The Waiver Wire – Week 14
December 4, 2017 | Doug Shain
The Waiver Wire – Week 14
Every league is different so doing a generic waiver wire article is difficult because nothing in season long fantasy is one size fits all. Lucky for you, nothing about what I do is generic. Every week I’m going to bust out a list of players that are available on some percentage of waiver wires (I try to keep the list to guys under 50% owned). I’m going to tell you if you need to run and get them right now, keep an eye out for them, or run and hide. I’ll also make sure to give you a streaming options if you’re like me and only draft one QB, TE, or DEF. I won’t talk about kickers because kickers aren’t real players and you should be ashamed to play in a league that starts one (I’m in two; misery loves company). Before we start, he’s a quick look at the six categories of free agent players that we will be talking about:
Let’s Get Crazy – Players I think can be league difference makers and would spend a significant amount of my budget on
Due Diligence – Players that you should bid on but that I won’t be upset if I miss out on
Optical Illusions – Players that are intriguing but who may not be exactly what they seem
Dream the Stream – Quarterbacks, Tight Ends, and Defenses that have solid matchups this week and are worth a stream
Now that that business is out of the way, it’s on with the show!
|Let’s Get Crazy||Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) – 16%||Peyton Barber (TB) – 6%||Cordarelle Patterson (OAK) – 14%||Ricky Seals-Jones (ARI) – 28%|
|Blake Bortles (JAX) – 34%||Mike Davis (SEA) – 9%||Josh Gordon (CLE) – 72%||Stephen Anderson (HOU) – 0%|
|Kenyan Drake (MIA) – 68%||Kenny Stills (MIA) – 55%|
|Due Diligence||Giovani Bernard (CIN) – 10%||Marquise Goodwin (SF) – 32%||Cameron Brate (TB) – 55%|
|Matt Breida (SF) – 5%||Trent Taylor (SF) – 0%||George Kittle (SF) – 3%|
|Tion Green (DET) – 0%||Jermaine Kearse (NYJ) – 46%|
|Dede Westbrook (JAX) – 28%|
|Mike Wallace (BAL) – 35%|
|Ryan Grant (WSH) – 2%|
|Dontrelle Inman (CHI) – 17%|
|Optical Illusion||Kerwynn Williams (ARI) – 3%|
|Dream the Stream||Indianapolis Colts – 1%|
|Cincinnati Bengals – 34%|
Before we get too deep into things, please understand that outside of Kenyan Drake and Josh Gordon (both over 65% owned), there isn’t anyone that I’m going to talk about in this article that I feel is a league-winning, make or break type of play. That’s not to say that we can’t go out and find a useful piece if you’ve been streaming players but you got to the playoffs on the strength of the roster you currently have and no amount of Mike Davis or Trent Taylor should be the thing that moves the needle. That said, there are still teams that make a run every year that have a hole or two to fill and we never know when a surprise inactive may jump up and screw us (thanks, AP!). As long as your team has a pulse and you have the roster space, you should be filling up your bench with player that can either help your team win or that you can keep from your opponent to prevent them from winning. Defense wins championships, right? The same adage rings true in fantasy. Make sure that even if you don’t have a need, you’re not just allowing your competitors to fil theirs if you have the ability to block them.
Let’s Get Crazy
I know it might sound crazy but maybe now is the time to take a look at some of the San Francisco 49ers. The whole world is talking about how great Jimmy Graoppolo looked in Week 13 (I say 292 yards, an 83 QB rating, and 0 TD is far from world beating) and to be honest, he did look pretty solid despite my belief that those same people are overstating just how great Jimmy G was. I don’t know if you have the stones to do it, but you could revamp your whole offense and stack 49ers if you wanted to. Marquise Goodwin, Trent Taylor, and George Kittle are all widely available. San Francisco has a great two week stretch coming up against the Texans and Titans so it’s not like we are stretching too far to call the 49ers a good team to use (don’t use them in Week 16 against the Jags though). The most important stat that I pulled from Garoppolo’s Week 13 start was that he was a perfect 14 for 14 when targeting Taylor and Goodwin. That’s a huge plus for all of them, and with the matchups getting better I would expect that we see Garoppolo do a little more than he did in Week 13. I’m also of the belief that at some point Matt Breida is going to start seeing carries in place of Carlos Hyde. At this point I don’t see any reason why they don’t look a little bit to the future since they are doing that at QB…Apparently the Jaguars are now a passing team. He is averaging about 33 attempts per game over his last three outings and if Doug Moron (that’s his new name) is going to continue this trend then we might as well benefit from it. After a semi-rough matchup against Seattle (less scary since the game is in Jacksonville and two-thirds of the Legion of Boom aren’t playing) they have easy games against SF, HOU, and TEN to finish up the season. You really can’t ask for too much of a better stretch than that…Last week I said that Peyton Barber was an illusion. I’m not sure I was terribly wrong in saying that (I don’t care for his talent) but if he’s going to be the lead back in Tampa then he needs to be owned. The Bucs have a great