Week 12 DFS Cheat Sheet: FantasyDraft and Yahoo! (UPDATED)
November 27, 2016 | Ian Goldsmith
Welcome to Week 12 of the 2016 The Fake Football FantasyDraft and Yahoo! DFS Cheat Sheet!
. With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Doug Shain, Chet Gresham, and Justin Bales we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FantasyDraft and Yahoo!, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news. And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our a sheet from last season to see what you get.
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Rob Gronkowski will play according to Ian Rapoport.
Mark Ingram has been cleared. He will play, but should continue to split work with Tim Hightower.
Sammy Watkins will start and play and his snap count will “depend on how his foot feels.”
LeSean McCoy will play and should see a lot of work in a good matchup.
Desmond Trufant is out. Larry Fitzgerald becomes a much better play.
T.J. Yeldon will test his ankle out before the game to see if he can play. He is considered a long shot to play. Chris Ivory should see the bulk of the work.
Tom Brady will play and gets a boost if Gronkowski is a full go.
Percy Harvin will not play.
Michael Crabtree will play.
Chris Hogan will play.
Travis Benjamin will play.
Rob Gronkowski returned to practice this week, but has yet to practice without a non-contact jersey. He is listed as questionable and the Patriots and Jets play in the late games Sunday. Without full contact in practice, I’m leaning towards him being out this week. Martellus Bennett should be in play for a bounce back game in a matchup, which should press the Patriots to throw the ball against the weak Jets pass defense instead of running it against their strong run defense.
LeSean McCoy practiced all week and is ready to start and get the lead back work against the Jaguars. With Sammy Watkins not fully back, Robert Woods out and Mike Gillislee out, McCoy will likely be the motor for the offense.
Ryan Mathews didn’t practice this week, but since the Eagles play Monday night against the Packers, there’s a slim chance he could get work in on Saturday. I expect they hold him out and give Wendell Smallwood his snaps though and the Packers have been weak against the run of late.
Jeremy Maclin will miss another week. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have seen the biggest uptick in targets while Maclin has been out. They get a tough matchup in Denver, but will continue to be useful in fantasy as the lead targets.
Tevin Coleman is no longer on the injury report and will play against Arizona. He should get his regular amount of touches, but will be in a tough matchup.
Mark Ingram has yet to pass the concussion protocol, but has practiced all week. Tim Hightower would get the start and bulk of the work if Ingram weren’t able to go.
Todd Gurley missed Friday’s practice with an illness, but all indications are that he’ll be fine to face the Saints. His upside isn’t nearly as good as it was last season, but he’s still a must start this week.
Julius Thomas is out against the Bills. This matchup isn’t very good for the Jaguars as it is, but Allen Robinson should see extra targets to his already high target share, which should keep his upside high.
Travis Benjamin practiced all week and will start against the Texans. It’s not a great matchup and Benjamin could still have some lingering effects from his knee. I’d play it safe where you can with him.
Michael Floyd injured his hamstring in practice Wednesday and then didn’t practice Thursday or Friday. Coach Bruce Arians calls him a game-time decision, but it looks more likely that he won’t go. John Brown and J.J. Nelson would get bumps in targets while Larry Fitzgerald remains the No. 1 target.
Jay Cutler won’t play this week so Matt Barkley will get the start. Barkley will likely dink and dunk as best he can, but the Bears offense should be based on how well Jordan Howard can move the chains.
Jarvis Landry practiced in a non-contact jersey this week, but coach Adam Gase says he will play against the 49ers. It’s a good matchup and Landry has been playing with this shoulder injury for a while. Hopefully the week of no contact helped.
Sammy Watkins looks as if he’ll be active this week, but offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn says that Watkins isn’t ready for a lot of snaps yet. If you picked him up, you’ll likely need to wait until next week for a full game from him.
Robert Woods is out this week while Percy Harvin missed practices due to an illness. Harvin should be able to go and will see an increased workload. Marquise Goodwin and Justin Hunter along with Harvin will see the most snaps this week.
