The Waiver Wire – Week 10
November 6, 2017 | Doug Shain
The Waiver Wire – Week 10
Every league is different so doing a generic waiver wire article is difficult because nothing in season long fantasy is one size fits all. Lucky for you, nothing about what I do is generic. Every week I’m going to bust out a list of players that are available on some percentage of waiver wires (I try to keep the list to guys under 50% owned). I’m going to tell you if you need to run and get them right now, keep an eye out for them, or run and hide. I’ll also make sure to give you a streaming options if you’re like me and only draft one QB, TE, or DEF. I won’t talk about kickers because kickers aren’t real players and you should be ashamed to play in a league that starts one (I’m in two; misery loves company). Before we start, he’s a quick look at the six categories of free agent players that we will be talking about:
Let’s Get Crazy – Players I think can be league difference makers and would spend a significant amount of my budget on
Due Diligence – Players that you should bid on but that I won’t be upset if I miss out on
Optical Illusions – Players that are intriguing but who may not be exactly what they seem
Look But Don’t Touch – Players that I’ll be keeping an eye on but am not yet ready to commit to; grab if you have a very deep bench
Dream the Stream – Quarterbacks, Tight Ends, and Defenses that have solid matchups this week and are worth a stream
Just in Case –players under 85% ownership that should be owned in all leagues
Now that that business is out of the way, it’s on with the show!
|Let’s Get Crazy||Josh McCown (NYJ) – 34%||Marlon Mack (IND) – 50%||Robby Anderson (NYJ) – 53%||Greg Olsen (CAR) – 49%||New Orleans Saints – 43%|
|Ryan Fitzpatrick (TB) – 1%||Damien Williams (MIA) – 33%||Dede Westbrook (JAX) – 28%|
|Danny Woodhead (BAL) – 27%||Robert Woods (LAR) – 33%|
|Corey Davis (TEN) – 45%|
|Due Diligence||Matt Forte (NYJ) – 42%||Travis Benjamin (LAC) – 17%||Vernon Davis (WSH) – 60%|
|Alfred Morris (DAL) – 58%||Josh Doctson (WSH) – 29%|
|Rex Burkhead (NE) – 8%||Danny Amendola (NE) – 49%|
|Kenyan Drake (MIA) – 53%||Marqise Lee (JAX) – 37%|
|Curtis Samuel (CAR) – 9%|
|Terrance Williams (DAL) – 10%|
|Josh Gordon (CLE) – 34%|
|Optical Illusion||Jacoby Brissett (IND) – 24%||Corey Clement (PHI) – 1%|
|Peyton Barber (TB) – 0%|
|Look But Don’t Touch||Geno Smith (NYG) – 0%||Devontae Booker (DEN) – 4%||Tre McBride (CHI) – 0%||Los Angeles Chargers – 5%|
|Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) – 13%||Tavarres King (NYG) – 0%|
|Deonte Thompson (BUF) – 4%|
|Zay Jones (BUF) – 9%|
|Dream the Stream||CJ Beathard (SF) – 3%||George Kittle (SF) – 13%||Detroit Lions – 55%|
|Eric Ebron (DET) – 31%||Pittsburgh Steelers – 64%|
|Tennessee Titans – 21%|
Let’s Get Crazy
Should I be lazy and just copy/paste my Jets rant from last week? Nah, I’ll save the time by paraphrasing. Josh McCown has now locked himself in as a low end QB1/high end QB2 in 12+ team leagues. I don’t know what else he has to do to get your attention. He may have only thrown for 140 yards and 1 TD in Week 9 but he added his third rushing TD of the year as well. He’s not always going to be a monster but he’s got a legitimate offense surrounding him and his team’s defense (not very good) is going to mean he’s always going to have to throw to keep the Jets in the game. Robby Anderson has now put up four straight promising weeks, with a TD in three straight and 12 targets in the game where he didn’t score. For some reason teams just can’t stop him when he streaks down the right sideline. In the backfield the duo of Bilal Powell and Matt Forte looks legitimate, but it’s clear to me that the coaching staff wants Forte to have the ball in his hands at the goal line. He may not see 18 touches again any time soon but with 12-15 touches he can at least be flex-worthy in deeper leagues. Finally, if you’re streaming TE and in one of the 22% of leagues where The Syndrome (Austin Seferian-Jenkins) is available, you don’t need to stream any more. Go get him and lock him into your lineup. Weekly Jets rant over (get them all over 50% and I’ll stop doing this every week)…Call me crazy but I actually think that Ryan Fitzpatrick will be just fine replacing Jameis Winston. He’s got serious revenge game narrative potential this week, and with Winston shut down for “a few weeks” he could be worth a lot when Mike Evans comes off his one game suspension. If I’m being honest, I don’t think we see Winston again this year. If the Bucs lose while he’s out then there’s no reason to bring him back with the playoffs out of reach, while if they win with Fitzpatrick to get back into the playoff hunt they are not going to remove him as starter. This is a rest of the season type move if you make it in my estimation…While Frank Gore took the lead at RB for the Colts in Week 9, it was Marlon Mack who lead the team in RB snaps the past few weeks. He’s the future at this position and with the Colts going nowhere, it’s high time that Mack gets more of the work. You may have to be a little patient if you pick him up but you won’t regret it come fantasy playoff time…Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams appear to be splitting the workload after the Dolphins traded Jay