The Waiver Wire – Week 11
November 13, 2017 | Doug Shain
The Waiver Wire – Week 11
Every league is different so doing a generic waiver wire article is difficult because nothing in season long fantasy is one size fits all. Lucky for you, nothing about what I do is generic. Every week I’m going to bust out a list of players that are available on some percentage of waiver wires (I try to keep the list to guys under 50% owned). I’m going to tell you if you need to run and get them right now, keep an eye out for them, or run and hide. I’ll also make sure to give you a streaming options if you’re like me and only draft one QB, TE, or DEF. I won’t talk about kickers because kickers aren’t real players and you should be ashamed to play in a league that starts one (I’m in two; misery loves company). Before we start, he’s a quick look at the six categories of free agent players that we will be talking about:
Let’s Get Crazy – Players I think can be league difference makers and would spend a significant amount of my budget on
Due Diligence – Players that you should bid on but that I won’t be upset if I miss out on
Optical Illusions – Players that are intriguing but who may not be exactly what they seem
Look But Don’t Touch – Players that I’ll be keeping an eye on but am not yet ready to commit to; grab if you have a very deep bench
Dream the Stream – Quarterbacks, Tight Ends, and Defenses that have solid matchups this week and are worth a stream
Just in Case –players under 85% ownership that should be owned in all leagues
Now that that business is out of the way, it’s on with the show!
|Let’s Get Crazy||Damien Williams (MIA) – 33%||Marqise Lee (JAX) – 59%||Greg Olsen (CAR) – 58%|
|Danny Woodhead (BAL) – 35%||Corey Davis (TEN) – 48%|
|Corey Coleman (CLE) – 22%|
|Due Diligence||Jacoby Brissett (IND) – 20%||Rex Burkhead (NE) – 9%||Terrance Williams (DAL) – 26%||Charles Clay (BUF) – 43%||Los Angeles Chargers – 6%|
|Mitchell Trubisky (CHI) – 5%||Austin Ekeler (LAC) – 2%||Josh Gordon (CLE) – 33%|
|Kenny Golladay (DET) – 7%|
|Jamaal Williams (GB) – 4%|
|Brandon LaFell (CIN) – 3%|
|Latavius Murray (MIN) – 43%|
|Dion Lewis (NE) – 56%|
|Optical Illusion||Kenny Britt (CLE) – 16%||Garrett Celek (SF) – 2%|
|Keelan Cole (JAX) – 0%|
|Maurice Harris (WSH) – 0%|
|Look But Don’t Touch||Teddy Bridgewater (MIN) – 8%||Devontae Booker (DEN) – 8%||Dede Westbrook (JAX) – 21%|
|Dontrelle Inman (CHI) – 1%|
|Martavis Bryant (PIT) – 43%|
|Chester Rogers (IND) – 0%|
|Chris Godwin (TB) – 1%|
|Dream the Stream||Jay Cutler (MIA) – 17%||Marcedes Lewis (JAX) – 3%||Cleveland Browns – 1%|
|Blaine Gabbert (ARI) – 0%|
|Just in Case||Isaiah Crowell (CLE) – 77%||Sterling Shepard (NYG) – 79%||Austin Seferian-Jenkins (NYJ) – 76%|
|Duke Johnson (CLE) – 73%||Robby Anderson (NYJ) – 79%||Jared Cook (OAK) – 70%|
|Robert Woods (LAR) – 71%|
Let’s Get Crazy
We are down to the last week of byes so getting that depth is going to become less and less necessary. At this point in the year we are going to try to find players that can make or break our fantasy playoffs. At this point there are no QB that fit that bill as almost every QB that you’d want to own is sitting at well over 85% owned. There will be a few guys I’ll talk about for 2 QB leagues later on, but nobody that we have to run out and grab in a traditional 12 team league…I’m still not convinced that Kenyan Drake is going to outproduce Damien Williams, so if you have the space I’d love to go ahead and grab the veteran. He matched Drake in production in their first week in the backfield together and when crunch time rolls around you know that Adam Gase is going to give it to the guy with experience. He’s not a league winning play but if you’re stuck at RB he’s a solid PPR option…Danny Woodhead could be the RB that ends up being a league winning play. There are rumblings that he’s going to take over the every down job as soon as this weekend. I find that hard to believe with how well Alex Collins and Buck Allen are playing but we’ve seen Woodhead take that lead before and he’s always productive. At the very least he’s a PPR flex-worthy option that should be the goal line back from the get go. I’ve already stashed him in my 2 QB, double flex league and I suggest you do the same if he’s still available…There’s not a ton of sure things at WR right now but Marqise Lee sure seems like the real deal down in Jacksonville. He’s been so good that the Jags didn’t feel the need to activate Dede Westbrook for the second week in a row despite his apparent good health. Coincidently, Lee as a TD in each of his last two games. He’s not going to be a WR1 at any point this year but he is a solid WR3 that will help you a ton in PPR…Corey Davis is getting the looks from Mariota, and although he has yet to have a monster game he’s in the mix and has the talent to break out. He could continue to play as he’s been playing, but he’s got the potential to bust out for a huge last month and a half to the season. He was about a yard away from a TD this weekend the he ended up fumbling out the back of the end zone. If he scores there then we are looking at 14+ PPR points this week and probably having a different conversation about him. One more thing to note, Rishard Matthews has a couple of drops this weeks, so it wouldn’t shock me to see a target or two go towards Davis that was going to Matthews…Every week it seems like a new Browns WR emerges but I think that changes once Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon are active and ready to roll. We are a couple of weeks away from that happening but this Browns duo could end up being huge down the stretch if they get in rhythm with the revolving door of QB’s in Cleveland. They both come from a pass heavy Baylor offense and if Hue Jackson realizes this and opens up his passing game, they could be a lot of fun for owners…We are now about two weeks away from a Greg Olsen return and yet he’s still less than 60% owned. As I said at the top, byes aren’t really an issue after this next week (and three of the four teams on a bye in Week 11 are garbage so they really shouldn’t matter as of now). Kill a bench spot and go grab Olsen. The Panthers are dying for a reliable targets; Olsen is just that. He will immediately vault into the top 5 TE discussion the second he’s activated from the IR.
