The Waiver Wire – Week 13
November 27, 2017 | Doug Shain
The Waiver Wire – Week 13
Every league is different so doing a generic waiver wire article is difficult because nothing in season long fantasy is one size fits all. Lucky for you, nothing about what I do is generic. Every week I’m going to bust out a list of players that are available on some percentage of waiver wires (I try to keep the list to guys under 50% owned). I’m going to tell you if you need to run and get them right now, keep an eye out for them, or run and hide. I’ll also make sure to give you a streaming options if you’re like me and only draft one QB, TE, or DEF. I won’t talk about kickers because kickers aren’t real players and you should be ashamed to play in a league that starts one (I’m in two; misery loves company). Before we start, he’s a quick look at the six categories of free agent players that we will be talking about:
Let’s Get Crazy – Players I think can be league difference makers and would spend a significant amount of my budget on
Due Diligence – Players that you should bid on but that I won’t be upset if I miss out on
Optical Illusions – Players that are intriguing but who may not be exactly what they seem
Look But Don’t Touch – Players that I’ll be keeping an eye on but am not yet ready to commit to; grab if you have a very deep bench
Dream the Stream – Quarterbacks, Tight Ends, and Defenses that have solid matchups this week and are worth a stream
Just in Case –players under 85% ownership that should be owned in all leagues
Now that that business is out of the way, it’s on with the show!
|Let’s Get Crazy||Josh McCown (NYJ) – 33%||DeVontae Booker (DEN) – 34%||Martavis Bryant (PIT) – 54%||Ricky Seals-Jones (ARI) – 1%||Los Angeles Chargers – 33%|
|Case Keenum (MIN) – 46%||Rex Burkhead (NE) – 50%||Josh Gordon (CLE) – 51%|
|Corey Coleman (CLE) – 40%|
|Due Diligence||DeShone Kizer (CLE) – 3%||Austin Ekeler (LAC) – 34%||Marquise Goodwin (SF) – 14%|
|Tyrod Taylor (BUF) – 49%||James Conner (PIT) – 4%||Josh Reynolds (LAR) – 1%|
|Rod Smith (DAL) – 14%||Tyrell Williams (LAC) – 36%|
|Dede Westbrook (JAX) – 25%|
|Mike Wallace (BAL) – 39%|
|Optical Illusion||Peyton Barber (TB) – 1%|
|Look But Don’t Touch||JD McKissic (SEA) – 31%||Cordarelle Patterson (OAK) – 4%|
|Zay Jones (BUF) – 14%|
|Dream the Stream||Eli Manning (NYG) – 45%||CJ Fiedorowicz (HOU) – 20%||Tennessee Titans – 24%|
|Trevor Siemian (DEN) – 6%|
|Just in Case||Philip Rivers (LAC) – 82%||Dion Lewis (NE) – 82%||Robby Anderson (NYJ) – 83%||Jack Doyle (IND) – 79%|
|Latavius Murray (MIN) – 81%||Jamison Crowder (WSH) – 82%||Hunter Henry (LAC) – 67%|
|Samaje Perine (WSH) – 79%|
Let’s Get Crazy
Shocking as it is, I think I’m going to have to spend some time talking about the Cleveland Browns and how they are going to take you to a fantasy championship this year. Yes, I’m still sick but no, it’s not clouding my judgment. DeShone Kizer leads the league in QB rushing TD’s, he’s going to be playing from behind the rest of the year, and he’s got a number of big weapons at his disposal. Forget the fact that Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson make for a New Orleans-lite tandem in the Cleveland backfield, I’m more excited about the returns of Corey Coleman (60+ yards in each of his two games since return from injury) and Josh Gordon. I have no idea if Gordon can do what he did a few years ago but what I do know is that he’s motivated an immensely talented. Even if he’s only three-quarters as good as he was at his peak, that’s still a guy who is a solid WR3 for you team. I’m not saying that you should run out and trade for every Browns player that you can get your hands on, but if they’re sitting on the waiver wire in your league you should definitely cut some dead weight and get them on your roster. You don’t need that extra TE, QB, K, or DST anymore; use that spot for a potential league-winning player like Gordon, Coleman, and/or Kizer…I was looking at some ownership levels and it blows my mind that Eli Manning is 45% owned while Josh McCown is only 33% owned. McCown is so far and away better right now than Eli Manning is, and on top of that he’s got better weapons. Speaking of those weapons, if you’re in one of the 17% of leagues where Robby Anderson is available I want you to open a new tab, run to your league, and go blow all your remaining FAAB on him. A McCown/Andeson stack is about as good as it has been over the last five weeks. I see no reason for that to slow down as we head towards our fantasy playoffs…Speaking of the playoffs, Case Keenum looks like the type of QB that