Week 10 DFS Cheat Sheet: UPDATE
November 9, 2014 | Chet
Welcome to Week 10 of The Fake Football DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Guru Rich Hribar, Ian Goldsmith and myself, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, Fantasy Elite and Draftday, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those four. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
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UPDATE: Martellus Bennett should be able to play tonight, but to be safe you may want to switch him out.
Sample FanDuel Lineups(by Rich Hribar)
FanDuel Lineup Configurations
Cash Lineup/Thursday Night
FanDuel has really tightened their belt this week as the player pricing is really right on top of each other in positional tiers. Only $700 (1.1 percent of your cap) separates WR40 from WR17 this week, making it almost a certainty you’re going to be taking on some form of risk in your safety lineups this somewhere. There are a plethora of high end running backs to pay for this week in cash games as well, so you’ll find yourself using chunks of cap space right away.
Just like last week, if Gio Bernard is out again, Jeremy Hill becomes as close to a must play across the board as there is. In a week as tight as this, it will be a blessing to gain the bit of cap space he provides. After him, it’s pretty much picking your poison at the top of the list. Since I’m conscious that there are really no cheap plays at receiver this week and I’ll have to pay in the ballpark of $7K at WR2 and WR3, I’m taking the discounted McCoy to go along with Hill. I would absolutely love to have Forte or Murray, but you’re essentially punting WR3 or tight end by taking one of them.
As with running back, the very top tier has some outstanding plays, and if you can work a team around Antonio Brown and Forte, by all means try to make it work. As mentioned, receiver pricing is really flat after the mid WR2 area through high WR4, so we have work to do. Julio Jones at his price is lock for me this week and he has some positive regression coming his way against the soft Tampa secondary that he bludgeoned in week 3. Here’s where things get sketchy, my targets this week are high volume players with touchdown upside. So while in a normal week Jackson and Benjamin would be better served as tournament options due to their variance, their volume gives them an advantage in cash games over their equally priced peers. Factoring in soft matchups for both, and I feel good about this group seeing somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 targets combined.
At tight end, I just can’t roll the dice on Miller’s floor, so I want to pay for the volume I know exists with Bennett. Bryant and the Arizona defense will be staples me across all games.
For Thursday Night, there’s nothing to be excited about on the Cleveland side. Andrew Hawkins is questionable and Jordan Cameron is doubtful, leaving the cupboard really bare. If you’re brave enough to roll out Taylor Gabriel in a tournament, power to you. The running backs have a great matchup on paper, but with the ambiguity of carry dispersal looming above the unit, as well as the struggles to run the ball period since Alex Mack’s injury, this offense is just plain avoidable.
Dalton was a mixed bag against the Jaguars last week, but had a touchdown taken off the board by an offsides on A.J. Green. With the way Mohamed Sanu has been playing, the return of Green makes Dalton an attractive play in soft matchups, but this is not one of them from a quarterback standpoint. The highest scoring week that the Browns have allowed has been QB12, and that was all the way back in week 1. Sanu is very much in play on Thursday, because whoever can find Buster Skrine the most, will likely also be finding the paint. Nibble on the receivers if you must, but I’ll be going into Thursday with Hill only if Bernard is inactive.
As I mentioned above, with receiver pricing being what it is, I view the volume of Benjamin and Jackson as elevating them to cash game usable this week, but their ceilings also make them in play for tournament play as normal. The rest is fairly simple, as I’m going in with a Falcons and Panthers stack at QB and WR in each tournament. One team I haven’t really mentioned down here is Pittsburgh, who faces a laughably poor secondary on the road after torching two teams that entered their matchup with the Steelers as being solid against the pass. The only reason I’m looking to Newton and Ryan over them is anticipated usage, but mix and match players to suit your needs. For the Steeler side, I’m taking two of the cheaper options for tourney play.
Sunday Early Only Lineup
These lineups have gotten the past four weeks really rolling downhill, so let’s keep it going in week 10. With Peyton and Rodgers out of the player pool, plug Big Ben into your lineup with ease. The Jets are the only team in the league to allow multiple touchdown passes in every game this season and will be starting Philip Adams and Marcus Williams at cornerback today. Plus, Roethlisberger has been pretty decent recently. At running back, I’m going with the volume powered DeMarco Murray and safe cash game Justin Forsett. Forsett may not find the end zone, but the touches will be there in a game with Baltimore heavy favorites and predicted by Vegas lines to flirt with 30 points. At receiver, Julio Jones is the lead receiver of choice for reasons stated in the play portion of the cheat sheet. He’s ready to get back on track in A plus matchup and he’s available at a discount. At the other two slots, you can mix and match some of your favorite guys in $6,500 range, but my preferred guys are Brandin Cooks, who has been a top 24 scorer in every game at home this season, and Eric Decker, who has double digit targets in three of his past four games and is the top red zone option for the Jets. Early tight ends are really ugly if you’re not paying up Jimmy Graham, and the way the roster shakes out, I prefer to go with cheap play like Owen Daniels. Daniels received nine targets in his return last week, and while he may not possess a high ceiling, the targets and attachment to a team expected to score a lot of points today are there. At the special teams slots, the Chiefs sack machine (first in the league in sack rate) gets the most sacked quarterback over the past month. Fire them up along with Matt Bryant at kicker.