You’re not touching Brissett or Trubisky in a 1 QB league, or at least you shouldn’t, but both are slowly becoming reliable backup options in 2 QB leagues. They make perfect fill-ins if you had a guy like Rodgers or are stuck with a Joe Flacco type. At the very least they need to be on your bench in case an injury happens. Brissett is the home run option, while Trubisky is the safer play. Neither will carry you to a league title, while both can keep you competitive if you’re starting them…The deactivization of Mike Gillislee in Week 10 says all you need to know about Burkhead. He’s going to see about half the targets out of the backfield (splitting with James White) and he should get all the goal line work as neither White or Dion Lewis are cut out for that role. He will never be totally reliable (because Belichick) but he’s a guy you can use in a pinch. Case in point, an opening drive TD reception in Week 10 (yes, I’m writing this as the game is taking place; gotta beat Pat Mayo to the market with this article, which I won’t because I refuse to post until the Monday night game is past halftime)…If you own Melvin Gordon, you have to go grab Austin Ekeler. For some reason the Chargers hate giving Gordon a ton of work and in Week 9 they even trolled themselves when they gave Ekeler meaningful carries when trying to salt the game away. While Ekeler predictably fumbled and proved that Anthony Lynn is as bad as Mike McCoy when it comes to using Gordon properly, I doubt he learned his lesson. All he’s going to see is the big yardage and 2 TD game and continue to use Ekeler while Gordon rots on the sideline. Yes, I’m a bitter Gordon owner who happens to have Ekeler on my bench. My total distaste for Chargers coaching aside, this is the time of year when we handcuff our studs if they are backed up with guys who could come in and play well. Ekeler can do that…If the injuries to Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery are serious, then Jamaal Williams should get all the carries he can handle for Green Bay. Anyone in that position is worthy of a flex look every week for sure. Keep an eye out for any news regarding Jones and TMont prior to your waiver run…Latavius Murray and Dion Lewis are part of RBBC, neither of which is getting enough looks to be considered lock starts every week. On the other hand, both should be owned in deeper leagues…Once Dallas figures out how to play without Ezekiel Elliott (and when Tyron Smith returns to the lineup) they should be back to playing Cowboys football; running to set up the pass. Williams is one of the more underrated WR2 in football and should be on a team. He won’t be productive every week but here and there he should be worth a look in the right matchup…Kenny Golladay finally returned to the Lions. Not coincidently, Marvin Jones had one of his worst games of the season. I love Golladay’s talent and he should immediately become a threat in the red zone. They call the kid Mini-tron for a reason. He could be one of the first in-season post hype sleepers in history. I like his prospects for a strong finish to the season…Brandon LaFell isn’t sexy but he produces. This week’s matchup was outstanding and he took advantage. That’s how it’s going to be with him; production when he should. He’s not an every week play but he should be on a roster…I can’t believe Charles Clay is only 43% owned. He was back in the lineup this weekend, and although he didn’t produce that was more a product of everyone in Buffalo being terrible and not just him being bad. He was one of the best TE on the season when he got hurt and it’s not a shock that the Bills were significantly better when he was their top target. They’ll figure that out soon enough and Clay will be back to seeing 6+ targets per game very soon. He’s a top 12 TE for me…I stand by my belief that the Chargers are good defense. They can rush the passer and they are solid in the secondary. Despite Jacksonville completely abandoning the run in Week 10, the Chargers gave up only 17 points and very little meaningful production to Chargers pass catchers. They are probably a team you can play the matchups with but if your bench is deep they are worth a grab as your second defense.
