Week 10 DFS Cheat Sheet: FanDuel and DraftKings (UPDATED)
November 12, 2016 | Ian Goldsmith
Welcome to Week 10 of the 2016 The Fake Football FanDuel and DraftKings DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Ian Goldsmith and Chet Gresham, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel and Draftkings, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
PLUS! Ian Goldsmith’s DFS Optimizer will be added to the sheets this season! It will go LIVE every Friday!
Check out our a sheet from last season to see what you get.
Get in on the Week 1 DraftKings Freeroll! $100K in Prizes!
Join Yahoo’s Yearly DFS League for FREE in the Yahoo Cup Freeroll!
Sunday Morning Update:
Bryce Petty will start instead of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Downgrade Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa and upgrade the Rams D/ST.
DeSean Jackson is expected to be out. Jamison Crowder should see a bump in work and Captain Munnerlyn is out for the Vikings.
James Starks is a real game-time decision. He should still end up playing, but will likely be eased back in. Ty Montgomery could easily still have value this week.
The Texans aren’t optimistic that Will Fuller will play. The Jags make for a cheap D/ST play this week.
Doug Martin will be limited in his return this week. Peyton Barber and Mike James will also see work, with Barber ahead of James. It makes for a risky situation all around.
Adam Schefter says DuJuan Harris “have a role carved out” for today’s game against the Cardinals, but Carlos Hyde will play. Expect this to be a fluid situation.
Todd Gurley is expected to play in a tough matchup against the Jets.
Christine Michael is expected to play. C.J. Prosise will continue to get work in the passing game and limit CMike’s upside.
Allen Hurns is expected to play. This hurts Marqise Lee’s sleeper status.
Doug Martin appears likely to suit up this week against the Bears, but should be on a snap count. Jacquizz Rodgers is out, so that would leave Peyton Barber with more work than usual, but also makes for a tough call for fantasy. I think both Martin and Barber can be used, but lower expectations.
Christine Michael is questionable after suffering a hamstring injury in practice this week. That should push C.J. Prosise to a more prominent role and if Michael were to miss all together, Prosise would become a good play even against a decent Patriots defense. Even if Michael does play, Prosise has appeal in PPR leagues, as the Patriots offense should be good enough to keep Seattle in pass mode.
Carlos Hyde says there is a good chance he’ll play against Arizona this week. Hyde was able to test his shoulder out on a blocking sled Friday and he seems confident it will hold up. DuJuan Harris has played well enough to have earned some more looks and Hyde could be eased back some, especially against the Cardinals tough defense, but both will have their upside’s limited this week.
DeSean Jackson is listed as doubtful. Coach Gruden hasn’t completely ruled him out, but you might as well for your fantasy team. His absence would be helpful to Jamison Crowder, Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed, but the matchup is still tough against the Vikings.
Hunter Henry should return this week and could hurt Antonio Gates upside, which is already extremely touchdown dependent. Both actually have some appeal with Travis Benjamin out this week, but more for redraft than DFS.
Chris Hogan’s back flared up on Thursday and he was in quite a bit of pain. He’ll likely be a game-time decision, but unless we hear news that he’s 100 percent, I’d avoid him. Julian Edelman and Martellus Bennett will see more targets if he ends up not playing.
Victor Cruz hasn’t practiced this week and is unlikely to play. Roger Lewis would get his start, while Sterling Shepard and Will Tye could see an increase in usage.
Dion Lewis has been activated from the PUP list, but is still behind James White and will be eased back. He shouldn’t make an impact this week against Seattle.
DeMarco Murray is off the injury report and will be a full go against the Packers. His usage and ability make him a good start every week, but the Packers run defense could limit him overall.
James Starks looks as though he will play, but he likely will be on a snap count his first week back.
Randall Cobb is no longer on the injury report and will be a full go against the Tennessee Titans. Ty Montgomery’s snaps and workload with Cobb a full go and James Starks possibly back, are going to take a hit.
Jarvis Landry returned to a limited practice on Friday after missing Thursday’s practice and looks as if he’ll give it a go with a sore shoulder. With the injury and the more run–focused offense, Landry’s upside takes a hit this week.
J.J. Nelson is now the Cardinal’s No. 2 receiver, moving ahead of John Brown and Michael Floyd according to coach Bruce Arians. The Cardinals spread the ball around enough that any receiver can be left out, but this promotion and the recent play by Nelson, coupled with his price in DFS, makes him a nice pick this week.
Todd Gurley returned to practice on Friday and said he felt good. His thigh injury doesn’t look like it will keep him out, but the matchup coupled with the injury is worrisome for his fantasy value.
Lamar Miller got a full practice in on Friday and appears to be ready to go against the Jaguars. He has some sneaky DFS appeal in a good matchup.
Will Fuller is listed as questionable and looks like he’ll play, but the matchup isn’t great. He may not be 100 percent and Brock Osweiler has not been good.
Travis Benjamin is listed as doubtful after missing practice this week, while Tyrell Williams was able to practice Thursday and Friday and will play. Williams will be the No. 1 receiver in this one while Dontrelle Inman will move from the slot to the outside. Both have DFS appeal, but Williams has the most upside.
