Week 12 DFS Cheat Sheet: FanDuel and DraftKings (UPDATED)
November 27, 2016 | Ian Goldsmith
Welcome to Week 12 of the 2016 The Fake Football FanDuel and DraftKings DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Ian Goldsmith and Chet Gresham, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel and Draftkings, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
PLUS! Ian Goldsmith’s DFS Optimizer will be added to the sheets this season! It will go LIVE every Friday!
Check out our a sheet from last season to see what you get.
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Rob Gronkowski will play according to Ian Rapoport.
Mark Ingram has been cleared. He will play, but should continue to split work with Tim Hightower.
Sammy Watkins will start and play and his snap count will “depend on how his foot feels.”
LeSean McCoy will play and should see a lot of work in a good matchup.
Desmond Trufant is out. Larry Fitzgerald becomes a much better play.
T.J. Yeldon will test his ankle out before the game to see if he can play. He is considered a long shot to play. Chris Ivory should see the bulk of the work.
Tom Brady will play and gets a boost if Gronkowski is a full go.
Percy Harvin will not play.
Michael Crabtree will play.
Chris Hogan will play.
Travis Benjamin will play.
Rob Gronkowski returned to practice this week, but has yet to practice without a non-contact jersey. He is listed as questionable and the Patriots and Jets play in the late games Sunday. Without full contact in practice, I’m leaning towards him being out this week. Martellus Bennett should be in play for a bounce back game in a matchup, which should press the Patriots to throw the ball against the weak Jets pass defense instead of running it against their strong run defense.
LeSean McCoy practiced all week and is ready to start and get the lead back work against the Jaguars. With Sammy Watkins not fully back, Robert Woods out and Mike Gillislee out, McCoy will likely be the motor for the offense.
Ryan Mathews didn’t practice this week, but since the Eagles play Monday night against the Packers, there’s a slim chance he could get work in on Saturday. I expect they hold him out and give Wendell Smallwood his snaps though and the Packers have been weak against the run of late.
Jeremy Maclin will miss another week. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have seen the biggest uptick in targets while Maclin has been out. They get a tough matchup in Denver, but will continue to be useful in fantasy as the lead targets.
Tevin Coleman is no longer on the injury report and will play against Arizona. He should get his regular amount of touches, but will be in a tough matchup.
Mark Ingram has yet to pass the concussion protocol, but has practiced all week. Tim Hightower would get the start and bulk of the work if Ingram weren’t able to go.
Todd Gurley missed Friday’s practice with an illness, but all indications are that he’ll be fine to face the Saints. His upside isn’t nearly as good as it was last season, but he’s still a must start this week.
Julius Thomas is out against the Bills. This matchup isn’t very good for the Jaguars as it is, but Allen Robinson should see extra targets to his already high target share, which should keep his upside high.
Travis Benjamin practiced all week and will start against the Texans. It’s not a great matchup and Benjamin could still have some lingering effects from his knee. I’d play it safe where you can with him.
Michael Floyd injured his hamstring in practice Wednesday and then didn’t practice Thursday or Friday. Coach Bruce Arians calls him a game-time decision, but it looks more likely that he won’t go. John Brown and J.J. Nelson would get bumps in targets while Larry Fitzgerald remains the No. 1 target.
Jay Cutler won’t play this week so Matt Barkley will get the start. Barkley will likely dink and dunk as best he can, but the Bears offense should be based on how well Jordan Howard can move the chains.
Jarvis Landry practiced in a non-contact jersey this week, but coach Adam Gase says he will play against the 49ers. It’s a good matchup and Landry has been playing with this shoulder injury for a while. Hopefully the week of no contact helped.
Sammy Watkins looks as if he’ll be active this week, but offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn says that Watkins isn’t ready for a lot of snaps yet. If you picked him up, you’ll likely need to wait until next week for a full game from him.
Robert Woods is out this week while Percy Harvin missed practices due to an illness. Harvin should be able to go and will see an increased workload. Marquise Goodwin and Justin Hunter along with Harvin will see the most snaps this week.
T.J. Yeldon didn’t practice at all, but is listed as questionable. Chris Ivory will get the start and the majority of the work in Buffalo.
Christine Michael says he has enough of the playbook down to contribute Monday night. Michael is still just a backup and we don’t even know if he’s ahead of Ty Montgomery. James Starks will remain the starter and the only back to use this week for the Packers. Of course the Eagles defense has been tough and Starks’ upside is capped.