Sample DraftDay Lineups (by Chet Gresham)
DraftDay Lineup Configurations
Tourney Lineup: The Steelers will be without Shazier and Polamalu so I’m feeling better about Vick this week than last when he faced KC’s tough defense. The Steelers are also coming off a prime time matchup with their rivals. There’s a good chance this is a let down games, especially for the defense. Sanchez should be fine with the strong offensive players on the Eagles and he looked more than competent in relief of Foles, who has had some decent games this season in that offense while also playing poorly. I’m liking Hillman against the Raiders in a game that could get out of hand. Lacy has a ton of upside and we saw what he can do in the receiving game last week. Starks is the only worry and why he’s in a tourney lineup. Alshon Jeffery has been outscoring Marshall fairly regularly and this game has the highest over/iunder of the day. For his price I like his tourney upside. Calvin Johnson practiced on Monday and all systems look to be go for him to start and to play all snaps. Miami isn’t an easy opponent, but for his price he’s almost a must play. I could see fading him in a tourney, but his upside is so huge that I can’t do it for the price. Julius Thomas is a little bit of a boom or bust play, but that’s what we are looking for in a tourney. You know how quickly he can rack up TDs. I’m loving Julio in tourneys with the Falcons having the bye to try to get things on the right track and then playing one of the worst passing Ds in the league. Davante Adams will be a staple for me this week at this price. This should be a high scoring game and Adams is squarely in the thick of things in this offense now. The Ravens are my favorite defense on DD this week. They are at home where they thrive and are taking on Zach Mettenberger who did not look sharp in his debut. I expect him to improve, but the Ravens aren’t the team to do that with.
Cash Lineups: I’m going as safe as I can at QB here. There are so many good value plays this week that I was even able to put the top two QBs for the week in a lineup with Manning and Rodgers. In my other lineup I dropped down to Palmer, who has been rock steady. I’m loving LeSean McCoy at his price. He has played well of late and gets a nice matchup with the Panthers. Plus with Sanchez in, we could see the m lean on McCoy. Jeremy Hill will be almost impossible to pass on if Bernard doesn’t play. The Browns run defense has been putrid. Denard Robinson also makes for a high floor play at a dirt cheap price, especially against the Cowboys, who have played good overall D, but still get gashed by the run. Percy Harvin had 13 targets last week and caught 11 of them against a good KC defense. With no Shazier or Polamalu they’ll have trouble covering him and if the Steelers pass like they should be able to against the Jets, they’ll be in hurry mode and Harvin could be the main underneath target. Brandon Marshall is coming off the bye and I just don’t know how he can continue to not produce and at this price I’m willing to risk to find out. I am somewhat worried about Charles Sims, but Rainey gets a great matchup against the Falcons and is still cheap cheap cheap. I’ll take that risk as well.
I still feel pretty good about my original thinking on DraftDay this week so the updated lineup is mostly updated with Ben Roethlisberger who I wanted to get more exposure too.
Sample Draftkings Lineups (by Ian Goldsmith)
Draftkings Lineup Configurations
I never trust Mark Sanchez. Never. That being said, he gets to general an Eagles’ team that is built to score. He should have no trouble throwing for at least a couple of TDs against a weak Carolina secondary (unless McCoy goes off). Forsett has been taking a very high percentage of reps. The starting RB position is clearly his in Baltimore and he is running with it. His matchup this week sets up well for a breakout game. At only $5100, he offers great multiple potential. If you are going to use players from Thursday’s game, then Jeremy Hill is still worth using at only $5900 against a Cleveland Browns team that has been taken apart by RBs all season long. His teammate A.J. Green will be one more game removed from injury, which makes me more confident to use him. It’s not the greatest matchup in the world, but Green is the type of top-end receiver that can overcome matchups with one big play. Jones and Marshall are a steal at their current prices. Both are coming off of bye weeks and will be ready to assert their #1 WR status. Graham has historically not done well against San Francisco, but I can never count him out no matter the matchup. If SF decides to focus on stopping him, then Brees will torch them another way. The Saints are undefeated at home and I project Graham to be a big part of that. His price is low and his talent is sky high. The Saints may seem a bit of a reach, but they have been performing well the past two weeks. They are finally living up to their potential and face a 49ers team whose reputation is louder than reality. St. Louis was able to go into SF and hold the Niners to 10 points. The Saints’ pass rush will be in Kaepernick’s face all day long, which could force him into a few mistakes.