can win a real life NFL playoff game. His team is loaded with a pair of stud WR, a thunder and lightning backfield, a top 10 TE, and a defense that will keep him from having to do too much to win games. I’d prefer to use McCown (and probably Kizer) over Keenum but if you’re in a 2 QB league or if you’ve been streaming all year then he’s a guy you can grab and feel comfortable with going forward…While he only got 6 carries this past weekend, it looks like Devontae Booker is the man in the Denver backfield going forward. With Trevor Siemian probably grabbing that job again, Denver should be in a much better position to get Booker some quality looks. He’s a flex option going forward…The Patriots backfield has historically been a tough one to figure out but right now it looks like Dion Lewis is the between the 20’s runner while Burkhead is the third down and red zone back. That role holds a ton of value for a Patriots RB. Burkhead should be owned in more than half the leagues right now…The injury that kept JuJu Smith-Schuster out this past week is apparently going to be more than a one week deal. Martavis Bryant stepped in and looked just fine as the WR2 in Pittsburgh. He’s got all the tools to have a big impact on your team down the stretch…I was quick to point out last week how I felt that Ricky Seals-Jones wasn’t a thing. I was dead wrong. He’s a thing, and he’s a good thing. The kid can get open and he has some moves in the open field, not to mention a little bit of speed. He looks like a matchup nightmare for opposing LB. I like him a lot going forward… Yes, I’m about to yell at you. I’ve been screaming for weeks that the Chargers DST is the real deal. They are still on the waiver wire in two-thirds of leagues. There aren’t more than four or five defenses I’d rather own the rest of the year. Get off your butt and go make a cheap move for a defense that can help you win your league. There is no excuse for the lack of ownership for LAC right now.
Don’t be Sean McDermott; make sure you have Tyrod Taylor in your sights. He’s not a Tom Brady-type QB but he does enough to be a worthwhile play if you’re streaming QB’s or if you’ve got a struggling QB option. He definitely needs to be owned in 2 QB and Superflex leagues as this point. Just don’t forget that he’s out there…None of Austin Ekeler, Rod Smith, or James Conner need to be used at the moment but they should be on your rosters if you already own Melvin Gordon, Alfred Morris, and/or LeVeon Bell. This is the time of year where we need to consolidate our teams to only useful resources now that the byes are over. It’s going to be hard to find a starting RB on the waiver wire so you’re much better off just grabbing your handcuff and being assured of a starter if your stud goes down. I’d rather own these guys over someone like Buck Allen or Eddie Lacy if you’re not starting those guys (and if you are, don’t worry, your season is over next week)…When I’m looking to grab a WR off the waiver wire this late in the season I’m looking for a guy who can blow up and give me a big week. Apologies to the Cooper Kupp’s of the world, but I’m not looking for a possession receiver. I want big plays and lots of them…Marquise Goodwin has been giving us big plays for three years, but that’s about all he’s good for. Perhaps that will change with Jimmy Garoppolo taking over the starting QB gig in San Francisco. I’d much rather have a guy like Goodwin on my team than someone like Randall Cobb or Brandon LaFell (who you hopefully aren’t starting)…Josh Reynolds looks to be the guy that’s replacing Robert Woods while he’s injured. Jared Goff looked to him often this week and he ended up with a line of 4-37-1. Those numbers don’t pop off the page but as Reynolds gets more comfortable in this role he could see those numbers increase (especially if Sammy Watkins continues to drop passes that elite WR are catching)…Dede Westbrook has had 5+ catches in each of his two games this year. At some point the Jags should realize that he’s a much better deep option than Keelan Cole. This revelation could take his 7.0 yards per reception and triple it. He’s a big play waiting to happen; if only Doug Marone was smart enough to make that happen…Tyrell Williams and Mike Wallace have done it in the past and both of their QB’s are playing improved football these last few weeks. LAC and BAL are in the thick of the playoff hunt and will be pulling out all the stops to make a run. Both have elite deep speed and are trusted by their QB’s. While neither is the primary option for their offenses, both are capable of big games.