Earl Thomas is doubtful and Michael Bennett is out for the Seahawks as they travel to Tampa Bay for an early game Sunday. Jameis Winston has been playing well of late and this is a spot he might be able to step up in a tough matchup. Consider him in GPPs in DFS.
Jimmy Smith is doubtful to play against the Bengals. His absence should help Brandon LaFell as it did Dez Bryant last week.
Desmond Trufant is listed as questionable and has a decent chance of missing this game. If he does, upgrade Larry Fitzgerald in what could be a high scoring affair.
Sample FanDuel Lineups
Well, I normally avoid doing Thursday lineups, but this is Thanksgiving and a three game slate! So, on with the lineups!
For the price, my money is square on Kirk Cousins this week in my cash lineups. The dude has been on fire. The last time he scored under 18 FP was 6 weeks ago against Baltimore. Since then, he’s been a fantasy powerhouse, as was clear in a big way on Sunday night against Green Bay. I’ve actually stacked him here with two of his WRs: Jamison Crowder and Pierre Garcon. Garcon has scored at least 9.7 FP in five of the past six weeks. Crowder has been even better; he’s scored at least 11 FP in six straight weeks, and has scored less than that only twice this season. Dallas’ secondary is beaten up right now, so the trio should be able to have a very solid day.
I was able to fit in both Le’Veon Bell and Zeke Elliott here. They are an expensive duo, but how can I not roster them? Indy’s run D is terrible and, although Washington’s run D has been improving, Zeke has clearly proven he’s matchup proof behind that incredible offensive live. I’ve used Dez Bryant here even in a tough matchup against Josh Norman. Antonio Brown is safer. If you’d like to use him you can move off of Crowder to Jackson, Witten to Rudolph, and boom….you have enough salary to fit him in. Prater is my favorite kicker of the Thursday slate because of his consistency and price. At D, I wasn’t going to be on Pitt, but it looks like they are going to be playing against Scott Tolzien at QB for the Colts instead of Andrew Luck.
Dak Prescott has scored below 17.48 FP in exactly one game this season: Week 1. So, if anybody is going to set a solid floor for your lineup it’s him. I think this game will turn into a shootout and that he will have a chance for another 3 TD game. Of course, if you are a risk taker, then look at the aforementioned Tolzien, who is only $5,000. I mean, if he somehow throws for a couple of TDs, which is certainly possible, then he’s probably given you 15 FP and 3X value. Consider him if you are entering multiple lineups in a contest.
Rob Kelley makes an appearance here after a 3TD game against the Packers. Dallas will not allow that kind of production, but the guy just doesn’t lose yardage. He carries his momentum forward and holds onto the ball, both of which Matt Jones was unable to do. He will certainly get a big enough workload to produce, so I’m considering using him on volume alone. Jordan Reed slots into TE. I’m not exactly excited about using him as Cousins has been increasingly looking towards his WRs, but his upside is beyond compare on this slate. I do not like the Vikings in cash games this week, but if any team can score a DST TD this week, my money would be on them.
I am all about Russ Wilson this week, and the Hawks in general. Though the game against Tampa doesn’t have the highest over/under of the week, Seattle are six point favorites, given them an implied total of 25.5, which is very solid. With three straight monster weeks in a row and a matchup against a very forgiving Bucs defense, I anticipate Wilson making fantasy owners very happy once more. Plus, his price has still not risen to the levels it should be (mid-$7,000s on DK, mid-$8,000s on FanDuel). I’m happy to team him with Baldwin and Rawls this week, both of whom are underpriced for their potential output (to be fair, Rawls’ price takes into account his limited workload this season).
Despite the price, David Johnson will probably find his way into all of my lineups. The matchup against Atlanta is incredible. Hell, even if it weren’t, DJ has proven himself to be matchup-proof. His ability in the passing game makes him a weapon rivaled only by Le’Veon Bell and, perhaps, Zeke Elliott (though Elliott is more a product of that otherworldly offensive line…not to take away from his ability, which is also first class). Jay Ajayi has, perhaps, the best matchup of anyone this weekend, but he’s also lacking a couple key blockers. If he gets them back, then his upside is perhaps higher than anyone, but as it stands, I’ll probably only play him in cash games with a strong floor and limited upside (just watch him run for 200 yards again after I say that!). Fitz has not caught fewer than 5 passes in a game this season, and Steling Shepard is quickly becoming a favorite of Eli Manning. He has been a consistent threat all season and has really been turning it on as of late.