Ben Roethlisberger has been taken off the injury report and gets a home game against Dallas. Roethlisberger has been extremely good at home over the last two and a half seasons and now that he appears healthy and looked good in the fourth quarter in Baltimore last week, he should be a good DFS play, along with Antonio Brown, Eli Rogers and in GPPs, Sammie Coates. Both Darrius Heyward-Bey and Markus Wheaton are out this week.
Jeremy Maclin won’t play this week due to an injured groin. The Panthers can be beat through the air, so Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill get the biggest fantasy bumps in my mind. Kelce should be a decent cash game play in this one.
Russell Shepard is out against the Bears. Adam Humphries and Cameron Brate get a slight bump.
Tevin Coleman is out for Week 10. Devonta Freeman will get the start and bulk of the work again. The Eagles defense has shown cracks lately and the Falcons will take their top offense to Philadelphia. Freeman has high upside in this one.
Mike Evans is 100 percent ready to go following his concussion. His target share is great in any matchup.
Allen Hurns is questionable this week due to a concussion. If he is cleared before the game he likely will play, but that has yet to be seen. If he can’t go, Marqise Lee gets a nice bump.
Vikings cornerback Captain Munnerlyn is out. Jamison Crowder should have a little easier time of it in the slot.
Kam Chancellor will start this week and should give the Seahawks pass defense a nice boost against the red hot Patriots.
Sample FanDuel Lineups
I always build cash lineups based on two things: usage and consistency. On half PPR sites like FanDuel, this is even more heightened as you can’t just rely on catches to secure you a decent floor. This makes it harder for expensive WRs to actually hit value consistently. Fortunately, FanDuel has helped us out this week by offering us a top-notch WR at a killer price. Antonio Brown is only $8,600, which is a steal for what he brings to the table. Given Big Ben has had another week to heal and Dallas’ secondary is missing two of its best players, Ben and AB could feast. He’s only had two games all season with fewer than 11 targets. I’m very happy using him this week.
Though I used AB, this lineup was really built around David Johnson. The #1 fantasy RB gets a dream matchup with the San Francisco 49ers’ rush D, which has redefined futility. They have given up a mind-blowing 1,386 yards to RBs in 8 games on only 253 carries, which equates to a ridiculous 5.48 yards per carry. It is not hyperbole when I think 150 yards and 2 TDs is his floor this week. The only thing I could see holding him back is if Arizona gets up by 30 at the half, though he could have already exceeded value at that point. That being said, Arians loves to play his studs, and the Cardinals could use a massive statement win given that they are in danger of missing the playoffs at 3-4-1. I’ve teamed him with DeMarco Murray who is having a resurgent year, which has been refreshing to see. Green Bay is not as good against the run as their numbers would make it seem. Murray may not find a ton of yardage, but he should likely find the end zone against a Packers team that has seen an RB tally 2 scores in each of the past two weeks.
I’ve teamed him here with Mariota, who has been on fire the past month and a half. For some reason, sites aren’t raising his price to match his stellar play. He’s scored at least 27 FP in three of his past five games, and hasn’t fallen below 16 FP in that span, which is still high enough to hit value. Crowder, Tyrell Williams, and Antonio Gates all enter the fold here as they have all been consistent target hogs. Williams has finished in the top 15 WR rankings in each of his past three games against opponents not named the Broncos. Houston, who gets to face INT machine Blake Bortles, slots in at defense and is only $4,700, which is a nice salary relief. I never pay up for kickers, and why should I when I can get Nick Novak at minimum salary? He’s scored at least 7 FP in every game and gets a matchup against the Jags, who have given up the most FP against kickers this year.
This lineup has a few similar pieces, which I won’t rehash. That being said, the QB stack is very different as I’ve moved to Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery. What a difference a QB can make to a star WR. With Hoyer at the helm, targets were consistently going to the WR2 and WR3 in Chicago, but no more. Cutler has his favorite in AJ, and it is evident. In a dream matchup against the woeful Bucs, this tandem should thrive.
Zeke Elliott can run on anybody; it was he who exposed the previously #1 ranked Green Bay run defense, gashing them for 157 yards a few weeks ago. The Steelers are 4th worst against the run, which is uncharacteristic. They did get Cam Heyward back from injury last week, which helped to shore up some weaknesses, but I see no reason why Elliott can’t do his thing again. Can he be stopped? He is more of a GPP play for me this week as I’d rather have Ajayi or Murray in cash. Stefon Diggs is another target hog, which showed the past two weeks when he saw 27 targets. Yowzas! Washington is beatable, and Bradford should look his way often again.
Not a lot of changes here. In fact, the only moves were going from Antonio Brown to Stefon Diggs and Antonio Gates to Rob Gronkowski. Seattle certainly has a formidable defense, but the Patriots are playing angry football and destroying their opponents one by one. Last time Gronk played the Hawks was in the Superb Owl, where he got a solid 6/68/1 line, which is easily in reach today, especially with Michael Bennett still out for Seattle. If Brady isn’t hurried, then Seattle could be torn apart just like any other number of teams at the feet of the GOAT QB. Stefon Diggs has 27 targets in the past two weeks. 27!! That’s just silly. He’s caught 21 of those for 156 yards and a score. Look for Bradford to target him heavily again. I like him on DraftKings much better, but at this price, he’s definitely in play on FanDuel.