T.J. Yeldon didn’t practice at all, but is listed as questionable. Chris Ivory will get the start and the majority of the work in Buffalo.
Christine Michael says he has enough of the playbook down to contribute Monday night. Michael is still just a backup and we don’t even know if he’s ahead of Ty Montgomery. James Starks will remain the starter and the only back to use this week for the Packers. Of course the Eagles defense has been tough and Starks’ upside is capped.
Earl Thomas is doubtful and Michael Bennett is out for the Seahawks as they travel to Tampa Bay for an early game Sunday. Jameis Winston has been playing well of late and this is a spot he might be able to step up in a tough matchup. Consider him in GPPs in DFS.
Jimmy Smith is doubtful to play against the Bengals. His absence should help Brandon LaFell as it did Dez Bryant last week.
Desmond Trufant is listed as questionable and has a decent chance of missing this game. If he does, upgrade Larry Fitzgerald in what could be a high scoring affair.
No Updates to the Fantasy Draft Lineups as we like them as they are:
Sample FantasyDraft Lineups
FantasyDraft Lineup Configurations
Let this be your weekly reminder that we are not trying to come in first place in a cash game, we are merely trying to finish in the top half of our tournaments. This means that we are going to worry a lot more about our floor than our ceiling. There are so many QB’s we can go with this week in our cash games, but I see no reason to pay up for Mariota or Rodgers when I can save a few bucks and go with Wilson. No, he doesn’t have the upside of Rodgers, but he is plenty safe and safe is what we want. I don’t always like to stack in my cash games, but I find Doug Baldwin to be underpriced so he’d make this lineup regardless of who my QB is. He’s a very consistent player for a very nice price. I’m going to pair him at WR with Jordan Matthews. The results for Matthews haven’t screamed cash game but the guy has 10+ targets each of his last four weeks and he’s facing a bad Packers’ defense on Monday night. I like that Packers matchup so much that I’m going to be using Ertz at TE as well. Much like Matthews, his underlying stats are a lot better than his results. I expect this to change on Monday night. For both a GPP and cash game this week I think the best way to go is with heavy RB. Prices are such that I had issue fitting in rock solid RB like DJ, Miller, Ajayi, and Forte. The only top end RB that I left out here is DeMarco Murray, but using him would require me to make sacrifices elsewhere that I don’t need to make in a cash game. Forte and Miller are plenty stable enough to help me fall in the top 50% of my cash game. I see no reason to pay up on defense with the Titans facing the Bears. They’ll be the chalk on defense and I’m more than happy to go with the flow on this one.
As I’ve been doing recently, I decided to narrow down the field of potential plays to those guys that I highlighted on this week’s Cheat Sheet. This allowed me to mix and match players that I felt The more I think about configuring GPP lineups, the more I realize it’s about having a core group of players and then finding different iterations of players at the remaining positions. You’ll see that I didn’t always include every one of my staple plays but most of them show up in most of my lineups. By using them consistently and then shifting the supporting cast, I’m increasing my potential to hit a big score if my core guys go off. The reason I picked those players as my core group is that I’m finding there is a lot of value out there with the pass catchers. My staple plays this week are David Johnson, Jay Ajayi, DeMarco Murray, Lamar Miller, and Doug Baldwin.
The way I wanted to attack my GPP’s this week was to spend down at WR/TE/DEF and load up on QB/RB. There’s just so much value at the pass catching positions that it’d be foolish not to take advantage of it. With guys like Snead, Parker, Green-Beckham, Sanu, Boyd, and Sharpe all viable plays at WR and Fiedorowicz, Cook, and McDonald at TE, I knew I’d be able to fit in any QB/RB I wanted (along with a WR or TE stack for my QB). Aside from my SEA stack, where I used Wendell Smallwood so I could go with two top WR, you’ll see that I pretty much have four stud RBs in every lineup this weekend.
I pretty much am sticking to the Titans on defense this weekend everywhere because they face the Bears and the Bears are terrible. I did put the Bills in one lineup, but I only did that because I had the money to spend and couldn’t find an upgrade I liked elsewhere. I would NOT sacrifice at any position just to be able to afford a top line defense. There’s just no need to do that.
