Week 10 DFS Cheat Sheet: FantasyDraft and Yahoo! (UPDATED)
November 12, 2016 | Ian Goldsmith
Welcome to Week 10 of the 2016 The Fake Football FantasyDraft and Yahoo! DFS Cheat Sheet!
. With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Doug Shain, Chet Gresham, and Justin Bales we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FantasyDraft and Yahoo!, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news. And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our a sheet from last season to see what you get.
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Cheat Sheet (UPDATED)
Sunday Morning Update:
Bryce Petty will start instead of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Downgrade Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa and upgrade the Rams D/ST.
DeSean Jackson is expected to be out. Jamison Crowder should see a bump in work and Captain Munnerlyn is out for the Vikings.
James Starks is a real game-time decision. He should still end up playing, but will likely be eased back in. Ty Montgomery could easily still have value this week.
The Texans aren’t optimistic that Will Fuller will play. The Jags make for a cheap D/ST play this week.
Doug Martin will be limited in his return this week. Peyton Barber and Mike James will also see work, with Barber ahead of James. It makes for a risky situation all around.
Adam Schefter says DuJuan Harris “have a role carved out” for today’s game against the Cardinals, but Carlos Hyde will play. Expect this to be a fluid situation.
Todd Gurley is expected to play in a tough matchup against the Jets.
Christine Michael is expected to play. C.J. Prosise will continue to get work in the passing game and limit CMike’s upside.
Allen Hurns is expected to play. This hurts Marqise Lee’s sleeper status.
Doug Martin appears likely to suit up this week against the Bears, but should be on a snap count. Jacquizz Rodgers is out, so that would leave Peyton Barber with more work than usual, but also makes for a tough call for fantasy. I think both Martin and Barber can be used, but lower expectations.
Christine Michael is questionable after suffering a hamstring injury in practice this week. That should push C.J. Prosise to a more prominent role and if Michael were to miss all together, Prosise would become a good play even against a decent Patriots defense. Even if Michael does play, Prosise has appeal in PPR leagues, as the Patriots offense should be good enough to keep Seattle in pass mode.
Carlos Hyde says there is a good chance he’ll play against Arizona this week. Hyde was able to test his shoulder out on a blocking sled Friday and he seems confident it will hold up. DuJuan Harris has played well enough to have earned some more looks and Hyde could be eased back some, especially against the Cardinals tough defense, but both will have their upside’s limited this week.
DeSean Jackson is listed as doubtful. Coach Gruden hasn’t completely ruled him out, but you might as well for your fantasy team. His absence would be helpful to Jamison Crowder, Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed, but the matchup is still tough against the Vikings.
Hunter Henry should return this week and could hurt Antonio Gates upside, which is already extremely touchdown dependent. Both actually have some appeal with Travis Benjamin out this week, but more for redraft than DFS.
Chris Hogan’s back flared up on Thursday and he was in quite a bit of pain. He’ll likely be a game-time decision, but unless we hear news that he’s 100 percent, I’d avoid him. Julian Edelman and Martellus Bennett will see more targets if he ends up not playing.
Victor Cruz hasn’t practiced this week and is unlikely to play. Roger Lewis would get his start, while Sterling Shepard and Will Tye could see an increase in usage.
Dion Lewis has been activated from the PUP list, but is still behind James White and will be eased back. He shouldn’t make an impact this week against Seattle.
DeMarco Murray is off the injury report and will be a full go against the Packers. His usage and ability make him a good start every week, but the Packers run defense could limit him overall.
James Starks looks as though he will play, but he likely will be on a snap count his first week back.
Randall Cobb is no longer on the injury report and will be a full go against the Tennessee Titans. Ty Montgomery’s snaps and workload with Cobb a full go and James Starks possibly back, are going to take a hit.
Jarvis Landry returned to a limited practice on Friday after missing Thursday’s practice and looks as if he’ll give it a go with a sore shoulder. With the injury and the more run–focused offense, Landry’s upside takes a hit this week.
J.J. Nelson is now the Cardinal’s No. 2 receiver, moving ahead of John Brown and Michael Floyd according to coach Bruce Arians. The Cardinals spread the ball around enough that any receiver can be left out, but this promotion and the recent play by Nelson, coupled with his price in DFS, makes him a nice pick this week.
Todd Gurley returned to practice on Friday and said he felt good. His thigh injury doesn’t look like it will keep him out, but the matchup coupled with the injury is worrisome for his fantasy value.
Lamar Miller got a full practice in on Friday and appears to be ready to go against the Jaguars. He has some sneaky DFS appeal in a good matchup.
Will Fuller is listed as questionable and looks like he’ll play, but the matchup isn’t great. He may not be 100 percent and Brock Osweiler has not been good.