It’s cute that Peyton Barber scored 2 TD after Doug Martin left the game with a concussion. He finished the game with 5 carries for 7 yards to go with those 2 TD. TD are flukey, those other numbers are not. He’s not a big part of this offense, he won’t be seeing double digit carries, and he’s not a guy you should waste your time on
Look But Don’t Touch
I will keep waiting for Pete Carroll to realize that he needs to go full 2016 Packers and just get McKissic in the game for 80% of the snaps. He’s the best RB on the roster and they’re not going to establish any running game, so all of this Eddie Lacy garbage is just wasting time. Until I get the feeling that Carroll has figured this out, I’m going to leave McKissic on the waiver wire (unless you’re in a league like mine that has a deep, deep, deep bench)…I like what I saw out of both Cordarrelle Patterson and Zay Jones this weekend but their future productivity is dependent on their injured teammates (Amari Cooper and Kelvin Benjamin, respectively). If we find out more about Cooper and Benjamin before the waiver run, then I might be more inclined to jump on Patterson and Jones. Until that time, I’m going to lay back and keep my ears open.
Dream the Stream
The Giants face Oakland and the Broncos play the Dolphins. Both of those defense are terrible against the pass. This puts both Eli Manning and Trevor Siemian in the discussion as potential streaming plays if that’s how you’ve chosen to go this year. I prefer Siemian over Eli due to a much better set of weapons at his disposal…The Tennessee Titans don’t defend the TE position well. CJF is a TE that is available in 80% of leagues. If you’re streaming TE, a very viable strategy, then he’s a guy you can look at that should give you enough production to not completely ruin your fantasy playoff dreams…On the other side of the ball in that game, the Houston Texans start Tom Savage at QB. Tom Savage isn’t good. The Titans are very good at getting in the backfield and hitting the QB. I could see a game of 5+ sacks for Tennessee here. That pressure will lead to many chances for turnovers as well as the sacks.
Just in Case
Usually Philip Rivers tanks in the second half of the season. This year he’s just starting to heat up. I think the Chargers are highly underrated and are poised to make a run to the playoffs and Rivers should continue his high level of play. I’d rather use him than Drew Brees or Cam Newton at the moment, if you’re looking for a point of comparison…Volume is king for a RB. Lewis, Murray, and Perine are all getting 15+ quality touches very week. If I was ranking them I’d go Perine, Murray, and then Lewis due to a lack of competition for touches for Perine and a lack of goal line looks for Lewis. All three need to be owned heading into the fantasy playoffs…We already talked about how nuts it is that Robby Anderson is available in 17% of leagues, and it’s almost as nuts that Crowder is available in 18% of leagues. Both are the primary targets for passing offenses. Crowder will get more volume while Anderson should get more big-play TD…Jack Doyle and Hunter Henry are top 12 TE. They should be owned in all leagues (Doyle over Henry).
Your feedback is always welcome. Please make sure to follow me on Twitter @bankster17, and keep an eye out for my DFS column (The Hail Mary) on the main page Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.
Fantasy Pros Tools: