Week 13 DFS Cheat Sheet: FanDuel and DraftKings (UPDATED)
December 3, 2016 | Ian Goldsmith
Welcome to Week 13 of the 2016 The Fake Football FanDuel and DraftKings DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Ian Goldsmith and Chet Gresham, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel and Draftkings, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
PLUS! Ian Goldsmith’s DFS Optimizer will be added to the sheets this season! It will go LIVE every Friday!
Check out our a sheet from last season to see what you get.
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Marvin Jones will test out his thigh this morning and is still a game-time decision. Even if he goes, I’d probably steer clear and bump up Tate, Ebron and Boldin.
Tavon Austin is out. Kenny Britt should see a few more targets.
Aaron Rodgers will play.
Brady, Edelman, Hogan and Bennett will all play.
Jordan Matthews won’t play.
Mark Ingram will play. He could be limited with his toe injury, but there is no real clarity from reports.
DeVante Parker isn’t expected to play, but will see how he feels in warm ups. Play it safe and bench him.
Michael Crabtree and Latavius Murray will play.
Jeremy Maclin is out against the Falcons. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce should be set up for good games, as the Falcons should push Kansas City to throw the ball more.
The Lions promoted T.J. Jones from their practice squad, which is a concerning sign for Marvin Jones availability after he wasn’t seen doing much work in practice this week. Even if he were to suit up, I’d be hard pressed to trust him this week.
Brandon Marshall missed Friday’s practice, but got a full practice in on Saturday and isn’t even listed on the injury report. He gets a nice matchup Monday night and should be in your lineups.
Andrew Luck is not on the injury report and has cleared his concussion protocol. He gets a favorable matchup Monday night against the Jets and can be used without worry.
Charles Clay did not travel with the Bills due to the birth of his child. He still could meet the team, but he is questionable.
The Steelers signed kicker Randy Bullock after Chris Boswell landed on the injury report. Bullock will likely handle all the kicking duties, but the Steelers may also lean on the 2-point conversion instead of extra points and might tend to go for it on fourth down past mid-field.
Brandon Marshall missed Friday’s practice and has now missed the last two practices, but the Jets do play on Monday night, so they could just be giving Marshall some rest. If he practices on Saturday, he should be okay to play
Paxton Lynch will start against the Jaguars and gets a tough matchup against the Jaguars pass defense on the road. He’s only worth a flier in 2QB leagues this week.
Jordan Reed is officially out for Week 13. Vernon Davis will take over for him this week and gets a boost with Tyrann Mathieu doubtful. Reed has a chance to return next week.
Tyrell Williams returned to practice Friday and says he will play. Williams is playing with a torn labrum, so we should be a little wary of him this week, but he gets a nice matchup and has been the Chargers leading receiver this season. I’ll be playing him in redraft leagues without a thought.
DeVante Parker didn’t practice this week. Parker is a long shot to play and even if he does suit up, he won’t be a recommended start. Jarvis Landry should see a bump in targets, while Kenny Stills and Leonte Carroo will see a bump in snaps.
Kelvin Benjamin practiced again on Friday. Benjamin should be ready to go for this week. He gets a tough matchup, but his workload should still make him a start in most leagues.
Jeremy Maclin is listed as questionable against the Falcons. Maclin was able to get limited practices in this week and it appears he is going to play. He hadn’t been putting up good numbers when playing, so I’d take a wait and see stance on him this week. He could hurt Tyreek Hill a little, but I expect Kansas City will need to throw the ball enough that Hill should see similar work to what he’s been getting while Maclin has been out.
Jordan Matthews didn’t practice on Friday and is considered a game-time decision. The Eagles are thin at wide receiver, so they will likely let Matthews play if he says he can. As far as his fantasy value goes, I’d be wary.
Mark Ingram practiced on Friday, but is noncommittal about his availability. Ingram says, “we’ll see,” when asked if he play Sunday. He did say that his toe “felt good” and that his missed practices were due to “soreness,” not something worse. We do know that Tim Hightower is healthy, so there is a good chance he shoulders the bulk of the work against the Lions.
Ryan Mathews won’t play against the Bengals. Wendell Smallwood and Darren Sproles will split the work again sans Mathews. Smallwood should get a few more opportunities in a game the Eagles could lead.
Allen Hurns won’t play Week 13. Hurns is dealing with a hamstring issue. Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee will be the top targets with Julius Thomas also out. Of course the matchup is not a good one.
Chris Ivory has been ruled out against the Broncos. T.J. Yeldon should get the start, but his ankle injury could limit him like it did last week. Denard Robinson will see plenty of work as his backup.
Julius Thomas is doubtful for Week 13. Thomas won’t get to face his old team. Ben Koyack will start, but doesn’t have fantasy value.
Sammy Watkins will play against the Raiders. Watkins is not 100 percent and his offensive coordinator says he still has a broken bone in his foot, but it looks like he’ll play. How much or how effectively is up in the air, but with Robert Woods out, I expect he’ll play as much as he can and is worth a WR2/3 slot. Marquise Goodwin will be the only healthy(ish) starter in the wide receiver group.