Travis Benjamin is listed as doubtful after missing practice this week, while Tyrell Williams was able to practice Thursday and Friday and will play. Williams will be the No. 1 receiver in this one while Dontrelle Inman will move from the slot to the outside. Both have DFS appeal, but Williams has the most upside.
Ben Roethlisberger has been taken off the injury report and gets a home game against Dallas. Roethlisberger has been extremely good at home over the last two and a half seasons and now that he appears healthy and looked good in the fourth quarter in Baltimore last week, he should be a good DFS play, along with Antonio Brown, Eli Rogers and in GPPs, Sammie Coates. Both Darrius Heyward-Bey and Markus Wheaton are out this week.
Jeremy Maclin won’t play this week due to an injured groin. The Panthers can be beat through the air, so Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill get the biggest fantasy bumps in my mind. Kelce should be a decent cash game play in this one.
Russell Shepard is out against the Bears. Adam Humphries and Cameron Brate get a slight bump.
Tevin Coleman is out for Week 10. Devonta Freeman will get the start and bulk of the work again. The Eagles defense has shown cracks lately and the Falcons will take their top offense to Philadelphia. Freeman has high upside in this one.
Mike Evans is 100 percent ready to go following his concussion. His target share is great in any matchup.
Allen Hurns is questionable this week due to a concussion. If he is cleared before the game he likely will play, but that has yet to be seen. If he can’t go, Marqise Lee gets a nice bump.
Vikings cornerback Captain Munnerlyn is out. Jamison Crowder should have a little easier time of it in the slot.
Kam Chancellor will start this week and should give the Seahawks pass defense a nice boost against the red hot Patriots.
Sample FantasyDraft Lineups
FantasyDraft Lineup Configurations
Let this be your weekly reminder that we are not trying to come in first place in a cash game, we are merely trying to finish in the top half of our tournaments. This means that we are going to worry a lot more about our floor than our ceiling (no J.J. Nelson for us). There are two QB’s that I was debating for my cash game play (Ben and Cam), and I settled in on Ben because I just like that Steelers’ offense that much better. Newton is the same price so if you feel compelled to go with him I’m OK with that. I wanted to make sure I locked in solid production from my RB spot so I went ahead and grabbed David Johnson and Jay Ajayi. Both have been playing great and they have the two best RB matchups for Week 10. Everyone is going to own them, but I really don’t care about that in a cash game. The more the merrier. I went after some cheap target hogs for my WR in Thomas, Beasley, and Matthews. None of them are sexy picks but all should have a floor of 5-60 with some wiggle room for upside. Matthews is especially appealing to me with a great matchup against ATL and 25 total targets over his last two weeks. Those targets are going to turn into catches against a bad Falcons secondary. I needed a cheap TE this week and Antonio Gates was sitting right there. He’s got a very realistic shot to match the production I get from Beasley for 75% of the cost. I had a similar thought when I used Jordan Reed as he’s priced similarly to guys like Edelman, Cobb, Diggs, and Bladwin, and I’d rather have Reed than any of them; WR2 production at WR3 prices. The Jets face the Rams and are cheap. That’s a great combination when I don’t have a lot left to spend on a defense.
As the season has worn on, I’ve found myself limiting my GPP plays to a smaller and smaller number of players and just mixing and matching those guys with different QB/WR stacks. That strategy has been working nicely as my lineups have consistently been cashing GPP’s. This isn’t being written to brag but more to show that what I’m doing is working and a justification for continuing to use the process (always trust the process). This week my four big QB/WR combos were Palmer/Nelson, Ben/AB, Mariota/Matthews, and Cutler/Jeffery. Only one of these pairings is particularly pricey and that was done very purposefully. I love the matchups for top end RB this weekend, and I want to make sure I get 3 to 4 of them in as many lineups as I can. You’ll notice that the one lineup I didn’t do that with is the expensive duo of Roethlisberger/Brown. I think defense and TE are a hot mess this weekend so I limited my choices even further than I normally would. On defense it was ARI (if I could afford to pay up) or NYJ (if I needed to save money). For TE my choices were Gates, Fiedorowicz, or Brate. I see no reason to pay up for TE this weekend at the risk of not being able to afford my three to four high end RB. You will also notice that I limited my big spending on WR to players I was stacking (Antonio Brown and Alshon Jeffery). Otherwise I’m all about value with J.J. Nelson, Rishard Matthews, John Brown, and Jordan Matthews as my plays. Like I said, I have a very limited roster of players I’m pulling from this weekend in order to use the strategy I see as the best course of action in Week 10. The big RB that I wanted to mix and match this week are David Johnson, Jay Ajayi, Melvin Gordon, DeMarco Murray, Lamar Miller, Ezekiel Elliott, and Mark Ingram. You’ll notice that I didn’t include Le’Veon Bell in any of my sample lineups, but I’d be OK to use him instead of Elliott if you felt strongly about that. Basically what we are shooting for is a QB/WR stack, a cheap TE, cheap WR, four high end RB, and either the Cardinals or Jets Defense.
