Week 11 DFS Cheat Sheet (UPDATED)
November 16, 2014 | Chet
Welcome to Week 11 of The Fake Football DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Guru Rich Hribar, Ian Goldsmith and myself, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, Fantasy Elite and Draftday, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those four. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99), Season (15.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our Week 4 Cheat Sheet to see what you get.
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Sample FanDuel Lineups(by Rich Hribar)
FanDuel Lineup Configurations
Cash Games/Thursday Night
WR3 pricing loosened up a bit this week, but there’s little to be had in that area of the pool. Rodgers or Manning is an easy staple for you lineups this weekend, but they’ll cost you at least 17 percent of your cap. Fit them in where you can. Instead, I’m looking to exploit the Monday Night salary freeze and get back in on Mark Sanchez. Sanchez was the QB4 last week and put up 13 point in a half at Houston off the bench . On a team that has run 65 or more plays in all but two games, in an anticipated shootout by Vegas, I’ll side with him meeting value and exceeding it even in a tough draw. At running back, I’m going right back to the well on Hill and McCoy who didn’t live up to value last week, but are more than reasonably priced again in two soft matchups. Receiver is where things get sketchy, because I’m definitely playing Gronk or Graham in all my lineups this week, treating them as my defacto WR2. If you want to go down to Julio from Jordy and use that cap to upgrade on the final two spots, go for it. Roddy and Jennings are boring, high target options that don’t excite, but I’m looking for safe production from those spots.
Thursday presents a great time to get into games and not use anyone because there will overexposure to many poor options heading into the weekend. Buffalo defense is the only piece of that game I want with Branden Albert out and Lamar Miller expected to be limited or miss the game entirely. Mike Wallace hasn’t topped 81 yards all season and is living off touchdown production, so let someone else chasing this week as the big one with him. Miami has been just as tough as Buffalo on defense, allowing only one top 10 quarterback all season. There are better options on Sunday, but don’t let that stop you from submitting your Sunday lineups in Thursday games to knock out a few opponents chasing points.
The Packers are scoring more points per play than the 2013 Broncos and have been a behemoth on offense at home to start the season. Give me all as much of this offense as you can and watch the points pile up. A lot of people liked Davante Adams last week, but his matchup is far more favorable this week as Philadelphia defends the interior far better than the boundaries. Get him going this week at such a cheap salary with Jordy. Gronk, Grahah, Graham, Gronk. Do it. McKinnon is similar to Adams in that he’s so cheap, but his floor is much higher and has the same ability to post a crooked number. His salary is one of the biggest neon signs of the weekend, unfortunately his floor isn’t sturdy enough for cash games.
The second team is similar to the first, but with a play on Washington hosting Tampa. I like this team a little more than the Pack stack because you get the Denver defense upgrade as well as the RB2 upgrade. That’s what putting Rodgers in your lineup eats up. Finishing it off, Malcom Floyd is solid tourney guy across the board this week given his performance against Oakland earlier and his dirt cheap cost.
Sunday Early Only
It’s hard to run with a lineup without using any Broncos skill players, but Peyton and Demaryius are just too rich to fit in a balanced lineup. If you can make either work as your anchor around a lineup you like, go for it. With the latest news of Alterraun Verner missing today’s game, I feel comfortable playing Robert Griffin to gain the cap relief he provides as opposed to taking Manning’s surefire 25 points at the expense of a strong play elsewhere. I also really like the floors of Jeremy Hill and Greg Jennings at their respective spots, so I’m taking those safe points to go heavy with Jimmy Graham , Julio Jones and Mark Ingram. Jones and Mark Ingram have two of the highest yardage predictions by Vegas in the early slates, so I want those two in my lineup. If you want to get real risky and save more cap space, you can dabble with Shaun Hill and Jerick McKinnon, but neither are strong cash game plays. Rounding out, Jackson is still seeing the target volume to make him safe at his cost and has touchdown upside.
