Week 11 DFS Cheat Sheet: FantasyDraft and Yahoo! (UPDATED)
November 20, 2016 | Ian Goldsmith
Welcome to Week 11 of the 2016 The Fake Football FantasyDraft and Yahoo! DFS Cheat Sheet!
. With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Doug Shain, Chet Gresham, and Justin Bales we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FantasyDraft and Yahoo!, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news. And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our a sheet from last season to see what you get.
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Cleveland/Pittsburgh, New York Giants/Chicago, and Washington/Packers all had their Vegas totals dropped due to windy weather. The Steelers/Browns game continues to have the highest winds, but the Giants/Bears game has west wind 22 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. I would downgrade their passing game. The Washington/Green Bay game is later so the wind will die down a bit, but will likely be stronger at the start of the game and could cause some trouble. I’m not as worried about this game with a forecast of mostly clear, with a low around 30. Breezy, with a west wind 14 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph.
There aren’t many important updates this morning. The split at running back for Seattle is still not easy to decipher, but C.J. Prosise looks likely to go into this game as the starter, but Thomas Rawls could take over ore work if he’s playing better. Prosise should still be fine with receptions either way though.
Both Rob Gronkowski and Chris Hogan are out this week against the 49ers. That will put a lot of players in play, like Danny Amendola and Malcolm Mitchell, but Martellus Bennett and Julian Edelman should see a boost and become extremely safe plays in a great matchup.
Todd Gurley popped up on the injury report with a thigh injury. This is the same thigh that was bothering him last week, so I expect he’ll be able to go and gets a good enough matchup to play him as usual.
Dez Bryant put in limited work on Friday due to a back problem. Beat reporters said he looked fine and should be able to go. Unless we hear differently, go ahead and play him as usual, especially with the Ravens Jimmy Smith doubtful.
Thomas Rawls isn’t listed on the injury report and will play. Reports have Rawls being eased back with C.J. Prosise getting more work. It does seem like the logical move, as Prosise looked good last week and Rawls has been injured off and on for a long while now.
DeSean Jackson is a game-time decision this week against the Packers. He hasn’t been doing much when playing, but he’s also had nagging injuries. Hopefully he’ll sit out, which would boost Washington’s other receivers in a good matchup. My favorite play is Jordan Reed after the Packers were torn apart by Delanie Walker last week.
Jeremy Maclin won’t play again this week with a groin injury. This will again open up target for Tyreek Hill, who caught 10-of-13 targets for 98 yards last week. I’ll be playing him at DraftKings this week due to their 1 point PPR scoring.
Larry Fitzgerald is no longer on the injury report. He gets a tough matchup, but he’ll once again be the top target for Carson Palmer this week.
Miami will be short a couple offensive linemen this week, with both Mike Pouncey and Branden Albert are out. This is bad news, especially against a strong Rams front four. Jay Ajayi should be downgraded and the Rams D/ST upgraded.
Lamar Miller was limited in practice this week, but will be a full go against the Raiders in Mexico City Monday night. He has seen his role reduced a bit lately. Alfred Blue is out for this game, so Akeem Hunt will be the backup and should get a decent amount of work.
Both Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz got full practices in on Friday and will start against the Seahawks. It’s a tough matchup, but both have been seeing the bulk of targets and should continue to be redraft plays.
Sample FantasyDraft Lineups
FantasyDraft Lineup Configurations
Let this be your weekly reminder that we are not trying to come in first place in a cash game, we are merely trying to finish in the top half of our tournaments. This means that we are going to worry a lot more about our floor than our ceiling. There are a lot of different directions we can take this week to hit our cash games and I’ve decided to go with moderately priced players across the board except at QB (Rodgers) and my RB1 (Murray). I wanted to go with both Murray and Elliott because of how well both of them have been playing, but I just couldn’t find a way to make the rest of my lineup work. I mean, I could use Elliott and Rashad Jennings, but I’d rather have Blount and Reed. I had to keep coming back to my reminder that I’m not trying to hit first place with these lineups. Overall, and you’ll see this theme in my GPP lineups as well, I find that there are a group of WR that are very underpriced this weekend and, as it turns out, all of them play well in cash. Guys like Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin are starting to come on strong right now and are priced like WR3 but playing like WR2. I’ll gladly take that value so I can pay up a little bit for target-hog Stefon Diggs. I love when my cash plays see a large amount of targets; it keeps that floor nice and high. I’m going with the double-TE strategy here because Bennett should give up no worse than WR3 numbers at WR5 prices, while Reed has WR2 upside in a game that should be a shootout. I’m using LeGarrette Blount because he’s facing the worst run defense in the league and he leads the NFL in touchdowns. He’s scored at least 1 TD in every game but one this year. I don’t chase TDs, but that kind of consistency is hard to ignore. Miami against Goff feels like a safe bet on defense at a punt price.
