The Waiver Wire – Week 6 October 9, 2017  |  Doug Shain


The Waiver Wire – Week 6

Every league is different so doing a generic waiver wire article is difficult because nothing in season long fantasy is one size fits all. Lucky for you, nothing about what I do is generic. Every week I’m going to bust out a list of players that are available on some percentage of waiver wires (I try to keep the list to guys under 50% owned). I’m going to tell you if you need to run and get them right now, keep an eye out for them, or run and hide. I’ll also make sure to give you a streaming options if you’re like me and only draft one QB, TE, or DEF. I won’t talk about kickers because kickers aren’t real players and you should be ashamed to play in a league that starts one (I’m in two; misery loves company).  Before we start, he’s a quick look at the six categories of free agent players that we will be talking about:

 

Let’s Get Crazy – Players I think can be league difference makers and would spend a significant amount of my budget on

Due Diligence – Players that you should bid on but that I won’t be upset if I miss out on

Optical Illusions – Players that are intriguing but who may not be exactly what they seem

Look But Don’t Touch – Players that I’ll be keeping an eye on but am not yet ready to commit to; grab if you have a very deep bench

Dream the Stream – Quarterbacks, Tight Ends, and Defenses that have solid matchups this week and are worth a stream

Just in Case –players under 90% ownership that should be owned in all leagues

 

Now that that business is out of the way, it’s on with the show!

 

 

 

 QBRBWRTEDST
Let’s Get CrazyAndrew Luck (IND) – 66%Marlon Mack (IND) – 8%Mike Wallace (BAL) – 33%Jacksonville Jaguars – 65%
Andre Ellington (ARI) – 56%
Aaron Jones (GB) – 56%
Javorius Allen (BAL) – 56%
Due DiligenceElijah McGuire (NYJ) – 16%Taylor Gabriel (ATL) – 17%Ed Dickson (CAR) – 5%
Alex Collins (BAL) – 41%Josh Doctson (WSH) – 6%George Kittle (SF) – 1%
JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) – 5%
Devin Funchess (CAR) – 64%
Roger Lewis (NYG) – 1%
Nelson Agholor (PHI) – 31%
Optical IllusionEJ Manuel (OAK) – 2%Kenjon Barner (PHI) – 0%Adam Humphries (TB) – 10%Darren Fells (DET) – 0%
Look But Don’t TouchKevin Hogan (CLE) – 0%Corey Clement (PHI) – 3%Tommylee Lewis (NO) – 0%Jonnu Smith (TEN) – 0%
Darren McFadden (DAL) – 11%Justin Hardy (ATL) – 0%
Austin Ekeler (LAC) – 2%Brice Butler (DAL) – 1%
Matt Breida (SF) – 7%
Dream the StreamJosh McCown (NYJ) – 4%Ryan Griffin (HOU) – 6%Atlanta Falcons – 21%
New Orleans Saints – 1%
Just in CaseDeshaun Watson (HOU) – 89%Doug Martin (TB) – 88%Danny Amendola (NE) – 63%
Carson Wentz (PHI – 85%Duke Johnson (CLE) – 79%Will Fuller (HOU) – 73%

