The Waiver Wire – Week 3
September 18, 2017 | Doug Shain
The Waiver Wire – Week 3
Every league is different so doing a generic waiver wire article is difficult because nothing in season long fantasy is one size fits all. Lucky for you, nothing about what I do is generic. Every week I’m going to bust out a list of players that are available on some percentage of waiver wires (I try to keep the list to guys under 50% owned). I’m going to tell you if you need to run and get them right now, keep an eye out for them, or run and hide. I’ll also make sure to give you a streaming options if you’re like me and only draft one QB, TE, or DEF. I won’t talk about kickers because kickers aren’t real players and you should be ashamed to play in a league that starts one (I’m in two; misery loves company). Before we start, he’s a quick look at the six categories of free agent players that we will be talking about:
Let’s Get Crazy – Players I think can be league difference makers and would spend a significant amount of my budget on
Due Diligence – Players that you should bid on
Optical Illusions – Players that are intriguing but who may not be exactly what they seem
Look But Don’t Touch – Players that I’ll be keeping an eye on but am not yet ready to commit to
Dream the Stream – Quarterbacks, Tight Ends, and Defenses that have solid matchups this week and are worth a stream
Just in Case – Players with a slightly higher ownership that you need to make sure aren’t on waivers
Percentages shown reflect ownership in Yahoo Public Leagues (not percentage of FAAB I’d spend on the player).
Now that that business is out of the way, it’s on with the show!
|Let’s Get Crazy||Buck Allen (BAL) – 56%||JJ Nelson (ARI) – 20%||Jack Doyle (IND) – 64%|
|Chris Carson (SEA) – 40%||Brandon Coleman (NO) – 1%|
|Due Diligence||Blake Bortles (JAX) – 13%||Alvin Kamara (NO) – 37%||Jermaine Kearse (NYJ) – 7%|
|Trevor Siemian (DEN) – 13%||Chris Thompson (WSH) – 30%||Allen Hurns (JAX) – 26%|
|Jared Goff (LAR) – 10%||Branden Oliver (SD) – 1%||Rashad Higgins (CLE) – 2%|
|D’Onta Foreman (HOU) – 7%||Paul Richardson (SEA) – 14%|
|Chris Johnson (ARI) – 12%||Mohamed Sanu (ATL) – 17%|
|Jaron Brown (ARI) – 2%|
|Optical Illusion||Jalen Richard (OAK) – 4%||Cordarelle Patterson (OAK) – 2%||Ed Dickson (CAR) – 0%|
|Look But Don’t Touch||Jacoby Brissett (IND) – 2%||Mike Tolbert (BUF) – 7%||Tanner McEvoy (SEA) – 0%||Ben Watson (BAL) – 1%|
|Elijah McGuire (NYJ) – 0%||Ryan Grant (WSH) - 05||Gerald Everett (LAR) – 0%|
|Corey Clement (PHI) – 0%|
|Dream the Stream||DeShone Kizer (CLE) – 10%||Julius Thomas (MIA) – 46%||Indianapolis Colts – 1%|
|Miami Dolphins – 4%|
|Just in Case||Duke Johnson (CLE) – 51%||Cooper Kupp (LAR) – 69%|
|Marqise Lee (JAX) – 34%|
|Kenny Golladay (DET) – 76%|
Let’s Get Crazy
I talked about Buck Allen last week and all he did was go out and have a Top 5 fantasy day. He had 19 touches for 101 yards and a TD. On top of that, West is now injured (severity unknown). It’s clear to me that Allen is guy to own in Ravens backfield. I’d use a large portion of my FAAB or use my #1 waiver priority to get him on my team. He could be a league winning play (particularly in a PPR setup)…Chris Carson is still available in 60% of Y! leagues so there’s a really good chance you can get him on your team right now. He’s been the best RB on Seattle since the first preseason game and it doesn’t look like he’s slowing down. I don’t buy the rhetoric at all that Pete Carroll is throwing out there about “working Thomas Rawls back in slowly.” That’s hogwash. Carroll has never been afraid to throw a rookie into the fire (see: Russell Wilson and Thomas Rawls) if he’s clearly the best player. Carson is clearly the best RB on this team. The only reason I’d go with Allen over Carson is because of the lack of competition for receptions that Allen faces…JJ Nelson has scored 7 TD over his last seven games dating back to last year. Forget John Brown, Nelson is the second option on ARI. He saw 7 targets in Week 2 and that knack for getting into the end zone pushes him over the top for me. Quite honestly, at this point I’d rather own him than Larry Fitzgerald…I’m calling my shot with Brandon Coleman. I think that the Saints have quickly figured out what we’ve all known for a while; Ted Ginn sucks at catching footballs. Brandon Coleman was a preseason star and he’s now working his way into a meaningful regular season role for the Saints. There are a lot of mouths to feed with Willie Snead coming back in two weeks and Coby Fleener coming back from the dead but I think there’s still room for Coleman to be a solid FLEX play going forward…Jack Doyle is currently a TE1 and will remain so for the rest of the year. Indy loves to use their TE and Doyle happens to be quite good at his job. He’s a very steady play and will get even better as Jacoby Brissett gets more comfortable in this offense. His two week average of 5-60 seems like a reasonable weekly floor. With injuries and uncertainty abound at the positing, Doyle is someone you can set and forget starting immediately.
