Week 11 DraftKings Value Picks
November 14, 2014 | Ian Goldsmith
Editor’s Note: Check out our DFS Cheat Sheet!
RG3: $6300 – Washington vs. Tampa Bay
RG3 looks like he is finally healthy (whatever that means with him), has had a week off to rest and study and gets to face one of the most generous defenses to QBs. Win. Win. Win. He has one of the best receiving tandems in the league (look for Garcon to bounce back in a BIG way this week) and has a capable running back to take the pressure off of him. Everything adds up to a breakout week. He has the potential for top 5 fantasy QB numbers this week.
Philip Rivers: $6800 – San Diego vs. Oakland
One horrific game and this guy’s price drops $1500? You cannot overlook Rivers at this astoundingly low price. He gets to play Oakland at home, the same team that Rivers dismantled a few weeks ago for 313 yards passing and 3 TDs. If you want to spend $10,000 on Andrew Luck, go right ahead. Rivers has the chance to get nearly the same production for $3200 less.
Theo Riddick: $3100 – Detroit at Arizona
NOTE: This pick is only if Reggie Bush is held out of the game. If this happens, I love Riddick at his price on full PPR sites. He may not run the ball well (15 carries for 32 yards on the season), but he has shined in the passing game when Bush has been absent. In weeks 6 and 8, when Bush didn’t play, Riddick had a combined 13 catches for 149 yards and 2 scores, which amounted to 19.1 and 20.9 FP, respectively. If he comes anywhere close to those numbers again, he’ll easily fly past value and catalyst your team to a high score, even against the #1 run defense in the league.
Ryan Mathews: $4500 – San Diego vs. Oakland
Yes, everyone knows that Mathews is coming back this week against a terrible Oakland team. I’m not going to say much here other than he is healthy and should get at least 15 touches. This is likely the lowest price you’ll see for him for the rest of the season.
Pierre Garcon: $4000 – Washington vs. Tampa Bay
Garcon has had five games in the single digits. He has thoroughly disappointed owners with his inconsistency, which, to be fair, is partly the fault of the QB carousel in Washington. Even so, he was a legitimate WR2 or better when drafts occurred in late August. He led the league in receptions last year, for goodness sake! This week’s matchup could not be better to get him back on track. I anticipate a lot of RG3/Garcon stacks, for good reason. Don’t be afraid to use the combo.
Jordan Matthews: $4500 – Philadelphia at Green Bay
Well, well….Matthews quickly became Sanchez’ favorite receiver. What a huge game last week! The Eagles WRs actually get a fairly tough matchup this week; Green Bay’s secondary is not to be messed with, but I think this game is an occasion where volume trumps matchup. Green Bay will have NO trouble moving down the field against Philly and Sanchez will have to pass all game long for the Eagles to stay close. I don’t think Matthews will repeat last week’s numbers, but he should hit value.
Travis Kelce: $4000 – Kansas City vs. Seattle
If Fasano is out or severely limited, which seems probable, then Kelce immediately becomes a player that you need to consider. While he has been inconsistent, his price is reasonable and he should receive ample chances against a Seattle team whose main hole in defense is to the tight end position. Hopefully Reid hears all of our calls and uses Kelce early and often.
Dwayne Allen: $4200 – Indianapolis vs. New England
Allen is Mr. Consistency. He has scored touchdowns in 7 of 9 games this season. In cash games, I’ll roll with him every single time and not look back. Add in the fact that this game has an insane 57.5 O/U and the fact that New England struggles to defend TEs, and Allen has a chance for a big game.
San Diego: $3200
San Diego struggled in their first game against Oakland, barely holding onto a win after allowing rookie Derek Carr to throw for 4 TDs. Ouch. This is a team that has been trending down and just got absolutely embarrassed against Miami. The bye week could not have come soon enough. San Diego will come out with fire in their eyes and look to take the rookie down. This game will not be nearly as close as the last one. They are priced a little higher than I would have liked (the DST has scored a total of -4 FP in the past four weeks combined!), but I like the potential with Vegas listing them as 10 point favorites.
St. Louis is starting Shaun Hill. He’s not played since week 1 and now gets the joy of facing Vonn Miller and Co. FUN! Denver is allowing almost nothing on the ground, which will force Hill into the passing game early. St. Louis simply does not have the pieces to compete and Hill will likely be forced into several mistakes.