Sunday GPP UPDATE
While this lineup doesn’t replace my earlier lineups (I love the the Mariota and Cutler lineups like they were my children), it is another look at how we can use our (expanded) roster of players to take advantage of some of the ownership data we have from Thursday. Cam, Olsen, and Elliott are pretty low-owned relative to their upside, and that makes them very intriguing GPP options this weekend. As you can see, I went full-on punt at WR with Rogers and Wilson. I don’t expect either of them to score 30 fantasy point, but if they can both go in the 5-60 range this weekend then we could really be in business. Add in a TD or any additional productivity and the sky is the limit. With Markus Wheaton, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Jeremy Maclin all out that leaves a lot of targets for Rogers and Wilson to find. Also, look at those RB. Those are some ooey-gooey yummy RB. As it was with my original set of lineups, it was Jets or Cardinals at defense for me and that Jets were the team that fit here.
If you wanted to get some Saints action and still not mess with this lineup too much, you can replace Newton/Olsen/Rogers/RB with Brees/cheap TE/Thomas/mid-range RB (Lamar Miller/Devonta Freeman).
Sample Yahoo! Lineups
Sunday 50/50 (Updated)
Note: Doug Martin and Carlos Hyde are both questionable. Hyde’s status should be known before the game, while Martin will be a GTD. Keep an eye on them, as Barber and Harris will lose value if they are playing.
Sunday GPP (Updated)
Yahoo! Lineup Configurations
I started this lineup with a three man stack of the Steelers, who are 3 point favorites in a game set at 49.5 points. It’s an extremely high total, and they should have no problems scoring a ton of points this week. Miller and Hopkins haven’t been playing all that well this season, but they both have tremendous upside with fairly low price tags for their talent. Patton, Lee, and Kendricks were all salary relief options. Each one has plenty of upside, especially for their prices, which is what allows us to get the Steelers stack. Last, the Redskins defense fit into the lineup, and they get a great matchup against the Vikings, who have one of the worst offenses in the NFL this season.
This lineup began with a three man stack of the Bucs, who have looked outstanding recently and gets a great matchup against the Bears. Rodgers and Martin are both dealing with injuries, and it looks like Barber will be the lead back again this week, although that may change later in the week. Harris is another back that is in line for the start right now, but it could change later in the week. Adams and Beasley have both been playing extremely well recently, and they both get great matchups this week. Fiedorowicz has been playing surprisingly well this season, and he’s cheap enough to be used in cash games. Murray seems risky because he gets a terrible matchup against a tough Green Bay defense, but Murray scores fantasy points in multiple different ways, and shouldn’t have a problem playing well again this week. Again, the Redskins defense rounded out the team, as they are a solid, cheap option.
This Saints should be a low owned stack this week because of the matchup against the Broncos, but they get a great Vegas line. They are 1 point favorites in a game set at 48 points. They have an offense that can score on anyone, which is why I used a QB/2WR stack. I spent up at running back with Ajayi and Elliott because they both have looked elite recently, and have tremendous upside. Patton, Kendricks, and Harris were three salary relief options who all have great upside, but, more importantly, allow the rest of the team to fill out with high priced options. I opted to use the Falcons defense, which gets a decent matchup and has been sacking the quarterback at an elite rate recently.
Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters. As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience. To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. There are instructions on the first sheet. If you have any questions whatsoever about how to use the optimizer, or if it’s not working for you, e-mail me at firstname.lastname@example.org. I’ll do my best to get back to you right away. If you don’t have Excel 2010 or later, then shoot me an e-mail with constraints you want, and I’ll run it for you. Also, if you have any ideas for things you’d want to see included in future iterations of this, then I’d also love to hear about them! Thanks, and have fun!!
NOTES: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include.
If you have any questions at all, shoot me an e-mail at email@example.com. Good luck this week!
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||FanDraf||Yahoo||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Defense Opp FanDraf Yahoo Off Points Sack Int Fum Rec DefTD RetTD FPPG
New England Patriots HOU $7,800 $20 16.9 2 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 8.4
Atlanta Falcons SEA $5,000 $16 21.6 2.6 0.8 0.4 0 0 6.2
Pittsburgh Steelers @KC $5,600 $13 22.2 2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 4.8
Dallas Cowboys GB $5,200 $12 27.0 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
Kansas City Chiefs PIT $6,700 $19 24.4 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0 3.9
Green Bay Packers @DAL $5,500 $13 26.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 0 0 3.2
Seattle Seahawks @ATL $5,900 $16 31.9 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 2.6
Houston Texans @NE $4,600 $10 27.2 1.5 0.1 0.6 0 0 2.5
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART
You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|