Big Ben is just a different QB at home. With Dallas playing without their top two defensive backs, he should easily tear the Cowboys apart in what should be a shootout (now watch the final score be 6-3). I’m paired him with Antonio Brown here, who is also much better at home than away. JJ Nelson slots into a WR spot for only $5,600, and Zach Ertz fills in at TE for the insanely low price of $4,600. While his season started very slowly, I’m encouraged by the 8 targets (catching all of them) he got last week. The coaches have said that they want to use him more in the red zone as well, and if he catches a TD, he’s already more or less paid off his salary.
Sample DraftKings Lineups
DraftKings Lineup Configurations
Please see the FanDuel blurbs for most of these players. One new player here who is a must at his price is Jay Ajayi, who has been an absolute revelation the past three weeks for the Dolphins. The only other change in this lineup from the players above is Delanie Walker, who is consistently one of Mariota’s favorite targets, though for upside, Rishard Matthews has seen a lot more action in the red zone. Note: Mariota’s pricing here is an absolute steal. It seems that DraftKings sometimes does this on purpose to encourage use of a player. What other reason is there for his not being at least $6,500 to $7,000? He is a threat every week for 30 FP.
A few differences here. I once again stack Cutler and Jeffery, but also add on Zach Miller to the stack. Cutler looked his way often last week en route to a 7/88 line on 10 targets. Zach Ertz has been disappointing, but did catch 8 of 8 targets last week, which was encouraging. Going into a matchup against the woeful Atlanta defense, his upside is a legit 15-20 FP. I won’t be rostering him in cash games, but I’m all aboard the Ertz train in tournaments. Jordy Nelson is finally back on track with Aaron Rodgers, and is one again a solid play. Jeff Fisher says he wants to get more carries to Gurley. Well, I’m taking him at his word this week and taking a chance on the stud RB, even in a difficult matchup.
I’m locked in on Mariota and Cutler. For the pricing, there is simply not better upside that those two. Feel free to use other QBs, but I’m not going to (on DraftKings at least). DJ and Ajayi remain staples of these lineups once again. They are simply too good (who knew I’d be writing that about Ajayi this time of year?). I fit Le’Veon into the cash lineup as well, which meant I had to go somewhat cheaper at WR. Fortunately, Dontrelle Inman is only $3,400. He’s had a very steady last three weeks, scoring at least 8 FP in each game, and double digits in two of the three. With Travis Benjamin likely out, he should see an uptick in targets. He’s locked in for me in cash games right now (if you are playing the Yahoo Cup, by chance, consider using him for only $11). Similarly, Tyrell Williams is still locked into my lineups. He’s been a top 15 play in each of his past three games against non-Broncos opponents. Miami doesn’t have anyone that can stop him. Diggs has seen 27 targets in the past two games. That’s enough to convince me to use him for cash games. Kendricks has been quietly one of the most consistent TEs in football the past few weeks. He has a minimum of 12.5 PPR points in each of his past three games as Case Keenum has started to lean on him. Expect more of the same this week as the Jets try to bottle up Gurley. JJ Nelson is, for some reason, only $4,200 on DraftKings. Unless David Johnson and the Cardinals D score 5 TDs combined (certainly possible), then he should have a solid chance at exceeding value and perhaps getting a deep score.
Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters.
As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience.
To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. There are instructions on the first sheet. If you have any questions whatsoever about how to use the optimizer, or if it’s not working for you, e-mail me at email@example.com. I’ll do my best to get back to you right away. If you don’t have Excel 2010 or later, then shoot me an e-mail with constraints you want, and I’ll run it for you. Also, if you have any ideas for things you’d want to see included in future iterations of this, then I’d also love to hear about them! Thanks, and have fun!!
NOTE: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include.
If you have any questions at all, shoot me an e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org. Good luck this week!
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring. Note: This week’s odds will be up shortly.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||DK||FD||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Defense Opp DK FD Off Points Sack Int Fum Rec DefTD RetTD FPPG
New England Patriots HOU $4,000 $5,100 17 2 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 8.4
Atlanta Falcons SEA $2,600 $4,300 22 2.6 0.8 0.4 0 0 6.2
Pittsburgh Steelers @KC $2,900 $4,500 22 2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 4.8
Dallas Cowboys GB $2,700 $4,500 27 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
Kansas City Chiefs PIT $3,400 $4,800 24 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0 3.9
Green Bay Packers @DAL $2,800 $4,300 26 1.8 0.4 0.6 0 0 3.2
Seattle Seahawks @ATL $3,000 $4,700 32 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 2.6
Houston Texans @NE $2,300 $4,200 27 1.5 0.1 0.6 0 0 2.5
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART
You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|