Ajayi to Philadelphia but as long as Miami is in the playoff hunt, I think the veteran Williams is the one you’re going to want on your team. He’s the better receiver and the back Miami will turn to in the red zone. They made that quite clear when he scored the first TD of the game for them in Week 9. Williams will never be a workhorse back but he should see enough touches to make him a viable flex play, especially in PPR…Danny Woodhead could be back as soon as Week 11. If Baltimore is going to take the time to activate him then they are going to use him. Alex Collins is allergic to the end zone, so it looks like Woodhead will be eating into Buck Allen’s work. That means about 5 targets, 5 carries, and red zone touches with some upside. As long as Woodhead doesn’t get hurt he will have some value in season long leagues…If you’re looking for this year’s rookie to come on like Odell Bekcham did in his rookie season, then may I offer up Corey Davis and Dede Westbrook? Davis was the first WR taken in this year’s draft and he’s looked good in his two games so far this year. He has the flair for the dramatic like OBJ and as soon as Mariota gets comfortable with him he’s going to start seeing a number of downfield looks…Westbrook was a monster this preseason and he should get snaps right away for the Jaguars. Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee have been solid in trying to replace Allen Robinson but it’s Westbrook that is the most talented WR of the group. He may not see the volume that Lee sees but he will be the home run threat that Jacksonville lacks. I grabbed him in both of my season long leagues last week and I suggest you do the same before he gets activated for the Jags Week 11 game against a vulnerable Chargers team coming east to once again play an early start game…Robert Woods just keeps chugging along for the rams. His long TD this weekend was kind of a fluke but the rest of his workload is not. He’s the guy that Jared Goff looks to first and he’s the guy that will continue to see the targets. He’s not a flashy guy but as you saw in Week 9, there are some big games in his repertoire…The window to grab Greg Olsen before he comes back to Carolina is closing. He will be the main target for Cam Newton as soon as he’s eligible to return to the team…The Saints are a starting DST going forward, and have been for the last month or so. They are not winning games anymore on the arm of Drew Brees, but instead with a stifling defense. Grab them and stop worrying about streaming.
I’m putting Alfred Morris on this list without Darren McFadden because it’s become pretty evident that he’s the guy if/when Ezekiel Elliott gets suspended. I’m done investing heavily in him because I don’t know if Elliott will ever get suspended, but if you can grab him on the cheap he’s definitely worth a look…I’m choosing Damien Williams over Kenyan Drake for now but I reserve the right to change that at a later date…We still don’t know who will get all the Chris Hogan targets but Rex Burkhead was productive for the few games he played with Hogan, so I expect him to be the same without Hogan…Travis Benjamin, Josh Doctson, and Danny Amendola all make a return appearance on this list. Two of the guys didn’t play this weekend due to byes (Benjamin and Amendola) so we don’t have any clearer picture on their role going forward. Regardless, both should be owned…In a perfect world the Redskins would like Josh Doctson to be their WR1. So far he’s shown that he doesn’t have the hands for it, but if you’ve watched him play in college you know that he actually does. We saw another glimpse in Week 9 with the big catch the put Washington in position to score the winning TD against Seattle. The more confidence that Kirk Cousins gains in Doctson, the quicker he ascends to the top of the depth chart…Curtis Samuel was one of only three Panthers to catch a pass in Week 9. They traded Kelvin Benjamin to get this kid some extra work. At some point they are going to start taking some deep shots with him. He’s not going to be a consistent player but he could have a Tyreek Hill, anything can happen kind of feel to him once he gets in space…Terrance Williams got a little dinged up in Week 9 but if he’s ok then he needs to be on more than 10% of rosters. He’s been in this offense for years now and we’ve seen him come on in spots. Dez Bryant got injured in Week 9 as well and if he misses any time then Williams will jump into that WR1 role. Get him now and then drop if you have to if Dez is healthy enough to play in Week 10…It seems like every week a new guy steps up for the Jaguars. This week it was Marqise Lee. I have to admit, he looked really good. He and Dede Westbrook could make for a very good combination going forward. I’d rather take a shot on Westbrook’s upside but Lee is far from a bad consolation prize…Did you hear that Josh Gordon get reinstated on a conditional basis by the NFL? Of course you did. He’s already up to 34% ownership. Get on him now before he comes back and sets the league on fire. He’s a league-winning talent that you can always drop if he gets pinched again…I don’t trust Jordan Reed to stay healthy. Vernon Davis looked great as the starter this week in Seattle. As long as he starts, he should be a top 12 TE.