Sample DraftDay Lineups (by Chet Gresham)
DraftDay Lineup Configurations
I can’t get away from RG3 at his insanely low price. I’m guessing he will be heavily owned, but with a matchup against Tampa Bay and him looking capable in his first game back from injury, I don’t see how he won’t exceed value. Rivers looks like one of the safer QB plays for a reasonable price going against the Raiders at home after a bye and a humiliating defeat to Miami. I trust in Mike McCoy and Ryan Mathews should be back to help move the offense. Shane Vereen should be heavily used in a high scoring affair in Indy. The Colts rank last in Football Outsiders metrics for defenses against running backs through the air and 22nd against the run. Vereen is set up for a nice game. I’m still good with getting Keenan Allen in my lineups. He leads the team in targets and has 19 receptions in his last three games. I won’t be without Grahm or Gronk if I can help it. Both have good matchups. I like Olsen as my cheaper option as he’s been the one consistent receiver for Cam. And Packer receiver is worth a look this week and Nelson is in my top 3 for Week 11 and his price is somewhat bearable. The Lions and the Broncos have great matchups against Stanton and Davis. I’m willing to pay the extra for the Broncos if I can fit them in. Jarvis Landry is my cheap punt receiver and the Bills have been poor against #2 receivers this season, while Landry has averaged 5 receptions over the last five games and found the end zone twice. He led the team in targets last week with 10 and looks to have passed Hartline in usage. C.J. Anderson looked too good to not get a shot to stay the hot hand against the Rams. This should be an easy win for the Broncos and Anderson could see a good amount of work even with Ball returning.
I’ve put together quite a few lineups without RG3 and I just do not like them as much. His price is crazily low for such a good matchup. I wish I could have more or any Packers receivers or Rodgers, but their price is just too much with wide receivers and tight ends priced a little too high to put together a thorough team with them. I like Wayne as a cheapish add in what should be a high scoring affair. Ingram is shaping up to be one of the safest RB plays priced under 12k. There are plenty of decent low priced RBs this week with Anderson, Hill, Vereen, Blue, Morris and Riddick. Blue makes for the cheapest play and even though he’s not going to be anywhere close to Foster’s ability, he still will get enough work against a poor run defense to hit value at such a low price. Riddick should be safe in the 1 point ppr of DraftDay. In the two games where Bush was out, Riddick hit 19 and 21 DraftDay points. Arizona isn’t an easy matchup, but Riddick should be a great outlet for Stafford. Julio Jones price hasn’t caught back up to his ability and the Panthers have absolutely no cornerbacks worth mentioning.
Sample Draftkings Lineups (by Ian Goldsmith)
Draftkings Lineup Configurations
There are not a lot of fantasy friendly options in this matchup, but you cannot overlook Sammy Watkins, who just needs one good move to get behind defenses and go for a deep score. On the other side of the ball, the Miami DST has been rock solid recently. Their worst performance of the past month was last Sunday, a game in which they still scores 8 FP. They are pressuring opposing QBs well, which is evident in the 3 or more sacks they’ve had per game in the past five games. I went uber cheap at RB in this lineup, to show what is possible elsewhere. Carolina’s RBs are hard to pick correctly, but they have a great collective matchup against Atlanta, whose defense is by far the most fantasy friendly to RBs. They only cost $7000 combined. They are risky even at that price they are risky, but the matchup is too good to not at least consider them. I’m rolling with a lot of Philip Rivers this week. His price dropped dramatically after his 4 turnover day at Miami. He gets to bounce back at home this week against an Oakland team that has no match for him. Earlier this season he torched them for 313 yard and 3 TDs. My two-headed TE monster will dominate the world….Gronk and Graham are matchup nightmares who happen to be facing two of the worst fantasy defenses to TEs. Brandon LaFell was my last slotted pick. He has at least four receptions in every game since week 3. The NE/IND game has an O/U of 57.5…Don’t be afraid to stack both teams.