matchup in Week 14 against a Lions team getting gashed out of the backfield over the last month or so (165 rushing yards per game allowed). Not only that, but Barber caught four passes in Week 13 as well so it’s not like he’s being brushed aside by Charles Sims in the passing game. That’s going to play well in Weeks 15 and 16 when the Bucs face ATL and CAR…Mike Davis save over 70% of the snaps for Seattle in Week 13. He’s looked better than any RB on the roster since Chris Carson went down. This week’s matchup against the Jaguars isn’t ideal but he ends the fantasy season against the Rams and Cowboys, two teams you can definitely run on. Grab him now and stash him for the semi-finals and finals…If Kenyan Drake or Josh Gordon are available in your league drop whatever remaining FAAB you have on them. They are championship level players…Seth Roberts may be the guy more familiar with the Raiders offense but I like Cordarelle Patterson again this weekend against the Chiefs. KC is reeling and they are giving up passing yards like crazy. Even with Amari Cooper possibly returning to the lineup this weekend, Patterson should have plenty of snaps with Michael Crabtree serving the second game of his suspension. It’ll be interesting to see if old school Tyreek Hill can outduel new school Tyreek Hill. Patterson is far from safe but the upside is there if you’re looking for a home run…I was shocked to see how well Kenny Stills played with Jay Cutler back in the lineup for Miami but clearly he is just a better WR than Devante Parker. Stills gets New England this weekend (not an easy matchup) but then finishes the fantasy season with games against the Bills and Chiefs (both very easy matchups). I think he continues to play well, and with DGAF Cutler throwing him the ball, you know that chances will be taken downfield. Of all the players not named Josh Gordon, Stills probably has the highest upside of anyone you can go grab right now…Ricky Seals-Jones came back down to Earth a little bit in Week 13 but I’m more interested in the fact that he still got 5 targets than the harsh reality that he only caught two of them. This kid is talented and Blaine Gabbert will continue to look his way. Seals-Jones has three great matchups coming up against Tennessee, the Giants, and Washington so I look for him to rebound as soon as this weekend…After CJ Fiedorowicz went down with a concussion this past week, Stephen Anderson saw a ridiculous 12 targets. I know that he was playing the Titans, who get killed by TE, but that’s a lot of targets either way. Anderson has a ton of talent and is more like a WR than a TE. He’s a raw route runner but he’s got speed and size, a great combination. The Texans don’t have a great schedule for the fantasy playoffs but if Anderson is going to get snaps, he could be a big producer opposite DeAndre Hopkins.
As I’m writing this, Joe Mixon was taken to the locker room for the Bengals. I have no idea the severity of the injury but it’s worth keeping an eye on. If he’s out for any length of time then Gio Bernard should see a huge workload. He’s got the talent to pay those touches off and could be a sneaky player down the stretch if Mixon is seriously injured…I don’t know if Tion Green is anything special but he got 11 carries this past weekend and looked good with them. Detroit needs a running game and at this point they may realize that Ameer Abduallah isn’t the answer. Perhaps he’s not a guy you start this week but he’s worth grabbing to see if he’s a guy you can play in the semi-finals…Outside of the SF duo there are a number of WR that should be on fantasy rosters that currently aren’t. None of them is going to win you a title but having a little bit of depth never hurt anyone. If I wanted a safe floor then I’d look to Kearse and Westbrook, while Wallace is a player to use if you need a home run player that’s done it before. Ryan Grant and Dontrelle Inman are cogs in the offense but neither is a WR1, or even a traditional WR2, so I’d only grab them if I was desperate or if you were playing someone who needed a WR badly…I put Cameron Brate on the list because he’s Jameis Winston’s favorite target and he may have been dropped in your league after Ryan Fitzpatrick ignored him. Grab him now, he’s a top 10 guy with Winston as the QB.
Even if Adrian Peterson were to miss the rest of the season, I don’t buy anything I’ve seen from Kerwynn Williams. He’s not a good player and he won’t lead you to a championship. I suppose you can grab him if you have AP and there’s nobody on your roster who can replace him but other than that I’ll pass.
Dream the Stream
Nathan Peterman should get the start for Buffalo this weekend. He was awful the last time he started a game. The Colts are a bad defense but if you’re looking to shoot the moon, they could be a team that you can grab for a $0 FAAB bid…The Bengals have Mitchell Trubisky this weekend at home. Cincy can play defense; look at what they did on Monday night. I don’t have a ton of confidence in them but if you’re desperate then they have a good matchup.
Your feedback is always welcome. Please make sure to follow me on Twitter @bankster17, and keep an eye out for my DFS column (The Hail Mary) on the main page Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.
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