As I’ve been doing recently, I decided to narrow down the field of potential plays to those guys that I highlighted on this week’s Cheat Sheet. This allowed me to mix and match players that I felt strongly about while not deviating too much from what lead me to put those players on the sheet in the first place.
The more I think about configuring GPP lineups, the more I realize it’s about having a core group of players in just about every lineup (Tate, Baldwin, Bennett, Moncrief) and then finding different iterations of players at the remaining positions. You’ll see that I didn’t always include every one of my staple plays but most of them show up in most of my lineups. By using them consistently and then shifting the supporting cast, I’m increasing my potential to hit a big score if my core guys go off. The reason I picked those players as my core group is that I’m finding there is a lot of value out there with the pass catchers.
This week I had every intention to load up on big time WRs and find value at the RB position. That strategy pretty much flew straight out the window when I saw the prices on Bennett, Tate, Baldwin, and Moncrief. They are all outplaying their cost right now by so much that it’s crazy to me to not put them in my lineup and then build around a high end stack (NE, PIT, JAX, GB, WSH, SEA) with expensive RB. You’ll see that in two of my sample lineups I was able to fit in both Ezekiel Elliott and DeMarco Murray while still having enough money for WRs with upside and a good QB/WR(or TE) stack.
You’ll notice with my JAX and NE lineups I went higher end at WR and you’ll see what I had to do to make that happen. I had to use guys like Todd Gurley, Robert Kelley, and Brashad Perriman in order to be able to afford my top end WR. It’s not that I don’t like all of those guys–they are all in the cheat sheet–it’s just that I think using mid-range WRs as my core players and then surrounding them with a higher end stack and big boy RB gives me a much higher ceiling.
The one thing I will say for sure is that there really is no reason at all to pay up for a defense this week with Miami facing Jared Goff. I have little doubt that they are going to pressure him a great deal and force him into a lot of bad decisions. They have the talent on that defensive line to disrupt even the best of QB’s, so I am confident that the rookie is going to struggle. For the sake of comparison I made a couple of lineups with other defenses and you’ll see that I had to take a step down at other positions to make that happen. In the long run I ended up liking those lineups (I’d never submit a lineup to you that I wouldn’t play myself), but there is room to move around some other pieces if you were to pivot down to the Dolphins in both of those instances.
This week I had every intention to load up on big time WR and find value at the RB position. That strategy pretty much flew straight out the window when I saw the prices on Bennett, Tate, and Baldwin. They are all outplaying their cost right now that it’s crazy to me to not put them in my lineup and then build around a high end stack (NE, JAX, GB, SEA) with expensive RB. You’ll see that in a few of my lineups I was able to fit in a couple of high end RB (Johnson, Murray, or Bell) while still having enough money for WR with upside and a good QB/WR(or TE) stack.
You’ll notice with my JAX lineup I decided to go all in with high end WR and fill in with value that emerged at RB and TE. I love the dual threat ability of Prosise and I’m not worried about him being a chalk play. I find it very unlikely that those people who are using Prosise are doing so with the intention to go with OBJ, Evans, Brown, and ARob at WR. That differentiation should be enough to get me over the ownership hump.
Since I started making lineups on Tuesday, I’ve had a few changes of heart. The first one is that I’ve shifted my focus away from the Redskins (TE position excluded) and moved that exposure to the Packers. Apparently everyone had the same idea as I did to go heaving with WSH while leaving GB out there for people to jump on with a low ownership. The lack of production from Aaron Rodgers is being overstated, and I’m more than happy to stack him and Davante Adams (Jordy will be shadowed by Josh Norman) instead of using Cousins. I’ve also moved away from Pittsbugh a little bit with the expectation of heavy wind for that game. You’ll find traces of Steelers in almost every lineup but I’m not going to invest in Roethlisberger with the weather and potential ownership concerns. I’ve also shifted my RB focus to David Johnson and his shockingly low ownership. I know the matchup is tough, but he’s one of the three best players in fantasy and is totally matchup-proof in my mind.