Let’s Get Crazy

Every week that passes is one week closer to Andrew Luck playing. Every week that are closer to Andrew Luck playing is one less week that he’s going to waste a bench spot. I don’t care if the Colts win the next three games, Jacoby Brissett is not keeping this starting job. Indy actually looks like a real NFL offense right now, and why shouldn’t they with talent like TY Hilton, Donte Moncrief, Frank Gore, and Marlon Mack? Luck is going to walk into a great situation and he should be a top 12 QB as soon as he starts. If you have the room, or if you’re using a guy like Matthew Stafford or Andy Dalton as your QB1 then I’d run to make sure that Luck was on my bench…I was actually shocked to see the ownership numbers on Andre Ellington, Aaron Jones, and Buck Allen. Ellington is a target machine (averaging 11 targets, 8 catches, and 70 yards a week in his last three games) and in a PPR league is an easy FLEX play. I’d go so far as to say he’s RB2 worthy most weeks. At only 56% owned, there’s a very good chance he’s available in your league. If you had Dalvin Cook on your roster, this is a perfect guy to grab off the wire right now…Aaron Jones is the new #1 RB on the Packers. There’s no way that Ty Montgomery comes back and continues to see the kind of usage he got prior to his injury. He still may get some snaps but that’s going to be on passing downs mostly now; Jones is the guy you want in GB. I’d spend a very decent portion of my FAAB on him (think 30% or so)…Buck Allen has outsnapped Alex Collins by a total of 87-33 over the last two weeks. Collins may have broken off a long run here and there but Allen is the lead horse on this team. Along with seeing all those snaps, Allen has averaged 5 catches a game over his last four outings. This past week he finally was the workhorse back with 21 carries once Terrence West went down. They say that the West injury isn’t long term but I still think that Allen is the guy to own in BAL…Marlon Mack didn’t get a ton of snaps in Week 5 but he sure made the most of the work he was given. Unlike the situation in Baltimore where I think the production from Alex Collins is mostly an unsustainable illusion, Mack has the chops to be a lead back in an NFL offense (or at the very least a useful part of a rotation). He’s the last of the four RB I’d want from this group but I still think he needs to be owned. He will be the main back in Indy soon enough…Mike Wallace was a top 30 WR in each of the last handful of seasons. The Ravens offense is only going to get better (how much better is debatable). Wallace will come around, and sitting at 33% owned (less than names like Kenny Britt, Jordan Matthews, and Ted Ginn) is ridiculous. I’d grab him in any league I could, and it probably wouldn’t cost me a ton of FAAB to do it (5% of your budget should get it done)…The Jaguars defense is legit. I don’t like to spend a significant portion of my waiver budget on a defense but they currently have 33% more points than the next highest defense using a standard scoring system. The AFC South is far from a loaded division. Get the Jags, start them every week, and relax.

 

Due Diligence

It sure looks like Elijah McGuire is the new lead back on the Jets for the time being. It doesn’t hurt his value that Matt Forte and Bilal Powell are both hurt, but with a good showing this weekend against New England he can put a stranglehold on this job. The reason that he’s not a higher priority for me is because I’m not totally sure he can put up that good performance. He was really bad against the Browns (a better than you think run defense); if he’s that bad against NE he goes to the back of the line once Powell and Forte are ready to play…Just because I prefer Buck Allen to Alex Collins, it doesn’t mean I don’t think we should keep an eye on the latter. He has broken off a number of big runs this year and it only takes one or two to make a big week. Even with only a third of the snaps on Baltimore he has some value as a bye week fill in…There are a lot of WR to take a look at right now but none that really stand out as must own. I like the potential that Josh Doctson has shown but with a few more dropped game-winning TD’s like he had in Week 4 he could be riding the pines in favor of Ryan Grant. I think he’s got enough of a leash to be ok for now and if he ever can get enough targets he could be a real playmaker. Let’s not forget that coming out of TCU he was considered that draft’s version of Odell Beckham Jr…Taylor Gabriel should be owned if Julio Jones or Mohamed Sanu can’t play in Week 6. Right now that’s a little uncertain so I wouldn’t overspend on Gabriel…Devin Funchess looks like the real deal in Carolina (14-123-3 the last two weeks) and is probably the player that is closest to “Let’s Get Crazy” status. I’m probably a little too low on him but there’s just something I don’t trust about the Carolina offense. The second I start to believe I feel like the wheels could come off this wagon…Roger Lewis may be the WR1 on the Giants going forward. I liked him a lot in college but he’s yet to make a huge impact in the NFL. Eli has to throw to somebody and he’s the WR that’s been on the team the longest. He scored a TD after everyone got hurt in Week 5 so that leads me to believe he will be the man for NYG going forward. Temper expectations this week because NYG is playing Denver, but after that he should be an alright FLEX play…Nelson Agholor and JuJu Smith-Schuster are their teams WR3 and will have big week here and there. Good luck figuring it out. If you’re desperate then they are worth owning (I am in three home leagues and have 1 share of each guy)…I don’t totally believe in Ed Dickson but Cam sure likes looking for him. If you really needed a TE (like if you own Gronk or Jack Doyle) then he’s a guy to own…I much prefer George Kittle to Ed Dickson. Kittle may not have the downfield upside of Dickson but he’s going to be a more consistent player. He reminds me a lot of Vance McDonald or Heath Miller. We don’t get anything spectacular but a weekly expectation of 3-40 with a shot at a TD is definitely in play.

