Week 12 DFS Cheat Sheet (UPDATED)
November 19, 2014 | Chet
Welcome to Week 12 of The Fake Football DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Guru Rich Hribar, Ian Goldsmith and myself, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, Fantasy Elite and Draftday, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those four. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
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UPDATE: Josh Gordon is reportedly going to be on a 20-30 snap count. He becomes a riskier play, but still with upside in tourneys.
Sample FanDuel Lineups(by Rich Hribar)
FanDuel Lineup Configurations
Cash Lineup/Thursday Night
Last week was the first up and down week in awhile on FanDuel depending on what slate of games you got in on. Thursday games will be a great time to get into games again this week as a lot of owners will chase action that isn’t likely to exist as they did last week. Outside of Jamaal Charles and Kansas City defense, there’s no reason to play anyone here, so even if you don’t have a stake in Thursday night yourself, get your Sunday lineup into action.
Quarterback is what sunk the cash games I had fail last week, so I want to go right back to paying for a high end option. Rodgers and Luck are nearly impossible to fit in at their cost, so I’m comfortable taking Cutler on at his price, one he’s met seven times already this season. Against Tampa at home, I’m pairing him with Marshall and Robbie Gould to get a piece of every Bears score Sunday.
I’m not shy at all about using Crowell, even if I expect Terrance West to get work as well. Crowell is second in the league in rushing points per attempt behind only Charles and Atlanta has allowed the second most rushing attempts inside their 10-yard line this season (36). At RB54 pricing, he affords too much roster leeway to let slide through and has a lofty ceiling. Anderson has a tougher matchup against the Dolphins, but with so many pieces potentially missing from the offense, including the absence of Ronnie Hilllman and Montee Ball, he should be good for reaching the neighborhood of 20 touches and comes with touchdown potential.
Surrounding Marshall at receiver, I love Roddy White at home this week as a safe option as Joe Haden likely follows Julio Jones around the same way he followed Andre Johnson last week. Add in Sammy Watkins and his ceiling plus target volume against a very leaky Jets secondary on the road and we’re in business. Fleener is my favorite tight end play if Dwayne Allen is inactive after Gronk.
For Thursday games in which I want to use Charles, I like fitting a Tampa Bay stack around him with Gronk as my potential heavy lifters. As mentioned, Crowell will be a staple of all my games this weekend. I know playing both Randle and Hunter has a “here we go again” feel to it, but that same logic will keep their ownership down in what is two very favorable matchups. Their floor is irrelevant here, because in tournament play, we’re only looking for guys that have potential to score 25 points per slot, which their ceilings are.
For Sunday tournaments, this is the spot where I’ll use Kaepernick since I’m not prepared to go through another three hour sweat with him as my cash game quarterback. I have to use Murray somewhere, and he fits like a glove on a ceiling chasing team alongside the uber consistent Demaryius Thomas .Hunter and Crowell are my cost cutting ceiling guys that allow fitting those two in, but this where I’m taking a swing on Josh Gordon. He should see Desmond Trufant a lot, but Atlanta will have a hard time defending the run in this one, so I’m anticipating an opportunity to hit a few splash plays. Donnell is a pure matchup play with touchdown upside, but if you want to remove him for Fleener, I like that as well.
Sunday Early Only
There’s a sacrifice you almost have to be willing to make for today’s early slate, either you’re going Gronk or you’re going Rodgers or Luck. It’s very hard to fit both in a comfortable lineup, at least for me. I’m taking the steady points from Rodgers in this situation. Rodgers has thrown multiple touchdowns in nine of his past 10 against the Vikings and has thrown three or more scores in six of his past seven games this season. Since we’re not using Gronk here, the next best option in regards to price is Coby Fleener. He already enters today third in red zone targets on the Colts roster behind Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks and Jacksonville has struggled versus tight ends at times this season.
At running back, I’m still all in on Crowell at his cost. Cleveland leads the NFL in rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line while Atlanta is allowing the second most in the league. With no Ben Tate in town and cheaper than Terrance West, Crowell is alluring even if West were to split carries today in softer matchup. I’m also going back to LeSean McCoy, who has underperformed consistently the past two weeks. Tennessee is on shortened week in which they are fresh off allowing 204 rushing yards to Le’Veon Bell and allowed Justin Forsett and Arian Foster to each rush for over 100 yards and two scores each in the two games prior to that. We know the volume will be there with McCoy and the matchup can’t really get much better.