Sample Yahoo! Lineups
Sunday 50/50 (Updated)
Sunday GPP (Updated)
Yahoo! Lineup Configurations
I started this line with a stack of Luck/Hilton/Moncrief. The Titans have struggled against the pass this season, and the Colts are projected to score a ton of points. This game should also stay close, which means Luck will be throwing from start to finish. I used Prosise and Meredith as salary relief options because they will have huge roles in their offenses, but come with low price tags. Parker is coming off a huge game, and he has great upside, although he does come with plenty of risk. Miller should also have an increased role with Jeffery out this week. Elliott has been outstanding this season, and he always makes an elite option. I ended with the Rams defense, who get a good matchup, and have displayed decent upside this season.
It was difficult to pay that amount of money for Mariota/Murray/Walker, but they have been on absolute fire recently, and they get another elite matchup this week. They are arguably the safest stack on the slate. I saved money at WR with Meredith, who will be the number one receiver with Jeffery suspended, and Patton, who has been playing a large role in the offense the the last few weeks. I also used Prosise, who is still cheap, but is now the starting running back in Seattle. Crowder has been an extremely consistent player recently, and he should be able to continue that with a good matchup against Green Bay. Nelson has been playing well recently, and he’s surprisingly cheap. He also gets a solid matchup, and should see plenty of targets. Last, the Cardinals defense fit into the lineup, and they are solid with a good matchup against the Vikings, who have one of the worst offenses in the NFL.
I started this lineup with a Rodgers/Adams stack, as they have been connecting as well as any QB/WR pair over the last few weeks. I added C.J. Prosise, who is the clear lead back for Seattle, but also catches a ton of passes. He’s a high upside option, and his price hasn’t quite caught up to his production yet. DeAndre Hopkins has been awful this season, but his price is entirely too low to be avoided in tournaments. He gets a good matchup, and he has good upside, as well. Moncrief has played well for the Colts when he hasn’t been hurt, and he gets an elite matchup against a terrible pass defense this week. Brate has looked good for the Bucs, and he’s a cheap tight end with touchdown potential. Robinson has really been heating up recently, and he gets a great matchup against the Lions, who will likely turn this game into a shootout. I added Blount, who will likely be running out the clock for nearly the entire second half of this game against a terrible 49ers run defense. Last, the Rams D/ST fit into the lineup, and they have good upside against the Dolphins offense this week.
Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters. As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience. To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. There are instructions on the first sheet. If you have any questions whatsoever about how to use the optimizer, or if it’s not working for you, e-mail me at firstname.lastname@example.org. I’ll do my best to get back to you right away. If you don’t have Excel 2010 or later, then shoot me an e-mail with constraints you want, and I’ll run it for you. Also, if you have any ideas for things you’d want to see included in future iterations of this, then I’d also love to hear about them! Thanks, and have fun!!
NOTES: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include. I, for one, don’t really like the Yahoo lineup…at all. You won’t see me rostering Kyle Rudolph, Jordan Matthews, nor the Tampa Bay DST anywhere. Again, remember to take out players you disagree with. Those are clearly three for me.
If you have any questions at all, shoot me an e-mail at email@example.com. Good luck this week!
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||FanDraf||Yahoo||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Defense Opp FanDraf Yahoo Off Points Sack Int Fum Rec DefTD RetTD FPPG
New England Patriots HOU $7,800 $20 16.9 2 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 8.4
Atlanta Falcons SEA $5,000 $16 21.6 2.6 0.8 0.4 0 0 6.2
Pittsburgh Steelers @KC $5,600 $13 22.2 2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 4.8
Dallas Cowboys GB $5,200 $12 27.0 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
Kansas City Chiefs PIT $6,700 $19 24.4 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0 3.9
Green Bay Packers @DAL $5,500 $13 26.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 0 0 3.2
Seattle Seahawks @ATL $5,900 $16 31.9 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 2.6
Houston Texans @NE $4,600 $10 27.2 1.5 0.1 0.6 0 0 2.5
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART
You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|