Week 11 Starts and Sits
November 21, 2015 | Chet
I’m not going to lie, I went a little overboard with the Week 11 Starts and Sits video. I’ll try to rein it in and keep future videos a little more digestible, but I had a lot to say this week, so feel free to jump ahead if certain match-ups don’t have any bearing on your start/sit decisions this week. Enjoy the content smörgåsbord:
- Blake Bortles vs. TEN: A TNF call that did not work out, Bortles was doomed by turnovers in this game, something that will continue to be a risk going forward.
- Tyrod Taylor @ NE: He went off in garbage time the last time Buffalo faced New England. I don’t necessarily expect a repeat performance, though. My primary concern is the injuries to Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman causing a shift in NE’s plan to more of a running-based attack with Blount. A grindy game script could limit Buffalo’s offensive opportunities. Still, Tyrod’s floor is solid and he’ll need to remain engaged both running and passing to compete with the Pats, so I’m starting him with confidence.
- Matthew Stafford vs. OAK: The Raiders’ already shaky defense tends to play worse on the road, which bodes well for Stafford and his receiving options.
- Alex Smith @ SD: The Chargers rank 27th against the pass and their offense should put up enough points to keep Smith throwing.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick @ HOU: All systems are go for Fitzmagic coming off hand surgery. The Texans’ recent stretch of formidable defense gives me a little pause, but I like New York coming off a long week against Houston on a short week.
- Charcandrick West @ SD: West gashed the daunting Denver defense last week, so my imagination has been running wild thinking about him this week against San Diego’s league-worst run defense.
- LeGarrette Blount vs. BUF: The Bill have the league’s 4th-worst run defense by DVOA. Look for the Pats to lean on Blount for clock control to avoid another garbage time assault from the Bills.
- Jeremy Langford vs. DEN: One successful game doesn’t make Langford match-up proof, but it’s easier to run than pass against the Broncos, as shown in Week 10 by Charcandrick West.
- Ronnie Hillman @ CHI: I try to avoid tabbing opposing RBs as starts, but Hillman’s match-up against the Bears is too appealing to ignore, regardless of how much I like Langford.
- Karlos Williams @ NE: A pure rankings pick. As mine were coming together this week, Williams slotted right into that 20-24 range among running backs and I had no reason to move him down.
- Andre Ellington vs. CIN: Only deep leaguers and PPR proponents need apply. Ellington deserves a bigger workload and he might get it in this potential shootout with the Bengals.
- Eric Decker @ HOU: See Ryan Fitzpatrick above.
- Danny Amendola vs. BUF: He was already soaking up targets from the departed Dion Lewis. Now he’ll absorb Julian Edelman’s workload, as well. He’ll produce if he can stay healthy.
- Stevie Johnson vs. KC: The Chiefs’ defense is firing on all cylinders, but someone needs to catch the passes thrown by Philip Rivers.
- Davante Adams @ MIN: While not particularly efficient, he’s been a target hog lately. Keep rolling with the hot hand in Aaron Rodgers’ arsenal.
- Golden Tate vs. OAK: See Matthew Stafford above.
- Leonard Hankerson vs. IND: The Falcons have missed him, and he should get back on the field this week for a nice match-up against the Colts’ 21st-ranked pass defense.
- Dontrelle Inman vs. KC: Still only worth consideration in deeper formats, but Inman stands to inherit even more targets now that Malcom Floyd is hobbled.
- Eric Ebron vs. OAK: See Matthew Stafford above. Plus, Oakland’s pass defense is particularly lax against tight ends.
- Jason Witten @ MIA: Welcome back, Tony Romo!
- Crockett Gillmore vs. STL: Not an easy opponent, but Gillmore remains the Ravens’ best red zone threat.
- Coby Fleener vs. ATL: Matt Hasselbeck should have time to throw against Atlanta’s 31st-ranked pass rush, which bodes well for all of Indy’s receivers. I like Fleener in particular because he runs the intermediate routes that Hasselbeck is accustomed to targeting.
- Jameis Winston @ PHI: My mom always said to avoid rookie QBs on the road against good defenses. Great advice. Thanks, mom.
- Jay Cutler vs. DEN: He burned me last week with his performance against the Rams, but Alshon Jeffery seems to have aggravated his injury (or injuries), so I’m doubling down against Cutler.
- Joe Flacco vs. STL: Simply a bad match-up for the Baltimore passing game. There are too many other QB options with easier opponents this week.
- Teddy Bridgewater vs. GB: Teddy wins my award for 2015’s most boring and unusable fantasy quarterback. He hasn’t performed well in good match-ups, so you’d be foolish to use him here against Green Bay’s 12th-ranked pass defense.
- Kirk Cousins @ CAR: From the best possible match-up to one of the worst. Luckily, we can get off the Kirk Cousins roller coaster whenever we want (in standard leagues, at least).
- Jeremy Hill @ ARI: Brutal match-up. Besides, this is Giovani Bernard’s backfield now.
- Melvin Gordon vs. KC: Speaking of promising young RBs usurped by more malleable options, Gordon’s value is still bottled up by his cork-sized teammate Danny Woodhead. Ultimately, the Chargers are not a good rushing team, which leads to more work for the pass-catching Woodhead and more time on the sidelines for Gordon to secretly commiserate via text with DeVante Parker.
- Antonio Andrews @ JAC: Exceeded my expectations with a clip of 5.2 yards per carry against Jacksonville’s 2nd-ranked run defense (totaling 9.4 standard fantasy points). I thought David Cobb would get more run, but he struggled, carrying only 4 times for -3 yards.
- Shaun Draughn @ SEA: Niners? Nope.
- Alfred Blue vs. NYJ: The Jets sport the league’s best run defense. This game sets up better for Jonathan Grimes and Chris Polk.
- Joique Bell vs. OAK: Whether it’s this week, next week, or the week after that, Ameer Abdullah will need more work, so I’m hedging against the underwhelming Bell now.
- James White vs. BUF: This is actually a nice match-up for White (see Blount above), but I just couldn’t rank him ahead of other similar passing down backs.
- Kamar Aiken vs. STL: See Joe Flacco above.
- DeSean Jackson @ CAR: See Kirk Cousins above.
- James Jones @ MIN: The James Jones fade out seemed to happen last season with the Raiders as well, and Davante Adams’ emergence over the past couple weeks has exacerbated the situation for Jones.
- Nate Washington & Cecil Shorts III vs. NYJ: Nothing can stop DeAndre Hopkins, but there’s no way I’m using Houston’s secondary receivers with T.J. Yates under center.
- Mike Wallace vs. GB: See Teddy Bridgewater above. Kyle Rudolph led the Vikings in targets last week with 4. The work isn’t there for Wallace.
- Torrey Smith @ SEA: NINERS?! NOPE.
- Jacob Tamme vs. IND: Not an awful match-up, but Leonard Hankerson’s return will sap Tamme’s target share.
- Martellus Bennett vs. DEN: Another difficult opponent for the Black Unicorn.
- Zach Ertz vs. TB: Mark Sanchez stifles Ertz’s value.
- Jordan Cameron vs. DAL: He’s averaging fewer than 3 targets per game over the past 4 weeks. The Dolphins just aren’t using him.
Thanks for reading/watching and good luck this week.