Sample Yahoo! Lineups
Sunday 50/50 (Updated)
Sunday/Monday GPP (Updated)
Yahoo! Lineup Configurations
I started this line with a Roethlisberger/Bell/Brown stack, who get a great matchup against a weak Colts defense on Thanksgiving. That took up quite a bit of salary, which meant that I needed multiple salary relief options. Dion Lewis returned last week, and his role will likely grow this week. He is a receiving threat out of the backfield, which adds to his upside. Eddie Royal didn’t play well last week, but he should see plenty of targets with the Bears dealing with injuries to Kevin White and Zach Miller and a suspension to Alshon Jeffery. Jared Cook is also coming off a great game, and he’s a high risk, high reward option for a cheap price tag. Jamison Crowder and Jarvis Landry are two slightly more expensive options, who come with good upside. Last, the Jets defense fit into the lineup, and they come with solid upside for a cheap price tag.
This lineup began with a Carr/Cooper stack, as the Raiders have one of the highest team totals on the slate, and this game should stay fairly close throughout. Rashad Jennings and Tim Hightower are two mid-priced running backs, who are coming off solid games, and get great matchups in games that their respective teams should be looking to run the clock out. Tyler Boyd should draw the start with A.J. Green out, and he doesn’t need many fantasy points to hit value. Terrelle Pryor and Gary Barnidge should both see plenty of targets with the Browns projected to lose this game by quite a few points. Julio Jones has been an extremely consistent option recently, and he gets a good matchup against the Cardinals, who have struggled this season. Last, the Bills defense fit into the lineup, and they get a great matchup against the Jags, who have turned the ball over quite a bit this season.
The Eagles are an interesting option this week. The Vegas total isn’t all that high, but Green Bay is dealing with a plethora of injuries and have had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL over the last few weeks. That has caused me to use a stack of Wentz/Matthews, and I added Smallwood because he’s cheap and both Sproles and Mathews have no been practicing. This was a cheap stack, which allowed me to spend up elsewhere. I used David Johnson and Julio Jones, who are two elite options on any given slate. Gary Barnidge makes a great option with Josh McCown back at quarterback this week. DeVante Parker and Mike Wallace are two high upside options, although they both come with quite a bit of risk, as well. Once again, I ended the team with the Bills defense, who get a great matchup against a turnover-prone Jags team.
Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters. As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience. To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. There are instructions on the first sheet. If you have any questions whatsoever about how to use the optimizer, or if it’s not working for you, e-mail me at firstname.lastname@example.org. I’ll do my best to get back to you right away. If you don’t have Excel 2010 or later, then shoot me an e-mail with constraints you want, and I’ll run it for you. Also, if you have any ideas for things you’d want to see included in future iterations of this, then I’d also love to hear about them! Thanks, and have fun!!
NOTES: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include. For instance, I’d be removing Devontae Booker if I were to run the optimizer again, because I don’t think he’ll hit what he’s predicted to.
If you have any questions at all, shoot me an e-mail at email@example.com. Good luck this week!
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||FanDraf||Yahoo||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Defense Opp FanDraf Yahoo Off Points Sack Int Fum Rec DefTD RetTD FPPG
New England Patriots HOU $7,800 $20 16.9 2 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 8.4
Atlanta Falcons SEA $5,000 $16 21.6 2.6 0.8 0.4 0 0 6.2
Pittsburgh Steelers @KC $5,600 $13 22.2 2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 4.8
Dallas Cowboys GB $5,200 $12 27.0 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
Kansas City Chiefs PIT $6,700 $19 24.4 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0 3.9
Green Bay Packers @DAL $5,500 $13 26.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 0 0 3.2
Seattle Seahawks @ATL $5,900 $16 31.9 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 2.6
Houston Texans @NE $4,600 $10 27.2 1.5 0.1 0.6 0 0 2.5
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART
You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|