Every week someone new steps up for the Browns. I have no faith that Kenny Britt will be productive again this year. He’s been awful for nine weeks, one semi-good game in Week 10 isn’t going to sway that…If you watched the Jacksonville game in Week 10 all you heard was the commentary team talking about how Keelan Cole is the deep threat for this team. That’s all well and good except he has suspect hands and the Jags have a guy by the name of Dede Westbrook to fill that role very soon…I’ve never heard of Maurice Harris prior to Week 10 and I bet we never hear of him again. I don’t care how great he looked on that one TD catch. Remember the Falcons WR Marvin Hall? Of course you don’t. Mic dropped…Garrett Celek was productive because he played the Giants. He was not productive because he’s good. He just had the best game of his career. Don’t count on that ever happening again. He’s not a top 24 TE, let alone a top 12 TE.
Look But Don’t Touch
If Case Keenum didn’t look so good in Week 10 then I think Bridgewater would have started Week 11. Case in point; after Keenum threw for 4 TD, but then proceeded to throw 2 picks, Mike Zimmer had Bridgewater warming up. Minnesota wants him to be their QB but they can’t make that move with the way Keenum is playing right now. This is a 7-2 team that’s going to the playoffs. They aren’t benching the guy who led them there unless they lose a couple of games in a row and DET gets on their tails. Keep an eye on the situation but don’t waste a roster spot unless you’re in a deep 2 QB league…CJ Anderson looks terrible this year. Devontae Booker has looked somewhat respectable. At some point the Broncos are going to fall out of contention and will want to see what they have in the second year player. He was dynamic at Utah and given the chance he could be a flex-worthy play in the NFL…There are, as always, a lot of intriguing WR options to keep an eye on…Dontrelle Inman had a nice game for the Bears in Week 10 and could end up as their top WR option when all is said and done. He was a very productive player for the Chargers when given the snaps and in Chicago he has no competition. He’s a borderline add for me right now, but I want one more week of 5+ targets to lock that in for me, and if I lose out on him then so be it…Dede Westbrook looked like he was on the fast track to activation and then he was inactive the last two weeks. Until the Jags figure out what they want to do with him, I’ll hold…Martavis Bryant was targeted on a couple of long passes against the Colts and that was very promising. I’m not running out to get him but if he continues to see snaps then his talent is too good to keep on the waiver wire. He could have a Josh Gordon-like impact if he gets his head on straight and is allowed to let loose…Chester Rogers is a WR that the Colts love but they’ve never found a spot for him. With TY Hilton limping a bit in Week 10, Rodger was given a shot and he looked great. I want one more week to see what he can do but if he’s a part of the game plan coming out of the bye in Week 12 then I’ll be a believer…Chris Godwin had 6 catches in Week 10 with Mike Evans suspended. He looked good enough to probably replace Adam Humphries as the WR3 for the Bucs. Is that enough to add him? Not in my mind as long as Jameis Winston is injured.
Dream the Stream
The Buccaneers are really bad on the road. Jay Cutler can do business against bad teams when he’s at home. Look at what he did to the Raiders in Week 9 when he had his full complement of weapons. I think he could be a top 12 QB in Week 11; definitely worth a stream if you’ve been riding Cam Newton (who is on a bye)…Blaine Gabbert is a joke, but so is the Texans pass defense. At the very least, he’s got a ton of talent around him and the matchup is good. I mean, if you’re going to take a shot why not in this situation, right?…Travis Kelce faces the Giants and I can’t use him as a stream play since he’s the second best TE in football. Marcedes Lewis is going up against the Browns and while not quite as bad as NYG against TE, they are pretty darn bad. I think Lewis gets in the end zone this weekend…If the Jaguars are going to do what they did in Week 10 (totally abandon the run and let Blake Bortles win the game), then I really like the Browns underrated defense to come through with a big game. An ideal situation would be cold weather in Cleveland for this one, totally throwing the Jags off their game. They could make a totally underrated stream play.
Just in Case
I must be in a Browns mood because I’ve talked about almost all of their skill players this weekend. How Crowell and Duuuuuuuuke are under 80% owned is amazing to me. The Crow has been eating over the last two weeks, averaging over 100 yards a game with a TD in each. It’s not like these were easy matchups either as CLE played against the Vikings and Lions. He’s finally showing the skill set that made him a 3rd round pick in fantasy this year…Duke Johnson is a PPR machine and is flex-worthy no matter how good The Crow is playing…Week 10 proved how valuable Sterling Shepard is going to be the rest of this year. He has about half of the Giants receiving yards against the 49ers to go along with double digit receptions…What does Robby Anderson have to do to get owned by more than 79% of teams? He has scored in four straight weeks, and in the fifth week he had 12 targets. He’s a legit WR2, yet I bet he gets dropped in some leagues this week with the Jets on a bye…Robert Woods is a WR2, at worst, for the rest of the year. Goff trusts him and Woods is rewarding that trust. If he’s available in your league, pay up to grab him…ASJ and Jared Cook see a ton of volume. Their ownership is a joke right now. If you don’t have a Gronk, Ertz, or Kelce type, you should strongly consider both of these guys.
Your feedback is always welcome. Please make sure to follow me on Twitter @bankster17, and keep an eye out for my DFS column (The Hail Mary) on the main page Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.
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