Tampa Bay has struggled to defend the pass all year long. This is the perfect week to take a chance on RG3 and his great crop of receivers. This is a true stack, using RG3, Desean Jackson, Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed. The latter two offer immense upside. Garcon was a legitimate #1 WR to start the season after a 2013 campaign in which he caught at least 5 passes in every game. This is the week he bounces back. At a shockingly low $4000, he’s going to be on a lot of my tournament lineups. Reed disappeared last week, but I love his upside at this price as well. If you want to limit your exposure, I’d do the RG3/Garcon matchup and use the $10600 from DJax and Reed to find two mid-tier options (AJ Green looks tempting at $6000). Mark Ingram is a safe play here as the Saints will continue to feed him the ball, although he will get a downgrade if Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson return. Ryan Mathews is back from injury and, while San Diego will supposedly take it easy with him, he has a great matchup to exploit. He’s only $4500 and not a lot of people will have him in their lineups. For a similar price, you could move to Jerick McKinnon. Gronkowski will be in almost every single lineup of mine.
I talked about Rivers before, but I want to reiterate how high I am on him this week. Reaching value should be a lock and he is three grand cheaper than all of the other top QB options. If you want to reach for Brady, Rodgers or Luck, then please do. They are all very safe plays this week if you want to spend close to $10000. Ingram is very safe for his price and Vereen will be needed a lot in the passing game this week. The NE/IND game will see a ton of possessions, so load up. That goes for the GB/Philly game as well. In that game, I love Jordan Mathews who instantly became Mark Sanchez’ favorite receiver. At $4500, he offers safety. They goes for Randall Cobb as well. Philly will have no way to stop the Aaron Rodgers attack, unless he goes down with injury. I want as much exposure to Cobb and Nelson as I can afford. Dwayne Allen has a TD in seven of nine games this season. That is astounding reliability. Luck looks to him often in the red zone and he delivers. DeAndre Hopkins has at least 5 receptions and 62 yards in every game since Week 3. Now, he does get a different QB this week in Ryan Mallett, so don’t take him for granted. For roughly the same price, you can have an AJ Green or Brandon LaFell. There is a lot of maneuverability in Hopkins’ price range should you decide to go elsewhere.
With Arian Foster OUT and Reggie Bush very unlikely to play, playing time opens up for two minimum salary RBs: Alfred Blue and Theo Riddick. The backs will give you completely different efforts. Blue will be a workhorse and see at least 15-20 touches against Cleveland, while Riddick will mainly be used in the passing game. I already highlighted Riddick in my value plays for the week because in two previous games without Bush, Stafford has looked Theo’s way repeatedly for 13 receptions, 149 yards and 2 TDs. In a full PPR like DraftKings, that is fantasy gold. Don’t be afraid to use Riddick in tournaments. In this lineup, I’ve shown you the type of firepower you can have if you start both of these guys, who cost a mere $6100 combined.
Aaron Rodgers will be a top 3 QB this week against Philly. He was absolutely insane last week and gets another fantastic matchup. QB is interesting this week. You can save money and go cheap with Robert Griffin, Philip Rivers or *GASP* even Mark Sanchez, or you can go big with AROD, Peyton, Luck or Brady, all of whom cost an arm and a leg. Take your pick. Honestly, if anyone tells you they know who will be #1 out of this bunch they are crazy.
Pierre Garcon hasn’t done much recently, but he should break out against a terrible Tampa secondary. Jordan Matthews showed what he can do last week, when we discovered how much Sanchez loves throwing to him. With these two cheap, high-upside picks, I’m able to fit in Jordy Nelson – a great pairing with AROD – and both Rob Gronkowski AND Jimmy Graham. Both TEs have incredible matchups and will be a nightmare for defenses this week.
If you want to go cheaper at QB and, say, sub out AROD for RG3, then you can upgrade Blue or Riddick to Mark Ingram, who is an absolute steal for $6200.
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
If the Matchup Machine isn’t sortable for you, here are the same stats in Excel that are sortable: Week 11 Sortable Matchup Stats
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
|DEP||Running Backs||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Att||Yds||YPC||RuTD||Rec||Target||Yds||RecTD||Tot Yds||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
|DEP||Tight Ends||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
|Defense||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Sack||Int||Fum Rec||Pts Allow||FP/%DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
|New England Patriots||IND||$3,200||$8,650||$4,900||7||1.8||1||0.9||27.9||2.188||0.809||1.429|
|Green Bay Packers||@SEA||$2,900||$8,400||$4,700||5.3||2.6||0.4||0.4||23.8||1.828||0.631||1.128|
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.