There’s a reason that Jacoby Brissett was a streaming option and nothing else in last week’s article. He’s not a very good NFL QB except in the best of matchups. Week 9 was the best of matchups. Week 10 is not. He should be owned in 2 QB leagues but anywhere else he should stay on the wire…The Eagles didn’t sign LeGarrette Blount and trade for Jay Ajayi to give Corey Clement all the meaningful touches on a regular basis. They were slaughtering Denver so Clement was a guy they felt comfortable using to keep their top two RB fresh. I don’t see any way that Clement becomes a useful cog in this machine without some kind of injury to Blount or Ajayi…Peyton Barber lead the Buccaneers in carries in Week 9. Tampa Bay was also trounced by the Saints. In a more competitive game I don’t think we’ll see Barber on the field for anything more than a breather for Doug Martin.
Look But Don’t Touch
Geno Smith may be getting a chance at QB if Bob McAdoo is to be believed. He said he’s going to take a look at some of the younger guys on the team and clarified that no position was safe. He’s a guy to watch in a 2 QB league if he does indeed take over for Eli Manning…At some point it’s got to be Garoppolo time, right? He’s got no weapons but he’s coming from a great system to a great offensive-minded head coach. Look at how productive CJ Beathard has been with the garbage he’s been playing with. Garoppolo should be able to equal or surpass that…I don’t know what’s going on in the Denver backfield other than everyone is getting a few carries and looking terrible. Maybe it’s time to give the kid a look to see what he can do. Keep an eye on him to see how things play out going forward. I would venture a guess that if Paxton Lynch is named the starting QB, then we will see a lot of Booker at RB…Since the Bears didn’t play this weekend, I’m still going to keep an eye on Tre McBride to see if he and Trubisky have developed a long standing rapport…In the ever spinning roulette wheel of WR for the Giants, Tavarres King stepped up this weekend. He would have had an even better game had Eli Manning been able to hit him when he was wide open for a couple of TD. I’m intrigued but not ready to buy…Deonte Thompson and Zay Jones both looked good in a loss to the Jets in Week 10. I want to see how their target share looks once Kelvin Benjamin finds his way on the field. I think Zay Jones is actually safe here and it’s Thompson who is in trouble, despite Thompson looking better the last two weeks. Benjamin and Thompson both kind of do the same thing and Buffalo didn’t trade for Benjamin to have him sit…I still say that the Chargers aren’t half bad on defense. They’re like a west coast version of the Saints; a team that everyone overlooks but that still is performing well. They’ve got a couple of pass rushers win Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, while the back end is playing great in the absence of Jason Verrett. They’ve got some plus matchups coming up and at the very least should be a streaming option or a second defense if you’re in a really deep league.
Dream the Stream
The Giants are terrible all around and it wouldn’t shock me if the 49ers take it to them in Week 10. I have no issue if you’re desperate using a CJ Beathard/George Kittle stack to attack New York’s weakness. Despite their losing ways, Beathard hasn’t been a terrible fantasy option and if you’re in a pickle (perhaps you start Alex Smith, Derek Carr, or Carson Wentz) he might be your best option. Look at how well you did if you streamed Jacoby Brissett last weekend…Eric Ebron faces the Browns. All the TE play well against the Browns…The Lions defense faces the Browns. All the defense play well against the Browns…PIT and TEN both have excellent matchups this weekend against Indy and the Bengals. Cincy, in particular, look lost right now and if AJ Green is suspended (he should be) then they may struggle to score a single point.
Just in Case
Ben Roethlisberger has lost a step. He still showed be owned in all but the shallowest leagues…Tyrod Taylor is better than Big Ben, so he should be owned everywhere as well. He’s only going to get better with Kelvin Benjamin in the fold…Marvin Jones has turned into a target hog. He’s a WR3 at worst right now, and Devante Parker has his best buddy back throwing him the ball so he’s in that WR3 discussion as well…Jared Cook is a top 10 TE and has no business being on any waiver wire…The Vikings are a top defense. I don’t care that they were just on a bye, they are not a defense you should drop. Once the weather gets colder they are only going to get better. Seriously, what team in that division scares you if you own the Minnesota defense? They are an every week starter for sure.
Your feedback is always welcome. Please make sure to follow me on Twitter @bankster17, and keep an eye out for my DFS column (The Hail Mary) on the main page Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.
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