At receiver, A.J. Green is my favorite play under the Packers duo. Houston has allowed 15 or more receptions to opposing receiver units in every game except one this season (Buffalo) and James Wright was the only other Bengal receiver to play a snap besides Green and Mohamed Sanu last week. Green finally looked spry last week to tack on to his heavy usage. Roddy White is safe play considering he moves around more than Julio Jones and will find the best matchups regularly against Cleveland. Since we went heavy pretty much everywhere, we’re going to have to make a near punt play at our third receiver and Charles Johnson was targeted on 28 percent of his routes last week, the most in the league for week 11. He would draw the start today if Jarius Wright is out in a game that should force script into heavy volume. I also like Marqise Lee in this spot for those saving cash and if Johnson doesn’t get the start as he has similar game script potential as Johnson and will see Darius Butler in coverage all afternoon.
Sample DraftDay Lineups (by Chet Gresham)
DraftDay Lineup Configurations
Cash: Brees goes up against a Ravens pass defense that is hurting without Jimmy Smith and Brees will be at home. I don’t love that Brandin Cooks is out, but I like Kenny Stills ability to take over for him. Kyle Orton isn’t a great QB by any stretch, but he will get the ball out to his playmakers enough to put up fantasy points. Orton has already tossed 4 TDs against the Jets this season, with one of those going Sammy Watkins, who has a great matchup as well. I’m finding it hard to fit Gronk’s hefty pricetag into lineups, but Graham is right on the edge. I don’t usually like to stack 3 players from the same team in a Cash LU, but I feel Brees and Graham are safe enough and Stills is cheap enough. Jay Cutler isn’t playing well, but he has such great weapons that he doesn’t really have to to put up good numbers. Tampa’s D should allow good numbers. Charles is a no brainer with the way he’s been playing against top rush defense and now he gets Oakland, which is not a top rush D. DeMarco Murray’s price has slimmed down slightly and coming off a bye to face a Giants team who recently was destroyed by Marshawn Lynch and friends, seems like a nice way to get back into the swing of things. The Giants Rashad Jennings isn’t flashy, but he gets plenty of work, both through the air and on the ground. The Cowboys give up rushing yards in bunches. Cecil Shorts is scary, but with Allen Robinson gone and plenty of targets, I think he should easily hit value with such a low price. I have Crowell in all of my lineups and he’s going to stay there at that price and matchup. Josh Gordon isn’t worth a top price tag yet, but thankfully he’s under 10k on DraftDay. I’m fine to risk him at that price. Percy Harvin is cheap and continues to be the most used Jets receiver. He’s yet to have a monster game, but he’s getting enough use for him to feel like a safe play. My cheap tight end play is Jason Witten who had a nice game the last time these two teams met and has been finding the end zone lately.
Tourney: I’m going with the two cheapest QBs that I would play this week. Orton is one with Josh McCown being the other. McCown has Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson to throw to, much like Jeffery and Marshall last season and he looks to be getting the hang of it. I really like Hilton to break out against the Jags after getting shut down last week by Revis and company. Fleener is a nice play if Allen is out. I have him in the Thursday tourney and as long as Allen doesn’t practice Thursday I’ll be keeping him in there. Torrey Smith gets a nice matchup against the Saints’ Corey White, who is no bueno.
Cash: Okay, so this is going to look like I’m throwing darts with all of these lineups, but I’m giving you pretty much the same cash lineup with slight variations here for my cash plays. All three of Sunday’s cash lineups have Luck and Rodgers at the helm, which gives us a scrubs and studs look to these lineups, but I believe there is enough value to carry these teams for cash lineups. I have the Colts defense in all because they are cheap and Bortles is going to need to throw the ball, which lends itself to pick-sixes late in the game. I’m not really enamored with any of the other defenses for their price and as long as I can get the safety of Rodgers/Luck, i feel like these teams have an upper hand.
Tournament: I like this tourney team enough to consider it for cash games as well, even though mid range QBs have been killing me of late.
Sample Draftkings Lineups (by Ian Goldsmith)
Draftkings Lineup Configurations
I’m not usually a huge fan of playing Thursday players, but Jamaal Charles is no ordinary player and this is no ordinary matchup. JC Superstar gets to face a Raiders’ team that is giving up nearly 130 rushing yards per game. Charles has been demolishing top 10 run defenses in recent weeks. If you think that Oakland poses any kind of threat, think again. If you fade him, then be prepared to likely miss out on 25-30 FP (or more). Denard Robinson has been electric as the starting RB for Jacksonville in recent weeks. He gets an ideal matchup against a Colts’ team that was just destroyed by Jonas Gray. Blake Bortles is not the threat that Tom Brady is, so Indy will be able to stuff the box more often than it did last week. Still, at only $5,600, Robinson’s upside and consistency has to be considered.