Robert Woods has been ruled out for Week 13. Woods hasn’t practiced for two weeks. He should be dropped with Sammy Watkins back (kinda).
Marvin Jones is listed as questionable with a thigh injury. Jones was able to practice, but beat writers believe he isn’t close to 100 percent. He gets a good matchup in New Orleans, but his injury may keep him from breaking out of his slump.
The Panthers ruled out SS Kurt Coleman and MLB Luke Kuechly. Their absence should be a nice bump in production for Jimmy Graham and Doug Baldwin, who do much of their work in the interior of the defense.
Tavon Austin missed practice Friday. Austin’s fantasy value is suspect, but he is a main target for the Rams and his absence could help the Patriots D/ST.
Sample FanDuel Lineups
FanDuel Lineup Configurations
There is no QB I want more in cash games (for the price) than Kaepernick, whose running ability gives him such a solid floor, that it will be hard to look away this week. It helps that he will probably be the top owned QB this week in DFS across the industry. While that’s not appealing in GPPs, it’s very appealing in cash lineups. I’ve actually stacked him with Carlos Hyde. While I don’t love his matchup, Chicago is now without another starting linebacker. Hyde should see 15-20 touches. Given his price, he has a very good chance of 2-2.5X value. The other RB here is LeSean McCoy. You get him for nearly $1,000 discount from Lev Bell and David Johnson, but his upside in this matchup is nearly the same. Oakland has not been great against the run, even if Mack is a beast in every facet of the game. Tyrell Williams and Crowder are target monsters and should see their fair share of looks once again. I wouldn’t be too worried about a potential matchup with Patrick Peterson as Crowder runs a ton of routes in the slot and should thus be able to avoid him much of the time. Odell gets a solid matchup against Pittsburgh, who has not been that great against WR1s the past few weeks. Let’s take away last week’s game against Tolzien and the Colts…Before that, the Steelers gave up solid games to (in reverse order) Terrelle Pryor, Dez Bryant, Mike Wallace, Julian Edelman, Jarvis Landry, Brandon Marshall, and Jeremy Maclin. The lowest output in that stretch was Maclin’s 5/78 line, which is still 10.3 FP on FanDuel. Gates may be a little risky here at TE, so you may want a guy like Vance McDonald instead for a little more safety. Before last week’s big fat 0, Gates had been on fire for three weeks straight. He gets a much better matchup this week than last week’s Houston matchup. At D, it’s Denver across the board for me at this price.
Stafford is one of my top 3 QB plays this weekend. The game in New Orleans is going to be a shootout, and I can’t wait to watch it. To give a glimpse of his floor, last year at New Orleans he completed 22 of 25 passes for 254 yards and 3 TDs. There is no reason why he can’t at least match those numbers against a weak NO secondary. Hell, Jared Goff just threw for 214 yards and 3 TDs against the Saints. The O/U of 54 should easily be surpassed. I’ve stacked him with Golden Tate, who is much too cheap IMO. Frankly, you can stack your entire lineup with players from this game.
I’ve stuck with Carlos Hyde here because I like his upside at this price, though you could easily pivot to Theo Riddick. Spencer Ware will go somewhat under the radar this week with his string of mediocre fantasy performances of late, but Atlanta should help sure those woes. Still, he’s GPP only for me. At WR, Julio should demolish my Chiefs. Our pass rush is great, but our secondary is suspect as anyone who watched the Denver game saw. Marcus Peters is great in terms of stats, but allows big plays. Don’t get me started on Gaines (shudder). Mike Evans against the depleted San Diego secondary fills into the other WR slot.
For the Sunday-Monday lineup, I love using Brandon Marshall, especially if Vontae Davis is out. Heck, even if he is Marshall makes a solid GPP play at this price. I’d stack him with Fitz, but there are so many better QB options this week that I’m going to pay up here for Big Ben, who has scored at least 21 FP in every home game and has fallen below 28 FP only once. Yup. Solid. Riddick and Cooks give a different flavor to that Detroit/New Orleans matchup. Vernon Davis has been very solid and gets a bump if Jordan Reed is out. Still, he’s GPP only as the Cardinals have been fantastic against TEs this season.
CASH: One of the biggest changes for me is at TE. I mentioned Vance McDonald off the cuff (and he’s on every DK lineup below), but he really needs to be in cash lineups here. With the SF/CHI game set for snow, I’m looking for the run game and short passes to be how SF moves the ball most effectively. Plus, at only $4,900 he really frees up a lot of salary cap room for other high-end players. By moving to him and switching from Tyrell Williams to Julian Edelman, I’ve been able to move up from Kaep at QB to Ben Roethlisberger and from Odell Beckham to Antonio Brown. I love the duo of Big Ben and Antonio at home.