Lots of names on this list so I’ll go rapid fire with the analysis. The 3 QB’s I mentioned should be owned in all 2 QB leagues, while Bortles and Siemian make for useful backups in 1 QB leagues. Bortles could be a borderline starter in 14+ team leagues (I’m not sold on the fact that we haven’t already seen the best of Siemian this year). Garbage time will be aplenty and he’s once again looking like the king. I don’t care where the points come from, as long as they come…Branden Oliver should be owned only be Melvin Gordon owners with a deep bench as it’s clear that he’s the guy LAC will turn to if something were to happen to Gordon…D’Onta Foreman looks better than Lamar Miller. The only real question is how long it will take for Bill O’Brien to figure this out. Like with Oliver I’d only grab him if I had a deep bench (maybe six players or more in a 12 team league), had a need at RB, or had a player I could readily drop (like an extra kicker or defense)…Chris Johnson looks to get the majority of the work for the Cardinals. I don’t love him but if you’re desperate at least he’s got some volume to look forward to…I still say that Kamara is the best RB in New Orleans. Sean Payton is smart; he’ll figure that out quickly. It wouldn’t shock me to see them use him in the same way that GB uses Ty Montgomery with his pass catching skills…Chris Thompson won’t repeat what he did last week with 2 TD on three carries but he is a pass catching specialist (12 targets through two weeks) that warrants some consideration in PPR formats…Kearse, Hurns, Sanu, and Jaron Brown are all seeing a decent amount of targets for their teams. I wouldn’t run out to grab Brown or Sanu but Kearse and Hurns were very close to making the “Let’s Go Crazy” list. I know that the Jets and Jags are bad but someone has to catch the ball for them. Kearse (7 targets, 60 yards, 1 TD average) and Hurns (6-82-1 this week) are those guys…If Paul Richardson is healthy, it’s worth noting that he has seen 12 targets in two weeks this year…Rashard Higgins was on the practice squad for CLE for Week 1 but was their leading WR in Week 2 (7-95 on 11 targets). Corey Coleman broke his hand (again) and Kenny Britt looks lost in this offense. Higgins was a stud at Colorado St and sometimes all it takes is a shot for a guy to show what he’s made of. He kind of reminds me of Josh Gordon during his breakout season. I’m not saying it’ll yield the same results but if you have the space, go get him on your bench (I know I will).
I’m going to keep this short and simple- Jalen Richard and Cordarelle Patterson are not going to run for 40+ yard TD’s every week. Don’t pick them up in the hopes that they do. They are complimentary players and not worth even a stash on your bench…Ed Dickson will be a popular pick up with Greg Olsen going down with an injury. Ed Dickson is not Greg Olsen. You will be much better off just streaming your TE position.
Look But Don’t Touch
I’m not ready to touch Brissett even as a streamer but as he starts to get into a rhythm with his WR he could get interesting. Let’s not forget that TY Hilton and Donte Moncrief are really good…I’m not ready to take Mike Tolbert off my watch list quite yet, despite his 3 carry game in Week 2. He’s still the handcuff for Shady and if he gets but up to a half dozen or more carries in Week 3 then I’m probably grabbing him if I have McCoy on my team (especially if he vultures a TD)…It might be a long way off but there are some rumblings here and there that Elijah McGuire and Corey Clement may be in line for some additional work for their respective teams. The Jets RB tandem of Bilal Powell and Matt Forte are unproductive and old (Powell is shockingly almost 29 years old), while nobody on the Eagles seems to want to grab the starting RB job. Clement was awesome at Wisconsin and is used to facing tough defensive fronts in the B1G so it wouldn’t shock me if he adapted well to an NFL style running game. I’m not ready to grab them yet but that could change if some news drops before my waiver deadline. If not, then I’m surely going to watch to see how much work they get in Week 3, if any…Ben Watson went bananas in Week 2 but that was against the Browns, against whom everyone goes bananas. If Watson continues to see the volume that he saw in Week 2 (8 targets), then he may enter the TE1 conversation in 12+ team leagues…Gerald Everett got banged up in Week 2 but he also showed that he’s the TE on the Rams that’s going to be the dynamic playmaker. He saw three targets in Week 2 compared to Higbee’s one target.
Dream the Stream
I’ll consider streaming any QB against the Colts. DeShone Kizer brings rushing upside to the table as well. Hue Jackson came out on Monday and said he’s not concerned about the migraines because they happen only once every four to six months for Kizer. I’m excited to see what he can produce against a weak Colts defense. He’s the kind of guy I’d use if I was relying on Sam Bradford, Tyrod Taylor, Andy Dalton, or even Dak Prescott (tweaked an ankle in Week 2) as my starter…Julius Thomas faces the Jets this weekend. The Jets are terrible against the TE position. I know that it looks like Jared Cook didn’t do well in Week 2 but if you watched the game you would know that he had the Jets LB beat for a 50 yard TD that Derek Carr just slightly overthrew him on. If that pass was on target we’d have been looking at a 5-75-1 line instead of a 4-25-0 line. Game flow took Cook out of that game as well since the Jets could not stop the run at all (two 40+yd TD runs against them). I like Julius Thomas to come closer to the 5-75 line rather than the 4-25 line that we saw from Cook…Miami is at the Jets. I will always recommend to use the defense playing the Jets…Indianapolis is playing the Browns. Despite my love for Kizer, that doesn’t mean that he can’t throw three picks and get sacked four times while throwing for 200 yards and rushing for 50 yards.
Just in Case
No analysis needed. Duke, Kupp, Lee, and Golladay should be owned in all leagues. If they aren’t, go big and get them.
Your feedback is always welcome. Please make sure to follow me on Twitter @bankster17, and keep an eye out for my DFS column (The Hail Mary) on the main page Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.
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