I’m picking on the Jets in an away game this week. The Jets are a completely different team on the road, giving up 5 more points, 33.8 more passing yards and 35.5 more rushing yards to opposing teams. While Orton has had a mediocre last two weeks, he has a great chance for a bounce back game. Pairing him with Watkins is a great way to take advantage of this matchup.
Fleener and Allen torched the Jags earlier this season. With Allen likely out of commission, Fleener has a chance to blow up like he did against New England on Sunday.
The Eagles have shown their big play potential repeatedly this season, which makes them a perfect DST play this week against the Titans.
Charles highlights my lineup again. Kaepernick represents a much safer play against a weak Washington secondary, who were just torched by Tampa Bay. Kaepernick’s running helps him build a solid floor. He should easily hit 15-20 FP this week and likely more. His partner in crime Anquan Boldin has at least 4 receptions in all but one game this season. He is a very safe play for his price. Similarly, DeAndre Hopkins only has fewer than 4 receptions twice this season. Mallett didn’t stray away from Hopkins, like some people were afraid might happen. Keep rolling with the second year WR, even in a tough matchup at home.
C.J. Anderson has continued with the success that Ronnie Hillman was having as the starting RB of the Broncos. Peyton opens up the field so much that any capable RB can have a good game by default. Nobody is stacking 8 men against a team with Peyton at the helm. Anderson is a safe play at his price. Start him. In the flex, I’m using someone whose name normally doesn’t scream reliability. Trent Richardson, however, has a fantastic matchup against the Jags. There is no conceivable way that Jacksonville hangs with Andrew Luck and company in this game. The second half should belong to Richardson, who had 80 total yards and three receptions in the first meeting against the Jags (and that was with Bradshaw in the lineup). Use his past line as a conservative floor this week. As for the Colts’ DST…that’s simple. You roll with your DST when they play the Jags.
Where RG3 failed to take advantage, Jay Cutler will succeed thoroughly. Tampa Bay has been gifting opposing QBs and WRs huge fantasy numbers all year long. Chicago will have no trouble moving down field at will against them. Make sure to pair him with Brandon Marshall or, alternatively, Alshon Jeffery to maximize your advantage in this matchup. Torrey Smith has quietly become one of the more reliable WRs in recent weeks, with at least 16.3 FP in four of his past five games. He has a decent matchup once again this week and could well add to his recent TD production.
Larry Donnell has made me scratch my head more than a few times, but he is more than capable of a big night. Dallas is very weak against the TE position and Ben McAdoo had better be ready to use Donnell early and often. LD capitalized against the Cowboys in the first matchup and he should have every opportunity to do so again, exploiting the middle of the field while Dallas tries to contend with Odell Beckham Jr. down the field.
Updated Tournament Lineup
There are not too many changes to the lineup from earlier in the week. If you want to go cheaper than the Cutler/Marshall combo, I’d recommend pairing Kyle Orton with Sammy Watkins, who are both $5,600. Alternatively, you could use the Brian Hoyer ($5,900) with Josh Gordon ($6,300). The upside is huge. That being said, the Cutler/Marshall combo looks too solid to turn away from in the matchup against the Bucs. At the very least, it’s by far the safest.
I’ve made a trade-off at RB and FLEX here. Swapping out CJ Anderson for Isaiah Crowell freed up $2,200 to upgrade Larry Donnell to Josh Gordon. While I like Anderson and Donnell, the upside of the newer pair is much higher. I’d usually be shocked if a player got 200 yards receiving in his first game back from suspension, but I – like many people – have a strong hunch that Josh Gordon is ready to explode for a monster game against the Falcons. His presence alone will open up running room for Crowell, who gets to face an Atlanta team that is the worst fantasy defense against the run this season.
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
If the Matchup Machine isn’t sortable for you, here are the same stats in Excel that are sortable: Week 12 Sortable Matchup Stats
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
|DEP||Running Backs||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Att||Yds||YPC||RuTD||Rec||Target||Yds||RecTD||Tot Yds||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
|DEP||Tight Ends||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
|Defense||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Sack||Int||Fum Rec||Pts Allow||FP/%DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
|New England Patriots||IND||$3,200||$8,650||$4,900||7||1.8||1||0.9||27.9||2.188||0.809||1.429|
|Green Bay Packers||@SEA||$2,900||$8,400||$4,700||5.3||2.6||0.4||0.4||23.8||1.828||0.631||1.128|
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.