Week 12 DraftKings Value Picks
November 22, 2014 | Ian Goldsmith
Check out The Fake Football Week 12 DFS Cheat Sheet!
Kyle Orton: $5600 – Buffalo vs. NY Jets (in Detroit on Monday)
Orton has not had the best couple of weeks, facing two tough defenses in Kansas City and Miami. The Jets are not on that level, especially in away games, where they allow significantly more points, passing yards and rushing yards. Orton torched the Jets in Week 8 for 4 TDs (and 26.12 FP). 200 yards and 2TDs is a reasonable floor this week. Even a meager line like that would be enough for Orton to hit value. He’s a solid, cheap play this week who offers great upside and won’t kill your lineup.
Zach Mettenberger: $5300 – Tennessee at Philadelphia
The Titans should be vastly over-matched in Philly on Sunday, but a likely team loss does not equate to a bad fantasy day. The Titans will likely be in throw-first mode most of the game as they try and catch up with the Eagles’ offensive firepower. We’ve seen the type of fantasy points that QBs can attain in garbage time against the Eagles this season (Austin Davis, I’m looking at you!). Mettenberger could get close to 300 yards passing based on volume alone. Tournament play.
Tre Mason: $4200 – St. Louis at San Diego
Jeff Fisher has found his new back. Mason received an astounding 29 carries for 113 yards in last week’s surprising win against Denver, who hadn’t allowed more than 66 yards rushing in a game since week 3. St. Louis has another tough matchup in San Diego this week, but I expect Fisher to try and get Mason involved early again this week so St. Louis can try and control the clock. San Diego allows more than 25 FP per game to opposing RBs, so Mason has a chance to do some damage. The combination of his price and his usage makes him a fairly safe cheap option this week for cash games.
Isaiah Crowell: $3800 – Cleveland at Atlanta
It’s Crowell’s turn to try and grab a hold of the running back merry-go-round that is the Cleveland Browns’ backfield. He has something his predecessors did not, however: Josh Gordon. Gordon’s presence alone will force DCs to stack the box less often, leaving more room for Crowell to find holes. He faces a sieve-like Atlanta run defense, to boot. For $3800, Crowell is a very solid play this week in cash games and tournaments.
Josh Gordon: $6300 – Cleveland at Atlanta
Flash is back! While layoffs may scare me with some players, I’m ready to roll with The Salesman. I’d stay away in cash games as we are going into this game with blinders on, but his huge upside is too hard to ignore in tournaments, especially at this price. One caveat: his ownership will likely be VERY high. (NOTE: This is not a true value play by price, but this may very well be the cheapest you see Gordon all season. Relatively speaking, this is a value).
Jordan Matthews: $5500 – Philadelphia vs. Tennessee
Matthews’ play has been elevated since Mark Sanchez took over. Whether its because the former USC QB is using him as a crutch or Kelly is running more plays for him, he has been a lot more involved the past two weeks, catching 12 of 17 targets for 245 yards and 3 TDs. His price, for whatever reason, has not caught up to his recent performances (perhaps three makes a trend in DK’s algorithms). Take advantage and use him again this week in cash games and tournaments.
Coby Fleener: $5200 – Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville
With Dwayne Allen ruled OUT for this week, you need to strongly consider his counterpart Fleener. The two combined to have a fantastic stat line in their first matchup against Jacksonville, who gives up the 10th most DraftKings points to TEs. Luck’s former teammate at Stanford is a solid fill in for your cash games if you don’t want to pay up for the likes of Gronkowski or Graham.
Larry Donnell: $3900 – NY Giants vs. Dallas
I have a love-hate relationship with Donnell. After starting the season strong, he struggled for a few games. In the past four weeks, however, his production has been on the upswing. He gets a fantastic matchup with Dallas, who give up the second most fantasy points to TEs on the season. Donnell should find plenty of space over the middle as the Cowboys focus their attention on Odell Beckham and Rueben Randle. He makes a solid, cheap cash option this week (although, if you have the cash left over I’d rather have Fleener or Gronk).
Philadelphia Eagles: $3400 – vs. Tennessee
Zach Mettenberger has actually been playing fairly well since winning the starting QB job in Tennessee. He has at least one turnover in every game so far this season, however, and Philly has feasted on opposing QBs, generating 33 sacks so far this season. They are an opportunistic defense and I would not at all be shocked with another defensive or special teams touchdown (or two). Great (albeit highly owned) tournament play.
Indianapolis Colts: $3200 – vs. Jacksonville