheap RB can be. I’d rather have Gronk than Graham, but Graham is a nice backup at a cheaper price. I’m needing to reach into the cheap WRs with Landry, Stills, Johsnon, and Moncrief, but I feel very good about Landry and Stills, okay with Johnson and hopeful with Moncrief who split time with Hicks last week and outplayed him. Going with the cheap receivers is mainly due to me not wanting to risky a lesser TE play.
Tourney: I’m going to give Cam a shot here coming off a bye. He should be healthy and ready to put some yards on the ground and at his price I’m willing to run him out in a tourney. I had trouble fitting Anderson into my cash lineups because his price has risen just enough, but he’s worth the price and possibly more. I have a feeling I’ll have him in a few cash lineups come kickoff. I like Sanders’ matchup the best in this game and think he’ll see plenty of targets with Julius Thomas wither out or not 100%. Allen is another player I want in cash lineups, but again, I wanted QBs and a top TE a little more. Rivers injuries have kept him throwing deep and Allen is getting peppered with targets lately. Kelce is the only non-Gronk/Graham who has some blow up potential at this cheap price. He’s a perfect tourney play. I like Adams in this matchup because Browner and Revis should be able to contain Nelson and Cobb enough for Rodgers to need another outlet.
Sample Draftkings Lineups (by Ian Goldsmith)
Draftkings Lineup Configurations
Thanksgiving Only Tournament
Ah, Thanksgiving. I, for one, am thankful for the fantasy gold mine that will be the Philadelphia/Dallas game. Who’s with me?! Seriously, if you are playing a Thursday only slate, then this is clearly the game on which to focus. Yes, the Detroit/Chicago game will be high scoring and fun, too, so grab a slice if you want. There are several similarly priced options at QB. Romo is my favorite, but Mark Sanchez is staring at me for $800 cheaper. He’ll be throwing often and should be a shoo-in for 18-20 FP. Using him allows me to fit in a bevy of high end players, namely DeMarco Murray, Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant. I’m able to fit in Jordan Matthews as well and worked in Sproles, the perfect tournament RB. Celek is purely a matchup play, and he’s been performing well of late. I can see him and Ertz both having good games. Vernon Davis is a reach, but he is minimum salary and gets to face a Seattle team that has struggled at times to defend the TE position. This is a tournament with limited players, so risk is needed to win.
This cash lineup is filled with solid players with good matchups. In fact, I’m amazed I can fit them all in. The Eli/OBJ combo has been nearly unstoppable recently. Yes, Eli had two down weeks against SF and Seattle, but has otherwise shined with his prized rookie WR. He has scored 23 FP or more in three of the past five weeks and gets a choice matchup. OBJ seemingly can’t be stopped. I’m not stepping off the train. Who’s going to stop him? He has scored below 14.4 FP just once in seven games this season and has a combined 31 catches in the past four weeks. Incredible. I love the Ellington/Mason/Jennings RB trio here. All three have incredible matchups against some of the worst run defenses in the league. Ellington is especially exciting as he faces an Atlanta team that cannot stop pass catching RBs. They could all reach 20+ FP rather easily, in my opinion. The Giants DST is a given for me in cash games. Streaming against the Jags has worked nearly every week. Even the Browns’ DST got 8 FP in their disappointing loss to the Jags. Kenny Stills has been getting a lot of targets since Brandin Cooks went down with injury and Graham is Graham. Pitt will have its hands full.
Stanton to Brown. Not once. Not twice….Well, probably twice tops. Either way, this combo has upside galore in a matchup against the Falcons. This has the makings of a week like Week 3 when they combined for more than 40 FP against San Francisco. Ellington will take a lot of attention and effort to stop, leaving more room for Stanton. Bell is a tournament option here because his price has jumped quite dramatically. If Foster doesn’t play, Bell will be the most expensive back on the board. Don’t shy away. This is a Saints’ team that just gave up 182 rushing yards and 2 TDs to Justin Forsett. Bell could go for 200 again. Ellington and Mason are here again. Their upside is just TOO DAMN HIGH. Pitt will have to throw to keep in the game with New Orleans. Martavis Bryant has a chance for a bounce back game after a disappointing week against Tennessee. Keenan Allen is back. While Rivers has been playing sub-par football, he’s still been able to find his prized wideout, who has had 6 or more catches in four of the past five weeks.
With Arian Foster likely playing today, I had to create a lineup with him in it. Tennessee has been absolutely destroyed by RBs in the past few weeks, including the 200 yards game to Le’Veon Bell. This roster finds a way to fit them both in by going cheap at QB and TE. Colt McCoy will not wow you, but he makes smart, albeit short, passes. Much like Alex Smith, he won’t turn the ball over. Fifteen points is not too much to ask from him. Tre Mason is the best value at RB on the board today. Many will be off of him after a bad outing last week, but he had a tough matchup. This week he gets the Raiders, who are about as good a defense against RBs as an open field. I’m using Edelman and LaFell here to try and have a mini stack of the highest O/U game of the day, while Kenny Stills has actually been very consistent for New Orleans since Brandin Cooks has been out. Dion Sims is a bit of a reach here, but he is starting for Miami and gets a juicy matchup with the Jets.
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
If the Matchup Machine isn’t sortable for you, here are the same stats in Excel that are sortable: Week 13 Sortable Matchup Stats
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
|DEP||Running Backs||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Att||Yds||YPC||RuTD||Rec||Target||Yds||RecTD||Tot Yds||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
|DEP||Tight Ends||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
|Defense||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Sack||Int||Fum Rec||Pts Allow||FP/%DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
|New England Patriots||IND||$3,200||$8,650||$4,900||7||1.8||1||0.9||27.9||2.188||0.809||1.429|
|Green Bay Packers||@SEA||$2,900||$8,400||$4,700||5.3||2.6||0.4||0.4||23.8||1.828||0.631||1.128|
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.