GPP: Well, what the hell…here’s a lineup taking full advantage of what should be a ridiculous shootout. While this is as far from safe as you’ll see, the inclusion of six players from the New Orleans/Detroit game certainly gives you ridiculously high upside if they all go off. If you are entering multiple lineups, I think it’s worth a shot. Brees+David Johnson will likely give you a floor of 45-50 alone. Add in Denver and Sturgis, and you should legitimately have at least 60-65 FP with no scoring from five of your main players.
Sample DraftKings Lineups
DraftKings Lineup Configurations
You know the drill. There is a lot of overlap with the FD lineups, that I’ll only cover the differences here. Tyrell Williams and Tyreek Hill both offer solid floors this week, and their prices are much more manageable on DraftKings than FanDuel this week. Jeremy Maclin did practice Wednesday, so Hill could lose some touches, but he’s been so dynamic for the Chiefs that it’s hard to imagine that they’d reduce his workload much. I’d expect that Albert Wilson and Chris Conley will be losing touches for KC, not Hill. I touched on Vance at TE above, but his price is MUCH better on DraftKings. It’s so low, in fact, that I would have a hard time not rostering him. You’ll see he’s on the GPP lineups as well. He has formed an excellent rapport with Kaepernick that should continue this week, especially now that Chicago has lost another starting LB. The Patriots at home against the Rams? Yes, please. I still like Denver as my #1, but if they don’t work in your lineup, then NE offers a slightly cheaper, but very solid second option.
There aren’t a ton of new faces in these lineups. Jermaine Gresham busted out last week for the Cardinals. Given that their receiving corps is so beaten up right now, he could easily see another strong week. However, he is not to be used in cash games under any circumstances. Cincy’s DST is cheap and gets a decent matchup at home against the reeling Carson Wentz and the Eagles. They offer decent upside for the rock bottom price of $2,600.
For the Monday lineup, I went ahead and used Fitz. While I said that I’d rather pay up for QB (this is still true), his price on DraftKings is so low that he should be used in at least one of your lineups. $5,200 is near minimum salary, and Fitz should have no trouble tearing apart the horrible Colts’ secondary. I went with a triple stack, using Marshall (again) and adding Matt Forte. Cooks, Tate, and Marvin Jones give you access to the DET/NO game, and David Johnson is…well, David Johnson. He’s always in play if you can fit him under the cap.
Well, the Sunday-Monday lineup above could be right out with Marvin Jones’ status. If you have used him anywhere, make sure that he’s playing. As of Saturday night when I’m writing this, things don’t look good for his availability. The most worrying sign is that Detroit called up a WR from their practice squad. I’ve provided a new cash lineup here that is full of low-to-mid tier guys and two big WRs in Antonio Brown and Mike Evans. Kaepernick is simply too cheap to ignore in cash games, so he’s listed here. However, you can certainly pivot in GPPs. I still really like Fitzpatrick against the Colts on Monday night at only $5,200. While he certainly has risk, I think he’s closer to a 20 FP floor this week with the matchup and potential shootout. I’ve become more and more of a fan of Tim Hightower throughout the week. Mark Ingram should play, but may be somewhat limited. Even if he does go, Hightower has been fine sharing the load, with games of at least 14 FP in four of his past five games, including 38 combined in his last two. At only $4,800, I think he’s warranted a place in cash lineups.
Another guy I was overlooking is Travis Kelce…and I’m a Chiefs fan! Kelce has simply been dominant the past two weeks, and the Chiefs will once again be without Maclin, which means many more looks for Kelce and Tyreek Hill, who also makes an appearance in this lineup. Vance McDonald is a must for me, as are the Broncos, which should be clear by now.
Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters.
As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience.
To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. There are instructions on the first sheet. If you have any questions whatsoever about how to use the optimizer, or if it’s not working for you, e-mail me at email@example.com. I’ll do my best to get back to you right away. If you don’t have Excel 2010 or later, then shoot me an e-mail with constraints you want, and I’ll run it for you. Also, if you have any ideas for things you’d want to see included in future iterations of this, then I’d also love to hear about them! Thanks, and have fun!!
NOTE: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include.
If you have any questions at all, shoot me an e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org. Good luck this week!
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring. Note: This week’s odds will be up shortly.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||DK||FD||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Defense Opp DK FD Off Points Sack Int Fum Rec DefTD RetTD FPPG
New England Patriots HOU $4,000 $5,100 17 2 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 8.4
Atlanta Falcons SEA $2,600 $4,300 22 2.6 0.8 0.4 0 0 6.2
Pittsburgh Steelers @KC $2,900 $4,500 22 2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 4.8
Dallas Cowboys GB $2,700 $4,500 27 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
Kansas City Chiefs PIT $3,400 $4,800 24 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0 3.9
Green Bay Packers @DAL $2,800 $4,300 26 1.8 0.4 0.6 0 0 3.2
Seattle Seahawks @ATL $3,000 $4,700 32 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 2.6
Houston Texans @NE $2,300 $4,200 27 1.5 0.1 0.6 0 0 2.5
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART
You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|