Want safety? I’ll give you safety. Big Ben has been lights out, obviously, but his price has not jumped to match his recent production. He gets to face a Jets team that cannot stop anybody in the passing game. Pair him with Antonio Brown and your lineup will be on very solid ground. Lynch has another great matchup this week against the Giants, one week after coming back into fantasy relevance with a stomping of the Raiders. Kelvin Benjamin gets a chance to light up Philly this week. Benjamin has not looked nearly as consistent as he did starting the season and his price has dropped accordingly. At only $4200, you should look to add him into a couple of tournaments. His price opens up players like the aforementioned Brown and Lynch. In this matchup, his upside is huge. A side note: Jerico Cotchery is only $3000 and was the Panthers’ leading receiver (in yards) in last week’s game against the Saints. The Eagles are often worse against WR2s than WR1s, so Cotchery could be a REALLY sneaky play for minimum price. Martellus Bennett destroyed the Packers earlier this season. He has been consistent and his price fits in well here. Green Bay cannot stop all of Chicacgo’s weapons, so he should see plenty of single coverage, which he can easily exploit with his size and maneuverability.
Matt Ryan has been frustratingly inconsistent this season. Whatever the reason, fantasy owners have not been able to trust him. He’s in a good spot this week, however, to come back into fantasy relevance against a Tampa Bay team he dismantled earlier in the season. In that game, his huge potential was limited by the Falcons’ defense and Devin Hester. Atlanta should not have as easy a go as last time, which means that Ryan will have more attempts to throw downfield to Julio Jones, who is also in need of another big game. He’s a clear #1 WR, but has not been performing as such in the fantasy sense. He will be on many of my teams this week. Because these two are priced so low, there is room to add a lot of talent. Hillman has been very consistent since taking over for Ball and gets a juicy matchup. This week sets up nicely for McCoy to finally break out. His offensive line is finally coming together and the Panthers have not been able to stop the run. Torrey Smith for $3500? Are you kidding me? Mychal Rivera has quietly caught 15 passes over the past two games. Take a flier on him again in tournaments at his low price. Can you believe Nelson, Cobb and Julio are all able to fit in the same lineup? Neither am I….But these are the types of lineups that are possible with this week’s pricing.
With everyone and their mother going for the Big Ben/Antonio Brown combo this week, it is nice to try another option. My favorite cheaper play this week is Matt Ryan. Coming off the bye, Ryan will look to turn the Falcons’ season around against a Tampa Bay team that they absolutely throttled the last time around. Now, this isn’t a sure thing as Ryan has looked rather pedestrian the past few weeks, but I project that he turns it around. Pairing him with Julio Jones (who is only $6600) could pay dividends. If you want to reach, go with the Mark Sanchez play at only $5400.
There are quite a few running backs I love this week, but no one excites me as much as DeMarco Murray. After a tough week last week (his first under 100 yards), he will bounce back in a HUGE way against Jacksonville. I think he is going to flirt with 200 yards from scrimmage. The Jags have nobody to stop him and with Romo under center, they won’t be able to stack the box like the Cardinals did last week against Weeden. Bobby Rainey is a great play at only $4400. I think the Charles Sims fears are overblown, at least for this week.
Antonio Brown is a must, even if you don’t use Big Ben. He has thirty catches in the past three games. THIRTY! That’s borderline insane. Ben can look elsewhere, but why would he when his #1 catches everything? For cheap plays, I am a big fan of Jerricho Cotchery in tournaments. Everyone else will be on his teammate (and superior WR) Kelvin Benjamin. He’s a risk, but I think he gets his first TD of the season this week.
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
If the Matchup Machine isn’t sortable for you, here are the same stats in Excel that are sortable: Week 10 Sortable Matchup Stats
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
|DEP||Running Backs||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Att||Yds||YPC||RuTD||Rec||Target||Yds||RecTD||Tot Yds||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
|DEP||Tight Ends||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
|Defense||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Sack||Int||Fum Rec||Pts Allow||FP/%DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
|New England Patriots||IND||$3,200||$8,650||$4,900||7||1.8||1||0.9||27.9||2.188||0.809||1.429|
|Green Bay Packers||@SEA||$2,900||$8,400||$4,700||5.3||2.6||0.4||0.4||23.8||1.828||0.631||1.128|
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.