 

 

 

Optical Illusion

EJ Manuel looked bad against the Ravens. He’s going to look bad against the Chargers. He’s not a good QB. You can’t possibly be this hard up for a QB except in the deepest of 2 QB leagues…Kenjon Barner wasn’t supposed to see any offensive snaps, but then he did. He’s not going to see much action at all going forward. Once Wendell Smallwood comes back, possibly this week, Barner will be relegated to Special Teams (at best). Go grab Corey Clement instead…I don’t get the Humphries hype. I know he got a few targets for a few weeks but this Tampa Bay team has a lot of mouths to feed. He’s, at best, fifth in the pecking order behind Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Doug Martin, and Cameron Brate. Add in OJ Howard and Charles Sims and there’s really not a lot of upside lurking for Humphries. I’d rather take a shot on Roger Lewis…Darren Fells scored two fluke TD’s. He never was anything, he’ll never be anything. Hard pass.

 

Look But Don’t Touch

In a single QB league I’m not ready to buy into Kevin Hogan just yet. He looked good in the small amount of time he was on the field against the Jets. He won’t be like that in every game he plays but he’s got a little bit of Tebow in him (not a great thrower, can run awkwardly a bit) and that’s not bad for fantasy (I’m a Tebow truther for fantasy). If you’re in a 2QB league then I’d probably put a move in for him since you don’t get enough depth at QB in that situation…I’m still of the belief that McFadden gets the bulk of the work for Dallas if Ezekiel Elliott gets suspended. I’d still grab him if I had a deep enough bench, but until then I’d wait it out. Every week Zeke plays, we get another week closer to you not needing McFadden…I was very disappointed with the workload we saw from Corey Clement with Wendell Smallwood inactive. I have him in my home leagues but those are very deep leagues. I wouldn’t touch him in 10-12 team leagues with short benches…It looks like Austin Ekeler is the backup for Melvin Gordon, possibly even when Branden Oliver comes back. The kid looks like he’s got a bit of talent but there’s no clear path to production right now…Matt Breida outsnapped Carlos Hyde in Week 5. Kyle Shanahan said he was “riding the hot hand” but that seems counterproductive given that Hyde is the far superior player that they are looking to sign to a contract extension. This is Hyde’s job, don’t read into any of this. I wouldn’t grab Breida unless I owned Hyde at the moment…We have just a few guys to keep in mind at WR/TE. It’s the same four players as last week. None of them have any regular playing time coming their way but they’ve all seen the field a bit and are worth keeping in the back of your mind. Brice Butler is the most interesting to me if he could ever get in the 5-6 target range consistently. That’s not happening any time though.

 

 

 

 

Dream the Stream

                Any QB against the Patriots is in play, so I have to mention Josh McCown. He kind of burned us all last week (not Cutler levels of burn, but still not great) but when the matchup is right we trust the process…Any TE that plays the Browns is in play, so I have to mention Ryan Griffin. He’s not a great TE and Deshaun Watson doesn’t really target him; but he’s a TE facing the Browns. We’ve seen career games from Jesse James, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and Tyler Kroft against Cleveland so far this year (not to mention a monster game from Ben Watson as well)…Any DEF against Jay Cutler is in play, so I have to mention the Falcons. Atlanta isn’t all that bad actually and is a team I’d look at against a lot of weaker opponents. Miami is particularly terrible so that makes ATL the best defense to stream in Week 6…The Saints defense is a lot better than you think. Over their last two games they have allowed only 13 total points while getting 4 turnovers and 8 sacks. Both of those games were road games. Detroit still hasn’t proven anything to me and now Matthew Stafford is hobbling. New Orleans is far from the worst streaming option in Week 6, and one that you probably won’t have to compete for to obtain.

 

Just in Case

Deshaun Watson is a top 5 QB going forward. If he’s on your Waiver Wire, add him immediately even if you don’t need a QB…Carson Wentz is a top 12 QB the rest of the season. He’s not a must add but he’s a great backup, bye week fill in, or starter if you have a struggling QB…Duke Johnson is amazing. He’s going to own that job soon. Over his last three weeks he’s had at least 60 yards and a TD in every game. I don’t know what else you’d want out of your FLEX position…Doug Martin has definitely reestablished himself as the lead dog in TB. Go get him if you’re in one of the 12% of league where he’s unowned…Will Fuller’s recent performance (2 games, 4 TD’s) is no fluke. He’s not a 2 TD a game type of player (who is??) but he’s a vital part of the Houston offense and is not going away. He will have some bust weeks but his boom weeks are going to be outstanding…Danny Amendola is about the only reliable piece in the New England offense with 5 targets in every game he’s played. He has taken over the Julian Edelman role and that means solid, if not spectacular, production every week.

 

Your feedback is always welcome. Please make sure to follow me on Twitter @bankster17, and keep an eye out for my DFS column (The Hail Mary) on the main page Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

 

 

 

 

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