I love Fiedorowicz and Brate for their target potential. Brate is riskier, for sure, but if there is one place Seattle can be beat it’s by tight ends. Ertz had a solid 6/35/1TD line last week, and Gronk and Bennett combined for over 150 yards the week before. The Bills and Ravens are my two favorite DST plays of the week, but I’m also happy to use Tennessee against Matt Barkley and the broken Chicago Bears.
I had already warmed to using Palmer on DraftKings at his rock-bottom price, but confirmation that Desmond Trufant is out, the Palmer to Fitz connection is looking like a very intriguing stack on FanDuel as well this week. The game is the highest over/under on the slate, and we should see fireworks on both sides of the field. I’ve warmed to Amari Cooper over the course of the week as well. Carolina has been better of late, but they are suspect against WR1s on the road. Cooper is a high-upside GPP only play this week. For those playing Monday night slates, I really like stacking the Eagles, specifically Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz at their prices. Given their high target numbers and the poor Green Bay secondary, I am looking for both to have big games.
Sample DraftKings Lineups
DraftKings Lineup Configurations
There is quite a bit of overlap with the FanDuel Thanksgiving lineups above, so I won’t rehash them. There are some new names here, however: Adam Thielen, Eric Ebron, and Theo Riddick. They are all seeing consistent targets/touches and have decent matchups. While the Vikings look daunting, it’s TEs and receiving RBs that are able to do damage against them. Ebron and Riddick combined for 24.8 against the Vikings just a couple of weeks ago and should be able to repeat at home. It looks like Stefon Diggs will miss this week’s game, so Thielen makes for an excellent cheap option against the Lions, even if he will be lining up against Darius Slay.
Colin Kaepernick is always in play for me as his running ability elevates his fantasy output dramatically. He basically starts with a free 5-6FP floor. Again, there are a ton of similar names here that I won’t go over again. One of the one’s not mentioned above though is Vance McDonald, who has quickly formed a rapport with Kaepernick. In each of Kaep’s four starts, McDonald has 6 targets. He had a max of 3 (Week 1) when Gabbert was starting. I’m not thrilled about using Tajae Sharpe, but his price is so good, and he’s been hot the past few weeks and his price is still under $4,000. I was touting him early this season and got burned a few times…hopefully it doesn’t happen again. Either way, he’s a GPP play only because of the risk he presents.
Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters.
As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience.
To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. There are instructions on the first sheet. If you have any questions whatsoever about how to use the optimizer, or if it’s not working for you, e-mail me at firstname.lastname@example.org. I’ll do my best to get back to you right away. If you don’t have Excel 2010 or later, then shoot me an e-mail with constraints you want, and I’ll run it for you. Also, if you have any ideas for things you’d want to see included in future iterations of this, then I’d also love to hear about them! Thanks, and have fun!!
NOTE: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include. I, for one, am not a fan of the Vikings this weekend. I’d rather have the Dolphins or Giants any day of the week for cheaper. Remember to remove players you don’t want to consider! For instance, I’m not a big fan of Devontae Booker, so I’ll take him out before running the optimizer again.
If you have any questions at all, shoot me an e-mail at email@example.com. Good luck this week!
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring. Note: This week’s odds will be up shortly.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||DK||FD||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Defense Opp DK FD Off Points Sack Int Fum Rec DefTD RetTD FPPG
New England Patriots HOU $4,000 $5,100 17 2 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 8.4
Atlanta Falcons SEA $2,600 $4,300 22 2.6 0.8 0.4 0 0 6.2
Pittsburgh Steelers @KC $2,900 $4,500 22 2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 4.8
Dallas Cowboys GB $2,700 $4,500 27 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
Kansas City Chiefs PIT $3,400 $4,800 24 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0 3.9
Green Bay Packers @DAL $2,800 $4,300 26 1.8 0.4 0.6 0 0 3.2
Seattle Seahawks @ATL $3,000 $4,700 32 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 2.6
Houston Texans @NE $2,300 $4,200 27 1.5 0.1 0.6 0 0 2.5
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART
You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|